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What are you buying today?


LowIQinvestor

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FPH (Five Points Holdings)

+Spun out of LNR, prematurely, in 2017.

+Owns three massive, but irreplaceable, tracts of land in:

    Irvine (Orange County)

    Valencia (N. LA County)

    Candlestick/ SF Shipyards (San Francisco)

 

Valencia, FKA, Newhall Ranch, went through years of litigation, but just started selling finished lots three months ago.

 

The ownership structure is confusing.

 

They are well-capitalized.  They will ride out the storm and be in great shape when things calm down. 

 

The CEO is highly-regarded and is a hero....  Last week, he was driving around Orange County, buying black market N95 masks with his own money to deliver to hospitals. 

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DHT

 

EURN

 

Can anyone spell C-O-N-T-A-N-G-O? Asymmetric play on crude storage squeeze. Oil market ain't buying the lies Trumpy is selling them.

 

Dalal--we are seeing the world in a very similar way these days.  Ships going to earn their market cap in a year.

 

You guys are 2 weeks late on the tanker trade. Tanker storage does not make much sense at anywhere near today's day rates. You really need oil to reverse everything it has done in the last 24 hours

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DHT

 

EURN

 

Can anyone spell C-O-N-T-A-N-G-O? Asymmetric play on crude storage squeeze. Oil market ain't buying the lies Trumpy is selling them.

 

Dalal--we are seeing the world in a very similar way these days.  Ships going to earn their market cap in a year.

 

You guys are 2 weeks late on the tanker trade. Tanker storage does not make much sense at anywhere near today's day rates. You really need oil to reverse everything it has done in the last 24 hours

 

Skate where the puck is going.  Nothing changed by Trump's tweets except a spike to spot.  I don't see how there won't be a massive oversupply of crude for the foreseeable future.  Day rates move around, but the overall thesis is pretty good if you believe there will be a significant oversupply.

 

Not a major fan of tankers FWIW, but think the trade makes sense. 

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DHT

 

EURN

 

Can anyone spell C-O-N-T-A-N-G-O? Asymmetric play on crude storage squeeze. Oil market ain't buying the lies Trumpy is selling them.

 

Dalal--we are seeing the world in a very similar way these days.  Ships going to earn their market cap in a year.

 

You guys are 2 weeks late on the tanker trade. Tanker storage does not make much sense at anywhere near today's day rates. You really need oil to reverse everything it has done in the last 24 hours

 

Skate where the puck is going.  Nothing changed by Trump's tweets except a spike to spot.  I don't see how there won't be a massive oversupply of crude for the foreseeable future.  Day rates move around, but the overall thesis is pretty good if you believe there will be a significant oversupply.

 

Not a major fan of tankers FWIW, but think the trade makes sense.

 

I'm having trouble with this one as the thesis seems very obvious. If everyone knows that Wayne is going for a backdoor tip-in, and they just let him skate there, then is he really in that great of a scoring position?

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DHT

 

EURN

 

Can anyone spell C-O-N-T-A-N-G-O? Asymmetric play on crude storage squeeze. Oil market ain't buying the lies Trumpy is selling them.

 

Dalal--we are seeing the world in a very similar way these days.  Ships going to earn their market cap in a year.

 

You guys are 2 weeks late on the tanker trade. Tanker storage does not make much sense at anywhere near today's day rates. You really need oil to reverse everything it has done in the last 24 hours

 

Skate where the puck is going.  Nothing changed by Trump's tweets except a spike to spot.  I don't see how there won't be a massive oversupply of crude for the foreseeable future.  Day rates move around, but the overall thesis is pretty good if you believe there will be a significant oversupply.

 

Not a major fan of tankers FWIW, but think the trade makes sense.

 

I'm having trouble with this one as the thesis seems very obvious. If everyone knows that Wayne is going for a backdoor tip-in, and they just let him skate there, then is he really in that great of a scoring position?

 

I agree. The tanker storage trade is no secret. It's all over Bloomberg TV, FT, etc. I was in the trade and when I saw all the media attention I got nervous and had my finger on the trigger. Sold the second trump tweeted.

 

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+Blue collar mobile home parks in the Midwest.  If they are bought right and operated well, they are coupon clippers.

 

Is your interest in Midwest mobile home parks a function of that region being particularly attractive vs. other regions, for some reason. Or is it your stomping grounds? If you have some history with this asset class, what have you seen in terms of cap rate compression?

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DHT

 

EURN

 

Can anyone spell C-O-N-T-A-N-G-O? Asymmetric play on crude storage squeeze. Oil market ain't buying the lies Trumpy is selling them.

 

Dalal--we are seeing the world in a very similar way these days.  Ships going to earn their market cap in a year.

 

You guys are 2 weeks late on the tanker trade. Tanker storage does not make much sense at anywhere near today's day rates. You really need oil to reverse everything it has done in the last 24 hours

 

Skate where the puck is going.  Nothing changed by Trump's tweets except a spike to spot.  I don't see how there won't be a massive oversupply of crude for the foreseeable future.  Day rates move around, but the overall thesis is pretty good if you believe there will be a significant oversupply.

 

Not a major fan of tankers FWIW, but think the trade makes sense.

 

I'm having trouble with this one as the thesis seems very obvious. If everyone knows that Wayne is going for a backdoor tip-in, and they just let him skate there, then is he really in that great of a scoring position?

 

I agree. The tanker storage trade is no secret. It's all over Bloomberg TV, FT, etc. I was in the trade and when I saw all the media attention I got nervous and had my finger on the trigger. Sold the second trump tweeted.

 

I don't see any way that cuts get anywhere close to the 20 million barrel/day oversupply.  Would add on an OPEC cut announcement next week, as I just don't see how the necessary cuts are at all credible.

 

Might not work out, but if the oversupply persists, tanker companies will have a P/E of 1 during supercontango. 

 

I'm not quick on the trigger based on spot rate changes.  There is a structural problem that I don't see any way to address.

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re: Midwestern Mobile Homes parks:

1) Most towns where I buy are economically stable.  They were not hit too hard by  GFC.

2) At the time, not a ton of competition from PE firms, wealthy private individuals, etc.  It is now more competitive, but I was able to find a good opportunity.

3) Prior to CV-19, cap rates were 5.5% for institutional-quality, larger assets to 7% for lower quality stuff. 

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GOOG

VZ

T

CTL

RTX

PCYO

BAC

 

The market did come down the last few days, were you trading out prior to that? Essentially asking whether you are slowly accumulating or simply trading around the market volatility?

 

For me I bought some WFC, T the last few days. Was planning on buying some more WFC today but was caught up and didn't have time. Hopefully further opportunity presents itself!

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GOOG

VZ

T

CTL

RTX

PCYO

BAC

 

The market did come down the last few days, were you trading out prior to that? Essentially asking whether you are slowly accumulating or simply trading around the market volatility?

 

For me I bought some WFC, T the last few days. Was planning on buying some more WFC today but was caught up and didn't have time. Hopefully further opportunity presents itself!

 

I was trading in and out of GOOG and a few others but started to accumulate in the above positions today. Still have quite a bit of cash and continued cash flow that I’ll deploy if we keep going lower. Timing is too hard. Less stressful to just dca on good companies and think 20 years down the line.

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