Luke

I sold some AMR and also bought more HCC

I added to Warrior Met Coal and Valaris

Yeah saw that, very interesting...

Nice book, enjoy the reading!

Charles M. Lieber (born 1959)[1] is an American chemist, inventor, nanotechnologist, and writer. In 2011, Lieber was named the leading chemist in the world for the decade 2000–2010 by Thomson Reuters, based on the impact of his scientific publications.[2] He is known for his contributions to the synthesis, assembly and characterization of nanoscale materials and nanodevices, the application of nanoelectronic devices in biology, and as a mentor to numerous leaders in nanoscience.[3] Lieber, a professor at Harvard University, has published over 400 papers in peer-reviewed journals and has edited and contributed to many books on nanoscience.[4] Until 2020 he was the chair of the department of chemistry and chemical biology, and held a joint appointment in that department and the school of engineering and applied sciences as the Joshua and Beth Friedman University Professor. He is the principal inventor on over fifty issued US patents and applications, and joined nanotechnology company Nanosys as a scientific co-founder in 2001 and Vista Therapeutics in 2007.[5] In 2012, Lieber was awarded the Wolf Prize in Chemistry in a special ceremony held at the Israeli Knesset.[6][7]

When stock market is up: Trump Bull Market When stock market is down: Joe Biden Bear Market xD

Good comment on the timeline: It takes ~30 days for containers to go from China to LA. 4 5 to Houston by sea, 45 to Chicago by train. 55 to New York by sea. Around that time (it's already started to happen) trucking work is going to dry up. Warehouses will start doing layoffs because no labor is needed to unloac containers and some products will be out of stock, reducing the need for shipping labor. All this will start in the Los Angeles area. After about 2 weeks, it'|l start hitting Chicago and Houston Let's say the White House, after 3 weeks, changes its mind, on May 31st *This isn't working out like we thought it would. Tariffs back to 0." Let's say China says "bygones be bygones we'll go back to how things were* Let's say every factory in China that got screwed by their orders being cancelled says the same thing "no problem, we' make and ship" The problem is, even under the most favorable conditions of China and the factories restarting economic ties as though nothing happened, it will be at least another 30 days before economic activity is revived And that's just in LA In Chicago/Houston, you'll need to wait another 45 days New York, at that point, will st ill be getting containers from before April 10th, they wil then have 50 days (May 31 minus April 10) of zero economic activity at the ports, in trucking of Chinese goods, in warehousing. The whole situation is a bit like lockdowns. Once you shut down, it takes a long time ta get economic activity back to where it was, if you ever can And again, this assumes, that China and 'ts factories, which make things you can't buy elsewhere, will start right back up again as though nothing happened, which is unlikely It's almost like we're speeding towards a prick wall but the driver of the car doesn't see it yet.

And tariffs are out again xD China stocks booming.

Some good comments:

https://asiatimes.com/2025/04/trump-trade-war-its-worse-than-a-crime-its-a-blunder/ Unfortunately, there is a difference between losing and losing even worse. There is a price to pay for not going down without a fight. Trump’s economic war with China is a blunder of historic, perhaps civilizational, proportions. Because a second-place America is so distasteful to certain parts of the US psyche, Trump is obliged to choose losing even worse. On some level, America rationally understands that it cannot win with the hand it holds and because of that, the only option is to chimp out, throw everything at the wall – chip sanctions, tariffs, alliances, libelous accusations – and lose spectacularly, irrationally and cathartically. Apologies MAGA folks, Trump is not playing 5D chess. America will soon fold in its foolish economic war with China. In the next few months, large swathes of American industry will shut down as prices of intermediate goods surge and supply of rare earth and other crucial inputs dries up. Store shelves will empty out and inflation will skyrocket. Whoever believed that deficit economies with a deficient industrial base had leverage will eat humble pie. Whatever face-saving climb-down Chinese President Xi Jinping offers President Trump will be understood by all to mean the US has surrendered global economic leadership to China. Treasuries will embed a permanent “moron premium”, American universities will fall in the league tables and America’s global alliances will come undone – slowly at first, then suddenly. This is, mind you, the best-case scenario. Permanent damage has already been done. The worst-case scenario will veer off from the blunder of a trade war to something more sinister and criminal. We can all use our imaginations for the possible combinations and permutations of worst-case outcomes. How bad would surrendering economic leadership to China be? Much of it is just accepting reality. China is already a far bigger economy than the US (see here). People who insist otherwise have just led the US into an unwinnable trade war. China already leads in science and technology. No one is denying that America has made a greater contribution to science than China in the past– far greater. It’s just that China will contribute more in the future – far more. Second place is not something that should embarrass any American. The nation still has the magnificent physical endowments that Zeihan correctly points out. It’s just that the people have been run ragged by decades of foreign wars, political capture by capital and political division. Zeihan gets China wrong because he refuses to appreciate the breathtaking leveling up of the nation’s human capital. That is also his blind spot for America, whose human capital has been stagnant at best. Liberated from the burden of being number one, which has largely been a pretense anyway, America can finally surrender to the generosity of providence and do the right thing for its citizens – come home, circle wagons, lick wounds and get around to planting that tree.

Art of the deal! We are going to have a great relationship with President Xi and tariffs will be lower, everyone will be happy!

great ones.

I am buying this book and look forward to reading it!

In the current political climate and geopolitical situation china can IMO outlast the US quite easily with less damage than the US. Why should they try to negotiate with trump, someone who has showed again and again that China is their enemy number one. I think the CCP is at a point where they wont agree to visit the US (look at what happened to selensky last time he came publicly) and i dont think high officials will take any phone calls from trump because its simply a waste of time. The tariffs stand or trump will reduce them, china does not have to do anything for it. Instead they should use the opportunity of the tariff blunder to strengthen their impact in asia and europe (which they seem to do successfully right now) and perhaps increase domestic demand with a stimulus at some point. The US is doing a strategic mistake and why stop them from doing so.

I think it's pretty likely that Trump reduces tariffs by himself without negotiating anything with China; there is no other realistic scenario. After how China was treated, they surely won't invest any more energy in negotiating with that administration.

Insults don't add to your argument. And no word from you about 30 years of new jobs that pay hundreds, if not millions, more than the old manufacturing sector ever could and could pay right now. Seeking cheaper labor globally is a natural result of open markets and due to automatization there simply arent that many well paid jobs anymore. These jobs also wont come back if you onshore manufacturing which is automatized and increasingly so. The problem is that the wealth that is produced simply did not go into MAGA pockets but to WS and a small pool of investors and highly educated workers. And nothing from you about the 50% of the global economy that is dominated by US corporations (in which MAGA voters mostly have no significant stake in and dont get the wealth share) and the US software and services they installed globally and made them the richest country on earth. But chinese who make shoes and iPhones are the problem why you are poor now? The worst offender in what? Making your shoes for cents on the dollar while being poor? They have no competitive semiconductor industry, have a huge part of the population that is significantly poorer than US citizens ever will be... He didnt leave any facts out, you just want to look at the situation one sided and play a victim card in which your country is no victim in. The US is the winner of 80 years post WW2 globalization and enmassed wealth in proportions that where unthinkable, its simply not in the pockets of MAGA voters that got angry and trump fed right into that. The tariffs wont work, trump destroyed decades of US diplomacy, he is in a worse position than china and he has no fundamental knowledge of economics which will lead towards the US being able to provide any better paying jobs to MAGA voters which simply dont exist anymore and cant come back.

I am happy to buy it back again. PDD is so ridiculously cheap and TSMC is qualitatively a way higher asset growing way faster and valuation also not too far off from FFH Cheers!

I sold a lot of Fairfax and added proceeds to PDD and TSMC

I reduced it significantly and have lots of room, no worries right now. Made no losses due to it.

If you disagree that our leaders should be more than they are currently, we have to disagree to disagree. I don't think my comment was absolutely worthless and deranged emotional whining, but frankly I will withdraw from the discussion if you think thats the case. Makes no sense for me to discuss anything with those type of responses. Cheers guys and all the best! Hope you will provide more value than my deranged posts.

And i myself have said pages ago that i appreciate the discussion because it was diverse and intellectually stimulating. Not "Absolutely worthless, emotional raging and whining mixed with derangement inspired doom and gloom" but i guess everyone has their own style on this board.

I have replied i cant take you serious on this reply: "Absolutely worthless, emotional raging and whining mixed with derangement inspired doom and gloom". I appreciate the discussion culture on this board but i have put energy and effort into my posts for @Gregmal to come to his PC to write my reply was absolutely worthless, emotional raging and whining mixed with derangement inspired doom and gloom. I appreciate the reply but frankly thats quite insulting and i dont think worth my effort. I guess those kind of replies are what makes a quality poster, thank you @Gregmal, everyones forum darling and high quality poster.

I could have bet on you coming onto this thread saying this actually Just waiting for @cubsfan to join in again.

That clarifies a lot, thank you for your thoughtful insights.