Fairfax 2026

[Jaygo]

Yes that is crazy. And yes I love to see it. 

[SafetyinNumbers]

I think the buybacks also show that @dartmonkey’s research was correct. They can buy above the daily limit as long as they buy the incremental amount on an ATS and the 2% rule doesn’t apply. 
 

 

[Crip1]

11 minutes ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

I think the buybacks also show that @dartmonkey’s research was correct. They can buy above the daily limit as long as they buy the incremental amount on an ATS and the 2% rule doesn’t apply. 
 

 

Wow...early June is right about when the share price hit rock bottom. Openly wondering where the share price would be now if these purchases had not happened. Clearly, not too many buyers out there...except for the investors who know more about the company than anyone.

 

-Crip

[SafetyinNumbers]

4 minutes ago, Crip1 said:

Wow...early June is right about when the share price hit rock bottom. Openly wondering where the share price would be now if these purchases had not happened. Clearly, not too many buyers out there...except for the investors who know more about the company than anyone.

 

-Crip

To that end, has anyone calculated how much they have spent on the buyback so far this year? My guess on capacity was $2.4-3b. 
 

For Q1: During the quarter we purchased 374,883 subordinate voting shares for cancellation for cash consideration of $631.3 million, or $1,684 per share.

 

Prices in Q2 were a bit lower and they bought 300k more shares. 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

5 hours ago, djokovic1 said:

maybe, maybe not. We can try to rationalize it in hindsight. The true test is if you can predict when it happens ex ante. I would suggest that’s impossible. 
 

for example consensus was Fairfax added to TSX will lead to multiple

expansion but that didn’t happen

 

The hard part is the logic makes sense, but it's not uncommon for new index additions to underperform while new index exclusions outperform which defies the logic. 

 

People front run news. 

 

3 hours ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

It’s still supply and demand. Long term buybacks will reduce supply, sellers will face bigger capital gains bills so reduce supply and passive demand doesn’t care about value. Momentum investors moving in and out will oscillate the multiple but over time it should trend higher all else being equal. 

 

I agree, but ultimately the impact might be too small to notice. 

 

For instance, suppose in 2027 we average 1.7x book, and in 2028 we average 1.8x book, and in 2029 we average 1.9x book. 

 

But they're averages - so there will be plenty of time above, and below, those levels through daily variations in share price. It wouldnt be crazy to think we could be at 1.7x and 1.9x at varying times in both 2027 and 2029.

 

So are you even going to notice the rising multiple? Is it going to be a trend you can trade? Or should  we just ignore the average multiple and focus on earnings, earnings growth, and trajectory? I think the latter is going to be more meaningful and we can simply ignore any supposed fluctuation in the multiple unless if it trades beyond the edges of reasonability. 

[Hoodlum]

26 minutes ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

To that end, has anyone calculated how much they have spent on the buyback so far this year? My guess on capacity was $2.4-3b. 
 

For Q1: During the quarter we purchased 374,883 subordinate voting shares for cancellation for cash consideration of $631.3 million, or $1,684 per share.

 

Prices in Q2 were a bit lower and they bought 300k more shares. 

I presume your Q2 300k share buybacks does not include June, as it looks like they bought back ~500k that month. 

[Intelligent_Investor]

So its confirmed the big block trades we've seen are repurchases?