giulio

I believe this does NOT refer to Fairfax ownership in the Meadow UK. FF Meadow Holdings is a sub of Fairfax, 100% owned through its various insurance companies as you listed. FF Meadow then holds a minority stake in Meadow UK, the actual company. Best, G

108K shares were bought back and canceled in October. Max price paid $15. https://www.sedi.ca/sedi/SVTItdSelectIssuer?locale=en_CA

Good for long term holders that some "investors" buy or sell without any regards for intrinsic value

I am of the opposite view. Given how hard they worked to set it up, the difficult regulatory environment and their long term view of India, I believe they will hold on to shares for a long time. They might sell some if valuation gets truly outrageous but they'll keep a majority. Possibly they will increase their stake if allowed to. Best, G

Thanks for posting this @SafetyinNumbers. Happy to share my analysis. I review my ffh valuation annually when they release the annual report. As I stated in the other thread, I like to use look through earnings and at fy23 I had IV at around $1800. Using Book value I get $1500 but I am aware buybacks are distorting the calculations. To reach the lower bound of IV the index addition would need to generate a 20% pop in price. If it happens, I WILL NOT sell any shares. The reason being that I would expect ffh to grow IV over time. Simple as that. At $1800 I might trim the position a bit as there are a couple of interesting ideas I would like to add to. Best, G

Small add PRM

And it is still VERY cheap! Probably their 50+% stake in BIAL covers today's market cap of $2.2B. Get the rest for free. Btw I just read some Marval fund letters and surely Ben Watsa shares his father optimism re: India and the investment opportunities there. Worth a read! Best, G

WTF did I just read? @berkshiremystery are you looking for the microstrategy thread?

Evo, psh, bat

Couldn't agree more! @LC at YE 23, my estimates of look-through earnings were around 135USD per share. This excludes investments gains (both derivates and sales). LOts of moving parts of course, especially this year. I think 10x is too low but I am comfortable using 13x given their Indian exposure, fixed income allocation, growing income from consolidated subs and associates, the possibility of repurchasing minorities stakes and ongoing buybacks. This is why I think it is still cheap. At USD1800 maybe I'll need to do more work Best, G

Is this adjusted for their NON mark to market investments? What about earnings multiple? I still think it's cheap, I have been adding recently. G

It looks to me as people are assuming that ffh could drop 50%+ in one single session. What could trigger such event? Fraud accusations? Insufficient/overstated reserves? What's the probability of that happening? Why would a thoughtful, concentrated investor, having followed the company for many years, not being able to exit at a smaller loss? Btw, Thank you @SafetyinNumbers and @Parsad for sharing your thoughts. And congratulations on the terrific results!! G

I can't quote a source but if iirc markel and fairfax had some kind of cross shareholding. A member of the markel family sat on fairfax board and vice-versa. At some point due to regulation/competition they decided to sell down their stakes and leave their board seats. Maybe @Parsad has a better recollection of events.

UMG, EVO, PSH

https://www.ft.com/content/398fde10-6e63-4b01-b834-1897d6265dcd?desktop=true&segmentId=7c8f09b9-9b61-4fbb-9430-9208a9e233c8#myft:notification:daily-email:content Interesting article, it gives some context on FIH decision to sell their NSE stake. Prem mentioned the spike in options trading at the agm. I still wish they kept it though, same thesis as their IIFL companies' one but a better industry... G

Quick answer is = a lot. The multiple you pay goes down quickly even with small pricing/volume increments, potentially cutting the entry multiple in half over 4 years (just done a quick calculation on excel so I might be wrong). As a reference point TransDigm routinely pays about 15x EBITDA for acquisitions. The real question is if this pricing power is real. Is there any evidence of this company consistently raising prices without losing volumes/customers? Why can they do it? Why have they not done it so far? Can they defend their position? A high ROCE is a good starting point for quality. What's the reinvestment opportunity? I would thoroughly examine these questions first. If you are satisfied with the answers you can pay a very high multiple and still do very well. being value focused I would capped it at 20x. But it really depends on the opportunity. G

USD670 million pre-tax excluding shares consideration. 2.4x the carrying value at march 31st. $18 per share pre-tax "emerging" value...don't tell muddy!

https://www.wsj.com/finance/regulation/home-insurance-premiums-surge-states-approve-8656877d?mod=itp_wsj,djemITP_h It is not just storms and hurricanes, don't forget wildfires! So far it has been a busy season and it could get worse in the coming months. G

for those looking for more info on executives/directors comp, you should search the attached file in sedar+. the one I have is from last year, there should be an updated version. IIRC executives have a low salary, max ~1M, and they receive a 100-200% bonus part cash and part in options. the amount is at the discretion of the comp committee. options have a 15-year maturity and exercise price is the closing market price of shares at grant date. I might be wrong! G management_info_circular.pdf

not a great show by SEBI. Similar to when the German regulatory went against the FT instead of Wirecard.

I don't think they had much choice. They HAD to get to 40% holding within 5 years of their investment. It was disclosed in their 23AR as posted above.

from the AR23

At one point it was trading at less than 0.4 BV, probably 3 years ago. It's the second largest bank in Italy. Higher rates, incredibly low starting valuation and Orcel contributed to a spectacular performance. I am impressed by how prepared he was, he saw a lot of value and has executed flawlessly so far. His words re: capital allocation are reassuring as well. He won't do a deal just for the sake of empire building. At this valuation ucg is buying back 25% of daily volumes. I guess it's one of those Einhorn stocks!

UniCredit (UCG) bought back 2.7% of its shares in 6 weeks. An additional €1.5B authorized and I expect more to come in Q3-Q4. It trades at 5.5x this year's expected earnings.