Luke

Nahh...why Starbucks last?

https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/ukraine-war-frontline/ Life on Ukraine’s front line: ‘Worse than hell’ as Russia advances

We will see how this plays out!

But the west is of course obsessed with Navalny and playing this "oppression" story to prepare their societies for further war support and in the end maybe send some of their citizens there for Operation Freedom.

Again, if this is what you have to say regarding Russia and their current leadership and if Western diplomats and leaders think similarly, there is no way that there is any de-escalation happening in this war until the US/UK/GERMANY/FRANCE literally raid Russia and take over the country. And because that is a serious risk and because Russians and Russian-speaking Ukrainians received huge backlashes in the country, he attacked the country. As long as the West is unable to establish relations with the Russian state without an absolute evil/black-and-white view, this war will escalate further where either Ukraine completely collapses because of getting close to tactical nukes or we will have full blown war with western forces. Do you have friends in russia? Were you ever in russia? I have multiple russian friends that still today regularly fly there and putins support is not at all as bad as you try to portrait it.

It's never good to rely on one country that has a crazy orange man, now convicted felon, upcoming as president and a more and more unstable "democracy".

Under that premice, it will be ever lasting war. Is Ukraine in a better position now to "negotiate" anything? And how many ten thousand Ukrainian men died since then or are disabled? NATO is off the table for Russia and it's a ridiculous demand by the west, nobody in their right mind would accept it, the US wouldn't accept it either themselves if they were in that situation. Violence as a reason for more violence, that's not how to de-escalate. Well, you see why I am saying that YOU should go to war too if shit hits the fan! So if what you think is a general view of the West, it is understandable that Putin sees a threat that wants his government and their current country removed. Imagine being a Russian speaking Ukrainian with a government that gets supported by people who think like you...why is Putin defending Russians in the East...? BECAUSE, as you said, they are hated (rightfully so, according to you) So many Russians (huge majority), surprisingly still stand behind Putin but the west just says its a kleptocrat, corrupt, propaganda blablabla...the more you share your view, the more understandable this conflict becomes and the more understandable russias reactions are.

Nice one, I bought a SBUX starter share to track the business the last days...

Maybe because Russia has valid security concerns regarding their own country? Is only the US allowed to threaten foreign countries establishing military operations close to them but the rest has to put up with 800+ developing bases?

Could you elaborate? Not fully understanding what you mean

Thats why emerging market etfs are so interesting, you pay a very low multiple and get paid a dividend the size of the total US index returns while larger GDP growth! Or emerging markets businesses!

Yep!

Yeah, considering taxes are different for everyone (i am not US) i didnt include it but your point is well taken! Still, if you are able to find businesses that trade at 27x earnings, grow sales more than 4.1% etc you will likely outperform over time as long as multiples and business stays stable. Not hard!!

Lots of inflows into the US and MAG 7+ because they are perceived as ultra safe and "only go up" (based on last 20 years)...the SP 500 is priced at 27x earnings, the last 10 years these 500 companies grew their sales at 4.1% all together and they pay out 1.3% annually at current valuations. Shares outstanding for all SP 500 companies went 0.7% lower per year over the last 10 years. If you have margins stable you will make-> 4.1% sales growth+1.3% divid. yield+0.7% buybacks= 6,1% annualized the next 10 years. 10 year treasury is at 4.5% with 0 risk. Lots of value in smallcaps, europe/emerging markets/asia.

https://michael-von-der-schulenburg.com/with-its-role-in-the-ukraine-war-the-european-union-may-risk-its-own-political-future/ With its role in the Ukraine war the European Union may risk its own political future Is a political elite in the EU risking Europe’s future out of a false sense of self-righteousness? And yet, peace is not part of the EU’s discourse. It is the language of war that unites the majority of European governments and the established media today – and this, although there is no common EU strategy on the Ukraine war, no common approach on what can be achieved and how. The Polish Prime Minister, for example, declared that Europe was already in a pre-war situation, perhaps already at war, and Sweden’s Prime Minister called on Swedish families to prepare for war. The President of the EU Commission can think of nothing else but to demand more and more money, more weapons and more ammunition and demands a conversion of Europe to a war economy. Even Chancellor Scholz, who we must thank for having prevented the deployment of Taurus missiles so far, only talks about Russia not being allowed to win the war. Wouldn’t it have made more sense for him and his European colleagues to think rather about how to win peace in Europe? The acrimonious and irreconcilable attitude of the EU towards Russia is particularly evident in Germany in the two motions tabled by the governing and opposition parties in the Bundestag, the German parliament, on the second anniversary of the war in Ukraine. These motions read more like declarations of war against Russia, in which highly questionable arguments are combined with unrealistic maximum demands and simultaneous threats. They leave no room for compromise. Hence, any attempt at negotiations is made impossible from the outset. After two years of war, this approach is tantamount to a denial of reality. It is a policy of clinging to a continuation of the war, knowing full well that there is no realistic hope of a victorious peace in Ukraine. This may also explain why individual EU member states are plunging into irresponsible actionism. This includes France’s proposal to send NATO troops to fight in Ukraine and its plans to station French units in Moldova. It also includes once again the believe in a miracle weapon by German political hardliners and their demands on making Taurus missiles available to Ukraine. Such plans appear to be ill-conceived and therefore potentially dangerous. They are also unrealistic. The EU has neither military capabilities, nor sufficient political unity nor any popular support for individual states or the EU as a whole to launch such adventurous ventures. In any case, they would be unlikely to change the course of the war but would lead to further killing and destruction in Ukraine. Furthermore, such plans run the risk of leading to an escalation of the war in Ukraine, with the frightening prospects that this could develop into a pan-European or even a nuclear World War. When a French president claims that such considerations are just a sign of cowardice and a German Green party tells us that there is no nuclear risk at all, even if Moscow or Russian military nuclear installations are attacked, they are gambling with the survival of us all. And for what? Just because we don’t want to admit to ourselves that we can no longer win this war and that negotiations are the only option left. @Gamecock-YT Time is also running out for the EU in another respect. In just a few months, political relationship with the USA could change dramatically should Donald Trump become US President. There are already considerable differences among the EU member states, and a political landslide in the USA could divide the EU member states rather than bring them closer together. With its uncompromising pro-war and anti-Russia policy, the EU will also further isolate itself from most non-NATO states in the world. There will be no understanding there for continuing to escalate militarily while at the same time refusing to negotiate with Russia without preconditions. The EU sets itself up for a massive failure if it continues its current path of seeking solutions through ever more weapon deliveries and sanctions. In its own interests, the European Union urgently needs a change of strategy that must aim at a pan-European peace and security order based on the 1990 Charter of Paris for a New Europe and that must include Ukraine and Russia. The forthcoming elections to the European Parliament would therefore be an opportunity for Europeans to say no to the EU’s militant policies by voting for peace on June 9.

Michael von der Schulenburg, former diplomat with the UN and OSCE, was Assistant Secretary-General in UN peace missions in Iraq and Sierra Leone: https://michael-von-der-schulenburg.com/understanding-the-ukraine-conflict-michael-von-der-schulenburgs-insights/ One must Negotiate with Putin "The situation must be extremely difficult for the Ukrainians. Through more than two years of war, Ukraine has paid a heavy price in blood on both sides of the front lines, with large parts of the country having been destroyed. The country is deeply divided politically, has become the poorest country in Europe, continues to suffer from widespread corruption, and is in the process of becoming increasingly depopulated. The military situation also looks extremely unfavorable. The Ukrainians are today the cheated people of Europe, also cheated by us. Their country has become a battlefield for geopolitical interests, including Western geopolitical interests. It could now even face the risk of collapsing. If we really want to be friends with Ukraine, as we like to claim, we should now do everything we can to end this war through a negotiated peace." "What he wants is pretty clear: Putin does not want NATO or foreign military bases so close to Russia in Ukraine; he wants to secure Russia’s access to the Black Sea and to protect the security of the pro-Russian population in Ukraine. We can assume that these goals are shared by the vast majority among the Russian elites and among the Russian population. As early as 1997, President Yeltsin already warned US President Clinton against wanting to bring Ukraine into NATO; he emphasized that there is a thick red line for Russia. Russia’s position has not changed since. Michael von der Schulenburg was actually involved with the draft of the piece treaty in Istanbul 2022: "Yes, I mean the Istanbul Communiqué of March 30, 2022, which both sides accepted and initialed. It was drawn up by the Ukrainians and consisted of 10 proposals. It is an amazing document, a brilliant achievement of Ukrainian diplomacy. In it, Ukraine did not formally give up a single square meter of land. Kiev only accepted that the status of Crimea would be decided peacefully in 15 years. There was no mention of Donbass; that was to be negotiated directly between Zelensky and Putin. At its core, the Istanbul peace proposal was a deal between Ukraine and Russia in which the Ukraine committed itself to remaining neutral and not to allow any other state to establish military bases on its territory. Russia, in return, would guarantee the territorial integrity of Ukraine and withdraw all invading troops. In this document, Russia even undertook to support Ukrainian membership of the EU. But the West did not want the treaty. A week before Istanbul, there was a special NATO summit in Brussels, which Biden also attended. There, it was decided not to support any negotiations with Russia until Russia withdrew from the whole of Ukraine. This meant nothing other than NATO demanding Russia’s military defeat and, hence, clearing the way for Ukraine’s membership in NATO. When Zelensky nevertheless stuck to the peace negotiations with Russia, British Prime Minister Johnson paid an unexpected visit to Kiev on April 9, 2022, making it unmistakably clear to the Ukrainians that they would lose all support from the West if they signed a peace treaty with Russia. This put an end to the possibility of an early peace." "If the USA continues to escalate with NATO support and, as announced, now sends weapons with which Russia can be hit at its strategically important locations, Russia, as indicated, would not shy away from extreme reactions. The danger of this conflict escalating into a nuclear war is therefore higher today than ever before. NATO should not underestimate Russia’s determination again." "Such demonization of the opponent is common among warring parties. The other party is always the embodiment of evil against whom we, as the good guys, must fight to save the world. We will certainly find similar demonization of the West in Russia. What is perhaps unusual here is that we in the EU behave like a warring party, even though we always claim not to be a party in this war." "I find it frightening that I am now getting reactions from senior German diplomats who are full of hatred for Russia. Such “diplomats” would never be in a position to conduct peace negotiations. But why do we have them then? In wars you need diplomats with a cool head, diplomats who can also understand their opponents and thus look for feasible compromises to end the killing in wars. In doing so, they must not allow themselves to be captured by their own war propaganda or pro-war media. It also plays a role here that we in Germany find it difficult to accept a different point of view, even if it advocates the silencing of weapons and peace negotiations. It’s no coincidence that I can only give this interview to a Swiss magazine, which then also publishes it." "The closest we came to a solution was when the Ukrainians and Russians talked to each other directly, without Western interference. I’m sure there will be talks between the military on both sides; they all know each other because nobody wants all their people to be slaughtered. But we won’t find out about the talks until the time comes. Then it could happen very quickly. I can well imagine that the Russians are making offers to the Ukrainian military that are better than something that could be negotiated here in Switzerland, especially now that Switzerland is likely to have lost a lot of international sympathy as a neutral state due to its stance on the Gaza war."

https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/ausland/bundesregierung-deutsche-waffen-ukraine-krieg-russland-100.html Germany allows Ukraine to use German weapons in Russian territory! It begins!

My predictions stand, now the future can prove me wrong!

He has absolutely 0 interest in doing that. What would the benefit for him be in doing this? He wants germany as a good buyer of their resources, stability and supplying industrial goods to them back. That job china filled in now

Sorry, but you don't know how functional their nuclear capabilities are and I think they are very likely to work. Using tactical nukes for strategically important Ukrainian positions won't burn their families but cause huge damage and they play a significant role in this war. No one should believe anyone, not even NATO...fact is, Putin is willing to negotiate and with the right assurances peace is reachable (on which you disagree). My predictions: 1. Ukraine will further lose men daily and Russia will accelerate the damage behind the front. 2. Ukraine will eventually face a dead end due to a lack of men and crumbling infrastructure. 3. If the West allows Ukraine to attack Russian soil, Russia will intensify the damage to Ukraine to assure its security. 4. Tactical Nuclear bombs will be used IF Ukraine poses a significant threat to Russian sovereignty 5. Ukraine will lose except if the west joins the war actively. 6. We will then have WW3. 7. If the West doesn't join, Ukraine will lose and the country will become an empty battlefield zone over time and the government will slowly collapse. Ukraine will become a wasteland. Sacrificing regions and joining a realistic peace treaty is by far the best option to take for Ukraine and for us. We will know how this war turns out in a couple of years and I am willing to change my mind if things change!

I am not deflecting, I have made my position clear already before in this thread, and weren't you drumming for Ukraine to continue this war and deliver more and heavier weapons? How far are you willing to go, personally?

He certainly isn't planning to knock at Natos door

No, I do not think you are exactly right about him and I have laid out my view on this situation in this thread already

A hot war between nuclear powers will be the end and I don't see enough efforts to prevent this. Well, the line moved already and there are more deaths ahead. If you give Ukraine too much potential to hurt Russia they will just use more and more severe attacks, hitting critical infrastructure or at last resort, use tactical nuclear bombs to arrange their security. Ukraine CANT win. Just released from austrian military: https://www.bundesheer.at/aktuelles/detail/drei-fragen-zum-angriff-auf-das-russische-atomraketen-fruehwarnsystem-oberst-reisner-antwortet "If this is indeed the case, two further conclusions can be drawn: first, the situation in Ukraine is extremely serious and second, the war over Ukraine has escalated again. It now remains to be seen how or if Russia will respond to this attack on its nuclear deterrence capability. The Russian early warning detection system is part of the country's nuclear deterrence strategy. The attack on Armavir could fulfill the conditions that Russia publicly set out in 2020 for adversary attacks that could trigger a nuclear retaliation strike. In addition, possible cooperation between Russia and its close allies in the space has been limited, to the benefit of close US partners." Putin won't knock at Europe door no matter how much the media wants us to believe that to justify further escalation. He even seemed to be willing to let the rest of Ukraine join Europe as long as security assurances were given. This war can be ended right now, lives can be saved, the sanctions can be lifted, we can work on mutual diplomacy with russia and china and develop this world in peace.

And what will the West do then? WW3? Maybe consider diplomacy instead of increasing hostilities and fronts! Cheers!