Dynastic European Companies

[Cod Liver Oil]

Bollore, Arnault, Pinault, Agnelli, Maubert, Hermes. We own  a few:  Exor, Bollore and Odet. Fascinating special situations. @jeyfox and East 72 Dynasty Trust know a ton about them. I could see making a 10 or 20% allocation to these types of semi-private family office type investments. I thought a thread might be worthwhile; I could see making Exor large at some point.  Potential squeeze outs or oligarchic behavior at Dior or Bollore probably cap sizing. I’m thinking lots of permanent skin in the game encourages long term thinking and reduces risk of submarining.  Can also result in total disregard for minority owners like at Swatch. Does anyone have these in large size? 

Edited August 13, 2025 by Cod Liver Oil

[Marco Van Basten]

5 hours ago, Cod Liver Oil said:

Bollore, Arnault, Pinault, Agnelli, Maubert, Hermes. We own  a few:  Exor, Bollore and Odet. Fascinating special situations. @jeyfox and East 72 Dynasty Trust know a ton about them. I could see making a 10 or 20% allocation to these types of semi-private family office type investments. I thought a thread might be worthwhile; I could see making Exor large at some point.  Potential squeeze outs or oligarchic behavior at Dior or Bollore probably cap sizing. I’m thinking lots of permanent skin in the game encourages long term thinking and reduces risk of submarining.  Can also result in total disregard for minority owners like at Swatch. Does anyone have these in large size? 

So, Maubert family showed it could not care less about what minority shareholders wanted - two strategics tried to buy it and instead of an auction, they said no!  However, I used to own it back in 2017-2019 if I recall correctly, and again bought here.  At 16x 2026 EPS, for inflation + 2% top line growth, with possible margin expansion, Robertet looks appealing.  

[John Hjorth]

19 hours ago, Cod Liver Oil said:

... reduces risk of submarining. ... 

 

lol! So far, for me, not seen before! Provided a good laughter as a great start on my day!

 

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Edit :

 

Personally, I would add the following, with focus on the dynastic dimension of all things :

 

Investor AB, Sweden [We have a separate topic for it here on CofB&F.],

L. E. Lundbergforetagen AB, Sweden [no topic by now here.], and, in brackets

(Industrivärden AB, Sweden, basically controlledby  L. E. Lundbergforetagen AB)

 

L.E. Lundbergforetagen AB lives it own separate and silent life, pretty much withdrawn from the lime light, totally overshadowed by Investor AB. The power sphere of eldest generation at Lundbergföretagen Fredrik Lundberg is at least as interesting as that of the three gentlemen running and directing the total show in the Wallenberg sphere.

 

He [Fredric Lundberg] lives private north of Stockholm at wonderfull spot an small hill just near the Swedish Skærgård, vith a great view to the water. The story tells that when the seller would shake hands with him and hand over the keys to the place, he ignored the gesture, refusing by lack of any physical reponse, just staring the seller in eyes, saying : 'Keys, what shall I with the keyes?! I don't need any keys! I'm gonna rake it down immediately!', basically insulting the seller for which sh*thole he has been living in, that he just closed sale with the seller upon. Certainly not good enough for Mr. Lundberg.

 

Both those spheres are real galaxies like Jey Fox [ @jeyfox ] likes to call [ ] the Odet-Bolleré unspeakable almost uncomprendable spiders web. I still remember first time I took a stab at it, and it goes like this : You grab a specific company, hell bent to crack the structure [], and after lots of work and mental gymnastics  you finally realize that you have been pulling hard in your own butt. Next, so what to do? : Naturally you pick an other specific company, and the things happens all over for you again! At this stage most give up and let it go. Only the most stubborn and enduring people manages in one way or another to carry on from there.

 

It's a never ending story to really dive in to both Investor AB and Lundbergforetagen AB with no end in sight, if one really digs in.

Edited August 14, 2025 by John Hjorth

[Cod Liver Oil]

I love these stories. Bought more Bollore today. Robertet is very cool but you need a microscope to buy it.  JOE has a dynastic flavor without the control issues. 

[John Hjorth]

The fact is this type of companies mostly are not very transactional, so it's some really boring stuff that perhaps the most significant risk is one falls asleep and drops the forehead on the sale button on the keyboard *klonk* and there you suddenly wake up and look up to what has happened, quickly realizing that what happened actually released a large tax bill, while one is bursting a resounding scream created in your reptile brain : 'Ohh No!!', then that's the bang for the bucks there! No rock 'n roll there either!

 

To various degree several of those French names are transactional to some and various degree, and Exor is certainly transactional as well as opportunistic in my opinion. When one see what John Elkann has done with Exor over time, simply by starting reading all his shareholders from one end to the other in one big swoop, then one realizes it's not only amazing, but also very impressive what he built up on the basis of something totally diffrent, all over a relatively short row of years.

 

And that's the wonderful but a bit strange fact, that if one looks around, there almost always exists something that may fit each personal preferences, style and temper among such stuff.

 

Some times as old as Methuselah, exciting story, great history, long lens, some family members with a lot of skin in the game, involved in exetuting with consistence and persistence for the long haul, perhaps even also a vision! Not an 'external' CEO picked at another listed company with an obsene compensation yelling to the employeés 'wagons west!, and the board reaonable fast finds out that 'wagons west', doesn't work, then they parachute the CEO out and immedially hires another CEO on even better terms and willing to yell 'wagons east!'.

 

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Edit :

 

Here are a few shots of Lundbergs modest cottage, north of Stockholm, in an area called Djurholm :

 

 

Then a 180^o turn at position in shot #2 to create a sense of the view from earth surface level, then imagine how it is from the top of the hill:

 

Edited August 15, 2025 by John Hjorth

[Cod Liver Oil]

I like what Elkann is doing at Exor, slowly and opportunistically improving the asset mix. I think his head is screwed on sufficiently. Both this and Bollore, where things are developing nicely, are selling at about half NAV and like Dutch tenders. 

Edited August 14, 2025 by Cod Liver Oil

[Marco Van Basten]

6 hours ago, Cod Liver Oil said:

I like what Elkann is doing at Exor, slowly and opportunistically improving the asset mix. I think his head is screwed on sufficiently. Both this and Bollore, where things are developing nicely, are selling at about half NAV and like Dutch tenders. 

There is only problem with Bollore.  In my uninformed opinion, instead of thinking all day how to maximize NAV, Vinny is thinking of how to underpay minority shareholders.  

[Cod Liver Oil]

Yes, Marco, Bollore is spending a lot of time cramming minorities as he unwinds his pulleys. Character matters in these situations and VB has high elbows and enjoys his litigation. He probably bribed a bunch of people to set up the African ports. But he has created a lot of  shareholder value over the long term and the stock is cheap. Bollore reminds me of Dolan; we will probably make money with him despite all the antics because the assets are excellent and the stocks are cheap. Returns will be lumpy!!!!

Edited August 15, 2025 by Cod Liver Oil

[John Hjorth]

I have simply come to love this quite new topic started by @Cod Liver Oil, there is so much to think about and to discuss, and this topic as such, to me personally,  is inspiring, in that particular way, that is has already triggered thoughts and more specific considerations inside my head, that has never been there before. 

[John Hjorth]

@Dalal.Holdings,

 

Are you even informed and aware, and thereby have thought about the behavior you just practiced in this topic, implies and causes for other CofB&F members, with 'the Corner' set up like I personally have, by posting something, and then quickly deleting your post after that?:

 

Below I'll show you : 

 

 

 

 

To me personally, it's e-mail spamming.

 

The fact that you deleted it immedially, if not proves, then at least supports it is so. So to me, you have been practicing CofB&F bad form here, I still suppose unintentional. 'The Corner' is - at least partly, working as chess board by the rules of Chess : Don't let go of your fingers on a Chess piece at a move, untill your decision is really final.

 

Feature 'Edit' naturally always still works, feature 'Delete' too, but not perfectly.

Edited August 15, 2025 by John Hjorth

[Dalal.Holdings]

1 hour ago, John Hjorth said:

@Dalal.Holdings,

 

Are you even informed and aware, and thereby have thought about the behavior you just practiced in this topic, implies and causes for other CofB&F members, with 'the Corner' set up like I personally have, by posting something, and then quickly deleting your post after that?:

 

Below I'll show you : 

 

 

 

 

To me personally, it's e-mail spamming.

 

The fact that you deleted it immedially, if not proves, then at least supports it is so. So to me, you have been practicing CofB&F bad form here, I still suppose unintentional. 'The Corner' is - at least partly, working as chess board by the rules of Chess : Don't let go of your fingers on a Chess piece at a move, untill your decision is really final.

 

Feature 'Edit' naturally always still works, feature 'Delete' too, but not perfectly.

 

I had no idea people got e-mails/notifications as soon as a post goes up. I thought I would refrain from antagonizing the people who want to put their money with the likes of Bollore and deleted my post after I shortly put it up. But if you want to resurrect my post, so be it.

 

And yes, I meant my point: the biggest problem with these (aside from being screwed as a minority holder) is Opportunity Cost.

 

Just look at what the S&P and other indices have done over the 10 years that BOL.PA and ODET.PA have done virtually nothing

 

I have the same problem with many SOTP investments like land banks, etc.

 

Edited August 15, 2025 by Dalal.Holdings

[Cod Liver Oil]

I don't mind a little opportunity cost now and then. I think of Bollore as a cash substitute. It may be largely de-risked as it has a ton of net cash rn. VB is doing the right things but none of it has shown in the share price yet. Reasonably liquid, unlike Odet (or Robertet).  Obviously Exor, Investor and Dior are different animals. I am sure these companies look more exotic  to American investors than European ones like @John Hjorth or @jeyfox. I think @Spekulatius and @Marco Van Basten have European roots.

Edited August 15, 2025 by Cod Liver Oil

[Dalal.Holdings]

Cash pays over 4% in the USA now. Does BOL.PA do that? S&P delivered 256% over 10 years. BOL.PA basically nothing. You also have to pay a 0.4% tax to the French authorities whenever you trade it.

 

I had a stake in VIV.PA not too long ago that I exited too early.

 

Funny to see French regulatooors tighten the screws, but I bet it'll just be a protracted court fight and more waiting for VIV.PA holders.

 

I have no idea how to handicap the European regulatory apparatus. I also have no idea what uber wealthy Europeans will do and whether I'll ever see value in reasonable time frame.

 

Edited August 15, 2025 by Dalal.Holdings

[John Hjorth]

Thank you, @Dalal.Holdings,

 

That's actually to me not just a fair game supplementary comment, but also one, that I personally certainly can relate to, to me as a fact.

 

So, peace again.

 

And I'm personally by now totally out of the Bolloré Galaxy, after selling a quite small BOL.PA position, almost tracker position, not so long ago, alone for reason I needed some cash from a taxable account to transfer and inject into a tax deferred account - in retirement - so I'm basically, exstingushing any income tax withheld on my public pension income, therebyby deferring it.

 

Why? The deduction in my taxable income by doing so is not 100 per cent, it's actually 120%, because Danish seniors are by such tax rule presented with a rule five years before the agelimit  of public retirement, creating an incentive for saving! - And the 187 idiots elected to the Danish parlament had forgotten to put an by age expiry date to that!, so why just not continue into retirement if you a have the means to do so?

 

And while reinstesting those those funds into tax deferred, they diden't end in up being reinvested the Bolloré Galaxy.

 

And I actually think, I was the original topic starter here on CofB&F for ODET.PA.  *shrug*

 

I think what I'm actually weaving about here is, [at least] in most cases, NAV analysis as part of SOTP valuation for stuff like this doesen't, or may,  eventually, and thereby actually and eventually not work. The only thing that always work, is cash flow generation present, actual, observable, identifiable, combined with intelligent capital allocation.

 

NAV SOTP analysis to me just sux, as a mean and basis to get forward, at least it's not in any way water tight, or the sure path to investment success.

Edited August 15, 2025 by John Hjorth

[Cod Liver Oil]

I like asymmetric bets. You can own some things that have the EKG of a stone for a few years if other parts of your portfolio are great operating businesses (subject to different kinds of risks). For instance, Alphabet is printing cash monies and pisses excellence  but may be subject to multiple compression if cloud stalls, search is obsoleted or Waymo fails. UMG  is a nice growing business buried within Bollore. Maybe Bollore has a 3:1  upside:downside asymmetry. Joe may be 4:1 over a few years.  I don't mind some lottery tickets scattered within a portfolio;  some things will underperform.  Sizing is an impossible art.

 

I also expect Odet and Bollore to be collapsed at some point. 

Edited August 17, 2025 by Cod Liver Oil

[John Hjorth]

4 minutes ago, Cod Liver Oil said:

... You can own some things that have the EKG of a stone for a few years ...

 

What?  - After thinking carefully about it, I can't top that, -I've considered bp and pulse measurements, check of breath, mouth-to-mouth ER massage, salt-water drop, awakening injections of steriods, cortison, adrenal cortex hormone, eventually combined with the application of an AES to get the stone going again, MR-scans, CT-scans, eventually just drowning the stone, to see if any reaction at all. [likely, in that case, water best, some fluid acid not even the second best idea].

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

I remember a post a few years ago, somebody asked @Xerxes [I'm sure it was @Xerxes], Q: 'Why did you buy that?'. @Xerxes' A: 'I need it for for investment style diversification purposes'. Personally, it hit me like getting hit by a hammer. To not totally freeze, exposure towards 'different stuff' is somehow needed, to avoid [escape] a 'freeze', that  actually represents 'a style concentration'.

 

That certainly makes sense, at least to me, personally.

[Spekulatius]

The fact that Bollore and ODET  have underperformed the underlying business is what makes it interesting at this conjecture. I will also note that the minor building blocks of the Breton Pulley like Tramways de Rouen or Cambodge who are approaching the end game have done quite well.

 

The entity used to be cash starved (that’s why the structure existed in the first place) but now that the structure  is greatly simplified already and the mothership is cash rich from the logistic sales, one can the that pretty soon, much of the Breton pulley structure will be gone and Bollore more and more resembles a simple Holdco. I think Odet and Bollore will be collapsed into one as well.

 

I think Mr Market sometimes sleeps on slow motion stories like Bollore where the stock trades like same old while the structure and the business itself has changed dramatically.

[Marco Van Basten]

55 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

The fact that Bollore and ODET  have underperformed the underlying business is what makes it interesting at this conjecture. I will also note that the minor building blocks of the Breton Pulley like Tramways de Rouen or Cambodge who are approaching the end game have done quite well.

 

The entity used to be cash starved (that’s why the structure existed in the first place) but now that the structure  is greatly simplified already and the mothership is cash rich from the logistic sales, one can the that pretty soon, much of the Breton pulley structure will be gone and Bollore more and more resembles a simple Holdco. I think Odet and Bollore will be collapsed into one as well.

 

I think Mr Market sometimes sleeps on slow motion stories like Bollore where the stock trades like same old while the structure and the business itself has changed dramatically.

Agree, but I think it is a PFIC

[Rainier]

On 8/16/2025 at 12:28 AM, Marco Van Basten said:

Agree, but I think it is a PFIC

I just err on the side of caution and only buy stuff like this in tax advantaged accounts.

[Spekulatius]

Oder is more likely a PFIC than Bollore. So far. Bollore is one of the cases where you got minimum return for maximum effort and brain damage. Future returns are likely better but not everyone like to sit on stocks for ~5 year with nothing to show for. That’s the real risk here.

 

I think Odet will be squeezed out next due to minimal float and that might be the one to buy at least in tax deferred accounts. 

Edited August 18, 2025 by Spekulatius

[Dalal.Holdings]

Spitballing:

 

Some folks estimate BOL.PA trades at about 1/3 NAV. If we get appreciation to 1x NAV, that's a 200% return. Vincent Bolloré is 73 years young. Males at that age are expected to live another ~12 years (though I bet billionaires have a higher expectation). So maybe one should not expect closure until estate planning goes into effect (but might that even not yield closure?)

 

The problem is the S&P has outdone that over a 12 year period. So even if you get 1x NAV in 12 years (~9.6% CAGR), you might still underperform. And are we 100% sure we'll get closure within 12 years?

 

The other important question: at what rate can we expect NAV to grow at? For BOL.PA that seems to depend almost entirely on UMG and the cash pile as these two represent ~80% of NAV. If the cash is used to retire stock, NAV/share grows. If spent on bad acquisitions, maybe not. If UMG continues to dominate & reap from streaming, then yes. If UMG displaced by AI bots making music then no. Some stuff to ponder.

 

Edited August 18, 2025 by Dalal.Holdings

[Spekulatius]

On 8/18/2025 at 8:47 AM, Dalal.Holdings said:

The problem is the S&P has outdone that over a 12 year period. So even if you get 1x NAV in 12 years (~9.6% CAGR), you might still underperform. And are we 100% sure we'll get closure within 12 years?

I have a hard time seeing the S&P 500 doing 9.6% for the next 12 years from current levels, but that could just be me. I think it’s likely that Bollore will increase their NAV at decent Clip too. For one thing UMG is their largest Holding and it’s a pretty good business. I also think they have an obvious way to use buybacks and squeeze outs (ODET etc) to increase NAV with their current cash hoard. Squeeze outs in cash deferred accounts are not problem, because even with a small premium because  you can always purchase the remaining vehicle holding essentially the same assets (Bollore).

Edited August 19, 2025 by Spekulatius

[jouni1]

I’m not as sure as some that an investment is going to do poorly just because it underperformed s&p 500 in the past 10 years. If it was that easy, we wouldn’t need this forum. 

Edited August 19, 2025 by jouni1

[Dalal.Holdings]

6 hours ago, jouni1 said:

I’m not as sure as some that an investment is going to do poorly just because it underperformed s&p 500 in the past 10 years. If it was that easy, we wouldn’t need this forum. 

 

The point is something called opportunity cost. Something people who just buy stocks like this or land banks that do nothing for years and years don't really understand.

 

Maybe there's closure in 12 years. Or maybe the younger Bollore just continues what his father does and there is no closure for much much longer.

 

What is the impetus for them to resolve anything at the BOL.PA/ODET.PA level? What are the motivating factors for them to do this? I'd love to hear them

[Cod Liver Oil]

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/yet-another-value-podcast/id1526149547?i=1000669715874
 

@Dalal.Holdings here is some history on Bollore. VB referred to as a “compounding bro.”

Edited August 20, 2025 by Cod Liver Oil