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Everything posted by Luke
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I don't have to explain, with every statement one makes in this war, that it's a brutal, tragic, vicious, and unnecessary war that I wouldn't wish for any country in this world without having a moral police stepping by. But that is also part of this conflict; you can't discuss anything without someone playing the moral police and it prevents to discuss the fundamentals and seeking a resolution.
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John, please, my statement was without moral judgment. I was simply speaking from the Russian side of view. The land they gained is not "nothing". There are trillions worth of minerals and other natural ressources that are valuable. So the war, as much people it cost, gained them a lot of ressources. Yes, brutal, but thats obvious. I am not in this thread to sob or virtue signal, just simply discussing reality and whats happening behind the scenes.
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IMO the US operates fully in its own interests (contrary to european countries but they dont see that), which by now are not realizable and will lead only to further escalation because Russia would rather blow up than be defeated. They also have little to lose with how much they are pushed into a corner anyway. It is time to call it off and sit down with Putin to discuss forced peace (as much as this goes against the will of the Ukrainians). Much better would be of course, total withdrawal by Putin, some sort of autonomous region in the east and a neutral position with a new government. But I think that deal was realistic 10 years ago, but not anymore
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Russia has expanded its wealth of natural resources by more than 10%, and there is a lot of value in the eastern region, so I don't think "nothing" was gained here. But as you already said in previous posts, it was not smart at all from Ukraine to lean towards either side and could have existed perfectly fine if it would have run a more "swiss" position with a government that operates more strategically. I agree basically with everything you said in previous post though. Ukraine got into things way bigger than them, and the government didn't think about its position and the willingness of Russia to solidify itself there. Very tragic.
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Thank you for your detailed answer!
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There will be a 4%?! buyback tax??
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Relatively well
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And i own some tracking stocks, minor positions, some leftover TSMC shares that i will probably never sell.
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Half in FFH 25% in PRX almost 20% of PDD Rest is in AMR, HCC, IPCO On Margin, I own: Hang Lung Group, WOSG, PETROBRAS 3 very big bets. IB hates me for it and requires ridiculous margin requirements, i have enough liquidity that i can get out of the margin quickly. Sold my Japan stocks for mid teens gain, exited EVO.AB (still think its a good bet), exited some other things which went into the larger positions, for example when PDD crashed. We will see what the future brings, I am young, and I can afford to be concentrated!
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+1 Just love the set up still at current valuation. Fairfax has lots of room if a recession hits and will do well if it doesnt too. Also, i could not find anything else where i would feel comfortable allocating as much money as this position is and i really dont want to be in cash Maybe buy even more Prosus but i like my current mix.
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https://qz.com/bill-gates-would-make-the-rich-poorer-1851652364 Back to communism for the US?
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The thread is called "Is Europe becoming uninvestable"? The answer clearly is: NO! Lots of good stuff!!
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Folks, I am patiently waiting yet to read ONE comment that speaks out for the need to regulate these mega-caps in their anti-consumer stances. The EU needs to downsize, but the IDEA itself is good. WHY is there this ridiculous iPhone lock-in with their lightning cables, why are the phones unrepairable and software locked etc. Have you ever dealt with this S***?
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https://www.scmp.com/economy/policy/article/3279153/china-eyes-sci-tech-venture-capital-boost-industrial-upgrade-economic-growth?module=top_story&pgtype=homepage
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What stocks/assets to own if China/US ties continues to worsen?
Luke replied to sleepydragon's topic in General Discussion
"Reversing globalization would involve a massive derating of US asset prices as sales to foreign buyers are artificially restricted. Effects on GDP could theoretically be contained, but the wealthy would have to become poorer in hopes of bringing low-income folks back into the middle class as investment bankers become process engineers and Uber drivers become factory workers. For a political economy that couldn’t figure out a mechanism to pay-them-off as globalization created immense riches, how likely is it that the immensely rich will willingly stomach becoming significantly poorer?" In that case owning local manufacturing companies that take chinas market will be good! -
All of these are insanely high quality, there is no shame in not having a trillion or two trillion USD marketcap. I have 0 bias towards any country in the world as long as the price is right and the story
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Europe and European countries have a heck of a lot of wonderful companies of various sizes. Just because they don't have any tech megacaps doesn't mean they are not innovative. There are thousands of midcap suppliers of semiconductors, robotics, cars, etc. Part of why there are no EU equivalents to US-mega caps is their monopolistic structure. Good luck getting venture investments for a Facebook, Windows, Apple 2.0
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Which regulations AGAINST big tech by the EU are in YOUR opinion "bad"? Please explain. The golden eggs are tax evasion, lowest corporate taxes ever, anti-repair anti-consumer products, record high dividends and buybacks, and coercing entire countries with their power They are not a good goose! X is a complete mess, you cant contact them about your account, they ban people and you get no feedback why. If you want the data they have about you they dont contact you back. The guy cant do what he wants with a business of that size. We are not in the wild west.
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I don't think the size of a company or several companies is an indication of a prosperous country. It's also not necessarily a sign of a "good" company. It's increasingly concerning how monopoly-like US mega-caps have become, and they face almost no regulatory consequences except for the EU. Bashing the EU for regulating these monopolies makes sense since you are likely all shareholders of such companies, and you want them to abuse their monopoly-like position as much as they can, but I like a lot of things the EU does to make these companies ACTUALLY better (hello USB-C apple). There is a lot of noise by such companies because they prefer 0 regulation but i don't have to tell you where that leads.
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https://asiatimes.com/2024/09/biden-nato-effectively-declaring-war-on-russia/
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After securing investments from prominent Western financial institutions, it channeled these funds through offshore companies located in tax havens like Cyprus and the Cayman Islands and into joint ventures with local firms to take over the land.72 The firm faces accusations of unlawful land acquisition, tax evasion, and illicit financial activity.73 NCH Capital played a key role in pushing for land reform in Ukraine: In 2015, its founder and CEO George Rohr was part of the high-level meetings involving the Ukrainian President and the US Secretary of Commerce that led Ukraine to agree on an IMF reform plan, as a condition for two US$1 billion loan guarantees from the US government.74 Those seem like nice guys! The best system in the world! Slava Ukraini!
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Never going to happen-->The end of the war should be the moment and opportunity for just the opposite, i.e. the redesign of an economic model no longer dominated by oligarchy and corruption, but where land and resources are controlled by and benefit all Ukrainians. This could form the basis for the transformation of the agricultural sector to make it more democratic and environmentally and socially sustainable. International policy and financial support should be geared towards this transformation, to benefit people and farmers rather than oligarchs and foreign financial interests. You simply don't get any Western dollars or euros for free!
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And of course, as a western financial institution you would want your assets to be protected by the peaceful NATO and get into the EU for trading benefits!
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Meanwhile everyone in the western world and media cheering for further war Selensky does a firesales to western investors and prepares Ukraine to be completely privatized and neoliberalized to foreign investors. Its so disgusting IMO that you hear absolutely nothing about these developements but only that the war needs to go on. Such a hypocrisy, ukraine gets empathy as long as they defend future investors assets. Its all about money and power again and nobody actually really gives a shit about the dead Ukrainian farmers etc takeover-ukraine-agricultural-land.pdf