All Activity

You're in NYC. Just go into any downtown bar on a Fri or Sat (when the bridge and tunnel girls are out) and happen to drop that you work at a hedge fund. You'll do fine.

What are some examples?

Twitter people have no idea about democracy, as usual. To give a non-democratic example, numerous punitive laws in Russia are approved by the parliament in a few days, from initial idea to legal validity. Here we see 3 years of discussions and multiple rejections - that is as democratic as it gets. You could phrase this as "the EU is preventing chat control for the 6th time", because the EU consists of multiple actors, some o which are coming up with ideas, and some are rejecting or approving ideas. Compare this again with the Russian president who decided to start a full scale war without asking anyone. Or the American president who did the same recently.

Google, Facebook are built on collecting personal data, it's the whole business model. Every Big Tech today does that

The East Coast of Canada is stunningly beautiful. Much smaller and less diversity than Vancouver or British Columbia, but the people, land and food is amazing! More akin to Ireland than most of the rest of Canada...literally across the pond from Ireland! I plan on making a driving trip in the fall of 2027 starting from Quebec and then all around the East Coast including Prince Edward Island (PEI). The "Newfy" stuff (big in the 1970's) was Canada's version of U.S. backwater jokes or Polish lightbulb jokes...more ignorance than anything else! Newfoundland, Nova Scotia, PEI, etc are hidden gems that more people around the world should be aware of! Cheers!

I'm just saying, lots of men out there have bad experiences and wind up resenting women for one reason or another...that's no way to live, no way to find a partner and no way to build a healthy relationship. Good lucky buddy, you're wealthier, younger, smarter, and probably more handsome than I - go knock it out of the park! Next time I'm in the city I'll shoot you a message, I at least owe you a round or a dinner!

Ok cool. Do we get to keep our provincially (or I guess now, state) funded healthcare? If so, how do we keep the poor and indigent from every other state from moving here to use it if they get sick?

"You know what's loser mentality? Whining about homelessness, just go buy a home" - Says the man who has a mansion. Bad analogy, but you folks lucked out being born in a different era. As much as I disdain the manosphere clowns, some facts are not refutable. No offense LC, but answers like these are why the youngins fall for those retard manosphere exploiters. You really think most folks my age haven't tried that? . My generation is literally living in that rat utopia experiment. This is also who the "looksmaxxing" crowd have gained such popularity as of late. There are no 1BRs under $5k unfortunately. Studios costing closer to $4k now.. I can afford that, affordability is not my problem. Not being able to light a cigarette in my own balcony is.

This post might not age well (or it may!) but when multiple expansion happens it usually happens rapidly and when people least expect it. And there isn’t necessarily a reason you can clearly point to even with hindsight. I have seen it multiple times. It’s just price matching up with value (the only law in investing) . We just don’t know if it will happen next month or in 5 years. With buybacks we can (mostly) sit back and relax regardless.

As an America I think it would be awesome if Alberta joined the US. No they wouldn’t be their own nation, but lots of states retain their own identity.

HaHa! - Hit on it!, @whatstheofficerproblem !

I just looked up my NYC apartment which i rented from 2011-2013. It's a 2BR available for $7,500 / month. the living room was cut in half to create a 3rd bedroom. A reasonable trio would split this, $3,000/mo $2,500/mo, $2,000 / month or something like that ($3K gets the en suite, $2.5K gets the real bedroom / shares bathroom, $2K gets the fake bedroom share bathroom). (the $3K guy is getting the best deal but paying the most)...it was a doorman building / pretty nice. It was $5,100 15 years ago, so has only gone up by 2.5%/yr, less than inflation and less than low end junior comp at banks / HF / etc. NYC housing is affordable if you have a great job (a hedge fund job certainly qualifies) and are willing to room up which is fun when you're young. are you only looking at studios / 1BR? you don't have to spend $4K...that gets you half of a luxury 2BR which is way too much for someone just outta college.

You may say so, but his performance is quite impressive, just take a look a this 80 years old charlatan and womanizer working on the always white dressed female Italian, who won't beg him! [If you ask me, it's just awesome, nobody can make this up, except AI! - please don't tell Melania about it, or your President may be in trouble! ] : https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116869343915433662

I thought I missed the thread! My apologies ~ Happy (one week belated) Canada Day!

Please don't listen to these married virgins And ignore all that loser manosphere crap. You know what women don't find attractive? Men who use the words 'hypergamous' and 'hybristophilic'. Good hygene, a good nature, and kindness will get you 90% of the way there. Go chase those 25 year old women, it's literally the biggest selling point of being in NYC. Saving fun for when you're 40 is the lamest thing you can do. Youth >>>>>>>>> money, every day of the week.

Bought some more LILAP and shorted a little LILAK as a hedge. In a month the common is up 50% while the preferred is down 20%. Seems like at least one of those is wrong.

Unlike, @Txvestor, I think multiple expansion beyond 1.5x will come from the next hard market. We could go well beyond 1.75x depending on how long it lasts. My guess is we’ll set higher highs and higher lows on the multiple over subsequent hard markets as buybacks dwindle the shares outstanding and long term holders are more reluctant to pay taxes but momentum investors still need to move in and out.

Hopefully, Orange Boy keeps his promises tonight .... SD

The short answer is I think your bracket of 1.2-1.5 looks pretty accurate these days (how the stock is actually trading). I think @Txvestor’s post above is spot on. Fairfax has been executing/performing exceptionally well for about 5 years now. IMHO, the current multiple range of 1.2-1.5x does not reflect that strong performance. As Fairfax continues to perform strongly - and their track record extends to 10 years - it makes sense to me the stock should trade at a higher valuation. But I really have no idea. My focus is fundamentals and capital allocation. Those topics… I have strong opinions.

Yes, the joys of running public money. I hear it from investors that question why we are sitting in a flat stock for over a year while tech is running every month but that's the job! Hopefully they give me that 5-10 year time frame!

I don't disagree. However, here is my lay man perspective as to why Fairfax does deserve a higher multiple of book value than it receives. 1) BV is understated, that's not just an estimation, it's based on publicly verifiable value of associates. And occasionally surfacing valuation of subsidiaries. Even if you exclude the latter there's $150-200 of value which management constantly reports about each quarter. 2) It has a higher insurance float per share compared to many other companies in their cohort. Same when you look at Float/insurance equity, they skew higher. Closer to Berkshire. 3) Their insurance operations have clearly reset to a better quality, we can for sure say they did in the hard market, and await confirmation as the market softens, but it seems to have materially shifted and the market has not acknowledged that fully and certainly isn't awarding it the appropriate multiple. But that realization if accurate will eventually come. Probably gradually. 4) Everytime they do a transaction involving one of their Insurance subs. You get a window into their actual value. You can basically take your pick of the transactions over the last decade ie Pethealth, First Capital, ICICI Lombard. They all happened at valuations significantly above 1.25BV, more like between 2-3x. These valuations were significantly above when they listed shares in Odyssey re and Northbridge in the 2000s at the 1.16 BV region (when the underwriting was arguably more inferior). Quality insurance franchises are worth paying up for and if they do transact, do so at a premium to where they trade. They are great value add engines so are seldom sold. 5) There will always be a holding company discount to their shares, this is something structural for any holding company, including Berkshire. That discount, whatever it is tends to be insignificant over longer periods of time as even if it persists, it doesn't affect the eventual returns. Companies buying back shares and looking at this as a capital allocation vehicle, constantly exploit this to their remaining shareholder benefit. And keep causing the IV and BV to diverge. Fairfax has been one of the more active participants in this area. 6) We are in a pricey stock market and finding even 10% compounders at a reasonable multiple is not that easy. Insurance is one of those industries where if you can take a long enough view of an investment, you tend to have such or better on average returns based on how it all works out with interest rates and investments etc. My guess is it will reset from 1.25 BV or so where it sits currently to closer to 1.75 BV or so over the next 5-10yrs. But it will be a very gradual process and one where management will get the opportunity to keep buying back a meaningful number of shares over time. If you have a 5-10yr time frame it's not a bad outcome.

Doesn't look like Mr. Market will agree with 2x book or 15x PE anytime soon!

A few observations from the Argentina Egyptian match. 1. Benz is amazing when you walk in the place … go to the FIFA.swag stands… There was only FIFA and Argentina gear couldn’t find any Egyptian. 2. Place was full of Argentina fans very few Egyptian, my buddy and I decided to root for Egypt because the 2 cute girls in front of us were rooting for Egypt. What was fun ?the flow of the game…. There was a long stretch where you can see the Argentinian fans, players and coaches had very tight, sphincter muscle .. 3. fan stay twenty minutes to thirty minutes after the match just cheering the Argentinian team and the Argentinian team was cheering themselves. That was amazing. 4. If all footballers are like the ones that played this game, they are all amazing actors, especially when they get touched. 5. Loud!!! It was a great experience and glad I went. and glad I wore earplugs.

Trump is a stupid tyrant.

Despite record domestic oil production levels, the United States is still a net importer of about 1.6 million barrels of crude oil a day: EIA: Weekly Petroleum Status Report