value_hunter Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 added KW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Williams406 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 12 minutes ago, LC said: Could you share the current status summary? I stopped following about a year ago, I wasn't super impressed with management. From my post on the PANR thread back in December: "Anyone still following this? Quite a lot has transpired since year end 2022. David Hobbs (Telemachus) joined the BOD in March and is now Executive Chairman. He is on every webcast and Pantheon needed his communication skills. His active role in the business and ownership stake lend a lot of credibility in my mind. Just last week the company revealed it added 66,000 acres to the 193,000 it previously held. The acreage additions are essentially extensions to both Kodiak and Ahpun which Pantheon had proprietary seismic data on that management estimates adds 500 million net recoverable barrels to Kodiak and 300 million barrels to Ahpun. $2 million up-front lease cost. Netherland Sewell issued an independent expert report recently on Kodiak (one billion barrels of recoverable oil) and one should be issued 1H 2024 on Ahpun. The Kodiak IER will be revised to incorporate the new acreage--the one billion barrel estimate pre-dated the recent acquisition. Pantheon's financing strategy entails using vendor financing and reserve-based lending a few wells in to developing Ahpun with a goal of minimizing equity dilution. If Pantheon succeeds in lining up development capital this way, hard to see this staying at $270 million market cap. My initial purchases got hit hard by the sell off late last year (premature accumulation) but I added very aggressively in the $0.15-$0.20 range (PTHRF, US $) and made a material add at 0.25 post lease announcement last week. I like the set up here." I think a lot of prospective shareholders dropped off this one around the same time and I understand that--speculative play, short attack, confusing communication around the production test results...Hobbs is now the front-facing company rep. A week ago Hobbs did an interview with Chuck Yates that was excellent. Search youtube for "David Hobbs Chuck Yates". Worth an hour if you have some interest. Key catalyst would be the announcement of a financing package for Ahpun that is attractive with minimal equity dilution, which could come at any time. If we don't get that in the first quarter, the risk that potential vendors see the data differently than the Pantheon team rises, which would be a big negative. I'll be very surprised if we don't see at least 2 billion barrels of estimated recoverable resource in official IER's by the end of the 1H 2024 as a base case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 9 minutes ago, value_hunter said: added KW The leverage on $KW is bonkers. I owned some bonds a while ago and even those seem hairy. They are yielding ~9.3% now (4.75% 2030) down from ~11%. Not for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dymanojbabu Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 BOC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
value_hunter Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 52 minutes ago, Spekulatius said: The leverage on $KW is bonkers. I owned some bonds a while ago and even those seem hairy. They are yielding ~9.3% now (4.75% 2030) down from ~11%. Not for me. Debts are 100% fixed or hedged. Plus Fairfax won't let it go under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dipod Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 JBLU in the 4.6s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 hour ago, value_hunter said: Debts are 100% fixed or hedged. Plus Fairfax won't let it go under. Sounds like you have done your research. Hedges are limited in duration so how well KW does depend on the interest rate trajectory. If Fairfax bails them out, they are going to charge and arm and a leg and the equity will suffer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave86ch Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 9988 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
throw123 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 oxy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Added a bit more $HUM today on today’s earnings warning. I am not pleased but it is what it is. Thats why I like to take smaller positions first, because it gives some room to buy more on weakness. FWIW, this one is in the penalty box until there is further clarity on cost trends this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saluki Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 I thought I was done with buying OXY, but at $55, I had to pick up a few shares. I'm tempted to overallocate and just sell some higher basis shares in a month for the tax loss harvesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
E. Nashton Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Bought some more OXY and re-started a position in CNQ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longlake95 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 CVE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seoshin Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Bought a starter in Nelnet $NNI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lance Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 ADM Thanks Lance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dipod Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 BNS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
50centdollars Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 AGM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cash_incinerator Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Byddy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tede02 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Added to TTNDY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seoshin Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Bought a starter in GFL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnathan Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 ADM - I think the market cap reaction is too much for what is likely a small misstatement...stock will be under pressure until investigation is done. WABC - Bank with potentially the best deposit base in the country. 2x tbv is cheap for this -> typically trades at 3x+ tbv given how consistent this bank is. Mostly a levered bond shop and not a traditional lender so doesnt have as much risk as other banks (only duration risk, which has hurt, but doesnt matter as much for them given the low cost deposits) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lnofeisone Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 NNI, NEP. Built full position in both over the last two weeks. The fundamentals on both are either underappreciated (NNI) or assigned too much risk (NEP). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luca Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 (edited) Putting my Fairfax Dividend to work: Put two buy orders in for CEIX @NYSE and JOE @NYSE Edited January 26 by Luca Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 hour ago, Luca said: Putting my Fairfax Dividend to work: Put two buy orders in for CEIX @NYSE and JOE @NYSE Nice! I hadn't noticed it hit this morning. I love Fairfax dividend day. Something about getting it all at once that makes it seem like a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luca Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 14 minutes ago, gfp said: Nice! I hadn't noticed it hit this morning. I love Fairfax dividend day. Something about getting it all at once that makes it seem like a lot. Yeah exactly, I was waiting for it yesterday, on my second broker it already arrived but at IB it was there when I woke up this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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