Portfolio 2026

[Parsad]

10 hours ago, 73 Reds said:

OK.  But anyone here who feels like they have a better handle on their picks than Viking has on Fairfax, please share your picks and thoughts.

 

Viking has an exceptional handle on Fairfax.  But no investor should rely on someone else's analysis, unless you simply want to remain a passive investor.  The reason being, if you don't do the work like Viking, your conviction level will never be like Viking's.  

 

I don't buy stuff because Prem or Buffett bought it...never have.  I learned my lesson the hard way when I first started 26 years ago by buying a couple of things Seth Klarman bought.  Worse mistakes of my life!  After that, I told myself I would never trust anyone else's analysis...NO ONE!  

 

It's why I didn't give two shits when people weren't buying FFH at $450...or META at $100 and they were telling me Zuck's lost his mind...or LULU because retail is "just too hard" and "based on trends".  

 

Do the work...trust your own analysis...and never, ever get bullied into buying because "you might miss out"!  Cheers!

[bizaro86]

17 hours ago, 73 Reds said:

Perhaps, but someone please explain how a company that has grown BV 18%+/year since inception with no end in sight that remains one of the cheapest companies in its sector is not worth owning by members of a forum dedicated to investing in such companies.   And then let us know how much better your *worst*  picks have done.  By my measure we should have a lot of billionaires (at least in the making) here!

 

I don't own Fairfax. I used to own Fairfax India and sold when they did a value-destroying transaction on the airport with OMERS to crystalize a fee gain. Imo that was untrustworthy and I don't buy compounders where I don't trust management.

 

That hasn't been all bad - my 1,5,10 year returns all beat Fairfax by a significant margin (and the 10 year isn't even close), and 3 year is neck and neck. Mostly by not holding compounders, but instead buying decent quality businesses when they're beaten up and holding for the turn. Biggest example this year was MEG Energy, the best oilsands asset in Canada (50% gain in ~6 months on a big position). 

 

I bough Fairfax when the most recent short report came out and held for a pop, and made a huge % gain on Macy's calls. I also sell a lot of options - eg I sold some naked calls on SOC which was a hype train where fintwit thought they'd get an approval from California (narrator: they didn't) but even if they did it was already trading above the upside business value.

 

My biggest compounder type positions are IBKR and GOOG. 

 

Anyway - I'm not saying FFH is a bad company, and I definitely respect Viking. But I personally don't trust management and therefore wouldnt have the resolve to hold it in a downdraft, so it's better for me to not own it at all.

 

Current ideas that fit this pattern: CPNG (small because I'm at a disadvantage re: Korea) and VG. Both of these mostly with options.

 

 

[Parsad]

1 hour ago, bizaro86 said:

 

I don't own Fairfax. I used to own Fairfax India and sold when they did a value-destroying transaction on the airport with OMERS to crystalize a fee gain. Imo that was untrustworthy and I don't buy compounders where I don't trust management.

 

That hasn't been all bad - my 1,5,10 year returns all beat Fairfax by a significant margin (and the 10 year isn't even close), and 3 year is neck and neck. Mostly by not holding compounders, but instead buying decent quality businesses when they're beaten up and holding for the turn. Biggest example this year was MEG Energy, the best oilsands asset in Canada (50% gain in ~6 months on a big position). 

 

I bough Fairfax when the most recent short report came out and held for a pop, and made a huge % gain on Macy's calls. I also sell a lot of options - eg I sold some naked calls on SOC which was a hype train where fintwit thought they'd get an approval from California (narrator: they didn't) but even if they did it was already trading above the upside business value.

 

My biggest compounder type positions are IBKR and GOOG. 

 

Anyway - I'm not saying FFH is a bad company, and I definitely respect Viking. But I personally don't trust management and therefore wouldnt have the resolve to hold it in a downdraft, so it's better for me to not own it at all.

 

Current ideas that fit this pattern: CPNG (small because I'm at a disadvantage re: Korea) and VG. Both of these mostly with options.

 

 

 

As you might have read, I'm not a proponent of someone buying Fairfax or Berkshire, just because they are Fairfax and Berkshire.  But I have to disagree with you on two points:

 

One, do you really think OMERS would participate in a transaction solely so Fairfax could benefit from it...let alone Prem doing something like that?  OMERS is a public pension manager...their portfolio decisions are heavily scrutinized, regulated and restricted.  

 

Two, are your returns in a non-taxable account?  Otherwise, FFH compounding might have you beat after capital gains taxes moving from one investment to another.

 

Congratulations on great results!  Cheers!

[Milu]

6 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

Viking has an exceptional handle on Fairfax.  But no investor should rely on someone else's analysis, unless you simply want to remain a passive investor.  The reason being, if you don't do the work like Viking, your conviction level will never be like Viking's.  

 

I don't buy stuff because Prem or Buffett bought it...never have.  I learned my lesson the hard way when I first started 26 years ago by buying a couple of things Seth Klarman bought.  Worse mistakes of my life!  After that, I told myself I would never trust anyone else's analysis...NO ONE!  

 

It's why I didn't give two shits when people weren't buying FFH at $450...or META at $100 and they were telling me Zuck's lost his mind...or LULU because retail is "just too hard" and "based on trends".  

 

Do the work...trust your own analysis...and never, ever get bullied into buying because "you might miss out"!  Cheers!

Yes, and the other issue is that by outsourcing the investment decision to other forum members like Viking or some of the supposed 'gurus' Klarman, Ackman etc is that by basing your buy decision on their analysis, you are now somewhat reliant on them updating you on when they change their mind and sell the position. Hypothetical scenario, let's say Viking for whatever reason decides next year to sell Fairfax, will the people who followed him in now decide to just follow him out. Or maybe he just stops posting on the board for whatever reason, and fairfax goes through a rough patch, when you relied on another person's analysis you may be needing reassurance during the tough times, and if there's no posts to give you that, you may end up rudderless. Like Parsad mentions here, I do my own research, form my own conclusion and never rely on another person's work to get me there. I'm not an island though, forums, 13f's, are good idea generation material, or if I found the idea myself, they can be good sources to validate my own research, but it's risky in my opinion to offload the analysis to a third party no mater how smart, or how great a track record that person has.

[73 Reds]

12 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

Viking has an exceptional handle on Fairfax.  But no investor should rely on someone else's analysis, unless you simply want to remain a passive investor.  The reason being, if you don't do the work like Viking, your conviction level will never be like Viking's.  

 

I don't buy stuff because Prem or Buffett bought it...never have.  I learned my lesson the hard way when I first started 26 years ago by buying a couple of things Seth Klarman bought.  Worse mistakes of my life!  After that, I told myself I would never trust anyone else's analysis...NO ONE!  

 

It's why I didn't give two shits when people weren't buying FFH at $450...or META at $100 and they were telling me Zuck's lost his mind...or LULU because retail is "just too hard" and "based on trends".  

 

Do the work...trust your own analysis...and never, ever get bullied into buying because "you might miss out"!  Cheers!

Of course.  It all comes down to judgment.  Determine what/who is important and what/who is not.  But still waiting for any analysis more compelling and informative than Viking's assessment of Fairfax.  

[SharperDingaan]

7 hours ago, bizaro86 said:

 

I don't own Fairfax. I used to own Fairfax India and sold when they did a value-destroying transaction on the airport with OMERS to crystalize a fee gain. Imo that was untrustworthy and I don't buy compounders where I don't trust management.

 

That hasn't been all bad - my 1,5,10 year returns all beat Fairfax by a significant margin (and the 10 year isn't even close), and 3 year is neck and neck. Mostly by not holding compounders, but instead buying decent quality businesses when they're beaten up and holding for the turn.

 

 

+1. 

 

We used to hold FFH as well, and take a similar approach .... buying quality and holding for the turn(s); CAGRs a lot higher than FFH, but we also have more volatility as we take more risk. Periodically revisit FFH around dividend time 

 

For passive, long term investors, FFH is both a great place to be and learn the craft. But, If/when you opt for a more active approach, you really need to leave the mother ship. Nothing wrong in that, and really just a bow to the masters.

 

SD 

[73 Reds]

2 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said:

 

+1. 

 

We used to hold FFH as well, and take a similar approach .... buying quality and holding for the turn(s); CAGRs a lot higher than FFH, but we also have more volatility as we take more risk. Periodically revisit FFH around dividend time 

 

For passive, long term investors, FFH is both a great place to be and learn the craft. But, If/when you opt for a more active approach, you really need to leave the mother ship. Nothing wrong in that, and really just a bow to the masters.

 

SD 

So...... counting all the activist billionaires on this board.  Anyone?  A CAGR "much higher" than FFH's 18.4% since inception would place you in rare air.  Call me skeptical, LOL.  

[SharperDingaan]

30 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

So...... counting all the activist billionaires on this board.  Anyone?  A CAGR "much higher" than FFH's 18.4% since inception would place you in rare air.  Call me skeptical, LOL.  

 

All that you need is a static 25% holding in something like a CJ warrant, that becomes a 3-4 bagger within 2 yrs. If nothing else happened ... today's $100 becomes $132.5 (25x3.5 +75x1 = 132.5), 2 yr CAGR is 15%. Of course .... if the other 75% in concentrated positions is dong something similar .... that CAGR is a lot higher 

 

SD  

[73 Reds]

14 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said:

 

All that you need is a static 25% holding in something like a CJ warrant, that becomes a 3-4 bagger within 2 yrs. If nothing else happened ... today's $100 becomes $132.5 (25x3.5 +75x1 = 132.5), 2 yr CAGR is 15%. Of course .... if the other 75% in concentrated positions is dong something similar .... that CAGR is a lot higher 

 

SD  

"All that you need"?  Speaking for all us buy-and-hold Schleppers who live on the other side of the tracks, I can't stop laughing.  Thanks for making my day!

[Malmqky]

If you let someone start at the Covid lows, I bet most have crushed 18% over the last 5ish years

 

But yeah, 18% is nothing to scoff off over the long term. I’d be very, very happy with that type of performance over a couple decade timespan.

[Gregmal]

3 minutes ago, Malmqky said:

If you let someone start at the Covid lows, I bet most have crushed 18% over the last 5ish years

 

But yeah, 18% is nothing to scoff off over the long term. I’d be very, very happy with that type of performance over a couple decade timespan.

Yup. We are currently in the "golden age of track records" with folks being able to pickoff start dates coinciding with covid, the 2022 "freak out over conspiracy theory correction" and then the past 2-3 years of AI driven boom....Its a great time for them!

[73 Reds]

9 minutes ago, Malmqky said:

If you let someone start at the Covid lows, I bet most have crushed 18% over the last 5ish years

 

But yeah, 18% is nothing to scoff off over the long term. I’d be very, very happy with that type of performance over a couple decade timespan.

Well, Buffett is just shy of 20% and he is only the greatest investor of all time.   

[John Hjorth]

Just to express it here, because I have seen it touched here in this topic, above : I expect to open a topic on 30^th December 2025, for 2025 similar to this one for 2024.

[Malmqky]

2 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

Well, Buffett is just shy of 20% and he is only the greatest investor of all time.   

Yep, for 50 years too. Rarified air indeed.

[SharperDingaan]

6 hours ago, 73 Reds said:

"All that you need"?  Speaking for all us buy-and-hold Schleppers who live on the other side of the tracks, I can't stop laughing.  Thanks for making my day!

 

Looks much better than it actually is, as there is a need to continually take gains off the table (remain ahead and alive if/when we blow up), and that big down year can really wreck your short term CAGR  Lifetime to date CAGR is finally on par with that of FFH; but our rolling 10yr CAGR is much higher, as we are comfortable with higher risk, and do not have public shareholders.  

 

Still schlepping .... but we do enjoy rough-housing in an 'old school' market!

 

SD 

Edited December 23, 2025 by SharperDingaan

[DooDiligence]

I cleared the decks starting in 2024 and largely wound up concentrated in six positions by April of 2025. Added heavily to Novo Nordisk in 2025 and repurchased some BRK.B that I'd sold in non-taxable as it dropped below $500. Return for 2025 has been a meagre 6ish% largely due to NVO & the recent drops in Nintendo. I don't care. Plenty of un-investible cash for 3-5 years of living + travel expenses (ridicule the cash drag if you like but I sleep like a baby). I'm terrible at trading and am sticking with these six names for the long haul.

 

BRK.B 13.3%

DPZ 8.2%

EW 15.6%

GOOGL 12%

NTDOY 20.8%

NVO 24.3%

 

Investible cash 5.8%

 

Weightings based on today's market.

 

I screwed around and started shorting GOOGL OTM calls (1 or 2 week durations) and was getting to keep the premiums until this month when I got assigned on 25% of my shares. Still made more than a triple but kinda regret screwing around because Google is going to be a freaking monster over the next decade.

[bizaro86]

8 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

As you might have read, I'm not a proponent of someone buying Fairfax or Berkshire, just because they are Fairfax and Berkshire.  But I have to disagree with you on two points:

 

One, do you really think OMERS would participate in a transaction solely so Fairfax could benefit from it...let alone Prem doing something like that?  OMERS is a public pension manager...their portfolio decisions are heavily scrutinized, regulated and restricted.  

 

Two, are your returns in a non-taxable account?  Otherwise, FFH compounding might have you beat after capital gains taxes moving from one investment to another.

 

Congratulations on great results!  Cheers!

 

OMERS made a great deal - their return was essentially guaranteed at an acceptable minimum. That's the part that made the deal unfair for Fairfax India shareholders. Basically I think OMERS got a sweet deal and Fairfax gave it to them so they could get the mark on the asset to earn the fees.

 

But that's just my opinion, and obviously I can't prove what they were thinking when they entered into the transaction.

 

I should note that I'm not saying Prem/Fairfax is untrustworthy or that anyone else shouldn't invest in it.

 

My statement was personal and only applied to myself. I don't trust them, so I wouldn't be able to hold through a downdraft so I shouldn't buy it. I really believe a huge part of investing success comes down to knowing yourself and what will work for you. There are many paths to acceptable returns, everything from net-nets to Dealraker's "hold forever" will work if you can execute it. But the hard part, imo, is sticking with something when it moves against you.

 

Anyway, you're correct that I pay more taxes than someone who does buy and hold (I'm more than maxed out on registered accounts). But one thing I think is underutilized in Canada is the donation of appreciated securities. 

 

And I really am trying to move toward a more quality/buy and hold portfolio. I would have kept MEG for a long time except they got bought out.

Edited December 23, 2025 by bizaro86

[DooDiligence]

As to why I don't own Fairfax, well I did at around the $500's and sold for a small gain because I didn't really understand the business and was too lazy to read Viking's work. I chose to continue with BRK as my semi-conglomerate / ETF holding. Now I find myself anchored to a significantly lower price for Fairfax. I write this as a lesson to others on being too lazy to read the writings of proven intelligence on here.

[Hektor]

32 minutes ago, bizaro86 said:

Fairfax gave it to them so they could get the mark on the asset to earn the fees.

I speculate that Anchorage was created and OMERS brought in to fend off any unsolicited interest in BIAL. If memory serves, Prem and other made some strong statements around this time that BIAL is not for sale.

[Red Lion]

39 minutes ago, DooDiligence said:

As to why I don't own Fairfax, well I did at around the $500's and sold for a small gain because I didn't really understand the business and was too lazy to read Viking's work. I chose to continue with BRK as my semi-conglomerate / ETF holding. Now I find myself anchored to a significantly lower price for Fairfax. I write this as a lesson to others on being too lazy to read the writings of proven intelligence on here.

 

This is my natural playbook for multi baggers. Buy them cheap, pick up my chips after I'm up 50-100%, and then never buy back in because I'm anchored to my low price. I've been trying to overcome this habit since it's been the #1 detractor from my long term performance. I think all of my biggest mistakes have been selling out of companies like AAPL/META after getting a nice swing trade. 

[Marco Van Basten]

33 minutes ago, Red Lion said:

 

This is my natural playbook for multi baggers. Buy them cheap, pick up my chips after I'm up 50-100%, and then never buy back in because I'm anchored to my low price. I've been trying to overcome this habit since it's been the #1 detractor from my long term performance. I think all of my biggest mistakes have been selling out of companies like AAPL/META after getting a nice swing trade. 

You have to change even though it is very hard.  My best investment happened after I owned a "turnaround" for 3 years, saw that the progress was going as I expected, and doubled my position paying 60% more than my first lot.  

[SharperDingaan]

5 hours ago, bizaro86 said:

Anyway, you're correct that I pay more taxes than someone who does buy and hold (I'm more than maxed out on registered accounts). But one thing I think is underutilized in Canada is the donation of appreciated securities. 

 

Long time ago, when doing tax for my CPA, a favourite application was the minimisation of capital gains tax by very aggressively selling everything that would generate a tax loss seven weeks before year-end, so that it could be bought back >21 business days later, and in the last 3 weeks of trading before year end. It meant that you had the maximum tax loss carry forward every year, and that Revenue Canada would refund you, if you were doing WEB's 'buy and hold' forever. You can still do this today, along with the Smith Manoeuvre, and it will save you a fortune      

 

Needless to say, the instructor was a big-4 tax partner, and took an exceedingly dim view ... when I came in at the top of his class. Ultimately, the bastard refused to hire me for a tax internship, but we remained friends for years; learnt advanced o/g futures and derivatives from one of his people at a strip club. 

 

SD

[bizaro86]

40 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said:

 

Long time ago, when doing tax for my CPA, a favourite application was the minimisation of capital gains tax by very aggressively selling everything that would generate a tax loss seven weeks before year-end, so that it could be bought back >21 business days later, and in the last 3 weeks of trading before year end. It meant that you had the maximum tax loss carry forward every year, and that Revenue Canada would refund you, if you were doing WEB's 'buy and hold' forever. You can still do this today, along with the Smith Manoeuvre, and it will save you a fortune      

 

Needless to say, the instructor was a big-4 tax partner, and took an exceedingly dim view ... when I came in at the top of his class. Ultimately, the bastard refused to hire me for a tax internship, but we remained friends for years; learnt advanced o/g futures and derivatives from one of his people at a strip club. 

 

SD

 

Smith Manouevre is also way under utilized. I did it in the past (took me a few years to get mortgage on my residence 100% tax deductible). But that's been paid off for awhile now, and since I sold all my rentals the only debt is the odd bit of margin if there happens to be a fat pitch. I keep the heloc on my home just in case its ever raining gold.

Edited December 23, 2025 by bizaro86

[LC]

3 hours ago, SharperDingaan said:

learnt advanced o/g futures and derivatives from one of his people at a strip club. 

 

You've got the best stories, lol! 

[DooDiligence]

9 hours ago, Red Lion said:

 

This is my natural playbook for multi baggers. Buy them cheap, pick up my chips after I'm up 50-100%, and then never buy back in because I'm anchored to my low price. I've been trying to overcome this habit since it's been the #1 detractor from my long term performance. I think all of my biggest mistakes have been selling out of companies like AAPL/META after getting a nice swing trade. 

 

It's really hard to ignore the run ups. Fear of retracing bothers me more with some issues than others. For instance, I couldn't care less watching Nintendo retrace (high conviction), but a double on Novo Nordisk would tempt me to trim a bit (gun shy). There's so many factors that can influence an early sale. I'm working hard to develop an ownership mindset.

 

Anchoring is hard to break, but I actually have managed to do it. The cost basis in my first NVO purchases was $12ish (from 2016) and I bought more from $80 on down to the high $40's over the past year. Similar with Edwards Lifesciences (first purchase in 2012) and even the venerable Berkshire. I had trimmed a bit on all three of these before repurchasing. A big difference between these and Fairfax was simply not being familiar enough to be comfortable holding, selling and then paying more, and the relatively quick runup was also definitely a factor.

Edited December 24, 2025 by DooDiligence