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Took a couple big bites of MSCI yesterday and today and I'm at a 1% position. Added a little NTDOY.

Right, but arguing whether the inflation exists, or whether it's inherently bad are two different things. Maybe no one is *entitled* to eat out, but if they're used to doing it and it's effectively taken away from them, they're going to be disgruntled about it and be looking for someone to blame.

Bought more PDD

And thats fine. They've created certain words, like inflation, that people are conditioned to just accept. They say inflation, and people immediately think "ooh, bad"...If "inflation" is largely driven by expensive restaurants...so friggin what? No one is forced to eat out...I mean we act like its something that everyone is entitled to...but what about the people working at the restaurant? Theyre just trying to make a living. Theyre probably not going out to eat 2x a week. Its nonsense. The majority of the wage price spiral theory is invalid because as we got more industrialized, especially at scale, you can pump out as many of most goods as you want for little incremental cost. Obviously you cant produce more chefs and bartenders like that, but again, employment is good, not bad.

For Berkshire (and Fairfax) i think the cash drag was more a problem when short term interest rates were effectively zero. Now that short term rates are much higher (3 month treasury is 5.4%) holding cash is no longer a drag on returns.

I like Fairfax's setup here and have added some more to my position recently. But aren't we all jumping the gun comparing it to Berkshire and their position in 1995? To match Berkshire's track record going forward, Fairfax is going to need to significantly shift its asset allocation from 75% bonds to predominantly equities. As a Canadian company, will Fairfax be allowed to do this by insurance regulators (I'm ignorant on the rules here but there must be differences between the US and Canada)? Also, this shift presumes that there will be good opportunities to buy wonderful companies at fair prices that Fairfax can easily shift capital into. Is the investing environment going forward going to be conducive to doing this? Buffett himself has written that the investment arena is much more competitive now and there aren't as many easy opportunities as there were in the past. There are also many people out there now trying to implement the Munger playbook. Lastly, have we seen that Fairfax is able to identify and buy these compounders / wonderful companies? Where are the Coca-Cola's, Amex's, See's Candies, Apples in their portfolio today? Which companies in their portfolio have high returns on assets, are growing and have durable moats?

Uh huh. I mean its plain old manipulation and outright fixing the game by the ruling class when you get down to what it is at its core. Because who does what during the downturns? The lower end people have to complete for fewer jobs and often work multiple jobs. The middle class aspirer who's just able to afford the house or the car no longer can, and the rich people buy vacation homes and distressed assets like its Christmas...

I completely agree, but it *is* inflationary. Plenty of middle class people who used to enjoy a weekly dinner out at a restaurant are being priced out of that small luxury.

^^^ Agree - and these widening income gaps certainly impact social unrest as well. Destruction of the American dream.

Because workers have been getting screwed on wages for decades. Wages have not kept up with anything. So I think its total BS that a bunch of elitists now view wage grow as bad because god forbid its more expensive to enjoy the luxury of going to a restaurant or a bar...yeah, lets tank the economy to stop it...absurd. Its up there with them blocking the CPRI acquisition on the basis of people being entitled to $300 bags...where does it end?

It's funny, with Fairfax, nobody points to the bond portfolio and panics over the idle cash. They get busy calculating the spread between 95% combined ratio cost of capital and +4.5% investment yield. At Berkshire it sits in 3 month and 6 month bills and it's some huge problem. If Warren moved $150 billion to 3 and 5 year treasury notes would everybody stop worrying about the "cash problem" and call him a genius like Brian Bradstreet? Can we just call most of Berkshire's cash the "bond portfolio" and be done with the 'big cash problem' talk?

It is a good discussion and I could be wrong, though something is suspect here to me in this war, we will see how this develops and of course: discuss!! LEARNING MACHINE

What happens from here is really the huge question. The company is so big now, Buffett even wrote in the last letter that their era of eye popping returns is over. Breaking up the company after Buffett is gone would impair some of the advantages it has using insurance float to buy safe businesses. Paying a dividend would be counter to the desires of most of the shareholder base that Buffett has built up. No easy answers. However, there is still a possibility that in a period of financial turmoil Berkshire will be in a position to deploy a significant amount of capital. Given what is happening in the world today I wouldn't count out that possibility. This WSJ article was pretty good: https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-returns-investors-2e0acca9?st=y8ssqh77y6a8wpt&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

Given how I interpret your general worldview, I'm really surprised that you're not someone who sees the wage increases as leading to ongoing inflation. I'll agree that it's good for a lot of people getting the raises, but it's just classical economics, more money chasing the goods and services will always result in price increases. I know a number of restaurant owners who have significantly increased prices over the past few years, and yet they're still not making nearly as much as they were due to all the wage increases and wholesale food price increases. Which means more price hikes still to come. When you mention the grocery store, I do see the prices there have finally stabilized, but just because someone can substitute eating at home vs. going out doesn't mean their cost of living hasn't gone up. Sure I can eat more cheaply if I spend an hour cooking at home vs. having an after work cocktail at the bar, but that's assuming my time is worth 0. I've always thought substitution effects and hedonic adjustments are just BS that lets the government get away with understating the real inflation that so many people feel.

You are mostly pleasant Luca, to your credit.

Well, we have to disagree on our analysis but I appreciate the pushback

The war is dragging on because the Ukrainians don’t want to be dominated by the Russians, and the Russians would like to take over all of Ukraine. No further explanation is required. When I say it’s irrelevant who the war benefits I’m specifically referring to your insinuation that it’s the US causing the war to drag on because it suits America. Bullshit. It would suit America and Europe just fine if Russia didn’t start the war in the first place. Plenty of people cared about Ukraine before the invasion in 2022. I remember a tense meeting with Obama and Putin after Russia invaded Ukraine about a decade ago. It’s convenient for you to ignore such concerns but it’s also ironic that it’s people like you that also simultaneously claim that it was the West’s meddling in the Ukrainian’s Orange revolution that started all this. You can’t have it both ways, the West not caring, but also caring enough to meddle. Pick one.

I reread the document, you are right that discussions about the regions are not included but its clear that they wont be returned. I talked with a good friend of mine who is russian and from st.petersburg, also has multiple ukranian friends who have their own little community here in Germany. He also has friends from the annexed regions. In general he said that these regions were looking to Russia for a long time, the regions were shitholes, with no jobs, and bandit kind of local government. The people who didn't like Russia either left before or fled to Ukraine after the war but its not as material as the west might want it to look like. Ukraine tried to break through russian lines but miserably failed because they lack man power and weapons. They went on offense and lost and have to grab more and more man that become also more and more unwilling. My russian friend said that in russia/st Petersburg the atmosphere to this war is surprisingly positive, there are many who want to fight and they get paid very very well. But of course, as with China, we only hear how oppressed and miserable their population is. Absolutely not. At least its relevant if you want to understand why this war gets dragged on so much and why the west is so heavily invested. Did they care that the eastern regions in ukraine were criminal shitholes? Noone cared. But now ukraine is THE media topic in the most positive light. The US also hoped that the Russian population would go against Putin and their government would crumble together with the sanctions...all of this didn't materialize. Well, the Russians certainly learned a lot during the war and look pretty well positioned considering the situation.

Looking forward to the results later.

The Security I Like Best:). Nice!

Try actual mail addressed to him handwritten on a Manila envelope. No stamps or stickers that look corporate. Just you to him. I’ve got past many gatekeepers this way and landed some huge fish that otherwise their secretaries would quickly delete an email. I've gotten calls from some major real estate owners and have jaw dropped when they said who they were. Snail mail for the win imo.

If you look at Maersk's results for Q1, their guidance has jumped leaps and bounds from $1B-$6B in EBITDA to $4B-$6B. That's one hell of a jump on the low side! I would imagine that Poseidon will hit the targets Sokol has talked about. Cheers! https://finance.yahoo.com/news/maersk-posts-q1-profits-above-060706435.html

Morningstar´s latest regarding Berkshire: https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/is-berkshire-hathaway-buy-before-annual-meeting

Well, there are always two sides to the coin but I guarantee you a hilarious read as I chuckled so many times while listening.