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Current Holdings


willie2013

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Portfolio

Utilities

SO

Staples

CL, CLX, KO

LO, MO, PM, RAI

Telecommunications

ORAN, T, TEF

Discretionary

MCD

Financials

AIG, FRFHX, NLY

C-prfds., GS-prfds.

Real Estate

SHLD

Energy

BP, CVX, KMI, RDS

LUKOY, OGZPY

ERF, PGH

EVEP, KMP, LGCY, PAA

Materials

SCCO, WLT

Precious Metals

TGLDX

GFI, GG, NEM

Other

Japan – DXJ

Municipals-PMX

 

Secured Puts & Covered Calls

 

AIG

4-4-14

$52.50 (Calls)

$50 (Puts)

 

DXJ

3-28-14

$50 (Calls)

 

GFI

1-17-15

$5 (Calls)

 

JCP

8-16-14

$8 (Puts)

 

RAI

8-16-14

$52.50 (Calls)

 

RDS

4-19-14

$75 (Calls)

 

SHLD

6-21-14 1-17-15

$50.42(Puts) $50 (Puts), $48 (Puts)

   

SO

4-19-14

$43 (Calls)

 

WLT

3-28-14

$14 (Calls)

 

 

1-15-16 (Not covered or secured)

IAU $16 CALLS

SLV $25 CALLS

EEM $38 PUTS

IWM $120 PUTS

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My positions:

 

18% - GLW Corning long calls. Not my #1 conviction but it has moved dramatically. I will leave it and live with the volatility for a while

10% - IMOS shares. Very low capex required today after over investment resulting in great cash flow

7%.  - MEG. Warren, my pro bono consultant, recommended these two small media companies

6%.  - LEE

5%  - GM calls. Waiting to buy more

4%.  - Toyota calls. Part undervalued, part Abenomics

4%.  - Fiat. Thanks to this board.

3%.  - VRSN calls

 

2%  - GME Gamestop long puts. Brick and mortar in age of streaming. Recently, Walmart announced itself as a competitor.

2%  - CAT/RIO puts. China construction bubble insurance policy

2%.  - misc

 

37% cash. This is my short bitcoin position.

 

All my options were purchased as 2 year LEAPS options. My biggest conviction right now are the auto companies. I'm hoping to increase positions in my 3 if they fall more.

 

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  • 10 months later...
  • 3 years later...

I'll start off since no one else is.  I'm not going to spend the time to figure out percentages, because I hold some of these in multiple accounts and others in just one account.  My largest holding right now is:

 

BAM

 

 

Other stocks which I'll just say are large percentage holdings are: (in no order)

 

APPL, AMZN, BAC-WSA, BRKB, MIDD, SYTE

 

 

Stocks which I hold a moderate amount in: (in no order)

 

MKL, POEFF, UBNT, WFCF

 

 

Other stocks I own which range from very little to almost as large as the above category: (in no order)

 

CLWY, JD, LAACZ, TDW-WSB, SHOP, JOE, NEWR, ANET, DATA, OSTK, SAIL, SINA, PRDGF

 

 

I also own crypto: (in order)

 

BTC, ETH, XMR, DASH, XTZ, tZERO

 

 

And my 401K at work only offers mutual funds, so I have it in mostly foreign stock funds to diversify away from the mostly US stocks in the rest of my portfolio.  I also have some in a midcap fund, because I notice that my portfolio is mosty either large companies or tiny ones.

 

 

And finally, I own restricted stock in the company I work for, both vested and unvested.  I try to keep the vested stock to about 10% of my portfolio, so I sell when it gets too large because of increase in price or when more vests.

 

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MIDD's an interesting one. I passed on it many years ago (2011?) because I wasn't sure about a few things, and then looked at it go multi-bagger. I haven't really looked at it in a while. How would you describe what you like best and dislike most about it these days, if you want to share?

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MIDD's an interesting one. I passed on it many years ago (2011?) because I wasn't sure about a few things, and then looked at it go multi-bagger. I haven't really looked at it in a while. How would you describe what you like best and dislike most about it these days, if you want to share?

 

I've held MIDD since 2005. I've sold a lot along the way and added back on dips, but I've had some amount of MIDD in my portfolio for over 13 years.  I really cleaned up when they aquired Turbochef and CHEF was trading as if the acquisition was not going to happen (this was right after the financial crisis and a lot of announced mergers where being cancelled), I bought a ton of CHEF and even converted most of my MIDD to CHEF only to get it back and then some after the acquisition.  I had held MIDD for a while by then and knew that MIDD had the cash and that they would go through with the acquisition even if the market was skeptical.

 

What I like about MIDD is its CEO Selim Bassoul.  He's a serial acquirer, only unlike most CEOs who try to do this, he makes it work every time.  He is a master of making acquisitions work, integrating the companies, finding synergies, and getting them to add to earnings quickly (most of the time in under a year).  He's been doing this again and again, multiple times per year, successfully at MIDD since (IIRC) 2003 or so.

 

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MIDD's an interesting one. I passed on it many years ago (2011?) because I wasn't sure about a few things, and then looked at it go multi-bagger. I haven't really looked at it in a while. How would you describe what you like best and dislike most about it these days, if you want to share?

 

I've held MIDD since 2005. I've sold a lot along the way and added back on dips, but I've had some amount of MIDD in my portfolio for over 13 years.  I really cleaned up when they aquired Turbochef and CHEF was trading as if the acquisition was not going to happen (this was right after the financial crisis and a lot of announced mergers where being cancelled), I bought a ton of CHEF and even converted most of my MIDD to CHEF only to get it back and then some after the acquisition.  I had held MIDD for a while by then and knew that MIDD had the cash and that they would go through with the acquisition even if the market was skeptical.

 

What I like about MIDD is its CEO Selim Bassoul.  He's a serial acquirer, only unlike most CEOs who try to do this, he makes it work every time.  He is a master of making acquisitions work, integrating the companies, finding synergies, and getting them to add to earnings quickly (most of the time in under a year).  He's been doing this again and again, multiple times per year, successfully at MIDD since (IIRC) 2003 or so.

 

It's definitely a bet on management. It's not like everybody in that industry is doing that well.

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I'll dump my garbage here as well. No sizings, no particular order and I removed most illiquid holdings.

 

lon:argo

lon:bxp

epa:cdu

4624:tyo

7235:tyo

7292:tyo

7399:tyo

4295:tyo

qfal:mil

qfare:mil

qfari:mil

qfid:mil

qfpol:mil

qfsoc:mil

hkg:3828

hkg:0635

hkg:6822

bda:ses

epa:ffp

cnrd

lon:rma

stly

asfi

pder

pdrx

rhdgf

brk.b

smci

sigm

weq

radh:sto

cori

snmx

call

uwn

 

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Pretty boring right now, size from top to bottom. Tobacco/Consumer ~25%, 25% REITs, 25% Energy and Industrials, 25% Healthcare/Utilities/Other. 5% dividend yield and 5-7% expected dividend growth on a portfolio level, 10-50% undervalued by my rough estimates. I won`t post 50% annual returns with this, but i also doubt that i get >-50% drawdowns :). October drawdown was ~-1.5% in $, +1% in €.

 

KMI (6.6%)

SRC

MO

SKT

MSM (5.4%)

WBA

PM

LON:BATS

SPG

D

OXY (3%)

HKG:0398 (the only netnet right now, but of course its paying a dividend and trades at a P/E<7)

FAST

KIM

TAP

XOM

CAH

T

LON:IMB

HSY (2.5%)

PPL

ENB (2%)

CCI

MPW

CVS

IRM

MDP

SYF (1.2%)

BRX

PEP

DIS

WHG

EPR

STOR

BP

AMNF

OMC

UBP

WPC

SITC (0.3%)

 

Options:

-FB puts 145$ strike 21DEC2018

 

Trade/hedge positons:

EUR futures that cover 100% of the dollar exposure with a break even stop around 1.134$.

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Frommi,

 

Your portfolio looks like a mutual fund's portfolio. Why so many?

 

1.) These are 100% of my life savings, its an irreplaceable asset base.

2.) I make mistakes, a lot of mistakes.

3.) With 10% annual returns, i can live a comfortable life. Why risk what i have for something i don`t need?

4.) For 99% of people in the world my portfolio is already very concentrated.

5.) I did a lot of tests with different ranking criteria on my watchlist and the Top15 portfolios always came out as having the best returns. I don`t know why that is, but that is the reason my maximum position size is 6.6% (1/15).  There was only one ranking that was better and that was past 4 week return, Top5 was best there, but Top3 was a lot worse, so i don`t trust it. And now the most important aspect: Handpicking stocks out of my ranking ALWAYS performed worse.

 

My conclusion: I am a bad stockpicker, but i know how to create portfolios that outperform.

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Frommi - It's important to know what you're good at and capitalize on it.

 

Majority of my holdings for myself and clients (approximate percentage)

 

20% - Self-Storage Business

15% - Liberty SiriusXM Group

15% - Brookfield Asset Management (Non-IRA) / Partners Value Investments LP (IRA Accounts)

7% - GCI Liberty

5% - Trupanion

5% - Discovery

5% - Facebook

5% - Amazon

5% - Fiat

5% - Markel

 

 

 

 

 

Frommi,

 

Your portfolio looks like a mutual fund's portfolio. Why so many?

 

1.) These are 100% of my life savings, its an irreplaceable asset base.

2.) I make mistakes, a lot of mistakes.

3.) With 10% annual returns, i can live a comfortable life. Why risk what i have for something i don`t need?

4.) For 99% of people in the world my portfolio is already very concentrated.

5.) I did a lot of tests with different ranking criteria on my watchlist and the Top15 portfolios always came out as having the best returns. I don`t know why that is, but that is the reason my maximum position size is 6.6% (1/15).  There was only one ranking that was better and that was past 4 week return, Top5 was best there, but Top3 was a lot worse, so i don`t trust it. And now the most important aspect: Handpicking stocks out of my ranking ALWAYS performed worse.

 

My conclusion: I am a bad stockpicker, but i know how to create portfolios that outperform.

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MIDD's an interesting one. I passed on it many years ago (2011?) because I wasn't sure about a few things, and then looked at it go multi-bagger. I haven't really looked at it in a while. How would you describe what you like best and dislike most about it these days, if you want to share?

 

I've held MIDD since 2005. I've sold a lot along the way and added back on dips, but I've had some amount of MIDD in my portfolio for over 13 years.  I really cleaned up when they aquired Turbochef and CHEF was trading as if the acquisition was not going to happen (this was right after the financial crisis and a lot of announced mergers where being cancelled), I bought a ton of CHEF and even converted most of my MIDD to CHEF only to get it back and then some after the acquisition.  I had held MIDD for a while by then and knew that MIDD had the cash and that they would go through with the acquisition even if the market was skeptical.

 

What I like about MIDD is its CEO Selim Bassoul. He's a serial acquirer, only unlike most CEOs who try to do this, he makes it work every time.  He is a master of making acquisitions work, integrating the companies, finding synergies, and getting them to add to earnings quickly (most of the time in under a year).  He's been doing this again and again, multiple times per year, successfully at MIDD since (IIRC) 2003 or so.

 

It's definitely a bet on management. It's not like everybody in that industry is doing that well.

 

Yes, 100% a bet on management. They are the best operators in the business.  They have a nack for buying mediocre companies cheap and making them profitable.  My two worries is that Bassoul gets hit by a bus or at some point they will just get too big and will need huge acquisitions just to move the needle at all. I’m not sure at what size that is.

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Based on current market values:

 

Altius - ATUSF/ALS - 8.9%

Sberbank - SBRCY - 6.9%

Fairfax - FRFHF/FFH - 7.1%

Fiat Chrysler - FCAU & Options - 5.8%

Freddie Mac - FMCCJ - 5.7%

Santander - SAN/BSBR/BSMX/BSAC - 4.4%

Exor - EXO - 4.3%

Lukoil - LUKOY - 3.1%

Gazprom - OGZPY - 3.1%

Seritage - SRG - 2.9%

 

 

EM Betas - VEMIX/PEFIX/FFXDF - 34.6%

European Betas - PTSIX - 8.0%

 

Doesn't sum to 100% - all options are valued at notional exposure and smaller positions plus cash were left out

 

Macro Themes reflected in the portfolio:

 

Long Real Assets & Real Asset Producers (O&G companies, base metal royalties, REITS, massive EM overweight)

Expectation for higher interest rates (Fairfax Financial)

Long Global Equities vs U.S. equities (massive overweight to EM and little U.S. exposure)

 

 

 

 

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Based on current market values:

 

Altius - ATUSF/ALS - 8.9%

Sberbank - SBRCY - 6.9%

Fairfax - FRFHF/FFH - 7.1%

Fiat Chrysler - FCAU & Options - 5.8%

Freddie Mac - FMCCJ - 5.7%

Santander - SAN/BSBR/BSMX/BSAC - 4.4%

Exor - EXO - 4.3%

Lukoil - LUKOY - 3.1%

Gazprom - OGZPY - 3.1%

Seritage - SRG - 2.9%

 

 

EM Betas - VEMIX/PEFIX/FFXDF - 34.6%

European Betas - PTSIX - 8.0%

 

Doesn't sum to 100% - all options are valued at notional exposure and smaller positions plus cash were left out

 

Macro Themes reflected in the portfolio:

 

Long Real Assets & Real Asset Producers (O&G companies, base metal royalties, REITS, massive EM overweight)

Expectation for higher interest rates (Fairfax Financial)

Long Global Equities vs U.S. equities (massive overweight to EM and little U.S. exposure)

 

Are you playing a shorter term trend with EM overweight -- i.e. USD weakening and mean reversion over the next 3 months. Or is this a 5 to 10 year bet? The hard part about EM growth is that it's so beholden to the whims of China

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Based on current market values:

 

Altius - ATUSF/ALS - 8.9%

Sberbank - SBRCY - 6.9%

Fairfax - FRFHF/FFH - 7.1%

Fiat Chrysler - FCAU & Options - 5.8%

Freddie Mac - FMCCJ - 5.7%

Santander - SAN/BSBR/BSMX/BSAC - 4.4%

Exor - EXO - 4.3%

Lukoil - LUKOY - 3.1%

Gazprom - OGZPY - 3.1%

Seritage - SRG - 2.9%

 

 

EM Betas - VEMIX/PEFIX/FFXDF - 34.6%

European Betas - PTSIX - 8.0%

 

Doesn't sum to 100% - all options are valued at notional exposure and smaller positions plus cash were left out

 

Macro Themes reflected in the portfolio:

 

Long Real Assets & Real Asset Producers (O&G companies, base metal royalties, REITS, massive EM overweight)

Expectation for higher interest rates (Fairfax Financial)

Long Global Equities vs U.S. equities (massive overweight to EM and little U.S. exposure)

 

Are you playing a shorter term trend with EM overweight -- i.e. USD weakening and mean reversion over the next 3 months. Or is this a 5 to 10 year bet? The hard part about EM growth is that it's so beholden to the whims of China

 

Mostly the latter - have been massively overweight EM since 2015ish. Trimmed some in January, but now it's all back on the table plus some.

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