Cryptocurrencies

[SharperDingaan]

There is a reason why European CBs are moving their gold out of the US. Most of it via derivatives taking possession of US holdings in those CBs outside of the US.

 

The expectation is that one night there is tweet that both closes the gold window, restructures US debt, and imposes capital controls. Of course, if you were both proactive and on the right side of it ... you could do very well.

 

German friends tell that the early days of Nazi Germany provide some examples. Not about to ignore them when the red flags go up!

 

SD

 

[Paarslaars]

10 hours ago, sleepydragon said:

Gosh, i am studying metaplanet. So they sell puts on bitcoins, and they sell stocks (plus 0 interest debt, maybe it’s a convert) to fund bitcoin purchases.

this is insane! Maybe i shall do this on my brk positions..

 

anyway, one question: if bitcoins just keep going up, or say it always bounce up above the strike of the puts sold by metaplanet, that could be a problem? 
 

it does seem metaplanet’s strategy is a bit smarter than MSTR, because it harvests the volatility of bitcoin. It’s actually a bit more conservative? Am i right?

 

 

 

Why would it be a problem? If the puts you sell stay above the strike, you collect the premium and do it again?

Though most of their funds come from moving strike warrants they sell to EVO fund.

 

This guy posts a bunch of details on how the moving strike warrants work and how this incentivises EVO fund to sell during certain periods (and suppress the stock).

 

8 hours ago, sleepydragon said:

what does this means for GLD?

are you saying this is bullish for crypto or gold? Thanks!

 

I would assume both...

 

Edited July 2, 2025 by Paarslaars

[Dave86ch]

16 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

I saw a stat the other day that more than 50% of tether issuance is now on Tron (another platform - an ETH competitor). 

 

Just because stablecoins "win" doesn't mean they'll be on ETH. You need stablecoins AND ETH to win for ETH to do well and I'm not certain that is going to happen. 

Lightning Labs released Taproot Assets v0.6, which streamlines how stablecoins can be issued and transferred via the Lightning Network, it adds group_key identifiers.

 

Tether is now bringing USDT to Bitcoin, both on-chain and over Lightning using that protocol.

 

Because traditional blockchains require every node to maintain full asset state, Lightning becomes the only practical scalable solution for high-volume stablecoin payments.

Edited July 2, 2025 by Dave86ch

[Dave86ch]

10 hours ago, SharperDingaan said:

There is a reason why European CBs are moving their gold out of the US. Most of it via derivatives taking possession of US holdings in those CBs outside of the US.

 

The expectation is that one night there is tweet that both closes the gold window, restructures US debt, and imposes capital controls. Of course, if you were both proactive and on the right side of it ... you could do very well.

 

German friends tell that the early days of Nazi Germany provide some examples. Not about to ignore them when the red flags go up!

 

SD

 

With Bitcoin, you directly hold hard monetary value, no intermediary required, backing an infinitely flexible payment ecosystem: Lightning, Cashu, Ark, and more. It’s fully verifiable via your own node, so you don’t need any external scanner or service.

 

You can carry your seed anywhere, manage your funds from any internet-connected terminal, and open private Lightning channels for payments all by yourself.

 

[SharperDingaan]

Keep in mind the purpose of the BTC holding. To move capital - single account, single funding transaction, multiple staggered sales to pay for purchases, and close. To participate in appreciation a BTC-ETF via an account with a major bank that will be restricted under capital controls. Hence, gains moved off the table via calls and an  assignment of the underlying as either bullion outside of the US or as saleable cargo for disposal elsewhere.

 

Too big for us, but often a portion of an oil cargo on one of the shadow fleets. Bribes substituting for duties, taxes, etc. Cargos loading at sea.

 

SD

 

Edited July 2, 2025 by SharperDingaan

[Paarslaars]

BMNR +3000% in 5 days... 

[sleepydragon]

14 minutes ago, Paarslaars said:

BMNR +3000% in 5 days... 

insane

[sleepydragon]

Anybody has opinions on Hut 8?

 

they are spinning out /carving out American Bitcoin, which is going to 80% owned by Hut, 20% owned by Eric Trump, and about 2% owned by existing shareholders of GRYP.

GRYP now have mktcap of close to 100M after went up 7x during the last 3 months, on this news. 100m gives an implied valuation of the new company of $5bn, and Hut’s current mktcap is $2.5bn despite have 80% ownership.

 

What I found interesting is that , when the American Bitcoin starts trading, the only float trading is the 2% shares of the GRYP shareholders, so i think that will be what the new company going to be trade at , which means $5bn mktcap as of yesterday’s GRYP.

 

so, it seems a pretty good deal to buy HUT? Certainly, on the other hand, GRYP probably shouldn’t trade at 100m mktcap , because it seems $5bn mktcap for the company doesn’t seem make sense. Yet, to quote my wife, what I found don't make sense always go up, a lot!

 

 

Edited July 4, 2025 by sleepydragon

[sleepydragon]

What does experts here think about Ethereum vs Bitcoins? It seems with Circle IPO, stablecoins will grow more, and Tom Lee has a good point that that may create more demand for Ethereum. In addition, the ether spot ETFs are coming. With BMNR/SBET/BTBT trying to become the MSTR of bitcoins, these seem a good bet? On the other hand, MSTR is trading an very high valuation(though maybe not as high as BMNR on mktcap/nav), and bitcoins have had a very good run.

 

 

[Fly]

2 hours ago, sleepydragon said:

What does experts here think about Ethereum vs Bitcoins? It seems with Circle IPO, stablecoins will grow more, and Tom Lee has a good point that that may create more demand for Ethereum. In addition, the ether spot ETFs are coming. With BMNR/SBET/BTBT trying to become the MSTR of bitcoins, these seem a good bet? On the other hand, MSTR is trading an very high valuation(though maybe not as high as BMNR on mktcap/nav), and bitcoins have had a very good run.

 

 

 

Stablecoins are appealing to the USGov since it can prop up Treasury demand. Whether it accomplishes that or not is irrelevant, stablecoins are going to be pushed hard this cycle and likely to wind up as a backdoor to CBDCs in the future. 

Ethereum is a flawed platform, and not the only way stablecoins can flow around the world. I would argue that a decentralized platform is the most desirable way to accomplish this, as Tether has mentioned:

 

https://tether.io/news/tether-brings-usdt-to-bitcoins-lightning-network-ushering-in-a-new-era-of-unstoppable-technology/

 

Tom Lee, always good for some sound bites, but just wants to pump everything. I personally have no interest in the BMNR-types, and I will take it a step further saying I have very little interest even in the BTC based MSTR-types. I believe treasury companies will be this cycle's version of shitcoins we saw in previous cycles, or lending out customer deposits in the last cycle. It will come crumbling down for many companies that over leverage and likely to cause typical bear market drawdowns for BTC. 

Edited July 6, 2025 by Fly

[Dave86ch]

14 hours ago, sleepydragon said:

What does experts here think about Ethereum vs Bitcoins? It seems with Circle IPO, stablecoins will grow more, and Tom Lee has a good point that that may create more demand for Ethereum. In addition, the ether spot ETFs are coming. With BMNR/SBET/BTBT trying to become the MSTR of bitcoins, these seem a good bet? On the other hand, MSTR is trading an very high valuation(though maybe not as high as BMNR on mktcap/nav), and bitcoins have had a very good run.

 

 

A Turing-complete virtual machine like Ethereum's is too prone to misuse, bugs, and manipulation of token dynamics to become a trustworthy asset for long-term balance.

 

Ethereum functions as a global state machine, attempting to scale general computation and token logic directly on-chain. This increases complexity and introduces systemic and coordination risks.

 

Bitcoin, by contrast, is architected for simplicity and resilience. Its UTXO-based model, limited scripting language, and lack of Turing completeness allow it to scale trust via layered protocols like the Lightning Network, not by bloating the base layer.

 

Bitcoin is secured by the most extensive and decentralized proof-of-work network ever deployed, anchored in physical thermodynamic reality. This aligns incentives using real-world energy costs, creating a monetary system that is resistant to centralization and manipulation.

 

It makes far more sense to own Bitcoin, issue bonds on top of it, and rent out inbound Lightning liquidity, building yield and financial infrastructure without compromising on trust, decentralization, or monetary integrity.

 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

22 hours ago, sleepydragon said:

What does experts here think about Ethereum vs Bitcoins? It seems with Circle IPO, stablecoins will grow more, and Tom Lee has a good point that that may create more demand for Ethereum. In addition, the ether spot ETFs are coming. With BMNR/SBET/BTBT trying to become the MSTR of bitcoins, these seem a good bet? On the other hand, MSTR is trading an very high valuation(though maybe not as high as BMNR on mktcap/nav), and bitcoins have had a very good run.

 

Stablecoins are about the only use case that I see as valuable to the Ethereum eco-system at this point, but even that doesn't necessarily mean the benefits accrue to ETH. Take Tether for instance - more than 1/2 of Tether is now circulating on Tron over ETH. 

 

Have been waiting since 2021 for evolutions in DeFi and DAOs to actually come to fruition and it's just NOT happening. 

 

I'm basically a Bitcoin maxi now as a result of watching ETH with disappointment for 4-5 years. 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

Barely a new ATH set for Bitcoin today. 

[Paarslaars]

Only in USD though, nowhere close in EUR. Devaluing shitcoin that dollar 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

On 6/15/2025 at 10:58 AM, TwoCitiesCapital said:

I think people, myself included, have underappreciated the extent to which the market is under supplied since the ETFa were launched.

 

Since the 2024 halving, only 450 BTC are produced a day. And not even all of those are are part of the available supply. Miners like MARA and Cleanspark tend to hold every BTC they mine and are responsible for ~10% of the BTC mine in Q1. So less than 400 are available daily in supply. 

 

The Bitcoin ETFs sucked up 2,800 BTC on Friday. 795 BTC on Thursday. 1,500 BTC on Wednesday. 3,900 BTC on Tuesday. 3,600 BTC on Monday. Nearly every day of inflows to the ETFs is sucking up multiples of the daily available supply without including people buying BTC directly. 

 

The ONLY path forward is for the price to rise high enough to where $ inflows buy significantly less BTC or price goes high enough to compel a ton of selling. Either means significantly higher prices. 

 

Inflows to ETFs were $1.12B yesterday - or roughly 10k BTC - yesterday. There are only 450ish produced each day. 

 

Some thoughts: 

 

1) this was the second highest inflow ever (first was Trump's election) and was a random Thursday with little-to-no catalyst. This is what you'd expect from secular adoption. Eventually, $1.12B of inflows will be the norm (Thursday) and not the exception (Trump's inauguration). 

 

2) 10k BTC demanded on a random Thursday vs 450 produced is a stupid supply/demand mismatch that will REQUIRE significantly higher prices to compel sales of BTC and to reduce demand denominated in BTC. Particularly if there IS a bullish catalyst. 

 

3) anyone that was compelled to sell between 100-110k had opportunities in January, June, and July to do so. Those sellers have probably exhausted their supply at this point and most of those coins would've moved to wallets holding out for significantly higher prices than 100-110k. The sellers are gone and HODLers still holding. This is bullish for price dynamics. 

 

4) I'm guessing the FOMO will start at some point in the next 3-months. The typical calendar year would suggest waiting until Uptober. But this bull market has been relatively muted this far, and demand still dramatically outstripping supply, that I think the typical Q3/summer lull might be skipped this year. 

 

 

 

 

[Paarslaars]

Yeah good times, the LBE companies are also doing well. My SQNS position is up +/- 200% in two weeks.

 

I think we will hit 150-200k by end of this year.

[Milu]

No idea what price will do over the next few months or years, it’s all just finger in the air stuff really. Over 5 to 10 years though it should continue its ride upwards. Happy to be on the journey. 

[valueventures]

I'm new to this thread, so apologies if this has been discussed, but curious if anyone has a strong view on Bittensor. This is an interesting video with Barry Silbert:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=3qIL4oCe1Uo&t=1570s

[TwoCitiesCapital]

On 7/10/2025 at 5:09 AM, Paarslaars said:

Only in USD though, nowhere close in EUR. Devaluing shitcoin that dollar 

 

 Only took a week. 

[Fly]

1 hour ago, valueventures said:

I'm new to this thread, so apologies if this has been discussed, but curious if anyone has a strong view on Bittensor. This is an interesting video with Barry Silbert:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=3qIL4oCe1Uo&t=1570s

 

This is what we refer to as a "shitcoin." Bitcoin was created under unique circumstances and has an extreme network effect and first mover advantage. 

 

Barry Silbert is a snake oil salesman and I have no doubt Bittensor will someday pump up in price, and then eventually drop way down to nothing. It is not "the next bitcoin" but serves as a way for VC funds to get in early on a pump/dump scheme which they can dump on retail later when it hits the open market. 

 

Listen from 30:30, saying 99.9% of crypto is overrated, but trust me bro Bittensor is different. 

Edited July 17, 2025 by Fly

[Paarslaars]

1 hour ago, texual said:

To piggyback on Paarslaars: What are people thinking of with Metaplanet?

I am listening to a lot of Chanos talking about the spread in the mNAV over time, seeking to short MSTR and go long bitcoin exposure. I am seeing the argument being the bigger the holdings and larger the treasury, the more we would expect a narrowing of mNAV? And when we look at Metaplanet its quite a higher ratio. Is this something that will crash back down to earth with all BTC treasury companies or is there a legitimate opportunity to get the smaller, "Asian MSTR"

 

OTCMKTS: MTPLT/3350?

 

The key here is BTC yield, not size.

 

Metaplanet is reaching BTC yields of 300%+, MSTR only has about 25%. (this is the annual % at which they increase BTC per share)

BTC yield warrants a premium over mNAV (NAV of BTC holdings).

Metaplanet typically varies between 3x mNAV and 7x mNAV (currently around 2.97 so a steal).

At the current rate, Metaplanet covers their entire 'premium' over the NAV of their BTC holdings in roughly 4 months time. 

MSTR takes about 23 months to do that and it's only trading at an mNAV multiple of 1.79.

 

Metaplanet currently holds about 16k bitcoin vs 600k MSTR, they are still a long way from being hindered by their size in accumulating more bitcoins. Additionally, the japanese market appears to work in their favor due to high BTC taxes (50% vs only 20% for stocks) as well as more interesting share issuing options. Metaplanet also carefully protects their mNAV range by not issuing shares at the lower range of their mNAV premium, contrary to MSTR who initially said not to issue shares below 2x mNAV but are continiously doing so at the moment.

 

 

[changegonnacome]

Can I ask a quick Q here - obviously stabelcoins being hailed as a new payments rail with Circle going up hugely upon IPO....and then the GENUIS act was passed..........MA & V in response to the new law.....not a blip in their chart......so something not quite matching up......or most certainly the story that stablecoins are going to disrupt MA & V is considered unlikely.......any thoughts?

[TwoCitiesCapital]

9 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

Can I ask a quick Q here - obviously stabelcoins being hailed as a new payments rail with Circle going up hugely upon IPO....and then the GENUIS act was passed..........MA & V in response to the new law.....not a blip in their chart......so something not quite matching up......or most certainly the story that stablecoins are going to disrupt MA & V is considered unlikely.......any thoughts?

 

Stablecoins are here to disrupt V and MA. 

 

Any strides forward they make are to defend their existing market share.

 

Stablecoins are another competitor in the field, and a low cost one at that (at least for now). Competition means lost market share and lower profit margins - is not likely bullish for incumbents 

Edited July 24, 2025 by TwoCitiesCapital

[changegonnacome]

1 hour ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

Stablecoins are another competitor in the field, and a low cost one at that (at least for now). Competition means lost market share and lower profit margins - is not likely bullish for incumbents 

 

OK just V & MA didn't budge an inch on the passing of GENUIS act.......market seemed to look at all the hype and shrug its shoulders

 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

Scroll up a few comments. People still believe crypto is for criminals. Understanding is limited and those who don't understand the financial plumbing arguably don't understand the value prop of either Bitcoin or stablecoins.

 

To add to that, we're not at the hype cycle part of the bubble yet IMO. 

 

So I don't think most people are taking it seriously.