Jump to content

Eric - You Were Right


Parsad
 Share

Recommended Posts

Good call Eric, especially with BAC (at least so far). I bought a bit of BAC common this afternoon...Went up around 16% in the next hour. Still a very small part of my portfolio though.

 

Crazy market though... could easily go back down 500 points again tomorrow. Still have some cash ready, so I'd welcome it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Let's save the back patting on market timing to the "amateurs."  Pros buy early and sell early in increments over a period of time.

 

 

Isn't that what Wilbur said.

 

It's not back-patting, but trying to recognize the psychological aspect that gets manifested in market behavior.  Cheers!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Two things to watch like a hawk for the rest of the quarter (and at least until Turkey Day):

 

The ECB

 

-and-

 

The SuperCommittee

 

The psychology around these two entities will guide the market until @ least Columbus Day.  

I am going to let you in on a little secret the ECB is broke ,done like dinner, heres hoping that the rest of the world helps them out ...I think they are living on Bens swap line right now.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I was fully invested this whole year, but I changed things around to lever up -- selling things like DELL that held up well, down only 10% from where I'd bought.

 

Things I added:

5% of portfolio put into BAC $10 strike calls

17% of portfolio put into BAC 2019 warrants.

34% in AIG 2021 warrants.

 

Yes, die by the sword perhaps.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I was fully invested this whole year, but I changed things around to lever up -- selling things like DELL that held up well, down only 10% from where I'd bought.

 

Things I added:

5% of portfolio put into BAC $10 strike calls

17% of portfolio put into BAC 2019 warrants.

34% in AIG 2021 warrants.

 

Yes, die by the sword perhaps.

 

 

Wow! That is like 200% nominal portfolio exposure on just what you added!!

 

Vinod

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I was fully invested this whole year, but I changed things around to lever up -- selling things like DELL that held up well, down only 10% from where I'd bought.

 

Things I added:

5% of portfolio put into BAC $10 strike calls

17% of portfolio put into BAC 2019 warrants.

34% in AIG 2021 warrants.

 

Yes, die by the sword perhaps.

 

 

You put half your net worth in long dated warrants on 2 levered banks?  And here I thought I was gutsy. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I know, but I've been playing that game for several years.

 

Let's say I lose that 1/2 completely -- it's money I wouldn't have had in the first place.  It will still be okay though  8)

 

I put 2/3 of my taxable account in the warrants so that the govt will be cut out of the pie for a good long while.

 

The BAC $10 calls are in my RothIRA where they can be sold tax free.

 

EDIT:  I also have 30% in MBI.  Then a fair chunk in WFC calls.  Oh well, you might not hear from me again after they all go under.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Eric call was more function - How can market go down after I already made my huge adjustment  :) Just kidding.

 

On serious note, it's too early to tell even though I don't hold too much cash. I went into the two big downdays with only 10-12% cash due to buying increamentally for last month or so. Yesterday it was a day for selling cheap to buy cheaper. Again back to 10% cash level and likely to deploy it in next few weeks.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There are still a few dispiriting issues like the possibility of EU monetary and fiscal "responsibility", China's fixed investment boom (bubble?), and the declining effects of government funds in the U.S. Of course, all these factors are considered in your purchase price, but factors that you would think the market had to have already discounted end up hitting later.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...