cubsfan Posted June 6, 2021 Posted June 6, 2021 ^ I wouldn't argue with that at all. NOW has a massive moat since it gets so tied into IT operations and the automation/customization benefits are huge. But Splunk definitely has a moat. Trying to make sense of billions of security and operational events into something that makes sense is a massive problem for IT departments. These types of tools have been around forever, but Splunk's ability to tie many of these collector tools together and generate meaningful information makes it the leader. Once you do that, you find more to do, and like NOW - it's not going to get ripped out. Most Splunk customers seem to double/triple their initial usage within a year or so. So I think a few years from now - like NOW and Palo Alto - Splunk will have enough critical mass with it's sales force and total offering (acquisitions) that they will be the undisputed leader. We will see. I might be too early, as that seems to be my curse. Splunk is undergoing a switch in their pricing model from data based pricing to usage based, as well as cloud enablement. Most of the users hated the data pricing, as you loaded up your data and paid for that regardless of processing. Now you can load all you want - and pay for what you process. This should make it much easier for companies to see what SPLK can do for them - and just pay for that. You'll see Splunk usage skyrocket in my opinion. Add the cloud enablement in, and that will make it easier for many companies to get started with Splunk. So, yeah, it's expensive - but this pricing model change slows revenue growth down in the short term (1-2yrs?) and hence the hit to the stock.
Gregmal Posted June 9, 2021 Posted June 9, 2021 On 6/3/2021 at 3:56 PM, Gregmal said: $20 CLF calls a few months out. Took 150% of basis off the table. Letting the rest ride. Go make it a MEME now Reddit.
Gregmal Posted June 10, 2021 Posted June 10, 2021 19 hours ago, Gregmal said: Took 150% of basis off the table. Letting the rest ride. Go make it a MEME now Reddit. After looking at the chain, I sold some more of these and then shorted some slightly OTM puts expiring 6/18. Real fat premiums on those.
Castanza Posted June 10, 2021 Posted June 10, 2021 47 minutes ago, sethatk said: KTYCF and BSM +1 BSM
K2SO Posted June 11, 2021 Posted June 11, 2021 Adding to a small position in Largo Resources (LGO.TO). Historically a vanadium miner, now turning into a stealth battery/green energy play.
Gregmal Posted June 11, 2021 Posted June 11, 2021 On 5/14/2021 at 11:05 AM, Gregmal said: Rebought some MX. ~21.50 Took some off at $26 on new buyout offer. Stock still cheap though.
Gregmal Posted June 14, 2021 Posted June 14, 2021 On 5/20/2021 at 3:25 PM, Gregmal said: Nearly tripled my position in ALCO over the past few days. What do you do when you have maybe 10-15% potential drawdown risk and 10-100% highly probable, eventual upside? Especially with a hard asset play where drawdowns will just be temporary and simply add to the upside? Swing big. Worst scenario IMO is it continues to be dead money and pays you 72c a share(which they're about to start ramping). Cash is trash. https://seekingalpha.com/news/3706008-alico-announces-178-increase-in-dividend-additional-ranch-land-sales-and-update-on-esg-initiative Well, there's most people's annual returns...inside a month, on a highly asymmetric investment. Not selling yet, still favorable outlook here and shares are cheap.
cubsfan Posted June 14, 2021 Posted June 14, 2021 Started Energy Transfer (ET) $11.27 - dividend 5.4%, forward PE 5. Like Gregmal says, everyone hates energy!
gfp Posted June 14, 2021 Posted June 14, 2021 42 minutes ago, Gregmal said: https://seekingalpha.com/news/3706008-alico-announces-178-increase-in-dividend-additional-ranch-land-sales-and-update-on-esg-initiative Well, there's most people's annual returns...inside a month, on a highly asymmetric investment. Not selling yet, still favorable outlook here and shares are cheap. Yeah that market reaction is pretty funny considering they had basically already pre-announced everything they said today. Maybe added some specifics but this “news” was out there
thowed Posted June 14, 2021 Posted June 14, 2021 Congrats, Greg, this was on my list of RE to check, courtesy of your good self - I've got to speed up!
cubsfan Posted June 14, 2021 Posted June 14, 2021 ^ Yup! My thanks on ALCO, it's been tough to accumulate, but worthwhile!
Gregmal Posted June 14, 2021 Posted June 14, 2021 4 hours ago, gfp said: Yeah that market reaction is pretty funny considering they had basically already pre-announced everything they said today. Maybe added some specifics but this “news” was out there Yea I think theres two reasons for that. 1) the company has been left for dead and 2) often with land sales, putting them under contract and closing them are not necessarily the same thing. You definitely dont get 100% credit in the public markets until the checks are cashed. Either way, glad to see people making money. If you think a 5% dividend yield, and ~70% of NAV is fairish value for a company in a stable/boring business, thats expected to grow earnings, continue paying down debt, and increasing dividends while basking in the Sun Belt growth story....well you've still got about 20% upside til that happens. The volume of late has been good, they've been doing IR work. Remy has stopped selling. And they've shown theyre willing to sell the land. All good stuff.
rayfinkle Posted June 15, 2021 Posted June 15, 2021 On 5/20/2021 at 12:25 PM, Gregmal said: Nearly tripled my position in ALCO over the past few days. What do you do when you have maybe 10-15% potential drawdown risk and 10-100% highly probable, eventual upside? Especially with a hard asset play where drawdowns will just be temporary and simply add to the upside? Swing big. Worst scenario IMO is it continues to be dead money and pays you 72c a share(which they're about to start ramping). Cash is trash. Hey Greg- any chance you can point to a write up ? I checked out the May 2020 VIC already. Thanks!
Gregmal Posted June 15, 2021 Posted June 15, 2021 11 hours ago, rayfinkle said: Hey Greg- any chance you can point to a write up ? I checked out the May 2020 VIC already. Thanks! Hi Ray, Thanks for mentioning the VIC writeup, I cant believe I hadn't seen it before but was a good read. I dont really think there's a specific writeup I can point to. I've followed the company for years and one of the beauties of a company like this is that its pretty static. Once you familiarize yourself with the assets there's not a whole lot of upkeep you need to do on your thesis outside of fairly simple stuff like listening/reading transcripts. What lead me to conclude this is now a good IRR type investment this winter and especially this spring was several things. 1) Its failed to participate in any sort of appreciation seen by most assets/companies despite the fact that there hasn't been any value destruction here. 2) Management now has a multi year track record of solid decision making and is now starting to do IR work. 3) FL and Sun Belt RE, especially land, has gotten so hot its inevitable that it starts bleeding into this valuation. Because of 2) you can get confident that it will be capitalized on. 4) All else fails you have such a margin of safety(even still at $34 IMO) that its unlikely you lose anything but opportunity cost..which in a fickle market isnt too much of a concern to me.
rkbabang Posted June 15, 2021 Posted June 15, 2021 A starting position in SOXQ, an ETF which tracks the PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index. I'm really bullish on the semiconductor industry for at least the next 18-24 months and think the index will do well. I already own 2 of the components NVDA and the company I work for: ADI. I like most of the companies on the index (except for Intel, which I'm not so sure of) and was having trouble picking just 1 or two more to invest in. So the ETF it is.
Castanza Posted June 16, 2021 Posted June 16, 2021 (edited) BSM, VNOM, FLMN Made it a basket Edited June 16, 2021 by Castanza
changegonnacome Posted June 16, 2021 Posted June 16, 2021 4 hours ago, K2SO said: MSTR Jan 23 puts. Interesting - writer or buyer? and at what strike. Its quite amazing what he’s doing there - effectively has turned his company into a defacto BTC etf/proxy
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