Gregmal Posted December 1, 2020 Posted December 1, 2020 Bought back all the GEOS I flipped. Selling here is purely related to boot from the index. Volume is great for once too.
Gregmal Posted December 2, 2020 Posted December 2, 2020 Added a few more GEOS, SWKH, OPK calls, sold a few more PSTH puts, and started some DKS.
bathtime Posted December 3, 2020 Posted December 3, 2020 INMD, OTCM nspo, what's your take on INMD and their devices? I saw Ibex has it as a top holding, and I respect their research. However, management looks a bit sketchy, as elaborated on in this short piece: http://www.mavalue.org/research/inmd-dont-get-your-face-burned-off/
BG2008 Posted December 3, 2020 Posted December 3, 2020 Bought back all the GEOS I flipped. Selling here is purely related to boot from the index. Volume is great for once too. I second GEOS. Bought a little bit and followed Gregmal into this. It's great little trade sized at 1%. That's exactly what it should be, no more no less. Trade up 15-20%, dump it. Trade down, buy a little more. Liquidation is $11, but you know what they say about cigar butts.
Cardboard Posted December 3, 2020 Posted December 3, 2020 Bought some Suncorio. This one is due for a big re-rating. Gasoline price going up. Western Canada egress improving with Line 3 and TMX construction on-going. Gulf Coast refineries starved for heavy with Venezuela and Mexico production way down. Really short term: Opec+ should extend existing cuts into Q1 or weak demand season today. This is a risk but, fundamentals mid-term still fine. Would also like to think that UAE and Saudi should solve differences easier than Saudi and Russia back in March and even they quickly addressed after fiasco. Cardboard
Gregmal Posted December 3, 2020 Posted December 3, 2020 Bought back all the GEOS I flipped. Selling here is purely related to boot from the index. Volume is great for once too. I second GEOS. Bought a little bit and followed Gregmal into this. It's great little trade sized at 1%. That's exactly what it should be, no more no less. Trade up 15-20%, dump it. Trade down, buy a little more. Liquidation is $11, but you know what they say about cigar butts. Sheet, man. I guess you know what I did with a nice chunk of my position today then....
BG2008 Posted December 3, 2020 Posted December 3, 2020 Bought back all the GEOS I flipped. Selling here is purely related to boot from the index. Volume is great for once too. I second GEOS. Bought a little bit and followed Gregmal into this. It's great little trade sized at 1%. That's exactly what it should be, no more no less. Trade up 15-20%, dump it. Trade down, buy a little more. Liquidation is $11, but you know what they say about cigar butts. Sheet, man. I guess you know what I did with a nice chunk of my position today then.... Thanks for reminding me. I guess 15% in 6 round trip is the same as 90% or something like. Plus, you don't get mad at your stock not working.
Gregmal Posted December 3, 2020 Posted December 3, 2020 Trimmed the GEOS and some more CRSP, paid down some margin and bought a little GS.
lnofeisone Posted December 4, 2020 Posted December 4, 2020 Added 1/3 short position in LMND after seeing my small short be very much worthless. Not sure what Motley Fool sees in this that is so transcending of AI/ML that Geico or Progressive don't already have or can't buy.
lnofeisone Posted December 4, 2020 Posted December 4, 2020 Took down some PTICU IPO I'm not up to date on my SPACs. What's the deal with PTICU?
Gregmal Posted December 4, 2020 Posted December 4, 2020 Took down some PTICU IPO I'm not up to date on my SPACs. What's the deal with PTICU? Nothing special. Last Proptech deal bought Porch which is a bit of a turd but I did alright with it. I have certain relationships with book runners for these and have been doing them for years(well before the spac mania started). Part of the deal is that its kind of pay to play. If they can count on you to take a few thousand shares you'll keep getting allocation; so I do. Its nearly impossible to lose money on just the units at a $10 price. What Ive found is there is almost a guaranteed 2-3% you'll make simply holding from IPO through day 50 when the warrants separate. So I do. Simple, and not worth overthinking.
RichardGibbons Posted December 5, 2020 Posted December 5, 2020 Added 1/3 short position in LMND after seeing my small short be very much worthless. Not sure what Motley Fool sees in this that is so transcending of AI/ML that Geico or Progressive don't already have or can't buy. I don't know the company well, but, having worked as a tech person in an insurance-related company, insurers often don't seem to have the culture to adopt market-changing technological solutions. I agree that something like this that seems to be the obvious strategy for tradition insurers. But it isn't necessarily something that those traditional insurers can actually execute.
lnofeisone Posted December 5, 2020 Posted December 5, 2020 Added 1/3 short position in LMND after seeing my small short be very much worthless. Not sure what Motley Fool sees in this that is so transcending of AI/ML that Geico or Progressive don't already have or can't buy. I don't know the company well, but, having worked as a tech person in an insurance-related company, insurers often don't seem to have the culture to adopt market-changing technological solutions. I agree that something like this that seems to be the obvious strategy for tradition insurers. But it isn't necessarily something that those traditional insurers can actually execute. Traditional insurances had AI/ML for decades. They called it statistics. I haven't seen anything revolutionary (e.g., Tesla was the only EV for a while) out of Lemonade and they aren't price competitive if I have a car + rent/own. Throw in challenges with renters in big cities, at minimum there will be turbulence in the next few quarters as older policies start to roll off. Just my 2 cents and I was wrong on LMND stock before.
RichardGibbons Posted December 7, 2020 Posted December 7, 2020 Traditional insurances had AI/ML for decades. They called it statistics. No, they didn't, and I'm not quite sure why you'd pretend these are the same thing.
lnofeisone Posted December 7, 2020 Posted December 7, 2020 Traditional insurances had AI/ML for decades. They called it statistics. No, they didn't, and I'm not quite sure why you'd pretend these are the same thing. On a practical level, ML uses historic data (usually entire dataset, let's ignore train-test-split for a second) to make generalizable predictions. Statistics draw inferences from a sample. To make statistics ML, just up your sample size to make it population size ;). I can walk you through the same path to show you how AI is basically the same thing (starting with perception). I'd love for you to explain what is it that makes you think I'm pretending? Generally, AI/ML fields borrow heavily from statistics. Sure they are different if you take the purist approach (e.g., ML predicts based on passive observations and AI implies agent interaction with the environment to maximize chances of goal achievement). Sure, other fields are contributing (EE, CS, etc.) and some of the latest algorithms don't come from the field of statistics but at the core, these are all statistical methods (see the assumption with any algorithm that is available today). The reality of things is that what changed the field are three things: 1) availability for computing power (AWS, GCP, etc.) and 2) data, lots of it 3) fusion of different methods (e.g., TensorFlow). Feel free to let me know what insurance-specific algorithm(s) Lemonade has that is not rooted in statistics that are not available to Progressive, Geico, etc. I say insurance-specific because I'm sure Lemonade, by virtue of being new (i.e., no cultural or digital transformations necessary), can rapidly deploy a bag of algorithms to help with processing (robotics process automation), translation (nlp/nlg), etc. So is the premise that they are an efficient back office?
BG2008 Posted December 7, 2020 Posted December 7, 2020 Trimmed the GEOS and some more CRSP, paid down some margin and bought a little GS. Any news for GEOS to trade up 30% since that day of forced selling?
Gregmal Posted December 7, 2020 Posted December 7, 2020 Trimmed the GEOS and some more CRSP, paid down some margin and bought a little GS. Any news for GEOS to trade up 30% since that day of forced selling? Only news I saw was the $6 to ~$8 move which in a round about way screamed, "ALWAYS TAKE ADVANTAGE OF FORCED SELLERS!"... I've trimmed position down again to about half; I think the rest I'll layer out of in the 8s. I would not be surprised to see a sale of the company though. The buyback was actually intentionally, or unintentionally, brilliantly timed as well.
BG2008 Posted December 7, 2020 Posted December 7, 2020 Trimmed the GEOS and some more CRSP, paid down some margin and bought a little GS. Any news for GEOS to trade up 30% since that day of forced selling? Only news I saw was the $6 to ~$8 move which in a round about way screamed, "ALWAYS TAKE ADVANTAGE OF FORCED SELLERS!"... I've trimmed position down again to about half; I think the rest I'll layer out of in the 8s. I would not be surprised to see a sale of the company though. The buyback was actually intentionally, or unintentionally, brilliantly timed as well. Thank you IBKR outage for forcing me to hold this into the $8s, still can't log in though
Gregmal Posted December 7, 2020 Posted December 7, 2020 The best part about IB is if you call in to their "trade desk", you'll probably get the order in right as the internet login gets fixed.....in about an hour!
aws Posted December 7, 2020 Posted December 7, 2020 Both Robinhood and IBKR were down this morning, and yet somehow Robinhood is the one to be back online first.
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