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On July 1st I always take a little sliver of the day to reflect on how lucky I was to be born in Canada... and what a time it is to be alive... then I go party with others or tramp out into the woods to be attacked by bugs! Happy Canada Day to all Canadians and to everybody who celebrates.

I thought I was the only one here with an "uncomfortably idiosyncratic portfolio". Somehow, I remain relatively comfortable with this short term underperformance. Oddly enough, days like today my portfolio frequently does the opposite of the market 1.5ish%

Kennedy Wilson likely delayed these announcements until after the acquisition by Management and Fairfax has closed. It will be interesting to see how Kennedy-Wilson grows over the coming years. Kennedy Wilson and Jamison Announce Joint Venture to Deliver 4,000 Affordable Housing Units Across the City of Los Angeles Kennedy Wilson acquires 421-unit multifamily community in Westchester County, NY for $237 Million Does anyone know if there is any truth to these statements.

Eurobank is planning to invest €1 billion by 2028 in Digital banking, including AI. There is quite a bit of detailed information from this presentation. I have pulled out a few interesting comments. https://cyprus-mail.com/2026/07/01/eurobank-unveils-e1bn-plan-to-reshape-digital-banking At the centre of the strategy is the largest technology investment programme in Eurobank’s history, with approximately €1 billion earmarked for the 2025 to 2028 period to strengthen infrastructure, cloud technologies, data capabilities, AI and new digital services. It said the strategy rests on three interconnected pillars. The first focuses on using data and AI to anticipate customer needs and deliver highly personalised services. The second aims to simplify customer interactions through conversational digital banking. The third integrates banking and non-banking services into broader digital ecosystems designed to create additional value for customers and businesses. A significant part of the presentation focused on artificial intelligence, which the bank said is playing an increasingly important role in customer service, productivity and innovation. Its AI ecosystem includes EVA, the bank’s customer virtual assistant, myEVA, an internal AI voice assistant for staff, the GenAI Factory platform and the Digital Brain programme. AI is already being used in areas including mortgage assessments, customer feedback analysis, contract processing and the development of new digital services. Eurobank said its GenAI Factory combines Microsoft Azure, EY.ai Agentic Platform and NVIDIA accelerated computing, while a strategic partnership with Fairfax Digital Services makes it one of the first banking groups in south-eastern Europe to adopt structured Agentic AI solutions. The bank is also developing an enterprise-wide Digital Brain with Accenture to integrate AI throughout customer experience and internal operations, while its Global Delivery Centre in Pune, India, established with LTM, formerly LTIMindtree, and Fairfax Digital Services, supports innovation across the group’s international operations. Eurobank added that more than 1,500 employees completed specialist AI training programmes totalling over 17,000 hours during 2025 and 2026, while the bank continues supporting the MSc in AI for Digital Transformation at the Athens University of Economics and Business. Its Digital & Technology Hub has recruited around 250 new professionals in recent years, while its Digital Factory, comprising 13 agile teams and 146 specialists, has reduced the development time for new digital products from approximately 30 weeks to just eight weeks.

They did sell their stake in a life insurer they had owned part of with White Mountains, but that is different from selling a wholly owned insurance subsidiary, which Fairfax has been known to do. https://www.wsj.com/articles/BL-MBB-40289

@John Hjorth Thanks John!

Yeah, absolutely. Though you could also argue that if we hope that the average person here is 'above-average', it's not unreasonable to have some consensus CoBF stocks, which hopefully over the longer-term will compound (as they have done historically). Part of the problem (not such a bad one...) is that a reason these have become material positions is because they've gone up a lot in the past. And so then the really tough part happens - do you trim or sell, or is that a dumb thing to do if the business is doing OK? I still don't know. And yes, six months is nothing. This topic was meant to be reasonably light-hearted, just a grumble and acknowledgement that even though I know all the rational arguments, sometimes I still struggle with it. And I find it particularly frustrating when the 'good businesses' I own (I hope!) are underperforming while one or two sectors are rocketing up, backed by a ton of retail speculators using leverage! I'm jealous!

If memory serves right, I think Berkshire's cost basis for DVA is around 15 USD!

As I said before, who knows? Better question is when does it end? My guess is we are much closer to the beginning than the end. Mind you, I'm, not talking my book. Only stock I own that is participating are long held shares of AMAT in my retirement account and my kids' investment accounts acquired more than 10 years ago when the stock traded at $16/share.

Yes, First Capital was the example I was looking for, with the huge gains they got from selling it to Mitsui Sumitomo in for $1.6b in 2017. Second place in terms of size would be the Pet insurance companies that they sold to JAB Holdings in 2022 for $1.4b. Eurolife that they sold to Eurobank for $945m last year would be the third. In contrast, I can’t think of any example of Berkshire selling an insurance asset. This is a major difference between the two insurance conglomerates, and I personally like the more flexible Fairfax approach better.

But for how long when the revenue is not sustainable?

OK, but companies that earn enough billions while the getting is good may wind up being trillion dollar companies without any moat at all.

Have to think that the recent changes at MSTR are going to make the BTC price less resilient, leading to bigger downs as/when they occurr, offset by greater confidence in the sustainability of the new lows. If you have the patience .... not a bad place to be. Good luck. SD

No? When you look at the current trillion dollar companies without Tesla/NVDA, you will find strong moats and recurring revenue.

"You can't take the same actions as everyone else and expect to outperform." Howard Marks is 100% right on that. To beat the market, your portfolio has to look different. David Swensen famously called this the "acceptance of uncomfortably idiosyncratic portfolios, which frequently appear downright imprudent in the eyes of conventional wisdom." Even on COBF, the herd mentality is real. Those are pretty bandwagon stocks to pick. It’s probably not a coincidence that the highest returns have been what only 1–2 people picked, not the ones where 5–6 people piled in. But six months is still too short to say if you are right or wrong. A half-year is a blink of an eye, and it is nowhere near enough time for a real structural value thesis to play out. At least you can hold yourself accountable after a year, although the biggest mouths on here seem to conveniently not hold themselves to account even then.

Don't most companies have little or no moat and/or operate in cyclical industries? In the mean time, they are printing money hand over fist with no end in sight. Who knows how long it lasts but earnings go straight to the balance sheet.

Ha - I don't think so - there are lots of tough people on here. I'm completely aware of the ridiculousness of it, it's a weakness on my part, but it's been very cheering to grumble about it, and hear that I'm not the only person here who has underperformed.

And so the time has come. You guys made very good points about leaving NY & staying there. But what about someone who's about the move there? Any suggestions? I've been lucky in life and my paycheck should give me the ability to afford cigarettes here ($20/pack!). I miss Iowa sometimes.

Closing the book on first half of 2026. Overall lousy compared to market index. Oh well …. 2026 H1 => 5.7% 2025 => 24.38% 2024 => 36.96% 2023 => 24.81% 2022 => -11.48% 2021 => 20.09% 2020 => 11.36% 2020-25 CAGR stands at 21%. S&P500 had a YTD gain of 10% in the same period in USD terms, double that of my gain in YTD.

Because there is no moat protecting these earnings. Barely any semi has a true moat. And the revenue is not recurring, when enough datacenters are built (and because chips are not the only bottleneck) the demand for chips will just stop, as it always has in history. Its a cyclical industry.

I didn’t try it in the end. I’m a bit like yourself, for me quality of the company is very important. I also think I’m need to know the company too, I’m not going to buy some random bank I’ve never seen or heard of, trading at 0.5 book… or whatever. So just couldn’t see myself ever actioning these types of ideas.

Thinking more about this - I remember someone wise once said to me that 4 is a big turning point, which I found very true. When your youngest hits 4, it's pretty glorious as you are out of a certain pit i.e. no nappies, no buggies etc. so moving around is so much easier for starters. It's one of the big shifts (followed by the teenage years, which are something else altogether....) So I'm sorry, because you are really in one of those super tough times with 3 under 4. The only other thing I can think - an obvious one - is I hope you and your partner are kind to yourselves and each other - it's easy for parents to beat themselves up about stuff, and worry you haven't done the right thing. It's the wild west out there - we all try our best (when we're not too tired!). Good luck!

I did for a month out of curiosity - wasn't really my thing - felt like cigar butts. I prefer quality. Problem is that these are small, illiquid things, so if every subscriber rushes to buy (esp. without reading properly), you've missed the boat. Because I'm a cheapskate, *cough* value investor, I tend to do monthlies on one or two, see as much content, and then rarely continue. But struggle to think of anything like this place, really.

The question that comes to mind is, based on current and projected earnings of some of these semi stocks, why shouldn't they trade at current prices?

@Sweet I'd ignored this thread - thought it was going to be different. I'm so sorry to hear this - I know how incredibly frustrating and upsetting stuff like this (well Parenting is Highs and Lows generally!). Hard to know what to say, but sounds like you've had lots of good advice. I know very intelligent people who started talking quite late, they were just thinking and learning in the interim. I think any reading on either side is a wonderful thing. My best wishes to you and your partner with it.