Fairfax 2025

[Hoodlum]

10 minutes ago, gary17 said:

there's an overall market correction happening IMHO.

Possibly, although Insurers have been going up this week including today. Everyone except Fairfax. Eventually Fairfax’s share price will jump as well. 

[Junior R]

26 minutes ago, Hoodlum said:

Possibly, although Insurers have been going up this week including today. Everyone except Fairfax. Eventually Fairfax’s share price will jump as well. 

maybe 5% buyback for entire year at these prices lol

[Crip1]

OK, added to my position at $1,615 last week which caused the immediate 3-4% decline. Fully disclosure, just added again at $1,543. 

 

Y'all may be able to get in at $1,500 if previous trends continues.

 

A little surprised at the price action this morning but, oh well, when the pitch is fat...swing.

 

-Crip

[backtothebeach]

Does someone have a link to the conference call recording?

[Hsmpanl]

9 minutes ago, backtothebeach said:

Does someone have a link to the conference call recording?

Someone told me this recently so passing it on... get Quartr, it's incredible.

[Junior R]

15 minutes ago, backtothebeach said:

Does someone have a link to the conference call recording?

Quote

A replay of the call will be available from shortly after the termination of the call until 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time on Friday, November 21, 2025. The replay may be accessed at (800) 396-1242 (Canada and U.S.) or 1 (203) 369-3272 (International).

 

[mistakenpoint]

Use the Quartr App!! It has recordings and transcripts of most conference calls. It's one of the greatest inventions.

[backtothebeach]

1 hour ago, Hsmpanl said:

Someone told me this recently so passing it on... get Quartr, it's incredible.

Listening in the Quartr app now, thanks!

Who wants to call a phone number to listen to a conference call, that's so 20th century.

[Junior R]

I wonder what is happening with the stock

[Jan]

Me too

[Whensthepaintdry?]

I am surprised to see it trending down so consistently. On the call he said they expect 5 billion in earnings for 3 to 4 years. I am not sure what more you can ask for at this price. I guess it’s just destined to trade at book value every now and then.  

[Gregmal]

I mean it's easy to get conditioned to expect 10% quarterly returns after big yearly runs; much like tech investors. But short term gratification is not necessarily synonymous with a properly functioning business or a great long term investment. So I wouldnt exactly conclude that "something is wrong with the stock".

Edited November 7, 2025 by Gregmal

[gfp]

It's great - they spell out that Q4 is the big quarter for reserve releases.  They spell out the excess of fair value over book value per share.  They spell out the gain that will be recognized when Eurolife closes.  They spell out how unusual it was that they had both bond losses and discounting losses in Q3 when they usually cancel each other out (like they have over the first 9 months taken together).

 

They spell out the prices they are interested in picking up the pace on repurchases.

 

They have all of their capital allocation decisions laid out before them like a menu for the next few years.  The polar opposite of Berkshire's problem.

 

And non-insurance businesses, the ones that make money when insurance doesn't, are starting to show up for the people who don't pay close attention...

 

 

[value_hunter]

Looks like seller don't care. They just want to push down the stoke price. I noticed that most sellers are "Anonymous" in TMX.

[Viking]

“What possible assurance do you have that (a stock you own) will go up in price? And if you are buying, how much should you pay? What you’re asking here is what makes a company valuable, and why it will be more valuable tomorrow than it is today. There are many theories, but to me, it always comes down to earnings and assets. Especially earnings.” Peter Lynch - One Up on Wall Street

 

How is Fairfax performing? Very well. Why do I think this? Follow earnings.

• Q3 net earnings = $1.15b or $52 per diluted share
• YTD (9 month) net earnings = $3.53b or $156 per diluted share
• Book value = $1,204/share, up 15.1% in 9 months (including $15 dividend)

Excess of FV over CV for associate and consolidated holdings = $2.5b

• This item is not included in reported earnings (it would be if Fairfax's ownership stake in these equities was less than 20%). 
• YTD increase = $1.0b, or $43/share pre-tax = $35/share after-tax

How has Fairfax really been doing (economic value creation)?

• YTD (9 month) economic EPS = $190/share ($156 + $35)
• This is a conservative estimate (it does not include everything).

Bottom line, 2025 is shaping up to be Fairfax’s best year ever from an earnings perspective. The company’s two business units (P/C insurance and investment management) are performing at a very high level. Capital allocation at the company continues to be best-in-class. Fairfax’s future has never been brighter.

[Marco Van Basten]

29 minutes ago, gfp said:

It's great - they spell out that Q4 is the big quarter for reserve releases.  They spell out the excess of fair value over book value per share.  They spell out the gain that will be recognized when Eurolife closes.  They spell out how unusual it was that they had both bond losses and discounting losses in Q3 when they usually cancel each other out (like they have over the first 9 months taken together).

 

They spell out the prices they are interested in picking up the pace on repurchases.

 

They have all of their capital allocation decisions laid out before them like a menu for the next few years.  The polar opposite of Berkshire's problem.

 

And non-insurance businesses, the ones that make money when insurance doesn't, are starting to show up for the people who don't pay close attention...

 

 

I listened to the call, but missed it - at what price they are interested to pick up the pace on repurchases?  Thank you.

[gfp]

1 minute ago, Marco Van Basten said:

I listened to the call, but missed it - at what price they are interested to pick up the pace on repurchases?  Thank you.

 

This price Marco.  This price

 

(they said it with their actions, not their words )

Edited November 7, 2025 by gfp

[Viking]

31 minutes ago, gfp said:

It's great - they spell out that Q4 is the big quarter for reserve releases.  They spell out the excess of fair value over book value per share.  They spell out the gain that will be recognized when Eurolife closes.  They spell out how unusual it was that they had both bond losses and discounting losses in Q3 when they usually cancel each other out (like they have over the first 9 months taken together).

 

They spell out the prices they are interested in picking up the pace on repurchases.

 

They have all of their capital allocation decisions laid out before them like a menu for the next few years.  The polar opposite of Berkshire's problem.

 

And non-insurance businesses, the ones that make money when insurance doesn't, are starting to show up for the people who don't pay close attention...

 

+1 

 

On the Q3 conference call Fairfax left lots of bread crumbs for investors who are paying attention... 

Edited November 7, 2025 by Viking

[Crip1]

56 minutes ago, Junior R said:

I wonder what is happening with the stock

Maybe others will remember but, years ago, it was common for a solid earnings report to be followed up by a 2-3 day delay in the market recognizing it. it was odd, but happened multiple times.

 

Whether it happens this time remains to be seen...and is of minimal importance. The COMPANY is performing better than the STOCK has in the past couple of months. Fine...it was my biggest holding and is now 12% bigger. It's akin to the houses that leave open buckets of candy out asking trick-or-treaters to take only one...the current stock price is jus too tempting. Only buying more is far more ethical/moral than grabbing fist fulls of candy.

 

-Crip

[Txvestor]

19 minutes ago, Viking said:

 

+1 

 

On the Q3 conference call Fairfax left lots of bread crumbs for investors who are paying attention... 

Their TRS position hadn't matured sufficiently for them to harvest. Isn't that an indicator of where they think the price of the stock is?

 

Their average buy in price for the year is $1581 for 542k shares of which most was since July and over 100k just this past month. 
and yet the shares trade for under these prices. 
 

Agree lots of crumbs. 

Edited November 7, 2025 by Txvestor

[LC]

COBF today, myself included:

[gfp]

11 minutes ago, Crip1 said:

Maybe others will remember but, years ago, it was common for a solid earnings report to be followed up by a 2-3 day delay in the market recognizing it. it was odd, but happened multiple times.

 

Whether it happens this time remains to be seen...and is of minimal importance. The COMPANY is performing better than the STOCK has in the past couple of months. Fine...it was my biggest holding and is now 12% bigger. It's akin to the houses that leave open buckets of candy out asking trick-or-treaters to take only one...the current stock price is jus too tempting. Only buying more is far more ethical/moral than grabbing fist fulls of candy.

 

-Crip

 

Yeah Crip1!  That's what I was saying on the other thread when I said " It's like the old days "  !!

 

Maybe it goes lower than today but I'm not going to bet on it.

 

Plus every time I sell a little Biglari Holdings a few hours before their earnings report to buy Fairfax shares I reduce my risk and get a good clean feelin'

[Hoodlum]

4 minutes ago, Txvestor said:

Their TRS position hadn't matured sufficiently for them to harvest. Isn't that an indicator of where they think the price of the stock is?

 

If it is Fairfax’s intention to buy back the shares under the TRS, then the timing of that happening would not be based on the share price but rather when there is no better opportunity for their cash.  
 

They could buy back now at $2200 with a lower price, or wait and capture additional earnings before paying more later to buy back at $3k.  It is pretty much a wash either way long term.  It is just showing up in different buckets. 

[dartmonkey]

19 minutes ago, Junior R said:

maybe 5% buyback for entire year at these prices lol

Yes. Their NCIB, in place for the year from Sept 30, 2025 to Sept 29, 2026, allows them to repurchase up to 10% of the current float, i.e. 2.187m shares, which would represent 9.7% of the subordinate shares. Yesterday, the company said that they had repurchased 107,525 of its subordinate voting shares for cancellation. Since there have been 27 trading days since the announcement of the NCIB, they have repurchased an average of 3,982 shares every day, compared to the maximum approved amount which is 11,371. So they are not maximimzing their repurchases. But if they were to continue at this pace for the whole 12 months (about 251 trading days), they would have repurchased 3982*251 = 0.9996m shares of their subordinate shares, a hair under a million, representing almost 5% of the total.

 

Seems like a good target; at current prices, that would represent about US$1.56b, and at their current rate ($2.9b in earnings in the first 9 months of 2025), that would leave them enough to this year pursue other opportunities like buying out the remaining Allied World stake ($1-2b probably) and pursue other acquisition too, if they wish, given their $2.8b in cash at the holding company level.

[netcash1]

37 minutes ago, Viking said:

 

+1 

 

On the Q3 conference call Fairfax left lots of bread crumbs for investors who are paying attention... 

I think some of us might forget that BRK has higher quality assets in the United States.  Fairfax, a great company and doing wonderful, disciplined capital allocation has a chunk of their assets in emerging markets.