Cryptocurrencies

[SharperDingaan]

Have to think that it is only a matter of time until BTC is back around the USD 90-100K mark again  Q3 2025 earnings are not going to be good, and liquidity will be draining from the crypto eco-structure to meet demands elsewhere. 

 

SD  

[SharperDingaan]

First ripples have begun to lap ....  market liquidity has begun draining, BTC hasn't been able to hold its price levels, Mt Gox is coming up on its distribution, stresses are piling up.

 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/stock-market-futures-us-regional-banks-9.6942130

 

"Pockets of the U.S. banking sector including regional banks have given the market cause for concern," said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

 

"What we see in the banks selling off overnight in the U.S., Asia wakes up to it, Europe wakes up to it and so it spreads," said TD Securities head of global macro strategy James Rossiter.

 

"Despite growing hopes of further rate cuts this year, attention is turning to the underlying health of the economy, as emerging credit losses amongst America's regional banks raised further questions about lending practices," said Derren Nathan, head of equity research, Hargreaves Lansdown. Analysts say that any cracks in credit on Wall Street are likely to spill over into other areas of the financial sector. Even more so, after Q32025 earnings report highlighting tariff impacts.

 

Earlier this week, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said this about credit markets: "When you see one cockroach, there are probably more, and so everyone should be forewarned."

 

SD

 

 

Edited October 17, 2025 by SharperDingaan

[SharperDingaan]

A little quantification .....  https://www.worldcoinindex.com/news/mt-gox-wallets-stir-ahead-of-october-31-deadline-as-3-8b-bitcoin-repayment-looms

 

Analysts warn that the market’s ability to absorb such a large amount [3.8 Billion] is uncertain, especially given weaker institutional demand. “Last year, around 80% of the German government’s Bitcoin liquidation went through OTC channels like Coinbase Prime,” one market observer noted. “That kind of deep liquidity isn’t as strong right now.”

 

The timing and nature of the latest Mt. Gox wallet movements have raised eyebrows. In past repayment phases, the trustee conducted small test transfers before large-scale distributions — a pattern that appears to be repeating.

 

“After seven months, we’re seeing the same kind of wallet pings as before previous payouts,” said one blockchain researcher. “It’s not confirmed that repayments are imminent, but the coincidence is too strong to ignore.”

 

As Bitcoin markets continue to trade under macro uncertainty and thinning liquidity, any significant Mt. Gox-driven release could add fuel to an already jittery environment. Whether the trustee opts for another delay or proceeds with repayments, October 31 now marks a pivotal moment for Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory.

 

Have to think that the best outcome is a direct transfer into a CB treasury, followed by a slow bleed out into various MicroStrategy 2.0's across the world; all of which requires liquidity. Liquidity drains, the cost goes up, BTC falls, and gravity takes over ....

 

SD  

[TwoCitiesCapital]

3 hours ago, SharperDingaan said:

Have to think that the best outcome is a direct transfer into a CB treasury, followed by a slow bleed out into various MicroStrategy 2.0's across the world; all of which requires liquidity. Liquidity drains, the cost goes up, BTC falls, and gravity takes over ....

 

SD  

 

Why would a central bank want to protect BTCs price by buying it and slowly selling it over time vs letting Mt God just distribute and receivers sell? 

 

Also, why would receivers sell? I feel that most who wanted to sell already got out of the Mt Gox claims and sold to inst'l holder with long term time horizons wanting the BTC at a discount? Why would those entities now be compelled to sell? 

[SharperDingaan]

On 10/17/2025 at 6:39 PM, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

Why would a central bank want to protect BTCs price by buying it and slowly selling it over time vs letting Mt God just distribute and receivers sell? 

 

Also, why would receivers sell? I feel that most who wanted to sell already got out of the Mt Gox claims and sold to inst'l holder with long term time horizons wanting the BTC at a discount? Why would those entities now be compelled to sell? 

 

Imagine a CB that would like to use a BTC backed debt instrument ... not too many places you can get this much BTC all at once. The CB receiver not actually selling the BTC, but reducing their beneficial interest via encumbrance; challenged gold reserves pushing towards a BTC/Gold substitution at some peg.

 

Fat Tony would hold a lot of out-of-the-money puts, let the liquidation talk drive down price, collect on the puts and load up on calls. Pressure the crypto eco-system nodes for concessions, do a little IPO packaging, and announce a CB purchase. Everybody hails the chief, supports the IPO (to get their concessions back), and BTC climbs to a year-end high. Both the market, and the mafiosi, do very well 

 

We just find that 'Greed Works' (Wall Street) is more reliable than 'In God We Trust'. To make real money, BTC needs to convincingly fall through the USD 100K level .. stay there for a while, and be followed by a series of tweets. When incentives are aligned; the now absence of press scrutiny, is just a bonus.

 

Coat-tail at your own risk.

 

SD

 

 

Edited November 17, 2025 by SharperDingaan

[dwy000]

11 hours ago, SharperDingaan said:

 

Imagine a CB that would like to use a BTC backed debt instrument ... not too many places you can get this much BTC all at once. The CB receiver not actually selling the BTC, but reducing their beneficial interest via encumbrance; challenged gold reserves pushing towards a BTC/Gold substitution at some peg.

 

Fat Tony would hold a lot of out-of-the-money puts, let the liquidation talk drive down price, collect on the puts and load up on calls. Pressure the crypto eco-system nodes for concessions, do a little IPO packaging, and announce a CB purchase. Everybody hails the chief, supports the IPO (to get their concessions back), and BTC climbs to a year-end high. Both the market, and the mafiosi, do very well 

 

We just find that 'Greed Works' (Wall Street) is more reliable than 'In God We Trust'. To make real money, BTC needs to convincingly fall through the USD 100K level .. stay there for a while, and be followed by a series of tweets. When incentives are aligned; the now absence of press scrutiny, is just a bonus.

 

Coat-tail at your own risk.

 

SD

 

 

 

 

    

 

SD

 

 

I'm not sure any of that would work.  Even if a CB wanted to issue BTC backed debt you still have to find buyers for that debt which is equivalent to finding buyers for the BTC so it wouldnt resolve the overhang.  Also not sure what it accomplishes for the CB because they not only need to raise the cash to buy the BTC in the first place but are now paying real interest on the debt but the BTC doesnt generate any income.  

 

If u think this is a one time overhang of liquidity then you can just play the options anyways but there's nothing suggesting the price will recover down the road. 

[SharperDingaan]

Think a debt restructuring, pushing out BTC backed debt; long been an expectation for quite some time.

Think a BTC/Gold standard at X:1. BTC backed debt exchangeable into either BTC or gold.

Think seigniorage as the funds raiser, the lower BTC is, the less required.  https://ca.search.yahoo.com/search?fr=mcafee&type=E210CA1494G0&p=seigniorage

 

Greed works.

 

SD

 

[dwy000]

6 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said:

Think a debt restructuring, pushing out BTC backed debt; long been an expectation for quite some time.

Think a BTC/Gold standard at X:1. BTC backed debt exchangeable into either BTC or gold.

Think seigniorage as the funds raiser, the lower BTC is, the less required.  https://ca.search.yahoo.com/search?fr=mcafee&type=E210CA1494G0&p=seigniorage

 

Greed works.

 

SD

 

This feels like something crypto people are hoping will happen to support their investment rather than a realistic outcome. It doesnt solve anything for anyone except the crypto investor. 

[SharperDingaan]

1 hour ago, dwy000 said:

This feels like something crypto people are hoping will happen to support their investment rather than a realistic outcome. It doesnt solve anything for anyone except the crypto investor. 

 

No big deal, to each his own. We're just with Fat Tony, greed doesn't need to solve anything .... it just has to make the right people richer.

 

SD

 

Edited October 18, 2025 by SharperDingaan

[TwoCitiesCapital]

On 11/20/2024 at 10:17 AM, TwoCitiesCapital said:

Re: the cyclicality and predictability of crypto 

 

Tim Peterson has been posting and updating this chart for a few months now 

 

So far has been amazingly accurate at predicting current price movements, and when they occur, by analyzing the average of prior cycles. 

 

Its hard for me to imagine what kind of capital requirement are needed to flow into the industry to get to $500-600k this cycle, but maybe it plays out the same way again. 

 

Watch out for that mid-cycle shake out though. That 50%-like drawdown is gonna be a doozy

 

 Bitcoin dramatically underperforming prior bull market trends, but still within the two-year trend. We may still see $150-160k by year end despite an incredibly muted post-halving year/October. 

 

Edited October 30, 2025 by TwoCitiesCapital

[Fly]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mt-gox-delays-creditor-repayments-141716511.html

[TwoCitiesCapital]

On 10/30/2025 at 11:10 AM, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

 Bitcoin dramatically underperforming prior bull market trends, but still within the two-year trend. We may still see $150-160k by year end despite an incredibly muted post-halving year/October. 

 

 

Can you imagine where BTC would be if all the BTC Treasury companies hadn't sopped up the capital? 

 

Every share issuance wasn't 100% interested - and then you have to minus  liquidity for dividends/interest, investment banking fees, etc. Every dollar in MSTR and others yielded significantly less than $1 moving into BTC. 

 

Had all of that capital simply flowed to BTC at NAV, bought it and held, this probably wouldn't be the weakest bull market/weakest post-halving year in history. But retail had to talk themselves into how paying 4x for the open market price of an asset made sense and now we suffer the consequences of that capital being eviscerated as the Treasury companies themselves have cratered. 

 

Edited November 6, 2025 by TwoCitiesCapital

[SharperDingaan]

The Mount Gox bankruptcy distribution gets deferred a year from Oct 31, 2025 to Oct 31, 2026, the US Fed quietly injects 125 billion into the financial system at about the same time (as cash is not going out via wages during the stoppage?)..... yet BTC still tips < USD 100K?

 

https://www.boccadutri.com/mtgox-refund-for-crypto-investors/

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/125-billion-in-5-days-fed-quietly-injects-125-billion-into-u-s-banks-whats-going-on/articleshow/125092745.cms

 

Have to think that some of those much talked about state treasury BTC investments are being forceably sold down to raise the cash needed to pay for emergency services.  Also have to think that within the banking system, so many T-Bills are currently being sold/not-rolled to raise cash to pay bills; that without the fed bill purchases (cash injection) .... interest rates would be a lot higher.

 

Longer the shutdown goes ... the sooner BTC again trades < 100K 

 

SD 

 

 

[Dave86ch]

12 hours ago, SharperDingaan said:

The Mount Gox bankruptcy distribution gets deferred a year from Oct 31, 2025 to Oct 31, 2026, the US Fed quietly injects 125 billion into the financial system at about the same time (as cash is not going out via wages during the stoppage?)..... yet BTC still tips < USD 100K?

 

https://www.boccadutri.com/mtgox-refund-for-crypto-investors/

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/125-billion-in-5-days-fed-quietly-injects-125-billion-into-u-s-banks-whats-going-on/articleshow/125092745.cms

 

Have to think that some of those much talked about state treasury BTC investments are being forceably sold down to raise the cash needed to pay for emergency services.  Also have to think that within the banking system, so many T-Bills are currently being sold/not-rolled to raise cash to pay bills; that without the fed bill purchases (cash injection) .... interest rates would be a lot higher.

 

Longer the shutdown goes ... the sooner BTC again trades < 100K 

 

SD 

 

 

I like your comments, @SharperDingaan.

You share many valuable insights. What’s your long-term thesis on BTC?

[SharperDingaan]

Current pricing is an anomaly, resulting from stressed liquidity. Given that most government spending (G) is on people, who spend the cash received on paying bills ....  when there's NO cash coming in, investments/savings get sold down. Government or people, rents/leases/mortgages/loan payments still have to be paid as they become due. Like it or not, sub 100K/BTC is a target ... a magnet dragging price lower, and a floor dragging price up.

 

BTC at 150K+ modelled rising demand against a progressively limited and fixed supply. The sea of various stable coin has spread the demand over a much bigger supply ... so 150K is not going to happen until there is another game changer; halving, CB backed digital dollar, etc. Periodic dumps (Mt Gox distribution), and less strategic buying (MSTR), biasing prices down until something happens.

 

Canada has just released the implementation rules around stable coin; one has to assume that most other CB's will take a similar approach. The big use will be a CB putting up a leveraged BTC holding against long-term debt via a stable coin; either to restructure/refinance existing debt (USD) to reduce interest costs, or for debt financed new generational infrastructure investment (Canada, Germany) that both protects investors against potential inflation, and lowers coupon interest. The smaller use will be widespread tokenisation of assets and liabilities. 

 

When the BTC standard becomes the digital gold standard we will be at the 150K+. Unlikely in the short term. Different story in the medium term, as time is running out on Trump.

 

SD  

 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

So when BTC becomes digital gold used to spend/collateralize the digital economy, it's market capitalization will only be $3 trillion vs gold approaching $30 trillion? 

[SharperDingaan]

39 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

So when BTC becomes digital gold used to spend/collateralize the digital economy, it's market capitalization will only be $3 trillion vs gold approaching $30 trillion? 

 

Sadly   

 

It would seem the US government shutdown ended today, so it will also be some time yet before BTC again tests the 100K level. Useful to think of the stable coin digital gold as a Collateralized Debt Obligation, version 2.0. Everything kosher until someone wants the BTC instead of the debt; and the higher the leverage, the more incentive the CB has to buy/sell paper BTC to force the BTC price in the right direction. What could possibly go wrong  

 

SD

Edited November 10, 2025 by SharperDingaan

[Dave86ch]

15 hours ago, SharperDingaan said:

 

Sadly   

 

It would seem the US government shutdown ended today, so it will also be some time yet before BTC again tests the 100K level. Useful to think of the stable coin digital gold as a Collateralized Debt Obligation, version 2.0. Everything kosher until someone wants the BTC instead of the debt; and the higher the leverage, the more incentive the CB has to buy/sell paper BTC to force the BTC price in the right direction. What could possibly go wrong  

 

SD

So, do you think 150K is a target for the next five years?

Do you think Bitcoin will have a role as a form of money in the long-term future?

 

Clearly, fiat currencies are devaluing quickly, and the Trump family seems to be betting on Bitcoin through their companies.

Stablecoins pegged to a more native digital form of money appear inevitable.

 

Edited November 11, 2025 by Dave86ch

[Milu]

Now that Microstategy is finally approaching mnav of 1 I might actually take the plunge and buy some, could never understand the logic behind the high mnav which is why I just stuck with bitcoin. Having the option of MSTR without the premium gives me some more bitcoin options in pension etc which doesn't have access to the US ETFs. 

[SharperDingaan]

6 hours ago, Dave86ch said:

So, do you think 150K is a target for the next five years?

Do you think Bitcoin will have a role as a form of money in the long-term future?

 

Clearly, fiat currencies are devaluing quickly, and the Trump family seems to be betting on Bitcoin through their companies.

Stablecoins pegged to a more native digital form of money appear inevitable.

 

 

At the present price of USD 104,375, USD 150,000 in 5 years is a CAGR of 7.52%; not very high. Highly likely that BTC either takes less than 5 years to reach USD 150,000, or is a lot higher than USD 150,000 in 5 years. Of course the CAGR doesn't mean straight line appreciation, but it does point strongly to catalyst sensitivity. Most would expect a higher future price as the institutional use changes; but how high is just a guess.

 

BTC will always be an anonymous and secure form of money, moving between wallets; but someone always knows who you are ... 'cause they issued your wallet. BTC alone, just facilitates anonymous live time transaction settlement, with limited identity .... and is essentially a digital version of the Swiss Bank Account 

 

We have the Gold standard 'cause gold is rare; we will have the BTC standard for similar reasons. The mystery is how that eventually manifests .... the token approach of the eYuan run on Bank of China servers, or the leveraged stable-coin approach where the BTC collateral is held at the central bank? Evolution points to a joint CB collateral depository, and the resultant coin as the worlds reserve currency. Essentially, the collaborative central bank Special Drawing Right (SDR) version 5.0.  

 

BTC owned by institutions, and everyone else owning either stable-coin, or native coin (Ether, etc.), dependent upon the owners application. Today's MSTR's becoming tomorrows public BTC depository trusts. 

 

Should it come to pass ... BTC has a very high price, impossible to predict.

 

SD 

[Fly]

10 hours ago, SharperDingaan said:

BTC will always be an anonymous and secure form of money, moving between wallets; but someone always knows who you are ... 'cause they issued your wallet. BTC alone, just facilitates anonymous live time transaction settlement, with limited identity .... and is essentially a digital version of the Swiss Bank Account 

 

 

 

Just to clarify I can create my own wallet without anyone knowing who it belongs to. I can meet you in person to exchange some gold coins for your BTC, transfer happens and BTC goes into my wallet. Pretty damned anonymous since no names are necessary. 

 

At some point I think P2P will become more popular again and anonymity will increase for the average BTC user. But that is a few cycles away. 

[SharperDingaan]

On 11/11/2025 at 8:37 PM, Fly said:

 

Just to clarify I can create my own wallet without anyone knowing who it belongs to. I can meet you in person to exchange some gold coins for your BTC, transfer happens and BTC goes into my wallet. Pretty damned anonymous since no names are necessary. 

 

Somebody sold you access to the platform/tools used to create the wallet. Your activity is on their server. That somebody can track the ID used to the wallet created, only the transactions in/out of the wallet are anonymous. Of course the ID used might have been false .... but even that has limitations.

 

Meeting in a dark back alley to exchange gold/cash also doesn't work as nothing prevents a video/audio recording of the transaction from afar, and there is a need to cross the physical/digital interface. Receiving the BTC left a trail from the sellers wallet to the buyers wallet. 

 

SD 

Edited November 13, 2025 by SharperDingaan

[alxcii]

There is no privacy with BTC - I think many are finally waking up to this and that is why ZEC has caught a bid recently. The Winklevii just seeded a ZEC DAT: https://www.prnewswire.com/in/news-releases/leap-therapeutics-rebrands-as-cypherpunk-expands-leadership-team-to-drive-new-zcash-treasury-strategy-302612543.html
 

ZEC is encrypted BTC. Thesis here:
 

[Fly]

2 hours ago, SharperDingaan said:

 

Somebody sold you access to the platform/tools used to create the wallet. Your activity is on their server. That somebody can track the ID used to the wallet created, only the transactions in/out of the wallet are anonymous. Of course the ID used might have been false .... but even that has limitations.

 

Agreed meeting in a dark back alley to exchange gold/cash also doesn't work as nothing prevents a video/audio recording of the transaction from afar, and there is a need to cross the physical/digital interface. Receiving the BTC left a trail from the sellers wallet to the buyers wallet. 

 

SD 

 

https://github.com/iancoleman/bip39

 

Run this offline and create your own BTC address. There is no way to connect the wallet address created and my download. 

 

You can even use dice to create an address.

 

Is it easier to load coinbase.com and sign up for an account? Sure. But anonymity is possible with some extra work. 

Edited November 12, 2025 by Fly

[SharperDingaan]

On 11/12/2025 at 11:01 AM, Fly said:

 

https://github.com/iancoleman/bip39

 

Run this offline and create your own BTC address. There is no way to connect the wallet address created and my download. 

 

You can even use dice to create an address.

 

Is it easier to load coinbase.com and sign up for an account? Sure. But anonymity is possible with some extra work. 

 

Agreed it's possible to create a wallet on your own. Point here is that you used a platform (github.com) to get the tool, and there will be a server record of the downloaded bip39 code to the IP address. Should there also be an on-ramp registration somewhere ... a name is traceable to that IP address.

 

Agreed it's possible to circumvent discovery, but that isn't most people. For most people, anonymity rests on an anonymous live-time transaction, continuous reset of once/done public ID's, dilution within a large and growing number of total wallets, no pledging against the holding, few/no wallet transactions over a long period of time, and wallet creation by someone else who is now dead. Thereafter; use of the account, similar to use of a burner phone.  

 

The more you use, or pledge against your wallet, the less anonymity you have.

Not a popular view 

 

SD