US franchises at risk ?

[kab60]

Trying to stay on course, Bloomberg had an interesting article on Canadians buying Canadian. I think the same thing is happening in Europe to a lesser degree.

 

Tesla is the most obvious 'franchise' at risk. A lot of my neighbors in Denmark drive Tesla. I don't think anyone would buy one today given Elon. I wonder if this is what finally breaks Teslas share price. It seems to me like he's alienating his very customer base while appealing to a lot of folks who probably prefer their gas guzzlers. At the same time, there are finally plenty of good EV alternatives.

 

Something like Starbucks at 40x earnings and -4% SSS could be at risk as well - there are good coffee alternatives most places in the world today. It's an iconic American brand which would be easy to boycott in Canada and Europe. And then you might have increased consumer weakness in the US if tariffs increases inflation and DOGE leads to meaningful layoffs.

Edited Friday at 11:54 AM by kab60

[dealraker]

5 hours ago, kab60 said:

Trying to stay on course, Bloomberg had an interesting article on Canadians buying Canadian. I think the same thing is happening in Europe to a lesser degree.

 

Tesla is the most obvious 'franchise' as risk. A lot of my neighbours in Denmark drive Tesla. I don't think anyone would buy one today given Elon. I wonder if this is what finally breaks Teslas' share price. It seems to me like he's alienating his very customer base while appealing to a lot of folks who probably prefer their gas guzzlers. At the same time, there are finally plenty of good alternatives.

 

Something like Starbucks at 40x earnings and -4% SSS could be at risk as well - there are good coffee alternatives most places in the world today. It's iconic American brand which would be easy to boycott in Canada and Europe. And then you might have increased consumer weakness in the US if tariffs increases inflation and DOGE leads to meaningful layoffs.

So maybe BUD Light in auto!  

[kab60]

19 minutes ago, dealraker said:

So maybe BUD Light in auto!  

BUD wouldn't be a bad idea if not because the stock looks pretty cheap as is, Americans have finally started to NOT boycott it again, and we Europeans don't drink that weak piss anyway.

 

Starbucks CEO is still in his honeymoon period, so perhaps it goes higher still, but it does look like a pretty good consumer short with the added risk/upside of ex-US consumers avoiding it. 

 

Tesla looks like the most obvious 'victim' though. I don't think Germans are rushing in to buy after Elons antics (pretty sure most Germans, and Europeans for that matter, didn't like his 'heiling that wasn't heiling' or whatever it was he did).

[Ulti]

6 hours ago, kab60 said:

Trying to stay on course, Bloomberg had an interesting article on Canadians buying Canadian. I think the same thing is happening in Europe to a lesser degree.

Funny …. I was thinking the same thing when I was reading up on DNUT…the company is in the toilet for a variety of reasons and the CEO is talking about international expansion to grow…easy American target to boycott 

[DooDiligence]

8 hours ago, kab60 said:

Trying to stay on course, Bloomberg had an interesting article on Canadians buying Canadian. I think the same thing is happening in Europe to a lesser degree.

 

Tesla is the most obvious 'franchise' at risk. A lot of my neighbors in Denmark drive Tesla. I don't think anyone would buy one today given Elon. I wonder if this is what finally breaks Teslas share price. It seems to me like he's alienating his very customer base while appealing to a lot of folks who probably prefer their gas guzzlers. At the same time, there are finally plenty of good EV alternatives.

 

Something like Starbucks at 40x earnings and -4% SSS could be at risk as well - there are good coffee alternatives most places in the world today. It's an iconic American brand which would be easy to boycott in Canada and Europe. And then you might have increased consumer weakness in the US if tariffs increases inflation and DOGE leads to meaningful layoffs.

 

I didn't pay a whole lot of attention but the one time I went to Starbucks in Bangkok recently, the place didn't have a whole lot of people in it and it was right on the river near Wat Po and a bunch of other tourist favs.

Edited Friday at 02:39 PM by DooDiligence

[SharperDingaan]

Supposedly tariffs kick in on Tuesday; most would expect Canada to counter with the below tariffs almost immediately.

https://www.canada.ca/en/department-finance/news/2025/02/list-of-products-from-the-united-states-subject-to-25-per-cent-tariffs-effective-february-4-2025.html

 

So far, the major indices are down roughly 5% since Trump was inaugurated, and many of the 'magnificent 7' are now around November lows; the more significant their crypto exposure, the poorer they have done. You can delay a tariff implementation only once; do it twice or more and you just come across as weak ... cannot get your sh1te together.... all big hat, no cattle, etc.

 

Impose tariffs; US Auto shuts down within a month, and there are widespread layoffs throughout the US. Within 6-months there are multiple cancelled capital projects, wide-spread mortgage defaults, material losses at the banks; and scaled back treasury auctions in response to insufficient demand. No amount of 'gas lighting', 'distraction', or 'fairy dust', able to hide the unemployment misery... and the foreign press happily highlighting it.  https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/gaslighting

 

First time out the extorted were fearful of the consequences of NOT complying. Now? it's continue to talk... but the consequence is an immediate bench clearing, punch hard, keep punching, and fight to win; ALL the extorted, ALL at once. Simply 'cause when a US trade signature isn't worth anything, there's nothing to lose.

 

We live in Interesting times.

 

SD

 

 

 

 

 

Edited Friday at 11:32 PM by SharperDingaan

[John Hjorth]

SD [ @SharperDingaan ],

 

Are you still 100 per cent cash with the family capital, execpt for some unlisted real estate [, I suppose]?

[SharperDingaan]

4 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

Are you still 100 per cent cash with the family capital, execpt for some unlisted real estate [, I suppose]?

 

Roughly 40% o/g, 40% BTC-ETF, 20% cash. Much of the BTC-ETF bought back late this week.

Sadly, the more Trump opens his mouth, the more comfortable we have become with the coming tariffs.

Today's events around Zelensky just adding nails to the coffin.

 

SD

 

[Ulti]

https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/transatlantic-trade-tensions-looming-us-eu-showdown

 

“Today the picture is far more complex, with the landscape of possible points of conflict spreading over multiples fronts, some commercial and others not. There are at least seven possible fronts of latent transatlantic content—three trade fronts, two regulatory fronts, and two security fronts. The fronts are all significant but also hold options for resolution. “

[flesh]

3 hours ago, Ulti said:

https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/transatlantic-trade-tensions-looming-us-eu-showdown

 

“Today the picture is far more complex, with the landscape of possible points of conflict spreading over multiples fronts, some commercial and others not. There are at least seven possible fronts of latent transatlantic content—three trade fronts, two regulatory fronts, and two security fronts. The fronts are all significant but also hold options for resolution. “

Great article. I hope the result is Europe looking to balance the trade deficit and the usa being contented. 
 

I am concerned about free speech stuff in Europe. 
 

I think it’s obvious ai is instrumental in the future of any world leading countries. 
 

Europe regulations will likely stifle and has stifled its own prospects. 

[Ulti]

35 minutes ago, flesh said:

Europe regulations will likely stifle and has stifled its own prospects. 

Maybe the Canadian and Europeans on the board can comment… The progressive leadership from Trudeau, Biden and European, I think , is a large reason we are in this mess…. seems like the pendulum, for a variety of reasons, is swinging to the “woke right “ ( and as a centrist I abhor just as much if not more than the woke left) but I’m not sure that Europe has what it takes to change unless 0Putin decides Poland is next..

[SharperDingaan]

Most would expect that from this point forward ... Europe's defence will be to Europe to do, the US simply supplying arms and infrastructure from outside the conflict zone. As the US just did to the Ukraine, expect it to do the same to Europe as well. Our own view is European troops/weapons in Ukraine, no restrictions on their strike ability, and wholesale targeted destruction of essential Russian energy infrastructure; no different to the US in Gulf War I, II. Europe goes to war about once/century; appease Russia now, and it's Europe next, with the weapons contributing to the NATO 2% budget target. Trump gets NATO contributions up ... 

 

Few dispute that Europe and Canada need to get their sh1te together; they just don't have to be 'American', and more Asian/ME trade is preferred over American. Tariff wars enable that, the changes are long-term, and frankly we're all a lot healthier for it. US trade deficits occur because the US buys more abroad than it sells, and the FX rate is not allowed to 'float'; tariffs pressure a move to a floating FX as the solution to domestic unemployment. Trump gets nations to wake up ...

 

When rich people suddenly start seeking economies, it is a sign that they are in a financial squeeze. USD has competitors, quite a few would take great delight in seeing the US flounder as capital exits into other instruments, and capital controls are a lot harder to execute in today's world. Capital flight is just as destructive as bombs/rockets, but leaves the infrastructure intact. Trump should be careful throwing stones ....

 

Tariffs are going to happen, the US is going to seriously regret Trump, and it will be what it will be. The US public voted for him overwhelmingly, and will wear the consequences; but best if it does not travel abroad for a while. The US is toxic, and 'ugly American' is not a recommended 'look'.

 

SD

  

 

       

 

   

[Ulti]

2 hours ago, SharperDingaan said:

The US public voted for him overwhelmingly, and will wear the

https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/5094602-a-landslide-just-0-15-percent-of-all-voters-determined-trumps-2024-victory/

 

I think the popular vote was close… it was the electoral college that was more decisive… other than that I sadly agree with you… and I think it’s going to be worse domestically 

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/01/doge-actions-may-cause-social-security-benefit-interruption-ex-agency-head.html

Tip of the iceberg 

[scorpioncapital]

On 2/24/2025 at 11:01 AM, kab60 said:

Can investment managers sleep well with 70% of their assets in US equities?

 

Absolutely, because the other countries equities are even more of a train wreck.

[kab60]

52 minutes ago, scorpioncapital said:

 

Absolutely, because the other countries equities are even more of a train wreck.

Let's see. I don't think folks in Europe feel like that. Right or wrong, people basically have the US on the side of Russia, North Korea and Belarus now. 

 

Everybody, all over the world, has gone long US equities. I wonder who the incremental buyer is now, but I can see a lot of institutions in Europe, and probably elsewhere, having to reconsider.

[SharperDingaan]

There is nothing wrong with being long US equities; the world just doesn't need as much of them, and much of the money has alternative domestic opportunities. All that a money manager need do is hold puts on the indexes; thereafter he/she could care less if the equity dump crashes the market, as the loss is made back on the put gains. Ain't insurance great 

 

SD  

[scorpioncapital]

holding puts same as selling covered calls for income?

[SharperDingaan]

Long puts. Give up the premium as insurance.

 

SD