boilermaker75 Posted June 12, 2018 Posted June 12, 2018 Thanks GFP, a week out is often a nice sweet spot! Good trade. I like BRK at 193.80 and I like $600... Either way is nice. Its great to sell these close dated options on a Friday (before holiday weekends are even better) - even though it's all supposed to be priced in, I find that once it becomes the week of expiry, people's appetite for allowing nice premium diminishes quickly. Wrote 5 June 15 expiration 195 strike BRKB puts for $1.20 per share
boilermaker75 Posted June 13, 2018 Posted June 13, 2018 My favorite holiday week to write puts is Thanksgiving. The market doesn't move much on that Friday so it is almost like Wednesday is expiration. Good trade. I like BRK at 193.80 and I like $600... Either way is nice. Its great to sell these close dated options on a Friday (before holiday weekends are even better) - even though it's all supposed to be priced in, I find that once it becomes the week of expiry, people's appetite for allowing nice premium diminishes quickly. Wrote 5 June 15 expiration 195 strike BRKB puts for $1.20 per share
oplia Posted June 13, 2018 Posted June 13, 2018 RCII trades at 12% spread to acquisition offer. Rejection by the board would indicate BoD's (controlled by activist investor) conviction in turnaround and far higher valuation. So hard to see reasons for such spread to exists. More detailed discussion here: https://www.specialsituationinvestments.com/2018/02/rent-a-center-rcii-expected-acquisition-60-upside/
oplia Posted June 14, 2018 Posted June 14, 2018 RCII management initially rejects Vintage improved offer, but then after Vintage makes the offer public, RCII starts considering it. Bizarre situation. http://investor.rentacenter.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=90764&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=2353942 http://investor.rentacenter.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=90764&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=2354323
gfp Posted June 14, 2018 Posted June 14, 2018 Back at the BRK.B trough... Looks like you might get your shares this month Boilermaker!
boilermaker75 Posted June 14, 2018 Posted June 14, 2018 Back at the BRK.B trough... Looks like you might get your shares this month Boilermaker! Yes and I wrote a couple of more puts, expiration tomorrow strike price $192.50 for $0.75 per share.
gfp Posted June 14, 2018 Posted June 14, 2018 Back at the BRK.B trough... Looks like you might get your shares this month Boilermaker! Yes and I wrote a couple of more puts, expiration tomorrow strike price $192.50 for $0.75 per share. Great minds think alike, but my sell order for two at .99 each never got filled.. (same contract)
boilermaker75 Posted June 14, 2018 Posted June 14, 2018 Back at the BRK.B trough... Looks like you might get your shares this month Boilermaker! Yes and I wrote a couple of more puts, expiration tomorrow strike price $192.50 for $0.75 per share. Great minds think alike, but my sell order for two at .99 each never got filled.. (same contract) I wish I had your mind, and knowledge, when it comes to investing!
Mephistopheles Posted June 15, 2018 Posted June 15, 2018 I've been writing puts aggressively on Berkshire. My favorite is an $18 premium for $200 strike January 2020 put. Break even price $182...in 2020. Feel pretty good about that one
Lakesider Posted June 15, 2018 Posted June 15, 2018 I'm pretty ignorant and don't trade options myself. What if there is a health issue with Warren or Charlie around the time of expiration and the equity is way down? Is this a problem or are you just trading these on a shorter time frame?
Spekulatius Posted June 15, 2018 Posted June 15, 2018 Bought a few PDER. Starter position. At least, I should get the quarterly and annual reports now.
gfp Posted June 15, 2018 Posted June 15, 2018 Sure seems like a long time to tie up that capital in exchange for less than 10% maximum return. I wouldn't be worried either that Berkshire will trade below 182 in a year and a half. But there is a chance that the shares are materially higher by then and I would rather participate on the long side of a great business where I can completely defer my gains tax indefinitely. Sometimes long dated calls on the long side are attractive, but I never sell long dated puts. When Berkshire did it, they weren't required to post collateral. You are. I've been writing puts aggressively on Berkshire. My favorite is an $18 premium for $200 strike January 2020 put. Break even price $182...in 2020. Feel pretty good about that one
boilermaker75 Posted June 15, 2018 Posted June 15, 2018 I'm pretty ignorant and don't trade options myself. What if there is a health issue with Warren or Charlie around the time of expiration and the equity is way down? Is this a problem or are you just trading these on a shorter time frame? That issue for being shot puts is the same issue someone would have being long BRK stock.
gfp Posted June 15, 2018 Posted June 15, 2018 Yeah, what Mike said.. But it really does beg the question - how much do you think this bag of cash is going to fall [in market price] if Warren dies tomorrow? The company starts buying their own equity in size something like 12% below the current market price. Retains all earnings, so every passing day there is more money in the bag. There are other things that keep me up at night, being long or synthetic long Berkshire stock at 192.50 isn't one of them. I'm pretty ignorant and don't trade options myself. What if there is a health issue with Warren or Charlie around the time of expiration and the equity is way down? Is this a problem or are you just trading these on a shorter time frame?
DooDiligence Posted June 15, 2018 Posted June 15, 2018 More Berkshire. Up to a 10% allocation at cost. Should just go all in but I'm a grazer.
Jurgis Posted June 15, 2018 Posted June 15, 2018 But it really does beg the question - how much do you think this bag of cash is going to fall [in market price] if Warren dies tomorrow? I think you guys are overconfident. BRK has fallen 50% top to bottom 2 or 3 times in its history. It can happen again. And if Warren was dead, there's no guarantee it would recover from 50% drop. ::)
Spekulatius Posted June 15, 2018 Posted June 15, 2018 One never knows, but 1.2x book ( which could be falling when things go badly) is not necessarily the floor. I did a small add at $190 in one account . My next buy would be around $180.
gokou3 Posted June 15, 2018 Posted June 15, 2018 More PVF.UN (Partners Value LP). 30%+ discount to NAV now.
DooDiligence Posted June 15, 2018 Posted June 15, 2018 But it really does beg the question - how much do you think this bag of cash is going to fall [in market price] if Warren dies tomorrow? I think you guys are overconfident. BRK has fallen 50% top to bottom 2 or 3 times in its history. It can happen again. And if Warren was dead, there's no guarantee it would recover from 50% drop. ::) 0.6x (+/-) book would be AWESOME! I'd probably mortgage my home 4 that.
Jurgis Posted June 15, 2018 Posted June 15, 2018 But it really does beg the question - how much do you think this bag of cash is going to fall [in market price] if Warren dies tomorrow? I think you guys are overconfident. BRK has fallen 50% top to bottom 2 or 3 times in its history. It can happen again. And if Warren was dead, there's no guarantee it would recover from 50% drop. ::) 0.6x (+/-) book would be AWESOME! I'd probably mortgage my home 4 that. You clearly forget that when stocks owned by BRK fall, book also falls.
writser Posted June 15, 2018 Posted June 15, 2018 And if it trades there chances of getting a second mortgage are probably zero.
DooDiligence Posted June 15, 2018 Posted June 15, 2018 But it really does beg the question - how much do you think this bag of cash is going to fall [in market price] if Warren dies tomorrow? I think you guys are overconfident. BRK has fallen 50% top to bottom 2 or 3 times in its history. It can happen again. And if Warren was dead, there's no guarantee it would recover from 50% drop. ::) 0.6x (+/-) book would be AWESOME! I'd probably mortgage my home 4 that. You clearly forget that when stocks owned by BRK fall, book also falls. I did indeed :-[
DooDiligence Posted June 15, 2018 Posted June 15, 2018 And if it trades there chances of getting a second mortgage are probably zero. Actually, it'd be a 1st mortgage. But yeah, I get it that rates would probably be higher & who'd loan to a student with no income, especially when I told them what I was doing with the $$$.
boilermaker75 Posted June 15, 2018 Posted June 15, 2018 But it really does beg the question - how much do you think this bag of cash is going to fall [in market price] if Warren dies tomorrow? I think you guys are overconfident. BRK has fallen 50% top to bottom 2 or 3 times in its history. It can happen again. And if Warren was dead, there's no guarantee it would recover from 50% drop. ::) I'd be more concerned if Ajit died.
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