How much are you down since the inauguration?

[modiva]

+6% YTD.  FRFHF & FFXDF (50%), Cash (28%), Gold (7%), Bitcoin (4%), remaining 11% in 4 equities. 

[Gregmal]

I have a hard enough time keeping up with yearly stuff cuz I find it relatively pointless. Worrying about random multi week or month stretches is beyond idiotic if you’re trying to invest though. 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

-3.4% YTD 

 

Largest risk-on positions are Fairfax India, Exor, Fairfax Financial, Altius Minerals, Alibaba, Tencent, and Bitcoin. Have a healthy slug of 30-40% to bond funds too  which is helping as all of those accounts are still positive YTD. 

 

Most of this negative performance actually occurred on Friday when Int'l markets got hit hard too and names like BABA and Fairfax that had been resilient YTD went down 7-10% themselves. I was slightly positive YTD before then. 

Edited April 5, 2025 by TwoCitiesCapital

[james22]

+2%

 

Don't know if I quite believe bitcoin is decoupling yet, but I'd sure like to.

[Gregmal]

Well “just cuz” this whole thread is just another pointless example of trying to insert more politics as gotchas…

 

 

[John Hjorth]

The answer to the question : 'How much are you down since the inauguration?' doesen't matter to me, to you or to anyone else.

[Gregmal]

9 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

The answer to the question : 'How much are you down since the inauguration?' doesen't matter to me, to you or to anyone else.

+5000

 

Folks need to focus more on things that matter!

[TwoCitiesCapital]

You know - for a topic that is of zero interest to you - y'all are spending too much time posting in it. 

[Sweet]

Lol, yeh.  People are reading their own feelings in the tea leaves of this thread.

[Gregmal]

Damn, where am I gonna get “all this time” back? 48 seconds I’ll never recover! Shit now it’s like 56 seconds!

[thepupil]

14 hours ago, Gregmal said:

Well “just cuz” this whole thread is just another pointless example of trying to insert more politics as gotchas…

 

 

thought you were an IBKR guy? Did you get Fido to match their margin rates? 

[John Hjorth]

Oh, come on!,

 

I personally think this topic has its own noble raison d'être.

 

I mean :

 

All when you're busy calculating how much down you are since inauguration, one aren't focused on panick selling, and when you eventually finish your calculations and are ready to post in this topic, then the market is further down, and one starts from the beginning of the excersise on the whole thing, all over again! - It works great.

[Gregmal]

28 minutes ago, thepupil said:

thought you were an IBKR guy? Did you get Fido to match their margin rates? 

Over the years I’ve ended up moving most of my stuff to Fido. I like their platform wayyyy better than IBKR, they will work with you on the margin, and in general everything including customer service is awesome. 
 

What’s left in IBKR is mainly low beta boring shit like bonds or international stocks that’s of course highly levered. Cuz otherwise what’s the point lol

 

Damn, now 85 seconds of my life on this pointless thread!

[Paarslaars]

49 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

Oh, come on!,

 

I personally think this topic has its own noble raison d'être.

 

I mean :

 

All when you're busy calculating how much down you are since inauguration, one aren't focused on panick selling, and when you eventually finish your calculations and are ready to post in this topic, then the market is further down, and one starts from the beginning of the excersise on the whole thing, all over again! - It works great.

I think the main reason for this thread is to see others having the same experience. Misery loves company, I know it's cruel but it makes me feel better knowing other smarter people are feeling it too.

[Malmqky]

Was up like 9% until Thurs/Fri
 

[Sweet]

2 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

Oh, come on!,

 

I personally think this topic has its own noble raison d'être.

 

I mean :

 

All when you're busy calculating how much down you are since inauguration, one aren't focused on panick selling, and when you eventually finish your calculations and are ready to post in this topic, then the market is further down, and one starts from the beginning of the excersise on the whole thing, all over again! - It works great.

lol it’s a cunning plan

[This2ShallPass]

YTD -3%. Up 5% before these last two days.

 

This thread is impressive to see the overall results from everyone. I do feel once in a while sharing results is helpful, just to see how others are doing and give you some kick in the ass (if needed). 

[thepupil]

am down today and lost about 900 bps of YTD outperformance in a few hours...at least i can market my returns as uncorrelated 

Edited April 9, 2025 by thepupil

[Sweet]

2 hours ago, thepupil said:

am down today and lost about 900 bps of YTD outperformance in a few hours...at least i can market my returns as uncorrelated 

Were you hedged?  Is that why you are down today.  

Edited April 9, 2025 by Sweet

[thepupil]

59 minutes ago, Sweet said:

Were you hedged?  Is that why you are down today.  

My top 3 longs (BKUTK, NEN, TFG) were down (now they hadn’t gone down yet until today and one traded 2 shares and TFG will open up tommorow hopefully) . And had a couple hundred bps of - hedge pnl.
 

To be fair, I only focus on my IBKR accounts. if I include fidelity, I’m flat. If I include 401k that’s indices, up a smidge and I have a small trust (1/3 ish of  total portfolio) outside control that’s all indices that went up I’m sure (all of which is taken into account in terms of how much hedges)

 

I think in actuality I probably made a fair bit of money today but I tend to focus on one account where all

my activity is for short term stuff and the. Tend to focus on stuff I control for LT performance.

Edited April 9, 2025 by thepupil

[Sweet]

4 minutes ago, thepupil said:

My top 3 longs (BKUTK, NEN, TFG) were down (now they hadn’t gone down yet until today and one traded 2 shares and TFG will open up tommorow hopefully) . And had a couple hundred bps of hedge only.
 

To be fair, I only focus on my IBKR accounts. if I include fidelity, I’m flat. If I include 401k that’s indices, up a smidge and I have a small trust (1/3 ish of  totportfolio) outside control that’s all indices that went up I’m sure (all of which is taken into account in terms of how much hedges)

 

I think in actuality I probably made a fair bit of money today but I tend to focus on one account where all

my activity is for short term stuff and the. Tend to focus on stuff I control for LT performance.

Lol, yeh you may be too focused on your  accounts you are wheeling and dealing in.  That’s good, hope you are up.

[This2ShallPass]

11 hours ago, thepupil said:

am down today and lost about 900 bps of YTD outperformance in a few hours...at least i can market my returns as uncorrelated 

Wow, that's some serious uncorrelation..you definitely have the balls (and brains) to go against the grain! Not kidding, you can seriously market that. There might be a fairly large pool of folks who would pay up to avoid the batshit crazy 2 weeks we are having..

[Sweet]

On 4/6/2025 at 6:16 PM, Paarslaars said:

I think the main reason for this thread is to see others having the same experience. Misery loves company, I know it's cruel but it makes me feel better knowing other smarter people are feeling it too.

 

Lol, yep.

 

On 4/6/2025 at 5:36 PM, Gregmal said:

Over the years I’ve ended up moving most of my stuff to Fido. I like their platform wayyyy better than IBKR, they will work with you on the margin, and in general everything including customer service is awesome. 
 

What’s left in IBKR is mainly low beta boring shit like bonds or international stocks that’s of course highly levered. Cuz otherwise what’s the point lol

 

Damn, now 85 seconds of my life on this pointless thread!

 

Braver than me.  What kind of leverage are you running, and what checks do you have to ensure you never get into too much trouble?  I don't use any leverage, and sometimes I wish I would.

 

[Gregmal]

1 hour ago, Sweet said:

Braver than me.  What kind of leverage are you running, and what checks do you have to ensure you never get into too much trouble?  I don't use any leverage, and sometimes I wish I would.

Generally 20-30%. Just kinda gut feel it but I have a decent amount of stuff that IMO is pretty easy to have a confident drawdown floor with, which helps me factor in what kind of margin or structure I need to have. Some like MSGS, FRPH, ALCO, etc from certain valuation just don’t have much risk of downside the way other stocks do. Bonds are similar. If you have a $1000 in bonds, can you be long $200 in stock against it? I ve been doing it for a long time and also incorporated into that is some hedging stuff, generally with options, which work in your favor as well. People are correct, how you structure leverage is critical. My definition of structure is a little different but it accomplishes the same thing. You can also worst case, ACAT around individual positions if you’re getting closer to the magic number. 

[Sweet]

2 hours ago, Gregmal said:

Generally 20-30%. Just kinda gut feel it but I have a decent amount of stuff that IMO is pretty easy to have a confident drawdown floor with, which helps me factor in what kind of margin or structure I need to have. Some like MSGS, FRPH, ALCO, etc from certain valuation just don’t have much risk of downside the way other stocks do. Bonds are similar. If you have a $1000 in bonds, can you be long $200 in stock against it? I ve been doing it for a long time and also incorporated into that is some hedging stuff, generally with options, which work in your favor as well. People are correct, how you structure leverage is critical. My definition of structure is a little different but it accomplishes the same thing. You can also worst case, ACAT around individual positions if you’re getting closer to the magic number. 

Thanks for the reply.  Seems you based it on worst case scenario, and leverage from there.  Is it harder to maintain leverage now rates are up?