Jump to content

Recommended Posts

Posted
5 hours ago, Gregmal said:

I absolutely hate gold but I like money and the setup Q4 into 2022 was a good one. Would be surprised if it doesn’t continue.

I do as well but I bought a bit of GOLD and a Gold ETF in Q3 2021. Its more or less a cash substitute for me at present. In my country the gains on some GOLD ETFs are tax free after a holding period of 12 months that why I added the ETF to GOLD

Posted
On 1/7/2022 at 9:30 AM, Longnose said:

Bought MOMO 10$ calls for April yesterday. 

MOMO has announced a special dividend for the past several Februarys and usually has a nice run up into mid Feb. Short term speculative play. 

 

Closed these and bought more 11$ and 12$ strikes - Small position. 

Posted (edited)
44 minutes ago, kab60 said:

Me too!

SWMAY has not benefited from the factor driven rush into tobacco stocks. I also have been adding more shares.

Edited by Spekulatius
Posted
42 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

SWMAY has not benefited from the factor driven rush into tobacco stocks. I also have been adding more shares.

It's a growth stock. Long duration cashflows. Multiple compression! Which is awesome, as they - unlike the knobheads at Big Tobacco - buyback shares meaningfully. But yeah, a bit surprised with the price action considering BATS seems to have thrown in the towel somewhat in the US with regards to nicotine pouches, and Swedish Match absolutely crushed it.

Posted

Well, I like the odds here, but maybe I am smoking something. I bought more on the Swedish exchange today, since it's down ~4%. Another interesting thing I have found is that the SEK seems to be correlated with the Russian Ruble RUB somewhat:

image.thumb.png.b36698a99f02956fabf1c7571f0a28ee.png

 

Makes sense, since they are all commies, right?

Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Well, I like the odds here, but maybe I am smoking something. I bought more on the Swedish exchange today, since it's down ~4%. Another interesting thing I have found is that the SEK seems to be correlated with the Russian Ruble RUB somewhat:

image.thumb.png.b36698a99f02956fabf1c7571f0a28ee.png

 

Makes sense, since they are all commies, right?

Nah, I agree. It's one of my best GARP ideas. If the development in the states gets to resemble Northern Europe, it's gonne be a huge winner.

 

My fear is Altria and BATS somehow has enough FDA clout to sabotage Zyn!, though I have no idea how they'd do that.

Edited by kab60
Posted
1 hour ago, kab60 said:

Nah, I agree. It's one of my best GARP ideas. If the development in the states gets to resemble Northern Europe, it's gonne be a huge winner.

 

My fear is Altria and BATS somehow has enough FDA clout to sabotage Zyn!, though I have no idea how they'd do that.

https://tobacco.ucsf.edu/swedish-match-misrepresents-fda-authorization-its-snus-effort-get-exemption-california-flavor-ban
 

I think you have more to worry about from politicians, anti tobacco groups

and maybe the fda?

Posted
3 minutes ago, Ulti said:

https://tobacco.ucsf.edu/swedish-match-misrepresents-fda-authorization-its-snus-effort-get-exemption-california-flavor-ban
 

I think you have more to worry about from politicians, anti tobacco groups

and maybe the fda?

Maybe. I wrote Swedish Match regarding the PMTA process, as I'm not 100% on the risks. Will see what they say. They don't really mention it in their annual report risk section, so I might be seeing ghosts.


As for politicians, it's always a risk in this space. But if common sense prevails, they won't oppose nicotine pouches. The health benefits compared to tobacco are immense - you can't really compare the two types of products. While nicotine isn't healthy, it doesn't kill you unlike all the small particles and tar you inhale into your lungs when smoking.

 

This might be of interest:

 

Posted (edited)

Biggest risk for SWMA / ZYN are punitive taxes on nicotine pouches. It's always a possibility, but i don't see why the FDA would do so, except bribery through lobbying of course.

 

Overall, my thesis is that nicotine as  a drug is here to stay and cigarettes will get replaced with healthier alternatives, its just a matter of how quickly.

Edited by Spekulatius
Posted
14 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Biggest risk for SWMA / ZYN are punitive taxes on nicotine pouches. It's always a possibility, but i don't see why the FDA would do so, except bribery through lobbying of course.

 

Overall, my thesis is that nicotine as  a drug is here to stay and cigarettes will get replaced with healthier alternatives, its just a matter of how quickly.

Yeah, I think it's inevitable that nicotine pouches will eventually be taxed meaningfully. Not due to health concerns, but simply because continued declines in cigarette consumption will leave an increasing whole in public budgets. Hopefully, politicians are sensible enough and realize that nicotine pouches might be one of the greatest things to happen for public health. But one of the attractions for me in investing in MO (apart from being perhaps the greatest business ever) is that they seem to have a tremendous amount of regulatory clout. It's pretty sad for society and public health, but it's great for shareholders.

 

Despite increasing taxes, I think SWMA will do well. I've been smoking a cig once in a while when going out since I started 'drinking' and have almost completely switched to nicotine pouches. It's just a better product, not least as you aren't banned to standing outside, AND the health benefits are tremendous. I hope we do well, Spek!

 

 

Posted
2 hours ago, kab60 said:

Yeah, I think it's inevitable that nicotine pouches will eventually be taxed meaningfully. Not due to health concerns, but simply because continued declines in cigarette consumption will leave an increasing whole in public budgets. Hopefully, politicians are sensible enough and realize that nicotine pouches might be one of the greatest things to happen for public health. But one of the attractions for me in investing in MO (apart from being perhaps the greatest business ever) is that they seem to have a tremendous amount of regulatory clout. It's pretty sad for society and public health, but it's great for shareholders.

 

Despite increasing taxes, I think SWMA will do well. I've been smoking a cig once in a while when going out since I started 'drinking' and have almost completely switched to nicotine pouches. It's just a better product, not least as you aren't banned to standing outside, AND the health benefits are tremendous. I hope we do well, Spek!

 

 

I think that it will be difficult to do in practice. Cigarettes were only heavily taxed after decades of research on health problems. With nicotine pouches it will take another decade at least to have proper health statistics.

Posted
16 minutes ago, MattR said:

I think that it will be difficult to do in practice. Cigarettes were only heavily taxed after decades of research on health problems. With nicotine pouches it will take another decade at least to have proper health statistics.

I don't think politicans need proper health statistics to tax something. I am bullish on SWMAY but I don't feel bullish about common sense in politics and taxation.

Posted
17 minutes ago, MattR said:

I think that it will be difficult to do in practice. Cigarettes were only heavily taxed after decades of research on health problems. With nicotine pouches it will take another decade at least to have proper health statistics.

To tax it? Not sure, politicians seem to do that easily. As for Health Studies, you have some pretty formidable health data in Sweden, and as I understand it (I was told by an Economist friend of mine at Novo Nordisk, so take it with a grain of salts) there are pretty much no negative health consequences from Snus/Nicotine Pouches when you look at cohorts of users through decades. We can agree that nicotine isn't beneficial, and being addicted is generally bad, but for a lot of people nicotine pouches substitutes cigarettes which are just terrible, obviously, for your health.

Posted (edited)

Deploying some of the proceeds from APTS. Added some SWMAY, TCEHY, and BABA.

 

Edit: Wow, also some OZ. Someone must be getting liquidated on that stock today. It's basically just a pile of cash right now with most shares sold at 100, and it's down 15% today and trading around 80.

Edited by aws

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...