US Exceptionalism

[cubsfan]

23 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

 The left would say that is discrimination but the reality is inviting people into your country who despise your values and culture is just not a good idea ever.

 

+1

[Malmqky]

I think in general, the leftists who would “disagree” with the above are actually disagreeing with dumbasses who think following a different religion (re:not Christianity) or something like that “is despising our values and culture”.  These dumbasses are few and far between but exist.

 

On the other hand, while few and far between, there certainly are some leftists who think we should invite ppl into this country who truly do despise our culture.

 

I think most people are reasonable and our media likes to pretend we are more divided and extreme as a nation than we really our - a few extreme outliers on both sides don’t reflect what the average conservative and liberal in our country is actually like.

 

Maybe I’m naive and just want to see the best in us though. 

[nsx5200]

Old code is bad code

 

This typically is true when the requirements and circumstances have changed.  The problem with new code is that it is still code, and all code will have bugs.  So new code will have a new set of bugs.  Most coders, new or experienced, will typically come along looking at the legacy code and legacy bugs thinking they can 'fix' the issues by writing new code, only to find out their new code has new issues.  Some of those new issues can not be solved because of some new flaws in the underlying models.

 

The solution is to have a solid underlying model, document that model so future coders have a clear understanding of the limits of that model, so when situation changes that require a model change, the model is updated and relevant code re-written to fit the new model.

 

Law and religions are just code for people with more uncertainty in execution, when compared against computers.

 

I think all the religion have the same goal of improving society.  Good ideas, for the conditions at the time, will allow followers of those religion to out perform than the followers of religions that have worse ideas.  Back when there is a lot less number of people, having followers out-number the followers of a competitive religion is a huge advantage, as it provide the margin to prevent the religion from dying out.  So it was important to have built-in elements that allow followers of those religion to out-grow the ones that don't have those built-in elements.  So anti-abortion, and anti-suicide are some of those elements.

 

The conditions for some of those ideas have changed, and accordingly, some of those ideas are now no longer as relevant.

 

If viewed from this perspective, you can judge, with more ease, whether a particular practice/idea is good or bad without holding them as dogmas.  Blindly following the best practices should be treated as the default mode, as there will be ones that don't have the capacity or time to actually go through the exercise of properly evaluating every ideas codified in every religion or legal system.  But every code in the religion or legal system must justify its experience by explaining the 'why', so future coders can come along to properly evaluate whether those practices are now bad code, or at least identify the over-looked places where improvements can be made.  Hopefully there's also some form of change log that also captures those reasoning to provide a historical solution cookbook of sorts to draw from when those type of problem arise again.

[fareastwarriors]

The S&P 500 Makes Up 51% of Global Stock Market Value 

 

2023

Edited Friday at 06:20 PM by fareastwarriors

[coc]

On 12/18/2024 at 10:26 AM, Dinar said:

You claim that Arabs/Africans/Muslim don't achieve as much as the Jews due to their environment.  I offered you to test your theory: achievement of both ethnic groups in Europe today.  Go ahead and test your theory, see what the results will be.  I haven't seen one article about terrorist attack committed by a Jew in Europe in the last thirty years, while see how many actual and attempted terror attacks have been by Muslims.  

Hey racist dumbf*ck can you please Google "Who is currently being indicted as a WAR CRIMINAL by the international courts?" and let me know what their ethnicity/religion is listed as? Thanks. 

 

You idiots are defining terrorism as something done by Muslims, basically, and then painting the bullseye around the arrow. 

 

@Parsad why are we letting this racist filth permeate the board? 

[cubsfan]

^^^ Easy buddy. IF you can not admit that radical Islam is causing a huge problem for Europe, you're just blind.

[DooDiligence]

1 hour ago, coc said:

Hey racist dumbf*ck can you please Google "Who is currently being indicted as a WAR CRIMINAL by the international courts?" and let me know what their ethnicity/religion is listed as? Thanks. 

 

You idiots are defining terrorism as something done by Muslims, basically, and then painting the bullseye around the arrow. 

 

@Parsad why are we letting this racist filth permeate the board? 

 

If you can't figure out who the terrorist is at the table, it's probably the evangelical christian.

 

https://www.csis.org/analysis/escalating-terrorism-problem-united-states

[Spekulatius]

 

 

4 hours ago, fareastwarriors said:

The S&P 500 Makes Up 51% of Global Stock Market Value 

 

2023

Not that bullish for the SP500, imo.

Edited Friday at 11:10 PM by Spekulatius

[TB]

5 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

 

 

Not that bullish for the SP500, imo.

The earnings estimates for SP500 in 2025 and 2026 are increasing in the double digits  +13% in 2025 and +11% in 2026. Factset is expecting 14.8% earnings growth in 2025. https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-cy-2025-earnings-preview-analysts-expect-earnings-growth-of-15

 

If the wars come to an end and the government deficit comes under control in the US; I expect more upside longer term.

 

AI can help improve productivity significantly - https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/other/openai-s-o3-model-aced-a-test-of-ai-reasoning-but-it-s-still-not-agi/ar-AA1wfITU

 

 

Edited Saturday at 04:18 AM by TB

[Spekulatius]

The stock market aside, can you do this anywhere else on the planet:

 

[TB]

 

Commercial Nuclear Fusion Power Plant commissioned

Edited Saturday at 04:27 PM by TB

[Spekulatius]

12 hours ago, TB said:

 

Commercial Nuclear Fusion Power Plant commissioned

Is the Commonwealth Fusion System upstart financing this? I hope so, because they are far away from even have a prototype. Their reactor at this time are not even energy positive yet, that years out. From there, it probably takes decades to provide a commercially viable prototype.

[TB]

53 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Is the Commonwealth Fusion System upstart financing this? I hope so, because they are far away from even have a prototype. Their reactor at this time are not even energy positive yet, that years out. From there, it probably takes decades to provide a commercially viable prototype.

Looks like they have raised the funds, definitely dreaming big  - https://cfs.energy/news-and-media/commonwealth-fusion-systems-closes-1-8-billion-series-b-round

 

 

[Spekulatius]

6 hours ago, TB said:

Looks like they have raised the funds, definitely dreaming big  - https://cfs.energy/news-and-media/commonwealth-fusion-systems-closes-1-8-billion-series-b-round

 

 

I think it’s great, but I would hate my utility company take that bet.

I think we get Natrium cooled nuclear reactors way before fusion is going to work. It’s a much easier technical problem to solve.

[Spekulatius]

WTH is this? $600M drop on Aspens economy due to Bezos and Sanchez wedding.

Maybe it’s just me, but this looks more and more like we are living in an oligarchy:

Edited 20 hours ago by Spekulatius

[TB]

The US has 40% of the world's millionaires according to wikipedia followed by Europe. Canada is also incredibly wealthy.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_number_of_millionaires

 

Edited 22 hours ago by TB

[Dalal.Holdings]

13 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Is the Commonwealth Fusion System upstart financing this? I hope so, because they are far away from even have a prototype. Their reactor at this time are not even energy positive yet, that years out. From there, it probably takes decades to provide a commercially viable prototype.

 

Fusion is just the next thing the wise investors in the USA can throw their money at. After crypto, metaverse, AI, quantum computing. Fusion is the final boss of the bubble.

[rkbabang]

7 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

WTH is this? $600M drop on Aspens economy due to Bezos and Sanchez wedding.

Maybe it’s just me, but this looks more and more like we are living in an oligarchy:

Fake news.

 

 

[TB]

1 hour ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

 

Fusion is just the next thing the wise investors in the USA can throw their money at. After crypto, metaverse, AI, quantum computing. Fusion is the final boss of the bubble.

It is important to experiment and try things, not everything will succeed but some will. From perplexity; the valuation of various public space companies is noted below, spacex is valued at 350B.

 

• Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB): $11.67 billion
• Intuitive Machines (LUNR): While the exact market cap is not provided in the sources, it is mentioned as a significant player in the space technology sector
• Sidus Space, Inc. (SIDU): $21.03 million
• Other players like Virgin Galactic, AST SpaceMobile, and Telesat are also part of this segment, but their specific market caps are not detailed in the provided sources.

 

 

[Dalal.Holdings]

8 minutes ago, TB said:

It is important to experiment and try things, not everything will succeed but some will. From perplexity; the valuation of various public space companies is noted below, spacex is valued at 350B.

 

• Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB): $11.67 billion
• Intuitive Machines (LUNR): While the exact market cap is not provided in the sources, it is mentioned as a significant player in the space technology sector
• Sidus Space, Inc. (SIDU): $21.03 million
• Other players like Virgin Galactic, AST SpaceMobile, and Telesat are also part of this segment, but their specific market caps are not detailed in the provided sources.

 

 

SpaceX is what it is because of Elon. I don’t anticipate another Elon anytime soon. The commonwealth fusion guy certainly doesn’t strike me as such.
 

When SpaceX was born, it was a tiny office of people valued at tiny amount relative to the startups today. Barely anyone knew of the firm. It had to grind hard for many years with failures along the way before it really got noticed. Not true of the “promising” startups today in AI, quantum, and now fusion. Just reeks of Y2K energy across the U.S. investment space and this thread is but one example.

 

Edited 17 hours ago by Dalal.Holdings

[changegonnacome]

On 12/21/2024 at 1:18 AM, TB said:

If the wars come to an end and the government deficit comes under control in the US; I expect more upside longer term.

 

Longer longer term maybe - but the reality is those big fat juicy government deficits are flowing right into the coffers of SPY companies....defacto fiscal stimulus in an economy at full employment........this juice is supporting corporate revenues & margins......which are underpinning the E in the PE of a market that's at historically high P/E levels....but it doesn't stop there.....the top 20% of Americans are responsible for ~40% of the total consumption in the economy.......and that same top 20% of Americans own like 87% of the equities.....wealth effects matter in the US in a very meaningful way.

 

I stand ready to be surprised........but the political math I just laid out above is quite well understood in D.C.......you shrink the deficit and its in effect austerity........D.C. penny pinching shows up in the cashflow statements of SPY.....which dings the paper net worth of the top 20%....who consume a little less as a result......deregulation and animal spirits are important....but nothing beats cash money getting pumped into the economy......maybe Trump will be a lion on fiscal spending and skillfully marshall a GOP congress with a wafer thin majority to be fiscally conservative.....I just dont see the political reality of this happening with the congressional Midterms (yes the midterms) coming up in Nov 2026 (that's basically next year!)

Edited 16 hours ago by changegonnacome

[Dalal.Holdings]

2 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Longer longer term maybe - but the reality is those big fat juicy government deficits are flowing right into the coffers of SPY companies....defacto fiscal stimulus in an economy at full employment........this juice is supporting corporate revenues & margins......which are underpinning the E in the PE of a market that's at historically high P/E levels....but it doesn't stop there.....the top 20% of Americans are responsible for ~40% of the total consumption in the economy.......and that same top 20% of Americans own like 87% of the equities.....wealth effects matter in the US in a very meaningful way.

 

I stand ready to be surprised........but the political math I just laid out above is quite well understood in D.C.......you shrink the deficit and its in effect austerity........D.C. penny pinching shows up in the cashflow statements of SPY.....which dings the paper net worth of the top 20%....who consume a little less as a result......deregulation and animal spirits are important....but nothing beats cash money getting pumped into the economy......maybe Trump will be a lion on fiscal spending and skillfully marshall a GOP congress with a wafer thin majority to be fiscally conservative.....I just dont see the political reality of this happening with the congressional Midterms (yes the midterms) coming up in Nov 2026 (that's basically next year!)

 

I agree. When we're no longer pumping out World War 2 levels of deficits, things may certainly deflate. The recent spending bill fight involving Elon/Trump/Congress is a sign of things to come.

 

Edited 14 hours ago by Dalal.Holdings

[Dinar]

1 hour ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

 

I agree. When we're no longer pumping out World War 2 levels of deficits, things may certainly deflate. The recent spending bill fight involving Elon/Trump/Congress is a sign of things to come.

 

You can largely eliminate deficit if you eliminate welfare for universities (student loans, Pell grants, research grants God knows what for), Medicaid (90MM people on Medicaid), FEMA ($500K per each person impacted by lahaina fires), etc... GDP would probably increase if people actually join the labor force from welfare rolls & sociology depts

[changegonnacome]

13 hours ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

The recent spending bill fight involving Elon/Trump/Congress is a sign of things to come.

 

Yeah - the freedom caucus + Elon have a nice bit of leverage with the Congressional margins where they are...........the fact that Trump wont be running for re-election and lets be frank couldn't care less if JD Vance or another GOP candidate is sitting in the WH in five years time or not is also a plus for doing the 'right thing' from a budget perspective....because as I outlined shrinking it from 7% to 3% as Scott Bessent has talked about.....would be quite the achievement.....and even that would only actually stabilize the debt to GDP ratio level (lets say two or three years out) at maybe ~130 or 140% of GDP on the current trajectory.

 

The reality moving forward IMO is that it isn't the politicians that are going to cut government spending programs voluntarily.....its that reality is going to come crashing in through the ceiling of congress...Yellen ran the country like an EM leading up to the election.....running the US bduget on short dated t-bills....to say nothing of the maturity profile of the stuff coming up....a bunch of US debt will need duraiton on it soon.......so debt servicing costs rising inside the federal budget as the debt rolls into higher for longer..... married to the costs of an ageing population (medicare & social security) means everything that isn't social security, defense, medicare & medicaid is in deep deep trouble.

 

Buffet isnt wrong.....when you look at the math.......the reality is the US requires spending cuts AND tax rises to fix the budgetary issues....perhaps the parties will revert to type.......the Republicans will do the spending cuts now and when they get thrown out of office.....the Democrats will do the tax rises required

[vinod1]

16 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Longer longer term maybe - but the reality is those big fat juicy government deficits are flowing right into the coffers of SPY companies....defacto fiscal stimulus in an economy at full employment........this juice is supporting corporate revenues & margins......which are underpinning the E in the PE of a market that's at historically high P/E levels....but it doesn't stop there.....the top 20% of Americans are responsible for ~40% of the total consumption in the economy.......and that same top 20% of Americans own like 87% of the equities.....wealth effects matter in the US in a very meaningful way.

 

I stand ready to be surprised........but the political math I just laid out above is quite well understood in D.C.......you shrink the deficit and its in effect austerity........D.C. penny pinching shows up in the cashflow statements of SPY.....which dings the paper net worth of the top 20%....who consume a little less as a result......deregulation and animal spirits are important....but nothing beats cash money getting pumped into the economy......maybe Trump will be a lion on fiscal spending and skillfully marshall a GOP congress with a wafer thin majority to be fiscally conservative.....I just dont see the political reality of this happening with the congressional Midterms (yes the midterms) coming up in Nov 2026 (that's basically next year!)

 

Disagree. It looks like a very compelling narrative. Look underneath at the data, and nothing can be further from the truth.

 

Profits:

Where did earnings and margins grow most rapidly? At big tech. Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook, Google, Nvidia or at other highly competitively advantaged business like Visa & Matercard, etc. These companies make up more than a third of the profits in S&P 500. This has nothing to do with deficits. Do deficits help with profits and margins at S&P companies? Yes, at the margins. But they are not close to being the main driver of profits over the last 10 years. Internet enabled a whole lot of changes that regulation was not able to keep up and gave rise to a lot of monopolies or duopolies and much less competition in the economy. The profit margin growth is concentrated to a narrow set of companies while the rest of the companies profit margins are just trending not too far from historical norms.

 

Wealth and Consumption:

The wealthy always had a much larger share of the consumption. Nothing new here. And wealth effect is not the same among this richer group. The top 10% of population is not going to spend a lot more just based on wealth effect. No they are not getting a new iPhone because S&P 50 jumped 30%. They get it if they think they want it. They do a little bit of more expensive travel, etc. But it is the middle and lower class that does spend any additional wages. 

 

Vinod