What are you buying today?

[Eldad]

On 6/12/2024 at 9:45 AM, Jaygo said:

 

Better to be lucky than good. Very big bounces in all of these today with the slightest hint of a rate cut.

 

A podcast a while back about the US housing sector really opened my eyes to the potential here. There are millions of homes in shortfall and 10's of millions in need of rehab, gut or rebuild. I think this is a sector you can kind of just bank on to work for another 10plus years.

 

I think an easy way to play it is with Lowes since the capital allocation is quite good. Ive gone smaller and more niche with hardware, lumber, supplies and spray equipment. Reichelue, Sherwin and Site are all pretty good picks too. 

Jeldwen and masonite for a possible rebound is interesting too. 

 

I am a firm believer in the continued global migration to NA. It may be Canada or the US but homes and housing will need to be built at a gdp plus number for a very long time.

 

I also dare say this may be one of the biggest beneficiaries of tech that still goes unrecognised. Yeah robot call centres are cool but have you seen robotic band saws! much cooler, much safer and they dont take smoke breaks.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Good thoughts. GGG might be my favorite company. But I feel that this sector has so much further to fall. Might as well read a couple of books, go fishing, and check back in 3 months is how I’m feeling about this market. 

[Value418]

On 6/12/2024 at 9:45 AM, Jaygo said:

 

Better to be lucky than good. Very big bounces in all of these today with the slightest hint of a rate cut.

 

A podcast a while back about the US housing sector really opened my eyes to the potential here. There are millions of homes in shortfall and 10's of millions in need of rehab, gut or rebuild. I think this is a sector you can kind of just bank on to work for another 10plus years.

 

I think an easy way to play it is with Lowes since the capital allocation is quite good. Ive gone smaller and more niche with hardware, lumber, supplies and spray equipment. Reichelue, Sherwin and Site are all pretty good picks too. 

Jeldwen and masonite for a possible rebound is interesting too. 

 

I am a firm believer in the continued global migration to NA. It may be Canada or the US but homes and housing will need to be built at a gdp plus number for a very long time.

 

I also dare say this may be one of the biggest beneficiaries of tech that still goes unrecognised. Yeah robot call centres are cool but have you seen robotic band saws! much cooler, much safer and they dont take smoke breaks.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Do you mind sharing the podcast you listened to?  Thank you.

[Jaygo]

4 hours ago, Value418 said:

Do you mind sharing the podcast you listened to?  Thank you.

Unfortunately I don’t recall exactly what it was. I want to say it was a business breakdowns on one of the major home builders. 

[Xerxes]

5 minutes ago, Jaygo said:

Unfortunately I don’t recall exactly what it was. I want to say it was a business breakdowns on one of the major home builders. 

these ones ?

from Wealthtrack. 

he talks a bit about Toll Brothers and the whole segment. Pretty good one. 

 

[Jaygo]

Ok now you got me searching. 
 

it was business breakdowns or colossus. DR Horton from march 2024

 

[Head of Roller coasters]

Added Sandvik STO:SAND.

 

[Value418]

Perfect.  Thank you much!

[Mephistopheles]

Added to Autonation. Buyback machine trading at like 10x earnings or something with high returns of capital and a great management team. What more can you ask for?

Edited Friday at 05:03 PM by Mephistopheles

[winjitsu]

44 minutes ago, Mephistopheles said:

Added to Autonation. Buyback machine trading at like 10x earnings or something with high returns of capital and a great management team. What more can you ask for?

Margins reverting to pre-covid levels, so not a real 10x.

 

Though it's a great company, and that entire industry, LAD, AN, GPI, ABG, really shows that iron sharpens iron. All making great moves. I'm in GPI

[Mephistopheles]

15 minutes ago, winjitsu said:

Margins reverting to pre-covid levels, so not a real 10x.

 

Though it's a great company, and that entire industry, LAD, AN, GPI, ABG, really shows that iron sharpens iron. All making great moves. I'm in GPI

 

If you sub in 2019's pre tax margin's to last year's revenues, the stock is at 12x, so yea a bit over 10x. But currently it's a bit under 10x. I just made up the # 10 bc I was too lazy to check but it's right in that ballpark. 

 

Agreed it's a great industry. I have only looked at AN and LAD so far. What do you think of LAD? Not nearly as much in terms of buybacks so that's why I avoided it. What made you buy GPI?

Edited Friday at 06:05 PM by Mephistopheles

[winjitsu]

4 hours ago, Mephistopheles said:

 

If you sub in 2019's pre tax margin's to last year's revenues, the stock is at 12x, so yea a bit over 10x. But currently it's a bit under 10x. I just made up the # 10 bc I was too lazy to check but it's right in that ballpark. 

 

Agreed it's a great industry. I have only looked at AN and LAD so far. What do you think of LAD? Not nearly as much in terms of buybacks so that's why I avoided it. What made you buy GPI?

 

Saw that Greg Alexander (https://www.dataroma.com/m/stock.php?sym=GPI) had been adding. 

 

Looking at just the last call transcript, they seem to be the only player w/ growing SSS and maintaining the margins. Their product mix seems better (more Toyota) and geography (more Texas / South). Trading at 8x now, so maybe 10x normalized? Anyways a couple turns cheaper, disciplined growth between buybacks and acquisitions. 

Edit: Missed your comment about LAD. Just different models, AN more focused on buybacks, whereas LAD more focused on acquiring revenue. LAD did have the pendragon and big UK acquisition so I'm not sure what to make of that. 

 

But I think the roll-up model has lots of room. I have some wealthy acquaintance that are in the dealership business and I have no doubt a corporation coming in there with a clear playbook and best practices can rachet up earnings. There's some obvious advantages to size as well for inventory and LAD and AN are the two biggest now.

Edited Friday at 10:32 PM by winjitsu

[Whensthepaintdry?]

Should Carmart be looked at completely different because of the low income financing they do? 

[Head of Roller coasters]

Established a bridgehead on Engcon AB (STO: ENGCON-B) – a Swedish manufacturer of tiltrotators for excavators.   

[Tenerife]

XPS:LSE, UK based pension actuarial services

[fareastwarriors]

picked up more JOE and nibbling on Fairfax

[nsx5200]

My buy limit price got triggered, and caught some baby Berkshire.

[bathtime]

LVMH

[Malmqky]

Hershey

[valueventures]

On 6/14/2024 at 5:06 PM, nsx5200 said:

My buy limit price got triggered, and caught some baby Berkshire.

Fairfax or Nelnet or something else?

[thowed]

Top-up nibbling on FFH and TVK.

 

Still wondering if next 2 weeks will see pre-tax-change sell-offs in companies like these which have such good performance.

[Kizion]

A bit Coupang (20% position now) and Pluxee, LVMH and a bit more Solvay

[Saluki]

3 hours ago, Kizion said:

A bit Coupang (20% position now) and Pluxee, LVMH and a bit more Solvay

 

I picked up a few shares of CPNG too, but it's less than 5% for me.  The article I posted hasn't been on Yahoo yet, so I suspect more selling when it does, and if it hits the teens again, I may start buying in bigger size. 

 

I trimmed some VTS and STNG, and added to some smaller positions that I'm still building. (Tsakos, Kraken, FRPH). 

[Head of Roller coasters]

Added a few shares of the crown jewel of the Nordic insurance business: Sampo (HEL:SAMPO).  

Edited 18 hours ago by Head of Roller coasters

[DooDiligence]

More HSY.

[cash_incinerator]

Added a little HSY