All Activity

Thanks for pointing out the Elliott presentation on Daikin - I hadn't noticed this and used to follow this industry pretty closely. For those interested, here is a direct link to Elliott's presentation on Daikin: https://elliottletters.com/wp-content/uploads/EN-Elliott-Management-Releases-Presentation-on-Daikin-Industries-Ltd.pdf Daikin and Mitsubishi have a great quality reputation (outside of Daikin's Goodman unit which has a low-cost/bad reputation) but I worry that like in so many industries the Chinese giants Midea & Gree are just going to eat huge chunks of global marketshare on price competitiveness. Midea and Gree are the manufacturer of an enormous amount of HVAC equipment that had other brand names on it. There is more to the industry than Residential HVAC and mini split heat pumps but I just see Midea & Gree killing it with their contract manufacturing divisions and they are everywhere. Price is low, quality is plenty good. When Daikin bought Goodman in the US, the best part of that deal was the overnight distribution advantage they acquired. According to Elliott they haven't done much to integrate any of those acquisitions. Anyway, I like HVAC and have my EPA 608 certification and do a lot of free HVAC repairs for friends and family and it's always an industry that has interested me. Plus its over 90 degrees F where I live so its important

CSU (+Topicus,Lumine), VEEV, Adobe, CPRT, Autotrader, Evolution AB, Hacksaw Gaming AB, KSPI, Edenred, FISV, GPN,(+JKHY,FIS,FOUR) OTCM, Karelia Tobacco, MTY Food Group, Greggs. Thats 75% of my portfolio and all are still cheap.

Don't want to turn this into an intellectual battle of ego's - I don't root for 80 hour work weeks, I'm just saying we could definitely return more ownership towards the people. My opinion is that we shouldn't take current government support for granted and I'm having a more positive image of the US in 25 years compared to EU. For EU I see more risks and less opportunities vs. US.

Yeah Adobe and SAP looks interesting

Nice! Angela tugs me around London pretty often, sometimes for an entire week. Paris too. However, we both prefer to spend the majority of our time discovering in the nooks and crannies. We plan on spending time in Llandudno also on this trip and actually can walk there from where we will stay.

The US is suffering from a similar problem though, they keep borrowing to fund their innovation. US debt to GDP is 122%, Belgium is 110%. Belgium needs to practice more austerity with their social security, too much is taken advantage of. It would indeed be better if that money is more spent towards innovation to increase our GDP, that I agree on. However, I don't believe this needs to result in Belgians working 80hour weeks to get by and pray to god they never need an ambulance.

I'm still very very bullish on Coupang. I believe many software names will have their moment in the sun from the levels as well.

You root for the team not the government. Do I really need to explain the obvious to you ? Doesn’t idiotic post like this belong to the “political thread” where wholesale destruction of people are casually discussed over coffee. Does not one root for United States (the country) to win, even with all the disgusting things (the government) does.

Makes you wonder how long that can last, though. As a fellow Belgian, you'll know we're not exactly in the strongest fiscal position — borrowing to keep all those commitments going, with growth that hasn't really kept pace. At some point, something's got to give. That's actually my main motivation for investing and building wealth in the first place — to be able to retire on my own terms, independent of whatever the government can or can't deliver by then. And to have a nest egg for the children to start with, because I have the idea that the social/economic mobility will be a lot more difficult in the AI future. And honestly, I think the EU needs to move closer to the US model. Incentives are better aligned. When people have a bit more skin in the game, they tend to push harder — I think we've gotten a little too comfortable here.

Perhaps a European perspective is more helpful here. I have 45 vacation days a year + 10 annual holidays This will increase to > 50 days when I reach 50. Get 20 days off for the birth of each child and am allowed to take 4 months off unpaid per kid (government subsidizes a little) I pay 46% taxes on my base income Companies offer a variety of additional extra-legal benefits that avoid the high taxation. In my country specifically, capital gains are taxed at 10%, dividends at 25%. My doctor visits cost me 3€ Health insurance covers almost everything, hospitalization insurance covers the rest. I am in a rare situation with a daughter that has a serious condition, probably been hospitalized >100 times by now. This literally has had no impact on our financial health.. in the U.S. I would be ruined. Despite the high taxes, most people I know would gladly choose extra holidays vs extra salary. The thing is, making substantially more money is not likely to get you a better lifestyle... we don't have 100M beachside mansions and that sort of extravagant stuff. We don't feel insecure about American exceptionalism. In fact we celebrate it... if this is how Americans love to spend their lives then this is great, you are building the future of the world. But we prefer to spend our lives more on quality time with family, friends, etc... We do consider your tipping culture borderline insane though. I think most Europeans understand that if you have a healthy work-life balance and live in a country where 'bad luck' is covered by the government, you don't really need to build a large amount of wealth. An ow, our food is just way better & healthier. Can't believe the kind of stuff you guys are allowed to put in food and sell to kids...

@SafetyinNumbers I love this chart. It shows how much more resilient Fairfax is today relative to its history to Cats. Shareholder equity has grown faster than premiums over the past 20 years. Since 2005: Shareholder equity 10x: $2.4bn -> $26bn Premiums 6x: $5bn -> $30bn. Same for float $6.6 ->$40. This is an additional reason that explains the widening gap and buffer i.e shareholder equity has grown faster than premiums/float. (interestingly buybacks will have the effect of reducing this buffer but of course increase per share value). The other aspect is that Fairfax will have 1-2% exposure to any Global catastrophe based on its size. There isn't idiosyncratic exposure as cat risk is shared across insurers. This is the latest one (a bit hazy) from the 2025 sustainability report.

I also like at the cheapish valuation: Dominos Pizza, Lvmh and Daikin Industries with the Elliott Involvement

You are correct here. Though similarly to US, high trust is still present in small towns. Immigration ruined that in the cities though...

Not to mention that the majority of people working for the EU commission have extravagent wages (even your typical blue and white collars) and are allowed to work from home...

It is a good thread every year to discuss the best ideas for the year. But right now everything changes so fast, therefore it is after the first 6 month of the year a good time to think about the choices from the start of the year or to discuss new ideas which starting to get interesting in the last months. New ideas for me. I was very optimistic about nintendo at the start, it is still a great company but with a lot of question marks after the last months, the management is not good. I bought Netflix and Microsoft the last days. Amrize still a big idea. Mgm was a big idea at the start and then came the buyout proposal. Exor was a big holding, i was frustrated before and then came the Luce, i sold all. in the last months i bought a few times S&P Global. What are your thoughts? New ideas? or comments on your picks from the start of 2026

"singer Parastoo Ahmadi and eight other musicians who were each sentenced to 74 lashes, a two-year travel ban and two-year ban on artistic activities. Their sentences relate to a live-streamed 2024 concert in Qom province where Parastoo Ahmadi performed unveiled in a sleeveless dress" Why would someone root for such a country to win?

Great quote from a great player! I'd not heard that one....

I was watching Algeria-Austria. Rooting for not getting a tie, so Iran can advance. The last 5 min I gave up as they were just bouncing around. Switched to Argentina and Jordan. Only to switch back after the surprise Algeria goal that brought Iran back, only to lose it again after Austria did the impossible. Iran had two offsides that in my books should have been goals. Anyhow at least Canada advanced today and will face off either the Netherlands or the Moroccans.

Flamingo‘s over Russia, love to see it: Check out what they look like- it’s a cheap jet engine (pulse jet) strapped on a rocket and payload body. It’s basically a V1 with GPS.

The way it was described to me is they took the pricing but didn’t expand coverage so cat has shrunk as a percentage of total premiums. This chart in the 2024 Climate report shows how far away cat losses are from 15% shareholder’s equity and that the gap is getting wider. This means if there is a really bad cat, we’ll be able to write a lot of business at great prices and premium growth will accelerate. I think this will lead to multiple expansion as quant buyers will show up. This is another “free” option in the Fairfax story that investors assign a discount to and not.a premium which would be more appropriate.

Nothing wrong with CNBC itself, even the mighty Buffett watches it in the background with mute on. I usually run Bloomberg TV on low volume when I work from home. So there is value in them. But think of them as distribution channels rather than content creators. For instance CNBC has 98% market share of anything Berkshire. Great content through the same exact pipeline that also bring Lousy Joe from Squawkpod. There are however key differences between CNBC and Bloomberg. The former caters to domestic business news while the latter caters to international/global news. You can watch Bloomberg TV at 2 AM and it will be aired via HK. On newspaper side, WSJ caters to domestic business news while FT/The Economist cater to global news. So I don’t see this as CNBC fault or a MAGA thing. This is just Joe acting like a child. That kind of behaviour is unacceptable.

Eventually, Germany, France and other states will have to adopt air conditioning because these temperatures are way higher than they used to be and also for longer in many summers. Good business for air conditioning and heat pump manufacturers potentially.

I'm now convinced that Blake is simply trolling the forum, posting nonsense and laughing as people respond seriously to try to set him straight. But you went too far with this one. Bravo... fooled me for a long time.

Fairfax’s insurance business is much larger. In recent years, its exposure to catastrophes has come down a little. More resilient: At the same time, the dramatic increase in Fairfax’s earnings (and sources) is important. Additionally, Fairfax has been building additional resilience into their business model: the significant increase in non-insurance consolidated holdings in recent years. I think looking to the ratings agencies (specifically AM Best) can provide another helpful take… they have increased Fairfax’s ratings twice in recent years. Lots of positive developments. It is encouraging.

A large cat would hurt near term BVPS growth but probably result in multiple expansion that would more than offset it. Long term they will get it back anyway,