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This is also exactly what AMZN, MSFT & META calls are gonna look like. Onwards and up.

Cue GOOGL's earnings call. The CapEx train keeps going. Semis gonna double, opticals will likely triple. In the meantime, even they are gonna buy capacity from neoclouds. No way they can undercut or give a better deal to SMBs or competing wrappers than DOCN. So that's going run as well.

most podcasts/content is entertainment masquerading itself as "research". entertainment is fine just don't lie to yourself. there is a big difference between a book (or self reading financials) vs listening or watching passively to videos/podcast etc. One medium is clearly more entertainment focused. the gold standard imo for podcasts is Dave Senra (Founders), no Fairfax episode but has done Munger #329, Mark Leonard #246, Li Lu #362, Nick Sleep #365, et al. 40+ hours of reading per episode. my guess is these guys spent under 3 hours in an AI before the episode.

Yeah I like Whitney’s daily summaries. And he definitely understands the p&c insurance model ie valuing berkshire very well. He was there at the Italy conference (he co-hosts it), he liked my Fairfax pitch and wanted to share it in his newsletter.

What if US just leaves? I could see Trump just leaving and pretending that the war never happened. Trump has reached max frustration and he's finally realizing there are no options left. Iran charging a few million per tanker was always the easiest option and it still is.

You're maybe going a little too easy on them - if I want entertainment, I would hardly listen to a spiel about a boring insurance company as an investment. And if you are going to do a serious service to investors, you have to at least get some basic facts straight like the ticker, where the major earnings are from, the threats and opportunities, basic details about the big holdings like Eurobank, Poseidon and Sleep Country and, if you have to mention something like Metlen with its P/E of 0.20 (which is actually a P/E of 20), fine, but get it right, especially if you have checked it twice (how do you do that, and still get it wrong?!) As Viking says, it just goes to show that Fairfax is not easy for most retail investors. Here's a much better effort, from Whitney Tilson, today: https://stansberryresearch.com/whitney-tilsons-daily/two-pitches-for-fairfax-financial

What made the market suddenly realize they're amazing at what they're doing post the lost decade? I've only been following FFH for a couple of years so I'd like to understand why all of a sudden the market decided to reward them with an 3x post 2022? I would assume a combination of cheap valuation (below BV) + better investment strategy + higher interest rates + buybacks? I think pre-2022 the coverage and talk about FFH was even lower than it is today. And while many more people are familiar with the name today (maybe in search of a new BRK) so far that hasn't really have much of an effect. Probably the subdued growth due to softening markets leads to many investors skipping it?

I would hard disagree because there should be cumulative knowledge/expertise to rely upon, especially for "sophisticated" investors. But I don't mean to trash too much - end of day, they are entertainment oriented, I guess.

Large institutional capital is either passive or has to beat the market in the short term. These days that means owning momentum. For a long time owning quality was good enough and that’s what most active investors own and screen for. Fairfax doesn’t pass their screens. I think it’s that simple.

Hubris will eventually be this guys downfall. Either that or a stroke. https://news.sky.com/story/donald-trump-ordered-to-reveal-financial-records-in-10bn-bbc-lawsuit-13566062

The million $ question is why is it so hard for (apparently sophisticated) investors to understand and value Fairfax? Some analysts appear to have the same challenge.

HaHa! - Better entertaiment than the football played!

My short answer is let's revisit this in 20 years. Trajectories of these countries is totally different IMO.

You're joking, right?

Having to do 1 post/video a week means DD is going to be shallow...especially if you are not discussing with experts (on the subject/company)...true for every substack or podcast out there. Will Thorndike does the 50x podcast which is of the highest quality possible: 2 companies researched in 5 years, maybe 10 episodes?

The more I think about what I was listening to, it's both frustrating and annoying. Poor research and poor curiosity and real lack of knowledge on the pod's part, especially with their outward facade of expertise or due diligence.

The digression on Hamblin Watsa felt like some wasted time to me. Would have been helpful if they managed a lot of outside money and also charged massive fees to Fairfax, but as a wholly owned subsidiary these days, I don’t think there’s an issue. Puzzled why they chose to mention it as a potential candidate to add to their portfolio if it dropped to $1500 or so, while they had no problem adding Berkshire to their portfolio. The digression about how amazing a value Metlen is, was wasted. They recognized the PE seemed too low, but apparently didn’t take the step of comparing market value to recent 12 months earnings which would have shown them that the reported PE was off by a factor of 100. They could have discussed Eurobank or Poseidon, both of which are more material in terms of holding size. I think they mentioned uncertainty about potential cat losses, which indicates they may not fully understand the extent to which underwriting has improved, and prudent risk management driven deeply into the culture. They just aren’t seeing what many of us here are, which is the value of a long track record of compounding value, and the likelihood of continuing more of the same for the next decade.

I noticed a few points that didn’t sound right. Since I listened quickly, I might have missed something. It mentioned that ROE was higher for mkl, and metlen has a PE of 0.2, which he then doubled down on, claiming he checked it twice. There was also a discussion about catastrophes wiping out the business or similar events being a huge negative. It felt like it was AI generated to me.

Fairfax, Otis, BRO

It’s nice they got the ticker wrong and made the same mistake @djokovic1pointed out in their intrinsic value analysis. Granted it's not super in depth. How bad (or good) do you think the pod is? I think generally, for most of the pod about Fairfax, this forum really explains or amplifies a lot. I wonder how much or little other listeners get without the discussions here.

Car loans are right up there too...it's certainly predatory

Hope for all of us that will be laid off as a result of AI.

Shorted MU Here comes da squeeze

I don't know if I deserve credit for this or not. But far be it from me to fail to take credit where credit taking is due. I ran into the head of legal, (who I used to work with ) at a conference and mentioned that it's silly that some huge OTC companies like Constellation or Kraken Robotics are not available on Robinhood, when much smaller Nasdaq and NYSE ones are. And that I use my other brokerages because of that, and I probably wasn't alone. He asked which ones I wasn't able to trade so I wrote down a few of them on a post-it note (Kraken, Constellation, Topicus, OTCM etc) and they are all on this list

This article is based on a major assumption that compute gets cheaper and easier to obtain. Not sure why he doesn't go into this assumption due to obvious compute constraints i.e. long time to build data centers etc.