spartansaver Posted April 3, 2020 Posted April 3, 2020 DHT EURN Can anyone spell C-O-N-T-A-N-G-O? Asymmetric play on crude storage squeeze. Oil market ain't buying the lies Trumpy is selling them. Dalal--we are seeing the world in a very similar way these days. Ships going to earn their market cap in a year. You guys are 2 weeks late on the tanker trade. Tanker storage does not make much sense at anywhere near today's day rates. You really need oil to reverse everything it has done in the last 24 hours Skate where the puck is going. Nothing changed by Trump's tweets except a spike to spot. I don't see how there won't be a massive oversupply of crude for the foreseeable future. Day rates move around, but the overall thesis is pretty good if you believe there will be a significant oversupply. Not a major fan of tankers FWIW, but think the trade makes sense. I'm having trouble with this one as the thesis seems very obvious. If everyone knows that Wayne is going for a backdoor tip-in, and they just let him skate there, then is he really in that great of a scoring position?
matts Posted April 3, 2020 Posted April 3, 2020 DHT EURN Can anyone spell C-O-N-T-A-N-G-O? Asymmetric play on crude storage squeeze. Oil market ain't buying the lies Trumpy is selling them. Dalal--we are seeing the world in a very similar way these days. Ships going to earn their market cap in a year. You guys are 2 weeks late on the tanker trade. Tanker storage does not make much sense at anywhere near today's day rates. You really need oil to reverse everything it has done in the last 24 hours Skate where the puck is going. Nothing changed by Trump's tweets except a spike to spot. I don't see how there won't be a massive oversupply of crude for the foreseeable future. Day rates move around, but the overall thesis is pretty good if you believe there will be a significant oversupply. Not a major fan of tankers FWIW, but think the trade makes sense. I'm having trouble with this one as the thesis seems very obvious. If everyone knows that Wayne is going for a backdoor tip-in, and they just let him skate there, then is he really in that great of a scoring position? I agree. The tanker storage trade is no secret. It's all over Bloomberg TV, FT, etc. I was in the trade and when I saw all the media attention I got nervous and had my finger on the trigger. Sold the second trump tweeted.
Williams406 Posted April 3, 2020 Posted April 3, 2020 +Blue collar mobile home parks in the Midwest. If they are bought right and operated well, they are coupon clippers. Is your interest in Midwest mobile home parks a function of that region being particularly attractive vs. other regions, for some reason. Or is it your stomping grounds? If you have some history with this asset class, what have you seen in terms of cap rate compression?
alwaysdrawing Posted April 3, 2020 Posted April 3, 2020 DHT EURN Can anyone spell C-O-N-T-A-N-G-O? Asymmetric play on crude storage squeeze. Oil market ain't buying the lies Trumpy is selling them. Dalal--we are seeing the world in a very similar way these days. Ships going to earn their market cap in a year. You guys are 2 weeks late on the tanker trade. Tanker storage does not make much sense at anywhere near today's day rates. You really need oil to reverse everything it has done in the last 24 hours Skate where the puck is going. Nothing changed by Trump's tweets except a spike to spot. I don't see how there won't be a massive oversupply of crude for the foreseeable future. Day rates move around, but the overall thesis is pretty good if you believe there will be a significant oversupply. Not a major fan of tankers FWIW, but think the trade makes sense. I'm having trouble with this one as the thesis seems very obvious. If everyone knows that Wayne is going for a backdoor tip-in, and they just let him skate there, then is he really in that great of a scoring position? I agree. The tanker storage trade is no secret. It's all over Bloomberg TV, FT, etc. I was in the trade and when I saw all the media attention I got nervous and had my finger on the trigger. Sold the second trump tweeted. I don't see any way that cuts get anywhere close to the 20 million barrel/day oversupply. Would add on an OPEC cut announcement next week, as I just don't see how the necessary cuts are at all credible. Might not work out, but if the oversupply persists, tanker companies will have a P/E of 1 during supercontango. I'm not quick on the trigger based on spot rate changes. There is a structural problem that I don't see any way to address.
TrashIsCash Posted April 3, 2020 Posted April 3, 2020 re: Midwestern Mobile Homes parks: 1) Most towns where I buy are economically stable. They were not hit too hard by GFC. 2) At the time, not a ton of competition from PE firms, wealthy private individuals, etc. It is now more competitive, but I was able to find a good opportunity. 3) Prior to CV-19, cap rates were 5.5% for institutional-quality, larger assets to 7% for lower quality stuff.
LC Posted April 3, 2020 Posted April 3, 2020 GOOG VZ T CTL RTX PCYO BAC The market did come down the last few days, were you trading out prior to that? Essentially asking whether you are slowly accumulating or simply trading around the market volatility? For me I bought some WFC, T the last few days. Was planning on buying some more WFC today but was caught up and didn't have time. Hopefully further opportunity presents itself!
Castanza Posted April 3, 2020 Posted April 3, 2020 GOOG VZ T CTL RTX PCYO BAC The market did come down the last few days, were you trading out prior to that? Essentially asking whether you are slowly accumulating or simply trading around the market volatility? For me I bought some WFC, T the last few days. Was planning on buying some more WFC today but was caught up and didn't have time. Hopefully further opportunity presents itself! I was trading in and out of GOOG and a few others but started to accumulate in the above positions today. Still have quite a bit of cash and continued cash flow that I’ll deploy if we keep going lower. Timing is too hard. Less stressful to just dca on good companies and think 20 years down the line.
LC Posted April 3, 2020 Posted April 3, 2020 Timing is too hard. Less stressful to just dca on good companies and think 20 years down the line. Yea those are my thoughts too. Cheers ;D
Spekulatius Posted April 4, 2020 Posted April 4, 2020 GOOG VZ T CTL RTX PCYO BAC Bought GOOG with an L and a bit of RTX. GOOGL was a partial rebuy, as I sold most of my position a few days ago.
bskptkl Posted April 7, 2020 Posted April 7, 2020 I bought RDI today. It finished on its lows ($3ish) - looking really weak. See attached Gabelli research piece. I've managed to avoid this classic value trap for years until very recently, but I can't resist any longer! One thought I had - if it declares ch 11, it would be good for equity holders in that there would be a mandated sales process. The management is absolutely horrible and are clinging to power by way of the RDIB super voting shares, which are holding up around $16ish. There is also a civil court case that may dislodge management. I wonder how low it will go... RDI_20200326_Gabelli_research.pdf
alwaysdrawing Posted April 8, 2020 Posted April 8, 2020 I'm buying puts on BURL. Retailer with 100% of stores closed indefinitely, with no sales on website, because they closed it last year (!), and trading for over 20x trailing profits. If they are closed for months, they will have stale inventory, a cash crunch, and are definitely not going to earn anything like last year's profits, and will almost certainly make significant losses. The valuation, which has only receded to levels seen last year in 2019, is still pricing in both profitability and growth, neither of which is likely. I highly doubt they will be able to survive if coronavirus keeps them shut down for long, and even if they re-open, it seems unlikely they will be returning to the same level of sales, to say nothing of profitability. My guess is shares trade down 75%+ over the next year, if they survive at all.
KJP Posted April 8, 2020 Posted April 8, 2020 I'm buying puts on BURL. Retailer with 100% of stores closed indefinitely, with no sales on website, because they closed it last year (!), and trading for over 20x trailing profits. If they are closed for months, they will have stale inventory, This is an interesting problem for clothing retailers, or anyone else that sells seasonal goods. How far in advance does the typical clothing retailer acquire inventory, e.g., by mid-March I assume most winter clothing is already gone. Is the mid-March inventory primarily spring or summer clothes? Either way, it seems like there is going to be alot of out-of-season clothing around. Would off-price discounters benefit from that? Also, someone's going to have to eat most of that. Will brands take some of it back?
alwaysdrawing Posted April 8, 2020 Posted April 8, 2020 I'm buying puts on BURL. Retailer with 100% of stores closed indefinitely, with no sales on website, because they closed it last year (!), and trading for over 20x trailing profits. If they are closed for months, they will have stale inventory, This is an interesting problem for clothing retailers, or anyone else that sells seasonal goods. How far in advance does the typical clothing retailer acquire inventory, e.g., by mid-march I assume most winter clothing is already gone. Is the mid-march inventory primarily spring or summer clothes? Either way, it seems like there is going to be alot of out-of-season clothing around. Would off-price discounters benefit from that? Also, someone's going to have to eat most of that. Will brands take some of it back? Maybe off-price can buy tons of stuff cheap, but who wants Easter stuff after the holiday? How many people just don't need new swimsuits at any price if they are cancelling their trip to Hawaii? Plus, we were at all time high consumer sentiment in February....how's consumer sentiment now? All of my friends are delaying or cancelling vehicle/house purchases, and sticking to the necessities, even if they have money. Who is going "shopping" even if stores re-open? And to what extent was BURL's target market (women with incomes $25k-100k) affected financially?
Gregmal Posted April 8, 2020 Posted April 8, 2020 I'm buying puts on BURL. Retailer with 100% of stores closed indefinitely, with no sales on website, because they closed it last year (!), and trading for over 20x trailing profits. If they are closed for months, they will have stale inventory, a cash crunch, and are definitely not going to earn anything like last year's profits, and will almost certainly make significant losses. The valuation, which has only receded to levels seen last year in 2019, is still pricing in both profitability and growth, neither of which is likely. I highly doubt they will be able to survive if coronavirus keeps them shut down for long, and even if they re-open, it seems unlikely they will be returning to the same level of sales, to say nothing of profitability. My guess is shares trade down 75%+ over the next year, if they survive at all. Neat idea and hardly(to my knowledge) a crowded institutional idea either. How do look at structuring this in a cost effective manner? I gave it a quick glance and put it on the "take a look at" reminder list for later. But briefly, couldn't you construct a cheaper expression with an outright short and some calls to hedge? Or is this a "big expected downside so go really far out of the money" situation?
KJP Posted April 8, 2020 Posted April 8, 2020 I'm buying puts on BURL. Retailer with 100% of stores closed indefinitely, with no sales on website, because they closed it last year (!), and trading for over 20x trailing profits. If they are closed for months, they will have stale inventory, This is an interesting problem for clothing retailers, or anyone else that sells seasonal goods. How far in advance does the typical clothing retailer acquire inventory, e.g., by mid-march I assume most winter clothing is already gone. Is the mid-march inventory primarily spring or summer clothes? Either way, it seems like there is going to be alot of out-of-season clothing around. Would off-price discounters benefit from that? Also, someone's going to have to eat most of that. Will brands take some of it back? Maybe off-price can buy tons of stuff cheap, but who wants Easter stuff after the holiday? How many people just don't need new swimsuits at any price if they are cancelling their trip to Hawaii? Plus, we were at all time high consumer sentiment in February....how's consumer sentiment now? All of my friends are delaying or cancelling vehicle/house purchases, and sticking to the necessities, even if they have money. Who is going "shopping" even if stores re-open? And to what extent was BURL's target market (women with incomes $25k-100k) affected financially? I was just asking about the balance sheet writedowns to inventory (and potential covenant and working capital/cash flow arising therefrom) that seem likely. As you note, the fact that stores might not even be able to sell seasonally appropriate inventory is, of course, another even bigger potential problem.
alwaysdrawing Posted April 8, 2020 Posted April 8, 2020 I'm buying puts on BURL. Retailer with 100% of stores closed indefinitely, with no sales on website, because they closed it last year (!), and trading for over 20x trailing profits. If they are closed for months, they will have stale inventory, a cash crunch, and are definitely not going to earn anything like last year's profits, and will almost certainly make significant losses. The valuation, which has only receded to levels seen last year in 2019, is still pricing in both profitability and growth, neither of which is likely. I highly doubt they will be able to survive if coronavirus keeps them shut down for long, and even if they re-open, it seems unlikely they will be returning to the same level of sales, to say nothing of profitability. My guess is shares trade down 75%+ over the next year, if they survive at all. Neat idea and hardly(to my knowledge) a crowded institutional idea either. How do look at structuring this in a cost effective manner? I gave it a quick glance and put it on the "take a look at" reminder list for later. But briefly, couldn't you construct a cheaper expression with an outright short and some calls to hedge? Or is this a "big expected downside so go really far out of the money" situation? I just buy long out of the money puts.
changegonnacome Posted April 8, 2020 Posted April 8, 2020 I'm buying puts on BURL. Retailer with 100% of stores closed indefinitely, with no sales on website, because they closed it last year (!), and trading for over 20x trailing profits. If they are closed for months, they will have stale inventory, a cash crunch, and are definitely not going to earn anything like last year's profits, and will almost certainly make significant losses. The valuation, which has only receded to levels seen last year in 2019, is still pricing in both profitability and growth, neither of which is likely. I highly doubt they will be able to survive if coronavirus keeps them shut down for long, and even if they re-open, it seems unlikely they will be returning to the same level of sales, to say nothing of profitability. My guess is shares trade down 75%+ over the next year, if they survive at all. Neat idea and hardly(to my knowledge) a crowded institutional idea either. How do look at structuring this in a cost effective manner? I gave it a quick glance and put it on the "take a look at" reminder list for later. But briefly, couldn't you construct a cheaper expression with an outright short and some calls to hedge? Or is this a "big expected downside so go really far out of the money" situation? I just buy long out of the money puts. Very interesting - what dates you buying on the puts?
collegeinvestor Posted April 8, 2020 Posted April 8, 2020 Anyone looking into restaurant/food industry stocks? Im looking at: CAKE SYSCO Nibbled on: JPM, BRKB, WYNN, MSG
alwaysdrawing Posted April 8, 2020 Posted April 8, 2020 I'm buying puts on BURL. Retailer with 100% of stores closed indefinitely, with no sales on website, because they closed it last year (!), and trading for over 20x trailing profits. If they are closed for months, they will have stale inventory, a cash crunch, and are definitely not going to earn anything like last year's profits, and will almost certainly make significant losses. The valuation, which has only receded to levels seen last year in 2019, is still pricing in both profitability and growth, neither of which is likely. I highly doubt they will be able to survive if coronavirus keeps them shut down for long, and even if they re-open, it seems unlikely they will be returning to the same level of sales, to say nothing of profitability. My guess is shares trade down 75%+ over the next year, if they survive at all. Neat idea and hardly(to my knowledge) a crowded institutional idea either. How do look at structuring this in a cost effective manner? I gave it a quick glance and put it on the "take a look at" reminder list for later. But briefly, couldn't you construct a cheaper expression with an outright short and some calls to hedge? Or is this a "big expected downside so go really far out of the money" situation? I just buy long out of the money puts. Very interesting - what dates you buying on the puts? Mostly I buy longer dated stuff--Jan 2021. I have some shorter dates on this name too, but mostly I'm in Jan 2021 $100s/$120s
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