Fairfax 2026

[gfp]

1 minute ago, Crip1 said:

Voting machine - Weighing machine

 

A week ago is when earnings came out. It's hard to argue that FFH had a notably better Q1 earnings report than did FIH, yet FIH share price has outperformed per the first graphic below. Looking at the YTD comparison, again, the news out of FFH outside of the earnings report (Poseidon) has been notably better than FIH (Sanmar) but, again, not only has FIH share price outperformed, it's outperformed dramatically even accounting for the FFH dividend.

 

Efficient markets? I don't believe so.

 

-Crip

 

 

Everything that was reported in the FIH.u earnings release was already known by the market, right?   Sanmar exit had been released, mark to market losses on public equities was known.  Since last week they announced a material deal with IIFL Capital.

[Crip1]

40 minutes ago, gfp said:

 

 

Everything that was reported in the FIH.u earnings release was already known by the market, right?   Sanmar exit had been released, mark to market losses on public equities was known.  Since last week they announced a material deal with IIFL Capital.

In regards to the earnings, the write down on Sanmar and the currency loss were both more than I expected. If others pegged that, then mea culpa. Regarding the 2026 YTD difference, it's difficult to argue that FIH has had a better 4 months than FFH. I gave up trying to understand market sentiment a long time ago...it will always confound me.

 

-Crip

[TwoCitiesCapital]

One also traded at a 30-40% discount to its NAV while the other trades above book. So it can make sense that the cheap one 'outperformed' over the short period of time simply through mean reversion even if the business developments since haven't been the best. That's what a cheap price affordable you 

[Crip1]

5 hours ago, Crip1 said:

Voting machine - Weighing machine

 

A week ago is when earnings came out. It's hard to argue that FFH had a notably better Q1 earnings report than did FIH, yet FIH share price has outperformed per the first graphic below. Looking at the YTD comparison, again, the news out of FFH outside of the earnings report (Poseidon) has been notably better than FIH (Sanmar) but, again, not only has FIH share price outperformed, it's outperformed dramatically even accounting for the FFH dividend.

 

Efficient markets? I don't believe so.

 

-Crip

* Tongue firmly planted in cheek *

 

Wow, I posted those graphs late morning today and look what happened. I move markets. 

 

-Crip

 

[SafetyinNumbers]

On 5/7/2026 at 5:08 PM, Hoodlum said:

Does anyone have access to the share buybacks in April?   I presume most of the buying would have occurred before the earnings blackout.

Buybacks were limited during quiet period. My guess is they used 5k shares a day and a C$2350 limit. I assumes that means they have been active since they reported as the stock has stayed below that level. 
 

 

[Hoodlum]

13 minutes ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

Buybacks were limited during quiet period. My guess is they used 5k shares a day and a C$2350 limit. I assumes that means they have been active since they reported as the stock has stayed below that level. 
 

 

Thanks. Certainly lower than I thought it could be. 
 

Edited May 8 by Hoodlum

[djokovic1]

I’m pretty certain, The buyback will be on at 1% a month till the next black out period (as long as the share price is at these levels).

[investmd]

Video on topic often discussed here on COBF : Is FFH today a young BRK? 

 

Lauren Templeton is a current member of Board of Directors at FFH, Founder of Templeton and Phillips Mgmt and great niece of John Templeton. She gave a talk last week in Omaha where she made a strong case for investing in FFH based on data showing why FFH today is where BRK was 30 years ago. Her talk was part of ValueX BRK. For those that want to watch, her talk starts at 4hr, 3mins mark of the video. The presentation as well as Q&A lasts 15mins. 

 

I didn't have any obvious push backs to Lauren Templeton's argument. Curious if anyone here has a contrarian view to hers or questions any of her data points. 

[SafetyinNumbers]

5 hours ago, investmd said:

Video on topic often discussed here on COBF : Is FFH today a young BRK? 

 

Lauren Templeton is a current member of Board of Directors at FFH, Founder of Templeton and Phillips Mgmt and great niece of John Templeton. She gave a talk last week in Omaha where she made a strong case for investing in FFH based on data showing why FFH today is where BRK was 30 years ago. Her talk was part of ValueX BRK. For those that want to watch, her talk starts at 4hr, 3mins mark of the video. The presentation as well as Q&A lasts 15mins. 

 

I didn't have any obvious push backs to Lauren Templeton's argument. Curious if anyone here has a contrarian view to hers or questions any of her data points. 

I thought it was very well done. It will be interesting how long Friday’s low lasts. There is a decent chance we don’t see that price again given the valuation and earnings momentum. If so, it will hereby be known as the Templeton Bottom. 

[SafetyinNumbers]

5 hours ago, djokovic1 said:

I’m pretty certain, The buyback will be on at 1% a month till the next black out period (as long as the share price is at these levels).

The cadence will be interesting for sure. I assume some people are disappointed with April’s buybacks but with the current market structure, being price sensitive is paying off. 

[investmd]

31 minutes ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

I thought it was very well done. It will be interesting how long Friday’s low lasts. There is a decent chance we don’t see that price again given the valuation and earnings momentum. If so, it will hereby be known as the Templeton Bottom. 

+1 Templeton Bottom 

[backtothebeach]

11 hours ago, investmd said:

I didn't have any obvious push backs to Lauren Templeton's argument. Curious if anyone here has a contrarian view to hers or questions any of her data points. 

No pushback, but I thought she could have inflation adjusted the comparison to Berkshire in the 90s.

[SafetyinNumbers]

1 hour ago, backtothebeach said:

No pushback, but I thought she could have inflation adjusted the comparison to Berkshire in the 90s.

I would have discussed the leverage too. Hamblin Watsa doesn’t have to be as good at picking stocks as Buffett was but they might be given their investment style is perfect for this market structure. They have been great recently but the returns haven’t made their way into the reported numbers b/c of accounting rules.

[Maverick47]

2 hours ago, backtothebeach said:

No pushback, but I thought she could have inflation adjusted the comparison to Berkshire in the 90s.

Good point.  So that means one could push back the comparison to Berkshire’s size even a bit further into the past.  With a greater emphasis of Fairfax on share buybacks, the inflation adjusted comparison can point to a potentially longer runway than 30 years for Fairfax before size becomes as much an impediment to outperforming the market as it is for Berkshire today.

 

Somewhat gratifying to consider since that pretty much matches my projected remaining lifespan…analogous to asset/liability matching I suppose!

[djokovic1]

10 hours ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

The cadence will be interesting for sure. I assume some people are disappointed with April’s buybacks but with the current market structure, being price sensitive is paying off. 

 

Earnings were on April 30th so I am confused how they were buying back shares on 28-30th which clearly was during their closed period?

Does it mean they don't have a buyback restriction during closed period? If that is true, then the buyback was purely limited by the $2,350 price limit (as you suggested)

[gfp]

36 minutes ago, djokovic1 said:

 

Earnings were on April 30th so I am confused how they were buying back shares on 28-30th which clearly was during their closed period?

Does it mean they don't have a buyback restriction during closed period? If that is true, then the buyback was purely limited by the $2,350 price limit (as you suggested)

 

They have renewed their ASPP (Automatic Securities Purchase Plan) alongside their NCIB (Normal Course Issuer Bid) each year.  Think of an ASPP as being similar to a 10b5-1 plan in the USA in that you have a pre-defined set of rules and a broker executes it on your behalf - even during "blackout" periods.

 

Most recent announcement (scroll way down for ASPP)

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/09/26/3156967/0/en/Intention-to-Make-a-Normal-Course-Issuer-Bid-for-Subordinate-Voting-Shares-and-Preferred-Shares.html

Edited May 9 by gfp

[djokovic1]

24 minutes ago, gfp said:

 

They have renewed their ASPP (Automatic Securities Purchase Plan) alongside their NCIB (Normal Course Issuer Bid) each year.  Think of an ASPP as being similar to a 10b5-1 plan in the USA in that you have a pre-defined set of rules and a broker executes it on your behalf - even during "blackout" periods.

 

Most recent announcement (scroll way down for ASPP)

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/09/26/3156967/0/en/Intention-to-Make-a-Normal-Course-Issuer-Bid-for-Subordinate-Voting-Shares-and-Preferred-Shares.html

thanks!

[djokovic1]

I spent a bit of time analysing their buybacks the last 12 months. A few observations:

 

i) During closed period, roughly 1 month prior to earnings they put in a stricter limit on the buyback relative to when they do they buyback on their own through the NCIB. This limit seems to have been roughly CAD $2,350. In the recent past closed periods the reason they have bought back more is because the share price has usually been below that limit. This most recent closed period which was all of April, the share price was mostly above that limit as @SafetyinNumbers post shows.

ii) The highest buyback price I have seen (not in closed period) is $2,475 so they have a higher limit on buybacks when they are doing it themselves (which makes sense as they are in control rather than a third party doing it)

 

iii) This also means its likely that in non-closed period, if the shares price is depressed as currently, they are very likely to be buying back aggressively (my guess 1% a month).

 

iv) The buyback price limit for excess cash should also be raised over time in line with intrinsic value compounding. Will be interesting to follow their actions albeit with a 1 month lag.

 

 

[SafetyinNumbers]

18 minutes ago, djokovic1 said:

I spent a bit of time analysing their buybacks the last 12 months. A few observations:

 

i) During closed period, roughly 1 month prior to earnings they put in a stricter limit on the buyback relative to when they do they buyback on their own through the NCIB. This limit seems to have been roughly CAD $2,350. In the recent past closed periods the reason they have bought back more is because the share price has usually been below that limit. This most recent closed period which was all of April, the share price was mostly above that limit as @SafetyinNumbers post shows.

ii) The highest buyback price I have seen (not in closed period) is $2,475 so they have a higher limit on buybacks when they are doing it themselves (which makes sense as they are in control rather than a third party doing it)

 

iii) This also means its likely that in non-closed period, if the shares price is depressed as currently, they are very likely to be buying back aggressively (my guess 1% a month).

 

iv) The buyback price limit for excess cash should also be raised over time in line with intrinsic value compounding. Will be interesting to follow their actions albeit with a 1 month lag.

 

 

That’s been my observation as well. I assume they are responsive to blocks at current prices but I don’t have the data to see if any have crossed between 9:45am-3:45pm at Scotia. If someone has the data and can see how much Scotia is buying every day, it might give some clues on buyback activity level generally even though they will certainly have other clients trading FFH with them as well. 
 

I think their buyback intensity is mainly driven by the P/B multiple. This is similar to Eurobank (files buybacks weekly), MKL or BRK. Exactly what I want to see as a long term shareholder. I used to be in a rush on buybacks because the multiple might get away from us but now I think that won’t happen until the next hard market which might be a long time from now. 
 

I’m guessing they have $2-2.4b to spend this year on buybacks and a third through the year they have spent about a third of that range so right on track. They might be able to extend the Allied World option another year which might give them more fire power. 

[Hoodlum]

30 minutes ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

That’s been my observation as well. I assume they are responsive to blocks at current prices but I don’t have the data to see if any have crossed between 9:45am-3:45pm at Scotia. If someone has the data and can see how much Scotia is buying every day, it might give some clues on buyback activity level generally even though they will certainly have other clients trading FFH with them as well. 
 

I think their buyback intensity is mainly driven by the P/B multiple. This is similar to Eurobank (files buybacks weekly), MKL or BRK. Exactly what I want to see as a long term shareholder. I used to be in a rush on buybacks because the multiple might get away from us but now I think that won’t happen until the next hard market which might be a long time from now. 
 

I’m guessing they have $2-2.4b to spend this year on buybacks and a third through the year they have spent about a third of that range so right on track. They might be able to extend the Allied World option another year which might give them more fire power. 

Is there any reason why you think they could extend the Allied World option for another year?  

[gfp]

45 minutes ago, Hoodlum said:

Is there any reason why you think they could extend the Allied World option for another year?  

 

By virtue of it being a call option that Fairfax holds to acquire the remaining 16.6% of Allied World, it is not mandatory that they execute it before it expires (it is not a put option held by OMERS and the others).  The call option might be at a price that is better than what letting it expire would result in, so Fairfax may have every incentive to exercise it if they have the capital.  They may also be able to do a partial exercise in connection with a re-negotiation for another option on a remaining minority interest.  These minority interest financings are more like preferred equity financing than pure equity ownership by OMERS et al - if the implied rate OMERS is earning over time is satisfactory for them, they may be content to let it ride further.  Especially if its better than what they could get, risk adjusted, on something else in today's market.

 

The original "call option" to acquire the remainder of Allied World expired in September 2024 but Fairfax bought some of the minority interest and negotiated a 2-year extension of the "call option" on the remainder.

 

It's nice to have fair and friendly partners and it swings both ways if you live by that golden rule don't ya know...

 

What do they need to come up with to fully close out the non-controlling interest?  Call it $2 Billion cash?  Does it result in an accounting loss since they will be paying a premium over the carrying value of Allied World on their books or does it result in a write-up of the other 83.4% of Allied World they have on their books at a lower valuation?

 

 

[SafetyinNumbers]

26 minutes ago, gfp said:

By virtue of it being a call option that Fairfax holds to acquire the remaining 16.6% of Allied World, it is not mandatory that they execute it before it expires (it is not a put option held by OMERS and the others).  The call option might be at a price that is better than what letting it expire would result in, so Fairfax may have every incentive to exercise it if they have the capital.  They may also be able to do a partial exercise in connection with a re-negotiation for another option on a remaining minority interest.  These minority interest financings are more like preferred equity financing than pure equity ownership by OMERS et al - if the implied rate OMERS is earning over time is satisfactory for them, they may be content to let it ride further.  Especially if its better than what they could get, risk adjusted, on something else in today's market.

Correct, they are like preferred shares even though they are treated like common for accounting purposes. While the minority interests do no have a put option they can ask for an IPO if the shares are not redeemed by expiry of the call unless it’s extended. 
 

29 minutes ago, gfp said:

What do they need to come up with to fully close out the non-controlling interest?  Call it $2 Billion cash?

I don’t think it’s that much. The way these seem to work is there is a preferred rate of return. For Brit is it seemed to be around 6%. For Ki, it’s explicitly 8% as disclosed in its shareholder agreement. As long as dividends are fully paid (which they likely are given the soft market) then the buyout cost should be the same as when they were issued. 

 

31 minutes ago, gfp said:

Does it result in an accounting loss since they will be paying a premium over the carrying value of Allied World on their books or does it result in a write-up of the other 83.4% of Allied World they have on their books at a lower valuation?

I think the cost of the purchase just gets added to the carrying cost of Allied World. It should be very accretive as the minority interests are deducted as if the minority actually has an economic interest of 16.6% but the buyback price will be much lower. This should boost forward ROE. 

[SafetyinNumbers]

1 hour ago, Hoodlum said:

Is there any reason why you think they could extend the Allied World option for another year?  

The reason would be despite using most of the capital they had allocated to buybacks, the P/B multiple is significantly lower in September which is possible. 

[Hoodlum]

37 minutes ago, gfp said:

 

By virtue of it being a call option that Fairfax holds to acquire the remaining 16.6% of Allied World, it is not mandatory that they execute it before it expires (it is not a put option held by OMERS and the others).  The call option might be at a price that is better than what letting it expire would result in, so Fairfax may have every incentive to exercise it if they have the capital.  They may also be able to do a partial exercise in connection with a re-negotiation for another option on a remaining minority interest.  These minority interest financings are more like preferred equity financing than pure equity ownership by OMERS et al - if the implied rate OMERS is earning over time is satisfactory for them, they may be content to let it ride further.  Especially if its better than what they could get, risk adjusted, on something else in today's market.

 

The original "call option" to acquire the remainder of Allied World expired in September 2024 but Fairfax bought some of the minority interest and negotiated a 2-year extension of the "call option" on the remainder.

 

It's nice to have fair and friendly partners and it swings both ways if you live by that golden rule don't ya know...

 

What do they need to come up with to fully close out the non-controlling interest?  Call it $2 Billion cash?  Does it result in an accounting loss since they will be paying a premium over the carrying value of Allied World on their books or does it result in a write-up of the other 83.4% of Allied World they have on their books at a lower valuation?

 

 

that is interesting. I didn’t realize the flexibility to this option to purchase. 

[gfp]

20 minutes ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

I think the cost of the purchase just gets added to the carrying cost of Allied World. It should be very accretive as the minority interests are deducted as if the minority actually has an economic interest of 16.6% but the buyback price will be much lower. This should boost forward ROE. 

 

But there was a loss recognized on excess of $$$ paid over carrying value on earlier Allied World minority interest buy outs right?  As in, some premium to straight book value?

 

Even old man Buffett requires 8% annually plus a one-time 10% kicker to get out of your preferred.  We all learned from the best right?