Jump to content

Argentina

PlanMaestro

By PlanMaestro
in General Discussion

 Share

Recommended Posts

Marco Van Basten Experienced

Marco Van Basten

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, dwy000 said:

Scottie B is just the one placing the bet. Its our tax money he's gambling with. All while cutting funding to things that actually benefit America. 

Like higher Medicaid spending for the 44% of NYC residents who can't be bothered to work?  Or HUD subsidies for people who live for generations in public housing in NYC?  Or subsidies for people who major in sociology or women/gender/sexuality at Columbia University, and cannot find a job post graduation?

  • Replies 131
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Posted Images

dwy000 Grand Master

dwy000

Posted
Posted
59 minutes ago, Marco Van Basten said:

Like higher Medicaid spending for the 44% of NYC residents who can't be bothered to work?  Or HUD subsidies for people who live for generations in public housing in NYC?  Or subsidies for people who major in sociology or women/gender/sexuality at Columbia University, and cannot find a job post graduation?

What are you ranting about?  This is the Argentina topic.  The fact that the deficit is 6% this year even with tariff revenues suggest the money has lots of places it could be better spent than funding a basketcase country because Trump is a fan of the president. 

Marco Van Basten Experienced

Marco Van Basten

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, dwy000 said:

What are you ranting about?  This is the Argentina topic.  The fact that the deficit is 6% this year even with tariff revenues suggest the money has lots of places it could be better spent than funding a basketcase country because Trump is a fan of the president. 

If you said that it should not be spent at all, I'd agree with you.  It's the higher spending in other areas that I object to.  Probably 20-40% of the federal spending is wasted.   

moatrep Collaborator

moatrep

Posted
Posted (edited)

Milei's image is going down. There was a political scandal where one of the members of his party, that helped finance the presidential campaing, was associated with a drug cartel leader. It comes just before the election, and the news are being spread by both kirchnerist and pro media. There is speculation that Macri (ex president 2015 to 2019) wants to make Milei bleed slowly because of many disagreements, he has a lot of influence in the pro media. 

The Peso will probably colapse after the election and the swap if I understand it properly it's a short on the peso, so it should be a good trade.

Edited by moatrep
Spekulatius Grand Master

Spekulatius

Posted
Posted (edited)

I think the US has directly purchasing Pesos, so of the currency loses its value, then US will lose money on this “trade”. The swap line is just more or less providing USD for the Argentine central bank to do the same thing.

 

Yes, there are indications that Milei is losing some of his grip on power, regardless of election outcome:

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/argentina-lower-house-approves-law-curbing-presidential-decrees-2025-10-08/

Edited by Spekulatius
cofabmd Rookie

cofabmd

Posted
Posted

There are indications this US 'bailout' of the peso is only intended to prop up Milei until after the election (lipstick on the pig). After the election, a free float occurs. Peso drops about 30% versus the dollar. 

Dalal.Holdings Grand Master

Dalal.Holdings

Posted
Posted (edited)
21 hours ago, Marco Van Basten said:

Like higher Medicaid spending for the 44% of NYC residents who can't be bothered to work?  Or HUD subsidies for people who live for generations in public housing in NYC?  Or subsidies for people who major in sociology or women/gender/sexuality at Columbia University, and cannot find a job post graduation?

 

I agree, a lot of the spending is wasted on stuff that would destroy the competitiveness of the USA. Look to Europe as a warning (UK PIP is an egregious version of this)

 

 

Edited by Dalal.Holdings
Dalal.Holdings Grand Master

Dalal.Holdings

Posted
Posted (edited)

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-accuses-us-bullying-bessent-183959409.html

 

Quote

Superpower rivalry between China and the US is heating up across Latin America as China builds influence through economic aid. China has become a key ally of Argentina, supporting it with an $18 billion swap line, increasing trade and construction of a space launch station in Patagonia.

 

 

Argentina just one of many places in Latin America where the battle for influence between China & U.S. is occurring 

 

This provides more context behind Scottie B's $20B move

 

Edited by Dalal.Holdings
Spekulatius Grand Master

Spekulatius

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-accuses-us-bullying-bessent-183959409.html

 

 

Argentina just one of many places in Latin America where the battle for influence between China & U.S. is occurring 

 

This provides more context behind Scottie B's $20B move

 

Argentina is trading much more with China and Brazil than with the USA. Thats not going to stop because the US tariffs are going to throttle Argentinian exports to the USA. Also Argentinian farmer compete with US farmers  etc.

 

The swap line and aid is politically motivated as they want to help up a perceived ally but Mileui can’t really cut lose form China either as it would be suicidal for the Argentinian economy.

 

IMG_1725.jpeg

Edited by Spekulatius
Saluki Grand Master

Saluki

Posted
Posted

It's a pity that no one can fix this place. There is a joke that Argentinians tell where God made the earth and he wanted to be fair so no place was allowed to be too good. He gave each something bad to balance it out. If a place had beautiful beaches, he gave it hurricanes, if it had beautiful rivers, he gave it floods, if it had beautiful mountains he gave it earthquakes etc. But he made Argentina so perfect that he couldn't bear to inflict earthquakes, floods, or hurricanes on it. So he thought about it and he found an answer: He filled it with Argentinians. 

 

The place has a lot of things going for it, but it needs foreign investment, not just "reform" by cutting government spending. If a lot of people work in the civil service sector, then you fire them, but there are no other jobs, what do you get? How is that teacher going to work in a factory if there aren't any new factories? 

 

When I was a kid and used to go to South America, half the food stuff in the stores said "made in Brazil" (industria Brasil) and the other half said "Made In Argentina" (Industria Argentina). Now it's mostly Brazil with some Paraguay and other countries for odds and ends. 

 

 

moatrep Collaborator

moatrep

Posted
Posted (edited)

Thinking about the geopolitcal motive in the swap, there is this theory that Argentina holds a lot of soft power in the region.

You saw that in world war 2 where Argentina pushed for neutrality against the US desire and everyone in South America followed it. 

Now there is a wave of right wing politicians coming, predictions say that in the next 2 years they will have the edge in Brazil and Peru.

The US is investing peanuts to influence super economies like Brazil if that is the case. 

 

Others thoughts from one ex economic minister: Argentina with his gas has one of the cheapest energy in the world, and also in the Patagonia with many eco energy projects. That is what OpenAi wants to profit from. Also the paradox of copper between Argentina and Chile. Chile exports 50 billion usd in copper, Argentina 4 billion usd. There is only 2 explanations: God decided that there will only be cooper in one side of the Andes or Argentinians are stupid. The second is more logical.

 

Other thoughts on Argentinian inflation: Argentines are one of the only people that ditch their currency to save in US, that is why even if Milei does everything right and doesn't print money, there will always be a shortage of usd. The country also has most of it's debt in usd. Even though the trade surplus is 20 billion some people stimate that the demand of USD for saving is of 60 billion. That is where this swap can come handy.

Edited by moatrep
moatrep Collaborator

moatrep

Posted
Posted (edited)

There is something particular that Brazil is the only country that speaks portuguese, other countries speak spanish and Argentina has a big influenze in them, having 4 neighbours that speak Spanish and are minor in size, share the same history of independence and growth. Then that influenze also ecos over the northern countries like Colombia, Venezuela, Ecuador and Peru (which don't have any satelite countries, and their policies don't have this "eco"). 

So if you add all spanish speaking countries you get that they as a group have a sizable influenze. Obviously Brazil is more influenzial, but Argentina has more ROI (return on influenze.

 

If you look in Africa, Europe, Oceania and Asia you don't have that many contries that speak the same language interacting with each other. This is quite a singularity.

 

Edited by moatrep
dwy000 Grand Master

dwy000

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, moatrep said:

There is something particular that Brazil is the only country that speaks portuguese, other countries speak spanish and Argentina has a big influenze in them, having 4 neighbours that speak Spanish and are minor in size, share the same history of independence and growth. Then that influenze also ecos over the northern countries like Colombia, Venezuela, Ecuador and Peru (which don't have any satelite countries, and their policies don't have this "eco"). 

So if you add all spanish speaking countries you get that they as a group have a sizable influenze. Obviously Brazil is more influenzial, but Argentina has more ROI (return on influenze.

 

If you look in Africa, Europe, Oceania and Asia you don't have that many contries that speak the same language interacting with each other. This is quite a singularity.

 

Wouldn't that suggest that a common language doesnt have any meaningful influence on economics or politics?

 

Argentina and Brazil are countries with enormous potential.  And seemingly always will be.  

moatrep Collaborator

moatrep

Posted
Posted (edited)

I think that a common language has a lot of influenze. If there is not that many cases is because normally countries with the same languages tend to unite. So that will give you a strong force of influenze. Also the culture is in it's roots the same, they come from the same spanish colony, similar migration patterns, similar history up to now between the spanish speaking latin America. 

 

 

Edited by moatrep
dwy000 Grand Master

dwy000

Posted
Posted

So it looks like it's now $40bn not $20bn.  Bessent talked about working on another $20bn facility that will be adjacent to the $20bn swap line.  

 

So doubling the price of Healthcare for millions of Americans while giving $40bn to Argentina.  How is this America First?

moatrep Collaborator

moatrep

Posted
Posted (edited)

If the milei's plan is right and milei win the election then the currency should with the swap stay stable.  So it will not be a loss. 

The Argentinians do a natural swap of 60b per year in savings, the US can agree to give it back and help stabilize the currency for "free", and don't risk another Venezuela or brics consolidating South America. 

The payment of debt is around 20b, the same 20b it's the trade surplus. Then the argentinian saving demand is 60b and now the swap with china  of 20b and the swap with the US of 40b can stabilize the currency.

 

It's not perfect, Milei needs congress approval to pass legislation to attract invesments or the country will stay stagnant. Some hope is the anouncement of some investments last week and that the US regards Argentina as a systemic ally.

 

Also south America is watching, if Milei's plan goes well Brazil may be influenzed outside of Brics. Or public opinion against Venezuela will rise. Now the focus of the US is in the backyard, so it makes sense to put some coins in the first to align with them.

 

If brics takes Venezuela, Argentina and Brazil, good luck with the backyard, that is why I think there is not other option than support Milei.

 

If all fails the US sphere of influence will be cut in Panama. Or the US will have to support military dictatorships again to remove the brics influenze. It may happen but why not try the influenze instead.

 

 

 

Edited by moatrep
Spekulatius Grand Master

Spekulatius

Posted
Posted

The problem with Argentina is that it’s not a large US trading partner and in fact competes with the US ( agricultural goods, energy). its is a much more natural trading partner with China who needs these goods. So Argentina can’t really ditch China (which is what the US wants) because it would be suicidal to their economy. Brazil so similar - because they are so close, their economies are intertwined so even if Lula and Milei don’t like each other, the countries will just have to get along.

  • 2 weeks later...

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share
Go to topic listing


×
×
  • Create New...