KPO Posted March 12 Posted March 12 10 minutes ago, Eldad said: Ok sounds like you have dug in. But panhandle of OK is like waste land, cattle country but 800-1200 is fair. Then add the timber value. But the AR, West TX, MS, LA, and probably most of the AL has almost no development value whatsoever now or in 50 years. Your KS land will probably be part of Kansas City in 50 years and there are a lot more wealthy people looking for a hobby farm etc I am guessing. I agree with this, particularly the panhandle comment. Surface of the moon stuff, but given that it goes for this range and is generally not cash generative tells me there’s demand for a wide range of land types. >98% of their land is just cash flowing timberland, but there seems to be no value put on the 40K developable acres, the plywood and other wood products manufacturing, or the ancillary uses such as solar, which could be spun out or sold for over $1B by my estimates. We’ll see. Seems like limited downside here from my perspective, but I’m still building a position so am fine with short term declines.
jfan Posted March 12 Posted March 12 On 3/10/2026 at 1:52 PM, frommi said: 13% in CSU, 5% in LMN and 2% in TOI. TOI is lowest because i don't like the complexity of all the stuff and that they are already levered 2x. (and i was not able to buy more at a 5% fcf yield) CSU is the biggest because it is also the safest in my mind with its 800 sub-businesses. 5% LMN because thats my limit of how big i go for not-so-diversified businesses, but i think it has the biggest runway because of size and how they do their aquisitions and they have no debt right now. Thanks. I only own CSU and TOI due to research time constraints and capital. Together they are ~ 11% of my self-managed portion of my portfolio (4% in CSU and 7% in TOI). I weighted it more to TOI because of its smaller size relative to CSU, and been pretty consistent since 2019 on their EBITDA/Average Adjusted Invested Capital of ~ 20-25%. I appreciate your thoughts on Lumine. Carve-outs seem much more complex, and due to their size, may limit PE competitors vs TOI's traditional acquisition strategy. Not sure I can wrap my head around the deal complexity, and integration risk.
Eldad Posted March 12 Posted March 12 5 minutes ago, KPO said: I agree with this, particularly the panhandle comment. Surface of the moon stuff, but given that it goes for this range and is generally not cash generative tells me there’s demand for a wide range of land types. >98% of their land is just cash flowing timberland, but there seems to be no value put on the 40K developable acres, the plywood and other wood products manufacturing, or the ancillary uses such as solar, which could be spun out or sold for over $1B by my estimates. We’ll see. Seems like limited downside here from my perspective, but I’m still building a position so am fine with short term declines. Yep tons of solar activity going on in Southern timber land currently for insane prices and apparently has continued even after OBBB. Richland Parish, LA META data center etc. etc. You never know what the future will bring. I’m going to take a closer look, thanks.
Jaygo Posted March 12 Posted March 12 13 hours ago, Eldad said: 13 hours ago, KPO said: I agree with this, particularly the panhandle comment. Surface of the moon stuff, but given that it goes for this range and is generally not cash generative tells me there’s demand for a wide range of land types. >98% of their land is just cash flowing timberland, but there seems to be no value put on the 40K developable acres, the plywood and other wood products manufacturing, or the ancillary uses such as solar, which could be spun out or sold for over $1B by my estimates. We’ll see. Seems like limited downside here from my perspective, but I’m still building a position so am fine with short term declines. Expand Yep tons of solar activity going on in Southern timber land currently for insane prices and apparently has continued even after OBBB. Richland Parish, LA META data center etc. etc. You never know what the future will bring. I’m going to take a closer look, thanks. A thread on land investment would be interesting. These numbers seem incredibly cheap vs what I see in my home market. And in Canada you generally only own the surface rights. It makes me think USA land is very cheap
rogermunibond Posted March 12 Posted March 12 @Eldad can you elaborate more on this timber land conversion to solar power facilities? examples, companies, where? TIA!
Eldad Posted March 12 Posted March 12 29 minutes ago, rogermunibond said: @Eldad can you elaborate more on this timber land conversion to solar power facilities? examples, companies, where? TIA! My family has some land in Union county AR that has HV power lines going through it. We were approached a couple of years ago and signed a solar deal. They pay around $50 an acre a year for the option while they get all of the permitting and do whatever other planning they do. Once construction starts they pay $500 an acre per year. After it is in service it is $900 an acre with a 4% increase every year for 20 years. We thought OBBB was going to kill it but it has not and the agent keeps telling us it is 100% still happening. We have already started receiving the option payments. This is happening all over the state and probably the Southern US. This is all on land that we probably have a basis of less than $1,000 an acre.
rogermunibond Posted March 12 Posted March 12 1 minute ago, Eldad said: My family has some land in Union county AR that has HV power lines going through it. We were approached a couple of years ago and signed a solar deal. They pay around $50 an acre a year for the option while they get all of the permitting and do whatever other planning they do. Once construction starts they pay $500 an acre per year. After it is in service it is $900 an acre with a 4% increase every year for 20 years. We thought OBBB was going to kill it but it has not and the agent keeps telling us it is 100% still happening. We have already started receiving the option payments. This is happening all over the state and probably the Southern US. This is all on land that we probably have a basis of less than $1,000 an acre. excellent nice deal for your family. have the developers talked at all about adding battery storage? yeah despite the federal credits going away the costs keep dropping, making solar+battery a great investment where the interconnect to the grid can be done quickly. would your family have planted pine on this land otherwise and is that what you had used it for previously?
Eldad Posted March 12 Posted March 12 1 minute ago, rogermunibond said: excellent nice deal for your family. have the developers talked at all about adding battery storage? yeah despite the federal credits going away the costs keep dropping, making solar+battery a great investment where the interconnect to the grid can be done quickly. would your family have planted pine on this land otherwise and is that what you had used it for previously? Yes Pine timber previously and would have been going forward. I will ask my dad on the battery. This thing has been his job in retirement ha.
NnnnotSoSmart Posted March 12 Posted March 12 (edited) New starter position in IVSBF. Added to FRFHF. Edited March 12 by NnnnotSoSmart
NnnnotSoSmart Posted March 12 Posted March 12 (edited) 5 hours ago, rogermunibond said: @Eldad can you elaborate more on this timber land conversion to solar power facilities? examples, companies, where? TIA! Not Eldad, but Weyerhaeuser (WY) is one example. https://investor.weyerhaeuser.com/events-and-presentations?item=195 https://www.apexcleanenergy.com/news/apex-clean-energy-to-pursue-1-gw-of-solar-potential-on-weyerhaeuser-land/' Edited March 12 by NnnnotSoSmart
Valuebo Posted March 12 Posted March 12 Held my nose and bought more GTLB calls and also some BLDR calls aside from common I already held. At least my CPNG calls are turning around slowly and I sold some TEAM leaps a few trading days ago for a quick profit. Especially GTLB I'm scratching my head, but I guess it could always trade below 2 times revenue ex cash?
Castanza Posted March 12 Posted March 12 26 minutes ago, Eldad said: Getting exciting out there Tiny adds to BRO, MCO, POOL How are you thinking about POOL? Seems very heavily dependent upon a solid economy no? Rates coupled with costs don't look favorable.
Eldad Posted March 12 Posted March 12 12 minutes ago, Castanza said: How are you thinking about POOL? Seems very heavily dependent upon a solid economy no? Rates coupled with costs don't look favorable. It’s 60%+ recurring - maintenance etc. If you stop taking care of your pool you have a massive problem very quickly. Every year so many new pools get added to the population so the 60% piece is always growing. Even with the current dip, revenue is still 60-70% higher today than pre Covid. I’m also finally buying NVR. Both POOL and NVR could completely suck for 1-3 years, but in my mind are almost guaranteed to preform very well 10 years out. We will see. I’m sure I will be buying them much lower as well, but you never know.
tnathan Posted March 13 Posted March 13 6 hours ago, Eldad said: It’s 60%+ recurring - maintenance etc. If you stop taking care of your pool you have a massive problem very quickly. Every year so many new pools get added to the population so the 60% piece is always growing. Even with the current dip, revenue is still 60-70% higher today than pre Covid. I’m also finally buying NVR. Both POOL and NVR could completely suck for 1-3 years, but in my mind are almost guaranteed to preform very well 10 years out. We will see. I’m sure I will be buying them much lower as well, but you never know. I agree with this sentiment generally but waiting on housing has been a tough trade.
Castanza Posted March 13 Posted March 13 15 hours ago, Eldad said: It’s 60%+ recurring - maintenance etc. If you stop taking care of your pool you have a massive problem very quickly. Every year so many new pools get added to the population so the 60% piece is always growing. Even with the current dip, revenue is still 60-70% higher today than pre Covid. I’m also finally buying NVR. Both POOL and NVR could completely suck for 1-3 years, but in my mind are almost guaranteed to preform very well 10 years out. We will see. I’m sure I will be buying them much lower as well, but you never know. 9 hours ago, tnathan said: I agree with this sentiment generally but waiting on housing has been a tough trade. Yeah the issue is timing with this one…recurring revenue is great but it’s tough to see near term significant new pool builds. Completely anecdotal but where I live in PA, I’ve had two friends with pools permanently close them in due to repair costs. I’ve also seen some quotes for new installs and they aren’t for the faint of heart. Anecdotes are often not a good basis for investment though…. @Gregmal initially put this on the map for me a few years back and @gfp highlighting the insider buys the past two weeks. Going to check out some earnings calls.
Gregmal Posted March 13 Posted March 13 (edited) 1 hour ago, Castanza said: Yeah the issue is timing with this one…recurring revenue is great but it’s tough to see near term significant new pool builds. Completely anecdotal but where I live in PA, I’ve had two friends with pools permanently close them in due to repair costs. I’ve also seen some quotes for new installs and they aren’t for the faint of heart. Anecdotes are often not a good basis for investment though…. @Gregmal initially put this on the map for me a few years back and @gfp highlighting the insider buys the past two weeks. Going to check out some earnings calls. Whats odd is this phenomena has occurred throughout a bunch of industries. Industries that it appears would benefit from becoming less cyclical, yet due to greed from folks on the ground, cant. It doesn't really cost much more to build a pool than it did pre-covid. Renting machinery for a few days/low level hardscape material and labor. But these guys all of a sudden decided that cuz everyone else was getting $120k for a starter pool, that thats what the prices were gonna be even though that same pool might still only cost $20k to build. I dont doubt theres people whom want pools, but for what it costs nowadays it's just a joke. Edited March 13 by Gregmal
Castanza Posted March 13 Posted March 13 32 minutes ago, Gregmal said: Whats odd is this phenomena has occurred throughout a bunch of industries. Industries that it appears would benefit from becoming less cyclical, yet due to greed from folks on the ground, cant. It doesn't really cost much more to build a pool than it did pre-covid. Renting machinery for a few days/low level hardscape material and labor. But these guys all of a sudden decided that cuz everyone else was getting $120k for a starter pool, that thats what the prices were gonna be even though that same pool might still only cost $20k to build. I dont doubt theres people whom want pools, but for what it costs nowadays it's just a joke. Anything involving heavy equipment seems to have gone through the roof post covid. At some point you think the scales will tip...There is only so many people who want to put 30-50% of their home value into a new pool.
Eldad Posted March 13 Posted March 13 44 minutes ago, Castanza said: CPRT I bought more CPRT as well. As far as POOL, I get it, when I first started looking at it my bias was thinking about it like a boat or RV company. But the installed base of pools in the US only goes up. It even went up in 2008-2010. It would be nice if someone at BRK could call them and give them the Tim Cook buyback talk. The share count is always going down but they should ramp it up now for sure.
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