Iran - Israel - Gaza Conflict

[Xerxes]

4 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

Yet and this is the big yet that I hope helps some folks not dismiss me as some kind of anti-semite.........I recognize and support fully the State of Israel....its creation and its continuation....the Israelis are my kind of people......but that does not stop me from also identifying Israel as operating a de facto apartheid state which does not fit my or any definition of a liberal democracy. The facts just won't comport with any other definition or conclusion

 

 

I find it odd that that we live in day and age that folks need to keep reinstating that. Almost as if the society is “programmed” to shoot you down if one strays too far … 

 

it is a discussion folks, ….. you are not antisemitic for raising a point. Nor you are anti Arab for raising a counter point.. 

[Spekulatius]

You can justify anything with history especially if you go back for enough.

[cubsfan]

18 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

 

I find it odd that that we live in day and age that folks need to keep reinstating that. Almost as if the society is “programmed” to shoot you down if one strays too far … 

 

it is a discussion folks, ….. you are not antisemitic for raising a point. Nor you are anti Arab for raising a counter point.. 

 

Correct me if I am wrong - but exactly how many Democracies exist in the Middle East anyway??

 

I think it's one - Israel - out of how many countries anyway - 25/30??

 

And Israel is an apartheid state for allowing Christians & Muslims to live with them without chopping their heads off or expelling them unlike their neighbors??

 

Feel free to raise your points and correct me - and I will try not to lose my warped perspective.

 

And for the record, @changegonnacome is certainly no anti-semite - but the UN and many European governments certainly are - throw the Biden administration in that basket too. Who is more brazenly antisemitic in the good old USA than The Squad and Kamala Harris?

[Xerxes]

42 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

Correct me if I am wrong - but exactly how many Democracies exist in the Middle East anyway??

 

I think it's one - Israel - out of how many countries anyway - 25/30??

 

And Israel is an apartheid state for allowing Christians & Muslims to live with them without chopping their heads off or expelling them unlike their neighbors??

 

Feel free to raise your points and correct me - and I will try not to lose my warped perspective.

 

And for the record, @changegonnacome is certainly no anti-semite - but the UN and many European governments certainly are - throw the Biden administration in that basket too. Who is more brazenly antisemitic in the good old USA than The Squad and Kamala Harris?

my comment was a general comment. I realize now that @changegonnacome was replying to you. 
 

I have no opinion of apartheid, genocide and if Israel is one .
 

I think there is definition for both from legal matter, and either Israel (and for that matter any other middle eastern nation) meet that or don’t. 
 

I have NOT looked into it. 
 

But i do know that it has nothing to do with being democracy or not.  
 

 

Edited August 28 by Xerxes

[changegonnacome]

27 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

I find it odd that that we live in day and age that folks need to keep reinstating that. Almost as if the society is “programmed” to shoot you down if one strays too far … 

 

Yep its a time of polarization....if you arent for me, your against me type thing.....the world is wonderfully more complex place than that....but we've regressed to the most extremes of language to in effect shut down anything that might cause us even the slightest cognitive dissonance..........in the past debate, ideas seemed looser and more fluid...the overton window at a micro individual level was wider......now in the age where we get to curate our own news feeds....we shut down cognitive dissonance at the fountainhead because we can....by labelling somebody far-left or far-right......anti-semitic or racist...conspiracy theorist or whatever......its fast-food for the weary mind not interested in assimilating or assessing ideas in conflict.

[cubsfan]

The antisemitic United Nations Secretary General shows his true colors today.

 

Extends sympathy to the families of murdered hostages without any mention or condemnation of Hamas.  How convenient!

 

He can't afford to piss off his Islamic radicals.

[SharperDingaan]

What is the view now that there are nation wide general strikes in Israel? Sure it's no big deal to legally ban today's strike; but nothing prevents a new strike tomorrow, and the more days of strike, and the more times strikes are banned ... the more unstable the coalition wobbles. The Ukraine had the Orange Revolution ... and it ultimately changed the world; have to think that something similar is at risk here. 

 

https://www.aljazeera.com/gallery/2024/9/2/israelis-strike-for-gaza-deal-after-more-captives-found-dead

https://www.yahoo.com/news/israeli-labor-court-orders-strike-163640648.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orange_Revolution

 

It would seem that the issues are being forced to a head, one way or another; and by the US election date. No dog in this (other than the direction of oil prices), but one has to think that it's past time to give peace a chance. 

 

SD

Edited September 2 by SharperDingaan

[Dinar]

20 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said:

What is the view now that there are nation wide general strikes in Israel? Sure it's no big deal to legally ban today's strike; but nothing prevents a new strike tomorrow, and the more days of strike, and the more times strikes are banned ... the more unstable the coalition wobbles. The Ukraine had the Orange Revolution ... and it ultimately changed the world; have to think that something similar is at risk here. 

 

https://www.aljazeera.com/gallery/2024/9/2/israelis-strike-for-gaza-deal-after-more-captives-found-dead

https://www.yahoo.com/news/israeli-labor-court-orders-strike-163640648.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orange_Revolution

 

It would seem that the issues are being forced to a head, one way or another; and by the US election date. No dog in this (other than the direction of oil prices), but one has to think that it's past time to give peace a chance. 

 

SD

Why do you think so?  Let's say tomorrow Bibi and his crew lose the election, good riddance!  What will change?  In my opinion, nothing.  Hamas is dedicated to wiping Israel off the map, so is Hezbollah.  Say tomorrow Israel withdraws from Judea and Samaria and gives east Jerusalem to Palestinian Authority.  Within 5 years, Hamas will run West Bank, and at some point, Hezbollah & Hamas will attack from three sides.  

[SharperDingaan]

The coalition falls tomorrow, there are elections, new leadership, and an end to the war; oil prices drop like a brick.

To your point ... keep doing the same things over and over, and there very likely will be more wars. So one has to try something different; best case it results in something better, worst case it defaults back to today's outcomes. But there is no possibility of a better outcome unless one attempts it.

 

Every time there is another war, it is a roll of the dice. Even if you consistently have the mightiest armies, best intelligence services, tightest grip on your people, etc ... keep rolling the dice ... and eventually the dice will roll against you. Nobody is omnipotent forever.

 

Israel is a small country, fighting a war, and burning resources at an incredible rate; rolling general strikes will quickly bring Israel to its knees, forcing change. That change can either come the revolutionary way, or the civilised way - but it will come.

 

SD 

 

 

 

 

[Dinar]

18 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said:

The coalition falls tomorrow, there are elections, new leadership, and an end to the war; oil prices drop like a brick.

To your point ... keep doing the same things over and over, and there very likely will be more wars. So one has to try something different; best case it results in something better, worst case it defaults back to today's outcomes. But there is no possibility of a better outcome unless one attempts it.

 

Every time there is another war, it is a roll of the dice. Even if you consistently have the mightiest armies, best intelligence services, tightest grip on your people, etc ... keep rolling the dice ... and eventually the dice will roll against you. Nobody is omnipotent forever.

 

Israel is a small country, fighting a war, and burning resources at an incredible rate; rolling general strikes will quickly bring Israel to its knees, forcing change. That change can either come the revolutionary way, or the civilised way - but it will come.

 

SD 

 

 

 

 

Why do you think that the new government will end the war? It seems to me, that there is a broad consensus in Israel that Hamas and Hezbollah must be destroyed.   I agree 100% with your point on rolling the dice.   

[73 Reds]

11 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said:

The coalition falls tomorrow, there are elections, new leadership, and an end to the war; oil prices drop like a brick.

To your point ... keep doing the same things over and over, and there very likely will be more wars. So one has to try something different; best case it results in something better, worst case it defaults back to today's outcomes. But there is no possibility of a better outcome unless one attempts it.

 

Every time there is another war, it is a roll of the dice. Even if you consistently have the mightiest armies, best intelligence services, tightest grip on your people, etc ... keep rolling the dice ... and eventually the dice will roll against you. Nobody is omnipotent forever.

 

Israel is a small country, fighting a war, and burning resources at an incredible rate; rolling general strikes will quickly bring Israel to its knees, forcing change. That change can either come the revolutionary way, or the civilised way - but it will come.

 

SD 

 

 

 

 

This time Israel is trying something different - they have vowed to eliminate Hamas, whether possible or not.  Hezbollah may be next if they try similar tactics.  Israelis can strike all they want but at their core they all want the same thing - to be left alone.  If attacked, they will fight all the wars necessary to achieve that goal as long as it may take.   If nothing else, the country's short 76 year history has proven that peace is achievable even after wars with neighbors who were once arch enemies.  

[cubsfan]

There is absolutely no reason to end the war. The hostages have not been recovered/freed.

Hamas is essentially defeated: the leadership has lost complete control of their underlings.

Hamas is in chaos. This makes negotiations very uncertain and unpredictable with the leadership wiped out. 

 

All Israel has to do is exactly what they have done - destroy Hamas as an effective force and dictate terms. 

 

To do anything else would be incredibly stupid.

 

Hezbollah now knows what they are in for...

 

 

[SharperDingaan]

I hear you ... but that nation wide general strike (and likely repeats) says otherwise.

Hundreds of thousands of the civilian workforce, many of which with various connections to the IDF; all saying take the cease-fire and release the hostages; even the IDF leadership saying take the cease-fire. And now there are trails evidencing that the political stalling is getting those hostages killed. 

 

The warlords may feel threatened, but change is coming; whether they want it or not.

 

SD

 

[cubsfan]

^^ Only suckers trust Hamas. There are larger numbers of Israeli's protesting to continue.

 

Everyone knows that Hamas major condition is to have Israel evacuate the Philadelphia corridor to enable Hamas to rearm themselves. The Israelis have stopped the flow of arms to Hamas via the smuggling  tunnels which Egypt has failed or is unable to control. Without those arms, they are dead.

 

So yeah, Israel is going to agree to that - I doubt it!

[lnofeisone]

The situation in Israel is extremely nuanced. The nation is mourning the 6 hostages who were murdered, and the strikes are a direct consequence of that. Israelis want to be left alone, but they also realize that Hamas and Gaza have been left alone for a long time, and now they are left dealing with this mess. 

 

Hamas is crippled. Without Philadelphi, they got no way to really import weapons. I doubt Israel will give that up. Israel also appointed a new general to oversee Gaza. This news flew under the radar and was couched as "this was planned," but it is starting to look like Israel is getting ready for a long-term occupation until some form of coalition gov't takes over. 

 

I agree that if you roll dice long enough, eventually you'll lose. That was Israel Hizb war of 2006. This time, Israel is doing something very different. Israel is still held back by the US, UN, and very hypocritical opinions of other nations but this time they are indignant and are pushing forward. Nonsense like "All eyes on Rafah" and "No to having Israeli troops on Philadelphi" is no longer in play. Hamas doesn't have enough space, people, ways to import things to make it a combinatorics problem like Afghanistan was for USSR or the US.  At this point, Israel just needs to keep choking Hamas, and eventually, they will break.

[Spekulatius]

On 9/2/2024 at 4:31 PM, SharperDingaan said:

The coalition falls tomorrow, there are elections, new leadership, and an end to the war; oil prices drop like a brick.

To your point ... keep doing the same things over and over, and there very likely will be more wars. So one has to try something different; best case it results in something better, worst case it defaults back to today's outcomes. But there is no possibility of a better outcome unless one attempts it.

 

Every time there is another war, it is a roll of the dice. Even if you consistently have the mightiest armies, best intelligence services, tightest grip on your people, etc ... keep rolling the dice ... and eventually the dice will roll against you. Nobody is omnipotent forever.

 

Israel is a small country, fighting a war, and burning resources at an incredible rate; rolling general strikes will quickly bring Israel to its knees, forcing change. That change can either come the revolutionary way, or the civilised way - but it will come.

 

SD 

 

I don’t think much will change if Bibi loses the election and a new Israeli government is formed. A new government might take a slightly different approach but the basic directive will be the same.

 

Oil prices did not care about the outbreak of the hostilities to begin with (there is no oil there) so why would they care to much if they end?

[HubbadaPow]

On 8/28/2024 at 12:21 PM, Xerxes said:

I bought those two books in 2011. 
never got around to them. 
 

it is went too much in the details in the first third of the first book. Maybe I ll make them a 2025 project. 

I've had them for years as well, but just got the audiobooks a few weeks ago and find it much easier to power through the details while driving to and from the office.  It's one of the most interesting family businesses in history.

[Spekulatius]

Got to say, this exploding Hezbollah pager attack is genius:

Hezbollah went lower tech and distributed the pagers earlier this year because they thought they were safer and somehow Mossad compromised the supply chain and put in a small explosive in them that all went off at the same time. 

[james22]

 

[james22]

BREAKING: Walkie-Talkies Explode in Hezbollah Strongholds in Second Wave; UPDATE: Nine Dead, 300+ Injured

 

From an article yesterday:

In military matters, some tactics have effects far, far beyond the initial impact. The recent, sudden explosions of Hezbollah pagers is one such; no Hezbollah nutcase will ever again look at his pager or cellular phone again without seeing a grenade. . . .

Imagine the long-term implications of this. Hezbollah nutcases will never again feel comfortable carrying a pager or cellular phone.

 

https://redstate.com/wardclark/2024/09/17/report-mossad-intercepted-hezbollah-pager-shipment-loaded-them-with-explosives-n2179452

[cubsfan]

Amazing: Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis - the gang that can't shoot straight.

[Dinar]

39 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

Amazing: Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis - the gang that can't shoot straight.

You are missing the forest for the trees.  While Israel is busy racking up tactical victories, it is losing the war - nothing has been done about Iran's nuclear threat, Western public opinion is increasing anti-Israel, and in the next war Israel will not be able to count on weapons shipments from the US.  Israel needs to wipe out Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran's nuclear threat today, otherwise it may easily get destroyed in the next war.  Had Hezbollah attacked at the same time as Hamas, the situation could have been very different.  

[73 Reds]

3 minutes ago, Dinar said:

You are missing the forest for the trees.  While Israel is busy racking up tactical victories, it is losing the war - nothing has been done about Iran's nuclear threat, Western public opinion is increasing anti-Israel, and in the next war Israel will not be able to count on weapons shipments from the US.  Israel needs to wipe out Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran's nuclear threat today, otherwise it may easily get destroyed in the next war.  Had Hezbollah attacked at the same time as Hamas, the situation could have been very different.  

Agreed that Israel needs to wipe out all of these threats but precisely how do you propose that they do it?

[cubsfan]

54 minutes ago, Dinar said:

You are missing the forest for the trees.  While Israel is busy racking up tactical victories, it is losing the war - nothing has been done about Iran's nuclear threat, Western public opinion is increasing anti-Israel, and in the next war Israel will not be able to count on weapons shipments from the US.  Israel needs to wipe out Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran's nuclear threat today, otherwise it may easily get destroyed in the next war.  Had Hezbollah attacked at the same time as Hamas, the situation could have been very different.  

 

I agree about the nuclear threat. I don't care about Western public opinion with all it's anti-semitism. Israel will do what it has to do. If Trump is elected, the US will supply Israel with whatever it needs - now that Biden has been supply Iran with billions for terrorism.

 

The risk as I see it - Kamala wins - and then the anti-Israel administration stands behind the proHamas wing of the democrats. Not good for Israel.

 

Going to be interesting.

[Dinar]

4 hours ago, 73 Reds said:

Agreed that Israel needs to wipe out all of these threats but precisely how do you propose that they do it?

Hamas is rather easy.  Stop all water, food, etc... into Gaza, allow all, except for males between 12 and 60 to leave freely.  Males between 12 and 60 will have to go through POW camps to figure out whether they were members of Hamas in which case they should be tried as terrorists or innocent civilians, in which case they should be allowed to go to a country of their choice or into Syria.

Hezbollah - start by blocking all food and energy into Lebanon.  Then you have to fight a very bloody war, at the end divide Lebanon into northern and southern halves.  Christians get southern half, Sunnis get northern half and Shiites go to Syria; just as losers in every war.