gfp Posted November 2 Share Posted November 2 Press release: https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/news/nov0224.pdf 10Q: https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/qtrly/3rdqtr24.pdf Insurance float up $5 Billion since the end of Q2! Surprising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SongDonkey.AI Posted November 2 Share Posted November 2 10 minutes ago, gfp said: since the end of Q2! since yearend 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted November 2 Author Share Posted November 2 1 minute ago, SongDonkey.AI said: since yearend 2023 "At June 30, 2024, insurance float (the net liabilities we assume under insurance contracts) was approximately $169 billion." " At September 30, 2024, insurance float (the net liabilities we assume under insurance contracts) was approximately $174 billion, an increase of $5 billion since yearend 2023." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted November 2 Author Share Posted November 2 (edited) Looks like he kept selling Apple in the quarter and maybe the round number he stopped at is actually 300m shares quite the tax bill "Our sales of equity securities produced taxable gains of $23.4 billion in the third quarter and $97.1 billion in the first nine months of 2024" Edited November 2 by gfp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backtothebeach Posted November 2 Share Posted November 2 2023 Q3 2024 Q2 2024 Q3 Book Value BH SE in Mio. 525,330 601,697 629,069 A share equ Q end 1,445,546 1,436,696 1,437,608 BV per A 363,413 418,806 437,580 BV per B 242.28 279.20 291.72 current B share price 351.7 428.36 452.14 Mcap 762,598 923,135 975,000 BV multiple 1.45 1.53 1.55 Cash cash & equiv. 25,573 36,884 32,287 treasury bills 126,401 234,618 288,031 cash railroad 5,267 5,440 4,894 payable for treasuries -14,868 Total 157,241 276,942 310,344 Cash % of Market Cap 20.6% 30.0% 31.8% Operating Earnings Insurance underwriting 2,422 2,263 750 Insurance investment 2,470 3,320 3,664 BNSF 1,221 1,227 1,383 BHE 498 655 1629 Pilot 183 171 198 MSR 3,341 3,209 3,144 non-controlled businesses 226 220 199 other 400 533 -877 Operating Earnings 10,761 11,598 10,090 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backtothebeach Posted November 2 Share Posted November 2 Operating earnings not so great because of insurance and "other", whatever that includes. No buybacks during or after the end of the quarter. What the hell is he planning with all that cash?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Junior R Posted November 2 Share Posted November 2 6 minutes ago, backtothebeach said: Operating earnings not so great because of insurance and "other", whatever that includes. No buybacks during or after the end of the quarter. What the hell is he planning with all that cash?! buy chubb lol joking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwoodman Posted November 2 Share Posted November 2 9 minutes ago, backtothebeach said: Operating earnings not so great because of insurance and "other", whatever that includes. No buybacks during or after the end of the quarter. What the hell is he planning with all that cash?! 1. Market valuation 2. A life insurance policy that only Berkshire can write….buybacks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted November 2 Author Share Posted November 2 (edited) BRK underwriting results were hit by Helene ($565m) and a large NICO bankruptcy court settlement (~$500m). Luckily GEICO is back in the black offsetting that. Geico Helene losses were $260m of the total Milton will take a hit in Q4: " We currently estimate that pre-tax incurred losses from Hurricane Milton could be between $1.3 billion and $1.5 billion. Losses from this event will be reflected in our fourth quarter earnings based on information available at that time." Edited November 2 by gfp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
73 Reds Posted November 2 Share Posted November 2 48 minutes ago, backtothebeach said: Operating earnings not so great because of insurance and "other", whatever that includes. No buybacks during or after the end of the quarter. What the hell is he planning with all that cash?! No share buybacks is not real surprising, particularly if you go back and read his last downtrodden letter to shareholders. A combination of stretched valuations and stalwart holdings with a lot more future uncertainty doesn't provide much buyback appeal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yesman182 Posted November 2 Share Posted November 2 1 hour ago, gfp said: 97.1 billion in the first nine months of 2024" Has this already been paid, or is 100 of the 300 cash already spoken for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sleepydragon Posted November 2 Share Posted November 2 old man still capable of big swings— this time loading up on cash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbwent63 Posted November 2 Share Posted November 2 Other includes huge swings in f/x gains and losses, primarily on the foreign denominated debt (think yen debt). If this is stripped away, operating earnings are actually higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted November 2 Author Share Posted November 2 (edited) 16 minutes ago, yesman182 said: Has this already been paid, or is 100 of the 300 cash already spoken for? $97 Billion is the taxable gain not the tax bill due. You can use 21% to pencil in a figure. Cash paid for taxes during the first 9 months has been $17.5 Billion so Berkshire is paying some tax as it goes. There are a lot of moving parts and tax credits but cash arrives every day so I wouldn't be handicapping the cash pile for accrued expenses. Especially if repurchases remain on pause - Berkshire can stack cash awfully quickly. (plus we know the BofA sales continued after the quarter end) Edited November 2 by gfp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Masterofnone Posted November 2 Share Posted November 2 There seems to me to be only two possible reasons the old fellow is raising so much cash: A huge purchase (think Mars) or a conviction that the odds are good for a substantial "correction" in the markets. He doesn't like to buy things when prices are dear, so my odds-making would be that he is substantially pessimistic about where markets are headed. Any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
73 Reds Posted November 2 Share Posted November 2 10 minutes ago, Masterofnone said: There seems to me to be only two possible reasons the old fellow is raising so much cash: A huge purchase (think Mars) or a conviction that the odds are good for a substantial "correction" in the markets. He doesn't like to buy things when prices are dear, so my odds-making would be that he is substantially pessimistic about where markets are headed. Any thoughts? My thoughts about Berkshire extend well beyond the present time. How does Buffett view the future? If investment alternatives are limited now, what about 5 and 10 years from now? How large can Berkshire grow until something needs to change? Will any such changes happen during Buffett's tenure, and if so, what will they be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted November 2 Author Share Posted November 2 Cash headlines seem to be a little bit inflated if there isn't another explanation for these $14.868 Billion in T-bills that Berkshire hadn't yet paid for on 9/30: (under liabilities) Payable for purchases of U.S. Treasury Bills 14,868 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backtothebeach Posted November 2 Share Posted November 2 1 hour ago, gfp said: Cash headlines seem to be a little bit inflated if there isn't another explanation for these $14.868 Billion in T-bills that Berkshire hadn't yet paid for on 9/30: (under liabilities) Payable for purchases of U.S. Treasury Bills 14,868 Yes, there is one precedent for that, in Q3, 2020 I think, when the media didn’t notice the payable for T bills as well, some of them corrected it, some didn’t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted November 2 Author Share Posted November 2 5 minutes ago, backtothebeach said: Yes, there is one precedent for that, in Q3, 2020 I think, when the media didn’t notice the payable for T bills as well, some of them corrected it, some didn’t. Yeah I remember that happening. It's just an overnight liability really but the balance sheet is a snapshot of a moment in time. Either way, BAC sales are probably ongoing and there is plenty of cash rolling in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LearningMachine Posted November 2 Share Posted November 2 (edited) Wow, BRK currently has more invested in treasuries & cash ($310.34B) vs. equity securities ($271.65B). Looks like it was the case from 2000 to 2006 as well, and then Buffett started deploying in 2007-2009. So, he has got lots of patience. Would love to hear stories from anyone else with that much patience in waiting while treasuries were yielding reasonably, and then successfully leveraging the opportunities when they came. Edited November 2 by LearningMachine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RunPacoRun Posted November 2 Share Posted November 2 2 hours ago, Masterofnone said: Any thoughts? Combining your thoughts here, LearningMachine's, and others on this thread, the Berkshire's underlying motives really go back to the basics: * The discount to intrinsic value for equities in the portfolio has been reached or exceeded. * Treasuries at today's quoted risk-free rates than what's out there for equities and large wholly-owned companies. * They're going to make a big purchase, such as CB. Looking back to pre-2008 and pre-2000, they were just acting on points 1 and 2. Again, these are just inferences from other people's ideas and what has been written in the annual reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spooky Posted November 2 Share Posted November 2 (edited) He sure does love T-Bills right now. Up to $288 B from $129 B at year end! I wonder how much of the equity sales are tied to: a) the risk of higher potential taxes after the election; b) overvaluation of Apple; or c) probability of some kind of financial crash. Buffett always said he doesn't do market timing / macro but he has been pretty good at it in the past. For point c) one thing I have been thinking about are Elon's comments if Trump wins where he will slash government spending by $2 Trillion. Given how much government spending / deficits are contributing to GDP currently this could create a serious recession. Edited November 2 by Spooky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DooDiligence Posted November 2 Share Posted November 2 (edited) 4 hours ago, Masterofnone said: There seems to me to be only two possible reasons the old fellow is raising so much cash: A huge purchase (think Mars) or a conviction that the odds are good for a substantial "correction" in the markets. He doesn't like to buy things when prices are dear, so my odds-making would be that he is substantially pessimistic about where markets are headed. Any thoughts? A guy can dream, right? https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-spent-billions-help-mars-buy-wrigley-2008-crisis-2020-7-1029366581 Pet products and rolling up vet clinics is interesting. Just another pointless fantasy? Edited November 2 by DooDiligence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Munger_Disciple Posted November 2 Share Posted November 2 12 minutes ago, DooDiligence said: A guy can dream, right? https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-spent-billions-help-mars-buy-wrigley-2008-crisis-2020-7-1029366581 Pet products and rolling up vet clinics is interesting. Just another pointless fantasy? There is no way the Mars family wants to sell such a great business unless there are family issues with control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPO Posted November 2 Share Posted November 2 11 minutes ago, Munger_Disciple said: There is no way the Mars family wants to sell such a great business unless there are family issues with control. I suppose he could buy the world’s largest packaged food company if he cashed in their L’ Oreal stake, but I suspect he’s just doing some combination of portfolio rebalancing, building a war chest for the next downdraft and setting up his successor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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