Cryptocurrencies

[Charlie]

7 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

Buffett also doesn't like things without cash flows like Gold or Bitcoin and his DCF type analysis doesn't work on them. 

 

And despite that, both have outperformed US equities, generally, for an extended period of time. So maybe there's more to consider than just Buffett's wisdom

 

Maybe, maybe there will be a day of truth when the main supporter Trump is gone or in the next crash. We will see. 

[SharperDingaan]

Staring at charts focuses on the days supply/demand for the stock; other than being able to support a marketing 'story', what the company does is largely irrelevant. Buffet focused on DCF valuation, and waiting around until the stock eventually reached the valuation; with no cash flow, value = 0. Different tools, different purposes.

 

To invest in BTC, is to forecast changes in market supply and demand. Opportunities arising when shorter term mania produces a value markedly different to what the longer term supply/demand suggests.

 

SD

[TwoCitiesCapital]

3 hours ago, Charlie said:

 

Maybe, maybe there will be a day of truth when the main supporter Trump is gone or in the next crash. We will see. 

 

I mean, you saw what both of them did under Obama and Biden, right? And for gold, Bush before them. 

 

These aren't presidential trends. These are long-term fundamentals of the monetary system being reflected in prices.

 

 

[Charlie]

3 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

I mean, you saw what both of them did under Obama and Biden, right? And for gold, Bush before them. 

 

These aren't presidential trends. These are long-term fundamentals of the monetary system being reflected in prices.

 

Don´t stare at the charts. 

[DooDiligence]

https://www.cbs19.tv/article/news/local/texas-senate-advances-gold-bill/501-143ce992-afb1-4b6a-a41a-e6d899441da1

[Fly]

21 hours ago, DooDiligence said:

https://www.cbs19.tv/article/news/local/texas-senate-advances-gold-bill/501-143ce992-afb1-4b6a-a41a-e6d899441da1

 

Gold held in Texas Depository Vault? Dumb idea. Centralized control is what we're trying to get away from. 

Edited January 28 by Fly

[DooDiligence]

9 minutes ago, Fly said:

 

Gold held in Texas Depository Vault? Dumb idea. Centralized control is what we're trying to get away from. 

 

TBF, it is Texas.

[Dave86ch]

WEF boomers do not even understand that Bitcoin does not have a central issuer.

This is a knowledge arbitrage.

Eventually, history will teach another lesson, and the smartest will write a new chapter, positioning themselves as the rulers.

[wachtwoord]

34 minutes ago, Dave86ch said:

WEF boomers do not even understand that Bitcoin does not have a central issuer.

This is a knowledge arbitrage.

Eventually, history will teach another lesson, and the smartest will write a new chapter, positioning themselves as the rulers.

 

Yeah and did you see the condescending little fucker smile, laugh and mock while being as wrong a he could possibly be? Mind boggling how such incompetents are in such influential positions in society (central bankers are our system's central planners equivalent, yes a communistic pillar of western society).

[Milu]

2 hours ago, Dave86ch said:

WEF boomers do not even understand that Bitcoin does not have a central issuer.

This is a knowledge arbitrage.

Eventually, history will teach another lesson, and the smartest will write a new chapter, positioning themselves as the rulers.

Seeing the recent run in gold is making me more bullish on bitcoin's potential price appreciation. I've owned both over the years but ultimately settled on Bitcoin as my primary store of value asset. With gold I would only hold physical bullion but every time I considered going this route I had to deal with the bid ask spread of 2-3% which would result in a roundtrip cost of about 5-6% if you wanted to buy and sell, also have to have full trust in the dealer that they are selling you 100% gold, then have to store it somewhere, bank vault if want full security but then are paying storage costs and have small degree of counterrparty risk, or store it at my house and deal with the risk of having it stolen. For large central banks or businesses I can see the value in holding and storing physical gold but for the average individual bitcoin ticks a lot more of the boxes, it's 100% verifiable, no counterparty risk, divisible to the penny, and can be stored on a usb stick or in 24 words. The risks on this side is not losing access to coins and quantum risk. I think people will eventually come around to Bitcoin being a better method to store wealth than gold, but perhaps it will take a few decades. We have 5000 years of history vs about 17.

Edited January 28 by Milu

[wachtwoord]

Quantum risk is not really a risk unless you store your bitcoin in addresses with the 2009 standard (P2PK) or reuse addresses (when you move coins out of an address always move all and retire that address).

 

Losing access or being robbed are real threats though, but those also apply to gold.

[TwoCitiesCapital]

3 hours ago, Milu said:

Seeing the recent run in gold is making me more bullish on bitcoin's potential price appreciation. I've owned both over the years but ultimately settled on Bitcoin as my primary store of value asset.

 

Same. Historical bear markets against gold were all just a little over a year long. We're at 57 weeks right now, so I think the relative valuations are probably close to a bottom. 

 

3 hours ago, Milu said:

With gold I would only hold physical bullion but every time I considered going this route I had to deal with the bid ask spread of 2-3% which would result in a roundtrip cost of about 5-6% if you wanted to buy and sell, also have to have full trust in the dealer that they are selling you 100% gold, then have to store it somewhere, bank vault if want full security but then are paying storage costs and have small degree of counterrparty risk, or store it at my house and deal with the risk of having it stolen.

 

+1 

 

Once I understood the Bitcoin technology use cases, the superiority of its ease of validating/using/carrying/securing seemed obvious. 

 

3 hours ago, Milu said:

For large central banks or businesses I can see the value in holding and storing physical gold but for the average individual bitcoin ticks a lot more of the boxes, it's 100% verifiable, no counterparty risk, divisible to the penny, and can be stored on a usb stick or in 24 words. The risks on this side is not losing access to coins and quantum risk. I think people will eventually come around to Bitcoin being a better method to store wealth than gold, but perhaps it will take a few decades. We have 5000 years of history vs about 17.

 

I think even Central banks will come around. There just ISNT much BTC free float. When you get the first major country seriously acquiring? Like a China, India, US, Japan, etc? Game over. Those flows into the current free float explode the market cap.

 

Anyone already owning BTC is in a good spot. Everyone else is going to scramble to catch it while watching their reserves devalue into oblivion on a relative basis. 

 

If you thought the silver bull market didn't really let anyone in.....just wait. 

[Milu]

19 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

Anyone already owning BTC is in a good spot. Everyone else is going to scramble to catch it while watching their reserves devalue into oblivion on a relative basis. 

 

If you thought the silver bull market didn't really let anyone in.....just wait. 

I think you might be right, just might take longer than expected before this point comes, could end up playing out with Bitcoin going nowhere for 5-10 years and then in the space of a single year exploding up 500%. Many of the bulls might have sold up shop by that stage and then at the moment everybody has given up, boom. Classic market punishment.

Edited January 28 by Milu

[Fly]

12 minutes ago, Milu said:

I think you might be right, just might take longer than expected before this point comes, could end up playing out with Bitcoin going nowhere for 5-10 years and then in the space of a single year exploding up 500%. Many of the bulls might have sold up shop by that stage and then at the moment everybody has given up, boom. Classic market punishment.

 

I think this is likely as well. Underperformance for a full cycle or two will cause the BTC Nerds and speculator crowd to exit. Meanwhile the BTC hippies stay the course, build, and participate. 
 

 

[SharperDingaan]

Like it or not, gold is the comparative to BTC, and that isn't going to change over the foreseeable future. It is just different tools for different purposes.

 

Nothing prevents one from owning gold stocks/warrants vs bullion, and swapping back into BTC as opportunities present. The end game is simply more protection; how one gets there depends upon the times.

 

The reality is that the best defence against disruption is bridgeheads built and funded ahead of time; each self contained so that contagion cannot spread. Could be relationships, real estate, bullion, BTC, goods, etc, etc. Realise that 1) while some wealth will get expropriated, you will still be alive, free, and able to start again; 2) there is a lot more value to losing wealth via a bribe, vs expropriation.

 

You can take your BTC with you (spread over multiple wallets); not so much your gold 

 

SD

Edited January 28 by SharperDingaan

[Dave86ch]

23 hours ago, wachtwoord said:

 

Yeah and did you see the condescending little fucker smile, laugh and mock while being as wrong a he could possibly be? Mind boggling how such incompetents are in such influential positions in society (central bankers are our system's central planners equivalent, yes a communistic pillar of western society).

 

I am completely fine with skepticism and with people who choose to stay away from Bitcoin.

What I see as a symptom of something deeper that will eventually unwind is a group of people who are too lazy to do basic homework and therefore fail to produce real critiques.

When institutional representatives display this kind of intellectual laziness, it becomes clear to me that:

a) the current system is deeply broken

b) capable individuals will increasingly influence and build infrastructure to shape the future for their own advantage.

 

The sheer fact that Davos was filled with Bitcoin advocates, with fireside discussions happening during the conference, and that Ray Dalio cited Bitcoin multiple times, as did Aswath Damodaran, shows that the genie is out of the bottle.

You can suppress the price,

But mindshare continues to build, and the smartest people are working on it relentlessly.

Edited January 29 by Dave86ch

[Dalal.Holdings]

 

 

 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

1 minute ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

 

 

Just like TIPS went down in 2022. There are multiple risk factors/components to BTCs price. 

 

Over the long-term, I expect debasement to dominate. But in the meantime, it's an emerging technology that requires positive sentiment and continued network growth - both struggle when people struggle. 

 

Thank your lucky stars and stack more sats if you can

[Dalal.Holdings]

3 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

it's an emerging technology that requires positive sentiment and continued network growth - both struggle when people struggle. 

 

 

It's an "emerging technology" that turned 17 years old. In the tech world, that's geriatric.

 

Yes, it requires "positive sentiment" like all Greater Fool assets

 

What's actually happened is people have moved on: to AI, to Gold, Silver, etc. But it's mostly AI. Because AI actually has some utility to society. AI also soaks up lots of capital.

[Dalal.Holdings]

I made it in meme form so it's easier to understand:

 

[Gregmal]

Nice, so some loser on Twitter is doing a victory lap because something that over the past 10-15 years that has gone from $100 to a high of $120,000 and now sits at $85,000 has underperformed other stuff for 6 months....perhaps we do the 15 year chart for BTC/Gold/Silver? Sounds like one of those losers who's also been short Tesla "just waiting" for the market to get that its overvalued on a PE basis....

 

Edited January 29 by Gregmal

[Dalal.Holdings]

The guy on Twitter is pointing out the fact the Dollar/DXY is getting killed and Gold is ripping while Bitcoin (priced in USD) is getting creamed--hence poking a major hole in the "digital gold" "protection against fiat/inflation" thesis for Bitcoin that has been touted by its proponents since its inception. It is actually a spot on observation.

[Milu]

1 hour ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

Just like TIPS went down in 2022. There are multiple risk factors/components to BTCs price. 

 

Over the long-term, I expect debasement to dominate. But in the meantime, it's an emerging technology that requires positive sentiment and continued network growth - both struggle when people struggle. 

 

Thank your lucky stars and stack more sats if you can

Ya lots of people taking victory laps based on short term fluctuations. 6 months is nothing in terms of bitcoins acceptance or not as a store of value or some perfect hedge on inflation or debasement. Long term (5 year minimum) it has and I expect it will continue to be more than a satisfactory offset to any debasement. Gold was basically ignored from an about 2011 to 2023, now everybody loves it. The market has a very short memory. 

[Dalal.Holdings]

11 minutes ago, Milu said:

Ya lots of people taking victory laps based on short term fluctuations. 6 months is nothing in terms of bitcoins acceptance or not as a store of value or some perfect hedge on inflation or debasement. Long term (5 year minimum) it has and I expect it will continue to be more than a satisfactory offset to any debasement. Gold was basically ignored from an about 2011 to 2023, now everybody loves it. The market has a very short memory. 

 

There was pretty much no inflation from 2009 to 2021. During this period, Gold did nothing. Which makes sense if it's an "inflation hedge". During this period, Bitcoin exploded which has nothing to do with inflation because USD inflation was very low during this period.

 

Gold went up during the 2022 Biden era inflation. Now it goes up when the Dollar trades down versus other currencies. Meanwhile. Bitcoin goes down and has been down 17% the past year while DXY is down 11% as well. Gold is up a lot in that period.

 

If you're going to ask which one seems more correlated to inflation/fiat devaluation, it's gold. Bitcoin seems way more correlated with QQQ, but even that's not perfect as it's down the past year (while QQQ is up 20%). In fact, this correlation might be breaking because I think tech bros have moved on from crypto and SaaS to AI.

 

Edited January 29 by Dalal.Holdings

[gfp]

People are using stablecoins to do some of the things they used to use Bitcoin to do.  Makes sense if you are primarily interested in the utility for a specific purpose and don't desire price volatility.

 

I will post this chart again, because the price behavior is following the previous analog to a T so far.  The price of Bitcoin is selling off because it looks identical to the same bear flag in 2022.