Am I the only one here who's had a rubbish first Half of the year?

[SharperDingaan]

1 hour ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

Biggest holdings are Fairfax, Fairfax India, Exor, Bitcoin, Prosus & Alibaba, and Molina Healthcare. 

All have been miserable to flat YTD. 

 

BTC leg of a mid Feb pair trade sold at around USD 89K (via a BTC-ETF), the o/g leg put on shortly before the Iran war. While analytics helped with the decision, the reality is that much of it was luck ... and exposing ourselves to it (tail risk). Long straddles .....

 

Good luck.

 

SD

Edited Wednesday at 10:46 PM by SharperDingaan

[Castanza]

On 7/1/2026 at 10:00 AM, Gamecock-YT said:

A crowded trade is still a crowded trade, even if the crowd has a high IQ.

 

On 7/1/2026 at 8:42 AM, Gamecock-YT said:

"You can't take the same actions as everyone else and expect to outperform."

 

What's the litmus test for "being crowded?" Fairfax gets almost no mention outside of this site, but that's rare for an equity. At the same time if you spend time on X.com (I no longer do) it's not hard to find yourself in some reinforcing algo cycle of being pitched value stocks (many of which I see on here) by specific accounts. So it does make me wonder.....is the retail market becoming more.....influencer, algo, efficiently driven "influeicient"? And how is the "algo push" bleeding into other areas (this site etc.) of idea generation? 

[Eldad]

4 minutes ago, Castanza said:

 

 

What's the litmus test for "being crowded?" Fairfax gets almost no mention outside of this site, but that's rare for an equity. At the same time if you spend time on X.com (I no longer do) it's not hard to find yourself in some reinforcing algo cycle of being pitched value stocks (many of which I see on here) by specific accounts. So it does make me wonder.....is the retail market becoming more.....influencer, algo, efficiently driven "influeicient"? And how is the "algo push" bleeding into other areas (this site etc.) of idea generation? 

Good point. I have noticed on the YouTube type investing shows/podcasts they all mention the same tired points or most obvious moats on stocks and act like it’s a big secret that they constantly explain over and over on all the different shows. Like they are all only learning from each other. I get the sense that there is not much reading or real work going on out there. If my kids (7yo - 13yo) are any indication, deep reading is about to become a very rare super power if it is not already. 

[Milu]

41 minutes ago, Eldad said:

Good point. I have noticed on the YouTube type investing shows/podcasts they all mention the same tired points or most obvious moats on stocks and act like it’s a big secret that they constantly explain over and over on all the different shows. Like they are all only learning from each other. I get the sense that there is not much reading or real work going on out there. If my kids (7yo - 13yo) are any indication, deep reading is about to become a very rare super power if it is not already. 

Add llm's to the mix and now every investor can spew bolded bullet points about how company xyz's moat is invincible, or condensing 10k's and earnings call transcripts into 5 key takeaways, thus missing any real understanding or nuance. I actually think next few years could be a fruitful experience for the genuinely good investors. 

[Gregmal]

4 minutes ago, Milu said:

Add llm's to the mix and now every investor can spew bolded bullet points about how company xyz's moat is invincible, or condensing 10k's and earnings call transcripts into 5 key takeaways, thus missing any real understanding or nuance. I actually think next few years could be a fruitful experience for the genuinely good investors. 

This is the absolute worst. Im already completely tired of having to engage with people whom think like this. If youre using AI to make investments, I dont want to waste my time discussing them with you LOL

 

Like dont get me wrong, it's a helpful tool at times, as a cog, but making your judgment calls based on "what Ai says" is pure stupidity. 

[Milu]

1 hour ago, Gregmal said:

This is the absolute worst. Im already completely tired of having to engage with people whom think like this. If youre using AI to make investments, I dont want to waste my time discussing them with you LOL

 

Like dont get me wrong, it's a helpful tool at times, as a cog, but making your judgment calls based on "what Ai says" is pure stupidity. 

Ya one of my pet hates is when I see some wall of text from Gemini cut and pasted into a thread as if this is supposed to add insight or back up an argument. All of us on the forum are well able to ask questions to Gemini/Claude etc and get similar answers so I don’t know how it adds anything to the conversation. I think AI is a great tool but should be used as an add-on to people’s investment research not a replacement. 

[LC]

Ask me this question 3 days ago and I'm underperforming the SPY, end of day today I'm outperforming by 100bp. Been holding too much damn cash (15% start of year; 30% now). Nothing hitting me in the face, though.

 

But ultimately can't get too caught up comparisons...at this stage as long as I maintain my purchasing power then the rest is gravy, as they say.

[Castanza]

6 hours ago, Eldad said:

Good point. I have noticed on the YouTube type investing shows/podcasts they all mention the same tired points or most obvious moats on stocks and act like it’s a big secret that they constantly explain over and over on all the different shows. Like they are all only learning from each other. I get the sense that there is not much reading or real work going on out there. If my kids (7yo - 13yo) are any indication, deep reading is about to become a very rare super power if it is not already. 

And I’m duly guilty of this as well…honestly with life being busy it’s never been easier to be lazy and simultaneously convince yourself that you’re not lazy. The algos and curated echo chambers are your own worst enemy. I know for sure I could take my portfolio and find countless other investors on X, YouTube, Apple Podcasts or even COBF that share similar rational and holdings. I’m just not certain how good or bad that is. End of the day people have always had preference or “circles of competence” as Buffett would put it…but now it’s quite easy to find your herd and get stuck in an echo chamber. 

[Gregmal]

48 minutes ago, Castanza said:

And I’m duly guilty of this as well…honestly with life being busy it’s never been easier to be lazy and simultaneously convince yourself that you’re not lazy. The algos and curated echo chambers are your own worst enemy. I know for sure I could take my portfolio and find countless other investors on X, YouTube, Apple Podcasts or even COBF that share similar rational and holdings. I’m just not certain how good or bad that is. End of the day people have always had preference or “circles of competence” as Buffett would put it…but now it’s quite easy to find your herd and get stuck in an echo chamber. 

Yea lol I’ve definitely noticed some of this. Of my core positions, they haven’t really changed much over the past 3-4 years. But, thread popularity and interest? Fairfax, sure it’s a cult here, nothings changed. Joe peak interest was 2023. Nintendo is actually kinda right now. Not a ton a few years ago, everyone wanted Disney. And MSG(E/S) everyone basically lost interest after they went up 10% from $30/$150 a share…definitely something to observe. 

[kab60]

On 7/1/2026 at 1:55 PM, 73 Reds said:

The question that comes to mind is, based on current and projected earnings of some of these semi stocks, why shouldn't they trade at current prices?

Because current and NTM earnings means very little for the intrinsic value of a stock. People focus on the low P (like rubbish commodity investors...), when the bubble seems to be in the E. Now this time might be different and all, but exploding gross margins are the hallmarks of a commodity (up)cycle. Lumber bros, met coal bros, shipping bros, gas bros can all tell semi bros a story as to what probably happens next.

[John Hjorth]

13 hours ago, Milu said:

Add llm's to the mix and now every investor can spew bolded bullet points about how company xyz's moat is invincible, or condensing 10k's and earnings call transcripts into 5 key takeaways, thus missing any real understanding or nuance. I actually think next few years could be a fruitful experience for the genuinely good investors. 

 

13 hours ago, Gregmal said:

This is the absolute worst. Im already completely tired of having to engage with people whom think like this. If youre using AI to make investments, I dont want to waste my time discussing them with you LOL

 

Like dont get me wrong, it's a helpful tool at times, as a cog, but making your judgment calls based on "what Ai says" is pure stupidity. 

 

LoL! - Gave me a good laugh.  - Bolded bullet points are great!

[scorpioncapital]

Do you guys calculate your returns before or after any withdrawals from your accounts to spend, or do you not live off your capital? I find it very different people who have a good side income/salary and invest surplus capital and those who are say retired and living off the surplus capital exclusively or for the most part in terms of how returns are calculated and what matters in terms of return thresholds.

Edited 1 hour ago by scorpioncapital

[73 Reds]

23 minutes ago, scorpioncapital said:

Do you guys calculate your returns before or after any withdrawals from your accounts to spend, or do you not live off your capital? I find it very different people who have a good side income/salary and invest surplus capital and those who are say retired and living off the surplus capital exclusively or for the most part in terms of how returns are calculated and what matters in terms of return thresholds.

I don't calculate returns but every so often consider an approximate net worth.  To your point, it is probably worthwhile to maintain different streams of income in retirement that are not necessarily correlated and at least one of which you maintain complete control.  Public equities are fine but other than the price you buy and sell, all the control is with someone else.  

[longlake95]

59 minutes ago, scorpioncapital said:

Do you guys calculate your returns before or after any withdrawals from your accounts to spend, or do you not live off your capital? I find it very different people who have a good side income/salary and invest surplus capital and those who are say retired and living off the surplus capital exclusively or for the most part in terms of how returns are calculated and what matters in terms of return thresholds.

I use money-weighted returns. My broker website calculates money-weighted or time-weighted returns. The regulators in Canada have moved more towards investment firms providing money weighted returns, which provide a more realistic return on your account as it takes into account deposits and withdrawals from your account.