Luke

I am trying to keep an open mind on this war

Nothing personal, just found it interesting. Found it on his twitter.

https://mearsheimer.substack.com/p/who-caused-the-ukraine-war The alternative argument, which I identify with, and which is clearly the minority view in the West, is that the United States and its allies provoked the war. This is not to deny, of course, that Russia invaded Ukraine and started the war. But the principal cause of the conflict is the NATO decision to bring Ukraine into the alliance, which virtually all Russian leaders see as an existential threat that must be eliminated. NATO expansion, however, is part of a broader strategy that is designed to make Ukraine a Western bulwark on Russia’s border. Bringing Kyiv into the European Union (EU) and promoting a color revolution in Ukraine – turning it into pro-Western liberal democracy – are the other two prongs of the policy. Russia leaders fear all three prongs, but they fear NATO expansion the most. To deal with this threat, Russia launched a preventive war on 24 February 2022. The debate about who caused the Ukraine war recently heated up when two prominent Western leaders – former President Donald Trump and prominent British MP Nigel Farage – made the argument that NATO expansion was the driving force behind the conflict. Unsurprisingly, their comments were met with a ferocious counterattack from defenders of the conventional wisdom. It is also worth noting that the outgoing Secretary General of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg, said twice over the past year that “President Putin started this war because he wanted to close NATO’s door and deny Ukraine the right to choose its own path.” Hardly anyone in the West challenged this remarkable admission by NATO’s head and he did not retract it. My aim here is to provide a primer, which lays out the key points that support the view that Putin invaded Ukraine not because he was an imperialist bent on making Ukraine part of a greater Russia, but mainly because of NATO expansion and the West’s efforts to make Ukraine a Western stronghold on Russia’s border. FIRST, there is simply no evidence from before 24 February 2022 that Putin wanted to conquer Ukraine and incorporate it into Russia. Proponents of the conventional wisdom cannot point to anything Putin wrote or said that indicates he was bent on conquering Ukraine. SECOND, there is no evidence that Putin was preparing a puppet government for Ukraine, cultivating pro-Russian leaders in Kyiv, or pursuing any political measures that would make it possible to occupy the entire country and eventually integrate it into Russia. THIRD, Putin did not have anywhere near enough troops to conquer Ukraine. FOURTH, in the months before the war started, Putin tried to find a diplomatic solution to the brewing crisis. FIFTH, immediately after the war began, Russia reached out to Ukraine to start negotiations to end the war and work out a modus vivendi between the two countries. SIXTH, putting Ukraine aside, there is not a scintilla of evidence that Putin was contemplating conquering any other countries in eastern Europe. SEVENTH, hardly anyone in the West argued that Putin had imperial ambitions from the time he took the reins of power in 2000 until the Ukraine crisis started on 22 February 2014. At that point, he suddenly became an imperial aggressor. Why? Because Western leaders needed a reason to blame him for causing the crisis. Let me shift gears and lay out the THREE MAIN REASONS to think that NATO expansion was the principal cause of the Ukraine war. FIRST, Russian leaders across the board said repeatedly before the war started that they considered NATO expansion into Ukraine to be an existential threat that had to be eliminated. SECOND, a substantial number of influential and highly regarded individuals in the West recognized before the war that NATO expansion – especially into Ukraine – would be seen by Russian leaders as a mortal threat and eventually lead to disaster. THIRD, the centrality of Russia’s profound fear of Ukraine joining NATO is illustrated by two developments that have occurred since the war began. John Joseph Mearsheimer is an American political scientist and international relations scholar. He is the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor at the University of Chicago. Mearsheimer is best known for developing the theory of offensive realism, which describes the interaction between great powers as being primarily driven by the rational desire to achieve regional hegemony in an anarchic international system. In accordance with his theory, Mearsheimer believes that China's growing power will likely bring it into conflict with the United States.

Very exciting stuff...!

Is it a zero?

I bought more PDD, i was happy at 99 USD, now we are at 98 USD. Will i have to buy again tomorrow at 79 USD?

https://hindenburgresearch.com/smci/

Nice! Those are really great mining businesses at single digit earnings that are paying dividends and buybacks, one should do moderately okay here I think.

I bought a natural resource company with limited reserves at 6x 2024 EV/Net income in China with the Ticker PDD.

That said, Russia has an insanely conservative/patriarchal manhood standard, as was posted before, in the military they quite literally beat young soldiers to death or they die during training. Then the legal system has pitfalls, corrupt etc. But that wasn't, IMO, necessarily caused by Putin. Now the war...very tough position for the country but I am following with interest both Ukraine and Russia/general Conflict.

This was posted by the Russian embassy in Berlin a day ago! Mhh, I don't think that's a completely fair statement. Russia always had quite the level of corruption right, both in the Soviet Union but also after with Yeltsin. It was perceived that Putin was a west friendly, more easily controllable and oligarch friendly president which is why he made it where he made it. He must have seen quite a bit as president and seized a lot of control himself, including wealth. In order to shield yourself from the power of the oligarchs you sort of need to become oneself. Then I also don't know how much they know about western involvement in Ukraine and how serious of a threat that actually was. I wouldn't say Putin is bad per see and doesn't care about its country. Very interesting person and I also think we might be surprised in a few decades when more information gets to the surface what really happened under the hood in russia and in this conflict.

We don't see the army of bots the US controls in China/Russia. They do the exact same thing...:D

+1 I think there were absolutely ill intentions against Russia. Respectable partners would consider each other's position, communicate, and be transparent about their plans. The US plays the same dirty game as everyone, gain influence, move countries towards one's own interests...capital was eyeing Ukraine... the US military was eyeing Ukraine...i am not saying Russia is a saint here but Ukraine is a playground of a conflict between the US and Russia and secondary between the US and the EU as you have already written. No side does whats best for Ukraine IMO->independent politics, neutral position like Switzerland, etc, tight relationship with russia. Of course with the political and economic capital the US has they can heavily influence ukraine leadership. We don't hear much of it but I can only estimate whats going on behind the scenes with selensky. +1 Well said and absolutely agree. I think Putin is not the madman the media tries to portray him to be and there could be, with the right leadership, a fast road to stability and security for the country. But certainly not with Selensky who is willing to sacrifice so many men before engaging in alternative paths, which would be IMO sensible. We can only wait and see whats going to happen. I think the conflict should be over in the next year or year after because resources will be depleted, there will be major elections in Germany and the US...could be a lot of turmoil.

Which counter argument? Counter argument against what? What? I am completely limiting the scope of discussion to pretend my arguments make sense...okay? You have literally written 0 text in this discussion and neither have responded to anything. If that's your serious level of argument then I don't think we need to communicate about this conflict at all All the best!

You really wanna twist it dont you? We talked about quality of life in russia, yes, freedom of speech is limited, doesn't mean life is terrible. Look at China, same is true. Does the majority care about that in russia? Probably not? Its not like that they are all slaves in misery, contrary to north Korea... Way to put it I guess, "murdered" "hell hole" "north korea" "Venezuela". Its not the political and economic reality in russia. For the large amount of people. I personally want freedom of speech and I oppose the war lead by russia btw.

I am much more optimistic of the industrial base that was developed in china the last 20 years then what happened in the US. Those things will be the ones that matter, supply-chains, manufacturing power, control of investment allocation, and banks, access to natural resources, access to large talent pool and university network, a large science base, a hard-working population and work ethic, undividedness, and political stability. Most of these things China does better hence I think China will do better over time than most countries.

Is Russia going the way of North Korea?? I really don't think that's an accurate description. North Korea is so far behind in development and Russia has a pretty good industrial base from which they can work with. It's just looking for other partners which ARE still there...China, India, Saudis, BRICS... Freedom of speech is limited yes, whatever, doesn't matter to the large majority which is politically relatively uninterested. Would not be my perfect system. I have my doubts about the "freedom" in the US too, look at Snowden, look at the deep connections of capital, parties, and the military. Look at how the interest of the majority has been ignored for decades. I don't think the US can point fingers quite frankly.

Amazingly good movie about political correctness, Danish production, @John Hjorth. Plays in Italy, Netherlands, and Denmark, mixed danish/English language. Highly recommended. Gotta warn you though, not for the faint-hearted...

Many countries see it like that btw, just look at BRICS. From Ronnie Chan: But frankly, this thing impacts everybody. And so I did devote quite a bit of time in my letter to this discussion. 3 things. Number one, I believe the capital flow in the world has been severely impacted and will change. And if a country can at will lock up people's U.S. dollar assets somewhere, will they continue to put money or assets in places which can be subjected to somebody's at will lock up, right? Even friends, allies of the United States are watching. Those guys are smart. They are not stupid, and they will do exactly the same thing as the less friendly to the United States. Nobody will talk about it. Everybody will quietly do it, right? However, [Foreign Language], sooner or later, time will -- things will service. And then it become a avalanche. And so I believe that the Ukrainian war is already setting in stage a gradual shift of capital flow directions in the world. That has been rather stable for the last 30, 40, 50, 60 years, but that has been changed. The second, that's capital flow. The second one is the energy politics, which, as we all know, has always been very important to the world. And it is not a joke. 1703, Peter the Great built St. Petersburg and move its capital there, symbolizing the westward looking of Russia, right? 319 years later, finally, the west says I don't want you. Never ever before. And in some way, Russia save the Western world during the Nazi days, right? And so for the first time, they say I don't want you. So Putin said, I will go east. And that's why it benefits China. It can get energy and food, which both are deficient in China, especially energy, a lot easier than otherwise. And so when they look east and when China benefits, our business benefits, right? I can go on a lot more detail, but forget about it. Number 3, inflation. Did the West before they react to the Ukrainian war, factor in the possibility of inflation such as shortage of food right, and energy cost? And that will have ramification around the world. Think about this. Famine always creates revolutions and social unrest, right? And Africa, forget about it. I know I'm into too much detail. I know again, yes, tons of stories. Africa will suffer. And you will see migrants from Africa that go across the Mediterranean into Europe. And so you have all these. Why is America going to Venezuela, Iran, Saudi Arabia and UAE, right? The first 2 are debt enemies. The President are begging them, please produce more energy. And those guys just go like that, right? Ignore it. And even Saudi Arabia and UAE, they are not listening either. And so that's why the United States have to relax at least relax -- talking about relaxing some of the restriction on trade with China. [Foreign Language] Sorry for the Chinese, the Cantonese. Sorry. Anyway, so I think that -- and all that means that China will benefit. I think China will have a better time in the coming couple of years. And then, of course, you have the domestic situation in the United States that worries me no end. The Roe and Wade, that being reversed. That is just the beginning. You will see a lot more social divide to come, especially if Trump would come back in a few years. But even if not, I think that the division there is serious.

Have you ever been to russia? Do you have friends from russia? Its a beautiful country, with beautiful culture and with beautiful people. I know multiple Russians that are just average middle-class that live a great life there, have enough money, enjoy their time with their loved ones, go fishing, whatever...of course there is poverty on the country side but I don't have to show you the poverty level in the US in certain areas...contrary to western media, many people don't necessarily hate putin and he even has quite the supporter base. It would be good for both sides to understand mutual interests, similarity in way of life and drive one gear lower and restart communications.

So if the US build out their military presence in ukraine that way, ukraine has to expect response from its neighbor. As would Canada from the US if there would be Chinese bases building out close to the border. There is enough public evidence even for amateurs like us to see its problematic. Then imagine what kind of information russian secret services have about interference... If you want to argue that its justified to use your military to sabotage Russias security and to move a foreign country towards a zone of influence that you control, then I disagree with you. If you think you are allowed to do it because "democracy" then I disagree. The US wouldn't accept 1/10th of what they did with ukraine if China would do it in Canada, Mexico or whatever.

This is not even the point. It's about the security of the country Russia and its citizens. I don't think Putin/Russia look at the whole track record of America to assess their military security. Its enough to see where the US simply does what it wants against any rules. You deserve no more trust than China deserves, or even Russia. Everyone is spying against each other, as is the US spying against Germany as an example. The US would be equally willing to steal technology as China would. Where have I blamed democracy? I am simply talking about russias security perspective. If you don't consider that at all then you risk conflict, as we can visibly see now. The CIA bases, and millions of foreign funding are just one piece of evidence that Ukraine is not sovereign. Highly corrupt showplace of large military powers... This is not the discussion at all, it's about the interest of countries, including Russia and China.