Myth465 Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 Not buying yet. My guess is people are only now starting to question earnings expectations for next year (and that they have to come down). Economically sensitive stuff is now getting hit (including the CAN$). When I see the 'safe' stuff (i.e. MSFT, ABT, KO etc) get hit hard then I will get greedy. Also, it looks like the S&P will be reaching a new low today... I am not a chart guy but I would expect this will create more negative sentiment in the short term. Getting there. Mr. Market is almost making me an offer I cant refuse. One stock is close to 1x Cash Flow lol. Cash still at 10%... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beerbaron Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 Canadian dollar went down too much for me to invest in US right now. What's is everybody looking at in the canadian equities? It was a good day indeed, lots of my trigger prices happened. I feel like a kid in a candy store again. 20% Cash still. BeerBaron Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest HarryLong Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 Not buying yet. My guess is people are only now starting to question earnings expectations for next year (and that they have to come down). Economically sensitive stuff is now getting hit (including the CAN$). When I see the 'safe' stuff (i.e. MSFT, ABT, KO etc) get hit hard then I will get greedy. Also, it looks like the S&P will be reaching a new low today... I am not a chart guy but I would expect this will create more negative sentiment in the short term. Getting there. Mr. Market is almost making me an offer I cant refuse. One stock is close to 1x Cash Flow lol. Cash still at 10%... Which stock at 1x cash flow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 ATSG is pretty close. EBITDA should be $200 million for 2012, Cash Flow is a bit farther off due to maintenance capex, all other capex is growth and should be profitable ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Viking Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 beerbaron, I am also looking for top quality stocks in Canada (like a MSFT, KO etc). Strong franchise, big moat, low debt, good to great management etc. VERY difficult! I do think Canadian banks are a good option; right now I hold BMO and likely will add RY as it seems to be the most unloved of the bunch. I looked into POW; my concern is their life insurance business should long rates stay low and equities weaken further. I have followed TS.B since FFH (and Chow) purchased a few years ago. The stock traded over $15 a couple of months ago and today traded as low as $7.60. It has a $0.50 dividend (+6% yield) that looks reasonably secure. They sold their 20% stake in CTV earlier this year and paid down debt (now just over $100 million); compared to 2008 they have significantly delevered their balance sheet. My concern is the underlying business. I would love to buy CN but it is not cheap enough yet. I am undecided what to do with the cyclicals. I like WFT and CFP but they are not cheap enough for me yet. Big oil is also something I will spend some time on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 Not buying yet. My guess is people are only now starting to question earnings expectations for next year (and that they have to come down). Economically sensitive stuff is now getting hit (including the CAN$). When I see the 'safe' stuff (i.e. MSFT, ABT, KO etc) get hit hard then I will get greedy. Also, it looks like the S&P will be reaching a new low today... I am not a chart guy but I would expect this will create more negative sentiment in the short term. Getting there. Mr. Market is almost making me an offer I cant refuse. One stock is close to 1x Cash Flow lol. Cash still at 10%... ATSG? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 ATSG? Yep Hete should be on the phone with DHL redefining the terms of the note which amortizes, to allow buybacks . I would like to see all FCF going to a buyback, screw new planes at these prices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merkhet Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 I think some people were busy doing research and buying, while some were simply "sighing" after looking at their portfolio value, and some may have started to give up. It will probably get busier on here after the markets close. Cheers! For me, it's the former. I've been shifting some stuff around in my portfolio. Still about 30% cash, but I've shifted some of the makeup of my other 70% towards more undervalued issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packer16 Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 I am sighing as my 2x FCF stocks become 1x FCF stocks. Two names that are this level are Lodgenet and LIN TV. What is incredible is that LIN TV bonds sell near par. In addition, Salem is the low 2.0' s times FCF. Just incredible. I wish I had more cash. Packer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beerbaron Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 beerbaron, I am also looking for top quality stocks in Canada (like a MSFT, KO etc). Strong franchise, big moat, low debt, good to great management etc. VERY difficult! I do think Canadian banks are a good option; right now I hold BMO and likely will add RY as it seems to be the most unloved of the bunch. I looked into POW; my concern is their life insurance business should long rates stay low and equities weaken further. I have followed TS.B since FFH (and Chow) purchased a few years ago. The stock traded over $15 a couple of months ago and today traded as low as $7.60. It has a $0.50 dividend (+6% yield) that looks reasonably secure. They sold their 20% stake in CTV earlier this year and paid down debt (now just over $100 million); compared to 2008 they have significantly delevered their balance sheet. My concern is the underlying business. I would love to buy CN but it is not cheap enough yet. I am undecided what to do with the cyclicals. I like WFT and CFP but they are not cheap enough for me yet. Big oil is also something I will spend some time on. Viking, I've been finding for the last few years that all Canadian equities are overpriced: -No good operating companies trade below 10x earnings. Most US ones do even for companies in the same fields and international sales. -Stock market to GDP is much higher in Canada then USA. -Financials in Canada have not been hit by any crisis... can you just imagine the impact if RB failed for some reason? When Lehman failed in the US and it killed the markets imagine an equivalent failure in a market 10 times smaller. I like your CN idea, but way too defensive compared with other defensive US stocks like WINN. I also been a very big fan of RCH, as it's one of the only operating company that I've seen in Canada with a consistent unlevered ROE in the 15%. It sucks to be Canadian these days. BeerBaron Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffmori7 Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 With our CAD$ falling a bit, I'm also starting to look more here in Canada. BAM seems an interesting company, but quite complex to understand. BMTC, Richlieu, Couche-Tard, CN are all good companies, but they never get so cheap too. Otherwise, RY is not that expensive, but nothing is really cheap... Any other ideas in Canada? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OracleofCarolina Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 I went back into WINN today and I adding alittle to my BAC, i hope they keep going down so I can buy more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 i hope they keep going down so I can buy more. That's selfish. ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 Any other ideas in Canada? ALS, FTP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biaggio Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 How about BPO below $12 (~ 10 x FFO, get a dividend, BV:$22, hedge against inflation) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
given2invest Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 At some point Parsad has to be fully invested cause every day the market goes down he shows up in this thread posting about how happy he is he got to add to his holdings ;D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gaf63 Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 Canadian stocks: PDS, below 8 at ~ 1.12 book,forward p/e at or below 10, ECA, at 80% book Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twacowfca Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 I am sighing as my 2x FCF stocks become 1x FCF stocks. Two names that are this level are Lodgenet and LIN TV. What is incredible is that LIN TV bonds sell near par. In addition, Salem is the low 2.0' s times FCF. Just incredible. I wish I had more cash. Packer Yes, but with lots of debt that will have to be paid off in the not too distant futuure, is that FCF really free? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packer16 Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 I think for Lodgenet not all of it however EBITDA coverage is over 3x. For TVL however, the bond market is saying it will get paid back and the EBITDA coverage is about 2.7x. If they can maintain these coverage ratios and rates stay low they may actually may be able to refinance at lower rates. Cumulus was able to re-finance at 6.2% with there combination of Citadel with lower coverage and a higher debt/EBITDA ratio. Both firms are currently paying 8 to 8.5% interest. If they can re-finance at Cumulus' rate, this would add even more FCF. The major risk is an advertising collapse but with the economy chugging along and the elections next year, I think the outlook for advertising is good but these firms don't need to grow just not collapse to provide good returns. Packer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncommonprofits Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 Any other ideas in Canada? A few very smartly run companies with growth potential - the first one could prove to be the cheapest. IDG - Last financing of digital Book division (Kobo) valued this segment at about $3.50/share. This segment is growing rapidly and probably worth more now. Eventual spinoff seems to be in the cards at a future date. - Close to $3/cash on the balance sheet. - Cash balance would be higher but the company has been purchasing NOL's to shelter future earnings (last purchase at about 11 cents on the dollar). Current NOL balance is about $6/share. - Net out the cash and one is picking up the book/gift retail business at <$1/share. Earnings before current restructuring and digital expansion is well over $1 ... closer to $2 when considering the significant tax free NOL balance. Retail business is being taken to the next level headed by new COO that was key in Urban Outfitter's very successful growth. - The stock is about $3.50 cheaper than the low during the panic in 08/09. Kobo was merely a vision then, while worth $3.50+ now. $6 in NOL's did not exist. - 6% div yield EFH - <.6x BV - Excess cash of at least $3/share - Market hardening. 2012 earnings projected at $1 + ... net the cash out and it's trading at ~ 4x PE. - Recent insider buying. GVC - Growth company, trading at less than 5x FCF - Publishing operation is much less effected by what is going on. - Very intelligent management, Shareholder Friendly. Buying back shares aggressively at this low price. VFF - This one has held up reasonably well - but it is still very cheap. - Turning into a growth story as they start building out their new high yield facilities. Years in front of competitors - somewhat of a moat. - Forecasting FCF for 2013 at about $0.40+/share pretax (3x based on current share price) --- and growing from there. - Insiders buying recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santayana Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 Everyone who thinks these kinds of days have been lovely should really be happy with the way today is shaping up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmitz Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 ATSG? Yep Hete should be on the phone with DHL redefining the terms of the note which amortizes, to allow buybacks . I would like to see all FCF going to a buyback, screw new planes at these prices. I've been adding slightly (and had been adding at somewhat higher levels), had to sell some other holdings to do so. I doubt they'd be able to buy back enough to make a difference but it would be nice to have the opportunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valuebo Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 Everyone who thinks these kinds of days have been lovely should really be happy with the way today is shaping up. I am! :) Problem is that it is hard to buy every lower dip when you're already fully invested and have a small portfolio. It won't be long before I start selling BRK for other stuff at this pace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valuebo Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 Anyone else buying? The forum seems dead. ??? Just bought some BAC at $5.63 and was hoping to switch some BRK to DELL & MSFT soon (like 2x 5% of my 75% position) but they remain to strong considering the upside and safety I get with BRK. Buybacks in full throttle? Also: http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:BAC http://www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ:DELL Every f*cking time. ;D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valuebo Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 "Investors are asking why should they buy stocks right now," said Robert Pavlik, chief market strategist at Banyan Partners. "Because they look cheap? Right now, that's not good enough for anybody, even if you're a long-term investor. The way it's been going, tomorrow they're going to be cheaper." Silly Mr. Market. Let's hope the rumors from Europe hold some level of truth. Today even more people reported (on a European forum elsewhere) that they sold their stocks. A lot of them were in biotech, chinese companies, low quality banks and insurers,... The volatility is crazy, SD for example went from a day low of $4.55 to a high of $5.42, that's almost 20%? ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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