25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports.

[Viking]

Trump is gambling that countries will not push back. And that the impact of tariffs on the US economy will be minor. I am not so sure. He also has a timing issue - mid-term elections in the US are in less than 2 years. So he needs to move quickly - but moving quickly takes away his biggest piece of leverage - divide and conquer (extort/nail one country at a time). 

 

Canada has responded pretty aggressively. We will see what Mexico and China do. Trump said yesterday the EU is next (with tarriffs). The problem for Trump is if all the countries impose meaningful tariffs at the same time... well it doesn't take a rocket scientist to understand that at some point US consumers are going to start to feel pain.

 

I am really interested to see what the stock market does this week. It has been whistling past the graveyard the past month - likely under the assumption that   like in term 1, any pain from Trump's policies will be minor/short lived. Well, that is now starting to look unlikely. 

 

If the temperature is not brought down quickly (and Trump is the only one who can do that) this has the potential to metastasize. That the US could become broadly reviled in a country like Canada is nuts (but that is the path Trump/US is on). Yes, it is early days. So let's hope that a resolution/solution is found.

Edited 3 hours ago by Viking

[Xerxes]

For Canadians who are all gung-ho, be careful with the boycotts.  
 

Support our locals when you can (and have a choice) but don’t boycott American consumer brands and businesses, just because they have an American brand. 
 

I see lists going on social media. Franchises have Canadian employees and local owners. Who cares if the corporate headquarters is in the U.S. 

[dwy000]

6 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

I didn’t say that. Where did I say I support the tariffs? You all seem to be totally lost because you’re used to the good ole boy club negotiating style where they all go to some yuppy summit or super exclusive location and drink cognac while figuring out how to continue the untenable status quo and package it so the little guy thinks he’s got a chance. That’s been Trudeaus game. It was Biden career. It was Obama and Bush’s game. It’s definitely not how real world business gets done. 
 

Trump wants something from Mexico, Canadas at times been a bit of a freeloader, he uses one to get what he wants from the other. He has the leverage and this is literally one of the bigger ticket items he ran on. It’s all very practical and easy to see. I don’t have to agree with something to see it or understand it. 

But you admitted it was largely a meaningless stunt to maybe get some more defense spending and keep a campaign promise.  So do you support the tarriffs and chaos to get that tiny thing as an outcome?  That was good for America?

Edited 3 hours ago by dwy000

[cubsfan]

2 hours ago, james22 said:

 

 

Oh no - not another Trump stooge! Look, he's going to actually negotiate with Trump and he understands his position. Like the Canadian journalists, etc ...

 

Art of the Deal boys.... you'll never get it.

 

 

[Gregmal]

3 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

But you admitted it was largely a meaningless stunt to maybe get some more defense spending and keep a campaign promise.  So do you support the tarriffs and chaos to get that tiny thing as an outcome?  That was good for America?

It’s inconsequential noise and won’t stick; I can live with or without it. I’m not in the business of getting my nickers in a bunch every time some politician wants to make a scene. 
 

See this is another thing people don’t get. It’s something the marketers and newsletter macro guys love…selling everyone on this idea that you need to have an opinion and be invested in every little thing that happens. It’s not really true. You can absolutely pick you own battles and more often than not you can choose to have none at all. If people want to bid down assets tomorrow because of it, please, be my guest. If people want to alter their lifestyles because of it, please, be my guest. I’m just gonna go about today the same way I went about yesterday and that will be the same way I go about tomorrow. 

[cwericb]

Meanwhile in Panama, Marko Rubio is threatening another nation. Turn over the Canal or else we are going to send in our troops. 

[Viking]

I realize Canada is a small country (40 million people). But here is one small example of what is happening in Canada right now. My guess is Canada was a pretty good market for US liquor producers. Not any more. The problem with products like liquor is lost sales are... well they are lost forever (it's not like consumers drink 2x the amount when the product is available again). And once you lose facings in a store (and consumers shift to another brand) your brand is permanently damaged. 

 

Liquor companies (and their employees) in the US must be thanking their lucky stars at their good fortune.

 

Provinces respond to Trump tariffs by pulling U.S. liquor from shelves

- https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ford-lcbo-tariffs-trump-1.7448423

[cubsfan]

4 minutes ago, cwericb said:

Meanwhile in Panama, Marko Rubio is threatening another nation. Turn over the Canal or else we are going to send in our troops. 

 

Why tell lies about this??

 

Mulino told reporters after the meeting that Rubio made “no real threat of retaking the canal or the use of force.”

 

Mulino, meanwhile, called his talks with Rubio “respectful” and “positive” and said he did not “feel like there’s a real threat against the treaty and its validity.”

Edited 3 hours ago by cubsfan

[dwy000]

10 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

It’s inconsequential noise and won’t stick; I can live with or without it. I’m not in the business of getting my nickers in a bunch every time some politician wants to make a scene. 
 

See this is another thing people don’t get. It’s something the marketers and newsletter macro guys love…selling everyone on this idea that you need to have an opinion and be invested in every little thing that happens. It’s not really true. You can absolutely pick you own battles and more often than not you can choose to have none at all. If people want to bid down assets tomorrow because of it, please, be my guest. If people want to alter their lifestyles because of it, please, be my guest. I’m just gonna go about today the same way I went about yesterday and that will be the same way I go about tomorrow. 

I get enjoying shaking things up and doing things differently.  But this is not some renaming of a mountain or talking about pronouns.  This is fucking with the global economy and making potentially permanent changes by many of the US's biggest allies, all for a PR stunt and ego.  And that's assuming it IS shortlived (which with Trump is never a safe.bet). 

 

And as much as you rail on the politicians and process, business thrives on stability and predictability.  Chaos for the sake of ego is just bad leadership regardless of your political or policy views. 

[cubsfan]

1 minute ago, dwy000 said:

I get enjoying shaking things up and doing things differently.  But this is not some renaming of a mountain or talking about pronouns.  This is fucking with the global economy and making potentially permanent changes by many of the US's biggest allies, all for a PR stunt and ego.  And that's assuming it IS shortlived (which with Trump is never a safe.bet). 

 

And as much as you rail on the politicians and process, business thrives on stability and predictability.  Chaos for the sake of ego is just bad leadership regardless of your political or policy views. 

 

You are so wrong. He's doing it for the country - exactly why he was elected. He's completely serious about changing the international dynamics and alliance arrangements.

 

FAFO.

[KFRCanuk]

I suspect Canadian companies will start to delay paying US invoices now. I work in IT. Not sure if MSFT, Google and AWS will extend terms. We can't get off them in the short term.

 

This delays Cisco purchases we were going to make.

Edited 2 hours ago by KFRCanuk

[dwy000]

3 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

You are so wrong. He's doing it for the country - exactly why he was elected. He's completely serious about changing the international dynamics and alliance arrangements.

 

FAFO.

You really need to stop with the Fox talking points and start thinking for yourself. There is nothing about tarriffs on Canada because of drugs that makes any sense or is positive for America.  This is about Trump's ego. 

[Spooky]

44 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

I didn’t say that. Where did I say I support the tariffs? You all seem to be totally lost because you’re used to the good ole boy club negotiating style where they all go to some yuppy summit or super exclusive location and drink cognac while figuring out how to continue the untenable status quo and package it so the little guy thinks he’s got a chance. That’s been Trudeaus game. It was Biden career. It was Obama and Bush’s game. It’s definitely not how real world business gets done. 
 

Trump wants something from Mexico, Canadas at times been a bit of a freeloader, he uses one to get what he wants from the other. He has the leverage and this is literally one of the bigger ticket items he ran on. It’s all very practical and easy to see. I don’t have to agree with something to see it or understand it. 

 

Trump's negotiating style is fine for one-off games only. Anyone who has a basic knowledge of game theory knows that in repeat games you can't negotiate this way.

[dwy000]

Just now, Spooky said:

 

Trump's negotiating style is fine for one-off games only. Anyone who has a basic knowledge of game theory knows that in repeat games you can't negotiate this way.

It's also fine if there's a goal you want to achieve. Reducing drug flow FROM CANADA is the stupidest goal in history to go to the mattresses on. 

[james22]

Whatever calculus you've decided that makes a tariff war preferable to better policing, you should consider: 

 

If you imagine Americans are angry about Canadian security negligence  now, imagine what it'll be post some terrorist attack linked back to Canadian passage.

[cubsfan]

1 minute ago, dwy000 said:

You really need to stop with the Fox talking points and start thinking for yourself. There is nothing about tarriffs on Canada because of drugs that makes any sense or is positive for America.  This is about Trump's ego. 

 

You need to start listening. You keep using the same foolish arguments over and over - and don't like the responses you're getting. You have it all figured out.

[Gregmal]

1 minute ago, Spooky said:

 

Trump's negotiating style is fine for one-off games only. Anyone who has a basic knowledge of game theory knows that in repeat games you can't negotiate this way.

Trump was pretty decisively elected because of two issues, the economy, and crime/border issues. I guarantee the border and crime issues look significantly improved over the next 2-4 years. The economy is really what he’s gambling with. The super gamble is perhaps banking on some softness very early on to get rates down. Should be interesting. 

[Spooky]

Just now, james22 said:

Whatever calculus you've decided that makes a tariff war preferable to better policing, you should consider: 

 

If you imagine Americans are angry about Canadian security negligence  now, imagine what it'll be post some terrorist attack linked back to Canadian passage.

 

And where is the evidence of any of this? This is a wildly irresponsible hypothetical. WE didn't choose to have a trade war.

[Mephistopheles]

1 hour ago, Gregmal said:

Liberal leaders: Trump is Hitler

Trump elected: let’s go to Mar a lago. Let’s cozy up to him. 

Liberal leaders: China is evil

Tariffs: Let’s do more business with China lol

 

The thing that’s great about Trump is he really exposed the system for what it is…and that’s largely a massive bunch of elitist babies self dealing and lying to the public to push their own agendas. 

 

JD Vance: Trump is Hitler 

 

Trump becomes nominee: Let me kiss his ass and be his VP!

 

sorry, I had to! Still love you man

[cubsfan]

4 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Trump was pretty decisively elected because of two issues, the economy, and crime/border issues. I guarantee the border and crime issues look significantly improved over the next 2-4 years. The economy is really what he’s gambling with. The super gamble is perhaps banking on some softness very early on to get rates down. Should be interesting. 

 

100%

[james22]

4 minutes ago, Spooky said:

And where is the evidence of any of this? This is a wildly irresponsible hypothetical. WE didn't choose to have a trade war.

 

Seriously?

 

Border Patrol data states that 358 suspects on the terror watchlist were arrested on the northern border at ports of entry in fiscal year 2024.

 

Three suspects were encountered between ports of entry.

 

On the southern border, a total of 155 suspects were encountered in fiscal year 2024.

 

https://www.cbsnews.com/boston/news/illegal-crossings-northern-us-border-terror-suspects-arrested/

[wisowis]

What are we buying Monday morning when Canadian equities limit down? 

[keegomaster]

Here is an article from the Globe and Mail with commentary from economists and market strategists. 

 

‘Brace for impact’: Economists and market strategists react to trade war as loonie begins to slide

 

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/gift/09dbc7022ea28a2939a58ab8550316ea7e2969ab5746ee273732482fd781978c/YLWGO53WFJDD7J3P74LSNLPBEU/

[cubsfan]

9 minutes ago, Spooky said:

 

And where is the evidence of any of this? This is a wildly irresponsible hypothetical. WE didn't choose to have a trade war.

 

It's understandable that you don't think your security concerns are important.

 

They won't be, until something happens. In the meantime - stay in la-la land.

 

I have some rich friends that refuse to invest in catastrophe insurance too.

I think it's a big mistake.

Edited 2 hours ago by cubsfan

[Gregmal]

7 minutes ago, Mephistopheles said:

 

JD Vance: Trump is Hitler 

 

Trump becomes nominee: Let me kiss his ass and be his VP!

 

sorry, I had to! Still love you man

It’s true though, they’re all playing us. The two party system is really just a one party system.