Cryptocurrencies

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23 hours ago, Dave86ch said:

I owned Ethereum, programmed a token in Solidity, and created some NFTs. I still hold VitaDAO and VitaFast (an NFT tied to intellectual property in pharma), but to me, the whole ecosystem feels like virtue signaling, networking, and shitcoinery that always ends up chasing airdrops or unclear interactions between DAOs.

 

I keep holding it because it’s an irrelevant part of my portfolio. I made good profits in the past, and now it’s more of a learning experience than an investment.

 

 

 

Agree that a lot of things in Crypto is still circular. But that's an opportunity for investor in my view. Once crypto goes mainstream, the market will be more efficient. More importantly, the growth and upside will be smaller. 

Current onchain user is about 30M-50M. It's similar to Internet before Facebook.

Also, should noted that investing in Crypto even in Coin with fundamental feel more close to venture investing than traditional value investing in public company. There are chances for classic value play after FTX crash thought.

Meme coin or poor fundamental coin is mostly gambling.

Edited Saturday at 01:16 PM by [email protected]

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19 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

For what is supposedly an asset class that is experiencing a secular growth trend, what matters is returns over the whole cycle, and that the pie keeps growing. People who started at the 2020 secular lows, rode it up, back down, and then back up to where we are today probably all still very negative returns in USD (and especially on a real return basis).

 

ETH had 20x since the start of 2020. The price of ETH at the start of 2020 is around 130. Now the price of ETH is 2700.

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[Vish_ram]

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/s/1gZULbVBt7

 

[Dave86ch]

 

 

[Paarslaars]

I believe it is still unknown if he actually had anything to do with it himself.

[Sweet]

 

I always was a complete sucker for a mystery.  How plausible is above?

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From Coinbase Earning Call. Stablecoin is one the best PMF of Blockchain Tech. While banks close on Weekend, Stablecoin Network continue to operating 24/7/365 globally.

Edited Wednesday at 02:57 AM by [email protected]

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Ripple is the best Crypto Tech in long term?

Result from almost 200K voters.

After many years in Crypto, I never really seen real metrics on adoption of Ripple, especially compared to Ethereum/Solana...

Seems that most retails got mislead about Ripple?

Edited Wednesday at 03:11 AM by [email protected]

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Retails came in and bought Ripple on Coinbase.

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Some high yield on Stablecoin Farming. USDB is on Blast: https://blast.io/

Just curious, what is preventing you guys from trying?

Mainet is Ethereum Layer 1.

Base/Blast/Arrbitrum are Ethereum Layer 2

Solana is a Blockchain Layer 1 (similar to Ethereum Mainet).

Edited Wednesday at 03:55 AM by [email protected]

[TwoCitiesCapital]

54 minutes ago, [email protected] said:

Ripple is the best Crypto Tech in long term?

Result from almost 200K voters.

After many years in Crypto, I never really seen real metrics on adoption of Ripple, especially compared to Ethereum/Solana...

Seems that most retails got mislead about Ripple?

 

It is unclear to me what Ripple token does other than provide funds for the parent co/organization. Ripple has worked closely with banks for years to facilitate cross-border FX transactions via blockchain - but it doesn't require the use of their token. 

 

I'm not sure if that technology is "better" than Bitcoin or Ethereum - probably depends on what you prioritize in the ranking of things - but even if true the token could be a 0. 

[Longnose]

On 2/15/2025 at 6:08 AM, [email protected] said:

 

Your idea is similar to Robinhood CEO. Crypto Tech is more efficient and can reducing cost. Here is an example"
"ROBINHOOD USES STABLECOINS TO FACILITATE TRANSACTIONS AND SETTLEMENTS BETWEEN CASH AND CRYPTO 24/7, PARTICULARLY ON WEEKENDS WHEN THE BANKS ARE USUALLY CLOSED". 

Video: 

 

 

100% i believe ETH (or other L1 Crypto) has a place in the future. 

 

But I wont trust it as a currency or security. It not decentralized and the big boys don't have me in mind. 

 

But it I do believe future businesses will build foundational infrastructure on blockchain/crypto tech that will give them an significant cost and speed advantage.  This will likely be a slow evolution. but I expect it will happen. 

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US Debt hold by China and Stablecoin

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Source.

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14 hours ago, Longnose said:

100% i believe ETH (or other L1 Crypto) has a place in the future. 

 

But I wont trust it as a currency or security. It not decentralized and the big boys don't have me in mind. 

 

But it I do believe future businesses will build foundational infrastructure on blockchain/crypto tech that will give them an significant cost and speed advantage.  This will likely be a slow evolution. but I expect it will happen. 

 

1.ETH is the native currency in the Ethereum Economy. Ethereum is similar to an emerging economy.

If you want to participate in many activities in China, you need RMB. 

If you want to participate in many activities in Ethereum, you need ETH. 

For example, to participate in ICO Boom in 2017 on Ethereum, you need ETH.

to participate in DeFi Summer & NFT Boom in 2020/2021 on Ethereum, you need ETH.

to participate in little restaking Boom in 2024 on Ethereum, you need ETH.

So ETH is clearly a currency, similar to USD, China Yuan, Japan Yen...

 

2. Can you be more specific what made Ethereum not decentralized? Which big boys controlled ETH?

 

[Milu]

4 hours ago, [email protected] said:

 

1.ETH is the native currency in the Ethereum Economy. Ethereum is similar to an emerging economy.

If you want to participate in many activities in China, you need RMB. 

If you want to participate in many activities in Ethereum, you need ETH. 

For example, to participate in ICO Boom in 2017 on Ethereum, you need ETH.

to participate in DeFi Summer & NFT Boom in 2020/2021 on Ethereum, you need ETH.

to participate in little restaking Boom in 2024 on Ethereum, you need ETH.

So ETH is clearly a currency, similar to USD, China Yuan, Japan Yen... 

 

2. Can you be more specific what made Ethereum not decentralized? Which big boys controlled ETH?

 

I still hold some ETH but am gradually converting this over to my much larger bitcoin holdings. I’m not fully convinced in the future of the asset, at least from a price growth standpoint. I’m not sure I buy the it’s a currency argument and also wouldn’t want it to be a currency. People who want to participate in china will invest in stocks and shares of Chinese companies, sure they may have to exchange their dollars or euros in RMB to do so but its not like they are holding RMB for long term compounding purposes, they just hold it for a few mins before they buy the stock.

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3 minutes ago, Milu said:

I still hold some ETH but am gradually converting this over to my much larger bitcoin holdings. I’m not fully convinced in the future of the asset, at least from a price growth standpoint. I’m not sure I buy the it’s a currency argument and also wouldn’t want it to be a currency. People who want to participate in china will invest in stocks and shares of Chinese companies, sure they may have to exchange their dollars or euros in RMB to do so but its not like they are holding RMB for long term compounding purposes, they just hold it for a few mins before they buy the stock.

 

ETH has 3 properties:

- Store Of Value as a currency/gold.

- Consumption as a commodity(oil).

- Productive Asset as a stock/bond(has Cash Flow).

It's very difficult to evaluate the intrinsic value of ETH with all those properties. I think nobody really know.

The most obvious market for ETH is similar to Bitcoin: Replacing Gold. Gold is $20K market cap and is vulnerable for disruption. 

This is the race between BTC and ETH. BTC has many advantages but it also has many long tail risk:

1. Security budget: reward for miners reduces every 4Y. Can price of Bitcoin keep double every 4Y? Even if price of Bitcoin 2x every 4Y, the cost of 51% attack compared to opportunities gain just widen overtime. Then people can short Bitcoin and make 51% attack.

2. Quantum Computing: Bitcoin will need to hardfork/upgrade to cope with Quantum risk. This is something that Bitcoin community is not used to and there is only 1 client development team.

3. Centralization Risk: mining has economic of scale so it leads to more centralization overtime. Especially after Quantum computing.

 

On the other hand for Ethereum:

1. Security budget: provided by cash flow from economic activity on Ethereum.

2. Quantum Computing: very well researched in Ethereum Community. Ethereum Talent is used to tackle difficult technical problems and upgrading.

3. Centralization Risk: Proof Of Stake has less economic of scale. Staking 1 ETH got similar ROI as staking 1000 ETH.

 

 

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36 minutes ago, Milu said:

I still hold some ETH but am gradually converting this over to my much larger bitcoin holdings. I’m not fully convinced in the future of the asset, at least from a price growth standpoint. I’m not sure I buy the it’s a currency argument and also wouldn’t want it to be a currency. People who want to participate in china will invest in stocks and shares of Chinese companies, sure they may have to exchange their dollars or euros in RMB to do so but its not like they are holding RMB for long term compounding purposes, they just hold it for a few mins before they buy the stock.

 

I think one of the reason ETH is underperforming this cycle is because Ethereum Economy was dollarization. There are too much USD stablecoin on Ethereum now($120B). People use USD stablecoin for Store Of Value, currency, consumption... instead of ETH. So the money premium for ETH went down.

There is also a lot of short pressure on ETH, over $9B currently. I think Short Squeeze might coming after staking ETH ETF is approved.

Otherwise, we need new economic activities on Ethereum, something similar to ICO/DeFi Summar/NFT, to push the demand for ETH.

Edited 21 hours ago by [email protected]

[TwoCitiesCapital]

1 hour ago, [email protected] said:

 

I think one of the reason ETH is underperforming this cycle is because Ethereum Economy was dollarization. There are too much USD stablecoin on Ethereum now($120B).

 

Crazy that basically the only valuable real world application to ETH, so far, is the bearish case for ETH? 

 

1 hour ago, [email protected] said:

Otherwise, we need new economic activities on Ethereum, something similar to ICO/DeFi Summar/NFT, to push the demand for ETH.

 

ETH needs a real world application. - not another DeFi/NFT summer. Perhaps Blackrock finds that with tokenization of the funds. But then people would be holding the funds, and not ETH, just like the stable coins. So that is also...bearish? 

 

 

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58 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

Crazy that basically the only valuable real world application to ETH, so far, is the bearish case for ETH?

 

Yes. I think the flood of USD Stablecoin on Ethereum might actually reduce the currency premium for ETH in the short term. Especially USD offers higher interest rate than ETH.

 

But in the long term it will increase economic activity on Ethereum. Because liquidity has network effect. Liquidity attracts more liquidity. USD Stablecoin on Ethereum will attract EURO/YEN Stablecoin come to Ethereum... Similar with TBill, TBond, Equity... 

As more economic activity happen on Ethereum, the cash flow and burn rate will increase, making ETH more attractive as store of value and productive asset.

 

This is a little similar to Amazon passing value to customer to build the scale and we did not see the earning.

Notes: Things will also change depend on the USD interest rate/US Debt Crisis.

Edited 19 hours ago by [email protected]