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What did everyone buy today?


ourkid8
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I posted elsewhere but it makes sense for it to be here. HSE-T Husky oil Tol Bros 2013 Leaps BAC 2013 leaps and common and HXU-T a levered tse60 index. I was tempted on WFC but did not bite tomorrow perhaps. ING should be interesting as well will perhaps buy BRK tomorrow if its cheaper. I have corp debs which I will sell if mkt continues to decline biggest holding is FFH debs which I would gladly sell if FFH gets cheap enough I would rather own the common but with so many cheap insurance co's out there I could not see FFH valuation as all that compelling @ 400

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PWF-tsx - Reported 20% growth in earnings yesterday - went on sale today.

JPM - 2013 Leaps - small position - hard to resist after they sold 1.2 Billion of debt at dirt cheap rates yesterday.

Small amount of FFH during the late afternoon.

Some GE 2013 $15 Leaps

 

nothing new for me, just retreads.

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I just nibbled on some ATM Jan 13 LEAPS for WFC, MSFT and GS in case they run up quickly from here.  I want to keep some cash around for anything really crazy on the high quality blue chips.  

 

My lesson from the financial crisis was to grab the high quality stocks when you can.  I don't care what market it is, you will always find undervalued small/microcaps in the bargain bin.  And there will always be a special situation pipeline of some kind.  Or an undervalued sector.

 

But only in very rare situations do you find high quality on sale.  So I am taking them.  

 

 

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I added to my Marathon Petroleum (MPC) position. Spin off of refinery, distribution, retail stations and pipeline operations of Marathon Oil (MRO). Earned 2.23 this qtr. Expect earnings of $4-6 next 12 mos - depends on price of oil. Makes the p/e 5-6x Traded below $30 today May trade MRO shares for more MPC  

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I think the opportunities will keep coming for a while here.   Whether or not the reasons for it happening make any sense, I think BAC is going to be under some serious selling pressure for a little while here, and as long as they are dropping double digit percentages every day the rest of the market will get pulled down with them.  

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looks like there will be some more opportunity tomorrow...futures are down 300 pts at 9:43 pm.

 

Oh boy.

 

It's interesting that everyone seems to think that this is a minor market decline and a buying opportunity.  This blasé attitude scares me.  Except for our core holding, LRE, we've been at about 80% cash for some time.   If the wisdom of the herd proves to be right, and the markets bounce back, we should still have an opportunity to buy P&C cat exposed insurers at bargain prices because a  bounceback for them is likely to be attenuated by the hurricane season being yet to peak.

 

Best wishes to all.

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twacowfca - I agree with you, S&P 1100 is just when things begin to look interesting to me... I don't think the market is really all that cheap.  We've seen the markets go much lower than this, and although the catalysts that caused the last meltdown are not present there aren't any tailwinds either.

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It's interesting that everyone seems to think that this is a minor market decline and a buying opportunity.  This blasé attitude scares me.

 

My blase attitude comes from the discounted prices in the things I own.  I own some WFC calls for example, 2013 with strikes $15 and $20.  I expect they'll be earning nearly $4 a share by then and thus on that contract we're looking at forward expiration P/E of practically 5x right now, with probably at least $4 in earnings cumulatively before then.

 

HPQ is at $30.  Okay, that's only about 5x forward 18 months consensus earnings. 

 

This is just ridiculous.

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It's interesting that everyone seems to think that this is a minor market decline and a buying opportunity.  This blasé attitude scares me.

 

My blase attitude comes from the discounted prices in the things I own.  I own some WFC calls for example, 2013 with strikes $15 and $20.  I expect they'll be earning nearly $4 a share by then and thus on that contract we're looking at forward expiration P/E of practically 5x right now, with probably at least $4 in earnings cumulatively before then.

 

HPQ is at $30.  Okay, that's only about 5x forward 18 months consensus earnings. 

 

This is just ridiculous.

 

You're probably right.  On the other hand, the stock market is the best leading indicator for the economy. If the decline proves to be deep and extended, the economy may follow.  There aren't any more magic bullets in B&G's ammo bag.

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looks like there will be some more opportunity tomorrow...futures are down 300 pts at 9:43 pm.

 

Oh boy.

 

It's interesting that everyone seems to think that this is a minor market decline and a buying opportunity.  This blasé attitude scares me.  Except for our core holding, LRE, we've been at about 80% cash for some time.   If the wisdom of the herd proves to be right, and the markets bounce back, we should still have an opportunity to buy P&C cat exposed insurers at bargain prices because a  bounceback for them is likely to be attenuated by the hurricane season being yet to peak.

 

Best wishes to all.

 

Blase attitude=Just my way to deal with adversity.

 

Still almost 40% in cash, scaling in as the market declines as I have never had any luck at all trying to time the bottom, I have tried believe me in the past + managed to miss all of them.

 

I wish I had some LRE. It has not lost anything on the pink sheets i.e holding their value

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looks like there will be some more opportunity tomorrow...futures are down 300 pts at 9:43 pm.

 

Oh boy.

 

It's interesting that everyone seems to think that this is a minor market decline and a buying opportunity.  This blasé attitude scares me.  Except for our core holding, LRE, we've been at about 80% cash for some time.   If the wisdom of the herd proves to be right, and the markets bounce back, we should still have an opportunity to buy P&C cat exposed insurers at bargain prices because a  bounceback for them is likely to be attenuated by the hurricane season being yet to peak.

 

Best wishes to all.

 

Blase attitude=Just my way to deal with adversity.

 

Still almost 40% in cash, scaling in as the market declines as I have never had any luck at all trying to time the bottom, I have tried believe me in the past + managed to miss all of them.

 

I wish I had some LRE. It has not lost anything on the pink sheets i.e holding their value

 

Actually, I wouldn't mind if LRE dropped a lot.  I would rather add to our LRE holdings at close to book than buy many other good insurers at a big discount to book.

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You're probably right.  On the other hand, the stock market is the best leading indicator for the economy. If the decline proves to be deep and extended, the economy may follow.  There aren't any more magic bullets in B&G's ammo bag.

 

Considering the subject, i can not resist repeating the three rules of forecasting

 

(1) Do not forecast. But if you do, do it often

(2) Do not forecast. But if you do, forecast either value or timing but not both

(3) The stock market has forecasted nine of the last five recessions. Not bad for a forecaster.

 

Paraphrased from the same professor that Munger makes fun off for proposing and defending Random Walk and Efficient Markets while being an early Berkshire investor.

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