Cryptocurrencies

[wachtwoord]

On 11/23/2024 at 1:42 PM, SharperDingaan said:

Trading gains need to go into something else of value, with a low correlation to BTC. 

 

Trading? I thought this was a value investing forum. I certsinly dont have an edge trading anything. I buy things I consider undervalued by the market and hold them. Indefinitely if needed.

 

Only reasons to sell are if its no longer undervalued, consumption and balancing the portfolio (trading returns for a (perceived) reduction in risk).

 

On 11/24/2024 at 4:01 PM, james22 said:

All my friends use financial advisors.

 

This horniness for "experts" (self-proclaimed or society proclaimed) is what's wrong with society/people. Take responsibility and do your own thing. None of the experts are going to be as alligned with you as you, half of them are below average by definition and most things are easy enough to figure out if you you do it yourself and keep it simple for yourself.

 

I always told people that allocating 100% to VT or VWRL beats 80% of the financial advisers if not more (and picking an above average advisor is as hard as learning to solve the problem yourself) so anyone can do it. Just make the hurdles low enough for yourself to clear.

 

Many examples of this exist in societ up to ridiculous levels. Eg if everyone thought for themselves barely anyone would have taken the covid shots falsely marketed as vaccines. Yet in reality most did, especially those higher educated (but not the PhDs funnily enough).

 

People are simply scared as hell to be responsible for their own choices. When things go south they want to be able to say "I followed the experts" and receive social support rather than blame or ridicule for having dared made a decision themselves.

 

Only those of us who care more about making correct choices than what others think of them have a shot at making such calls correctly. And few will praise you for it, calling you lucky. Be your own disciple.

[TwoCitiesCapital]

15 minutes ago, wachtwoord said:

 

I always told people that allocating 100% to VT or VWRL beats 80% of the financial advisers if not more (and picking an above average advisor is as hard as learning to solve the problem yourself) so anyone can do it. Just make the hurdles low enough for yourself to clear.

 

 

The value of the "experts" largely helping people stick to this plan. And to know when enough is enough. 

 

I view financial advisors as more behavioral therapists - you're not hiring them to pick the best stocks anymore. You're hiring them to talk you off the ledge in March 2020 and prevent you from mortgaging your home to go all in on PLTR in the summer of 2021. 

Edited Wednesday at 12:32 AM by TwoCitiesCapital

[james22]

28 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

The value of the "experts" largely helping people stick to this plan. And to know when enough is enough. 

 

I view financial advisors as more behavioral therapists - you're not hiring them to pick the best stocks anymore. You're hiring them to talk you off the ledge in March 2020 and prevent you from mortgaging your home to go all in on PLTR in the summer of 2021. 

 

Yeah, and I've come around a little bit.

 

1% seems inexpensive after seeing a couple friends talked out of what would have been really serious mistakes.

 

(My advice meant nothing because I don't wear a suit [anymore] and they've seen me drunk.)

 

I don't really need my personal trainer either, but . . .

 

[wachtwoord]

1 hour ago, james22 said:

 

Yeah, and I've come around a little bit.

 

1% seems inexpensive after seeing a couple friends talked out of what would have been really serious mistakes.

 

(My advice meant nothing because I don't wear a suit [anymore] and they've seen me drunk.)

 

I don't really need my personal trainer either, but . . .

 

 

Lol you have a personal trainer? Just do it yourself ...

 

If discipline is thd problem: get discipline. You need it for everything in life.

[TwoCitiesCapital]

23 minutes ago, wachtwoord said:

 

Lol you have a personal trainer? Just do it yourself ...

 

If discipline is thd problem: get discipline. You need it for everything in life.

 

 

As if getting a trainer and showing up regularly isn't a form of a discipline....

[wachtwoord]

8 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

 

As if getting a trainer and showing up regularly isn't a form of a discipline....

 

Showing up yes. Getting the trainer no not really. Just a form of monetary waste and intellectual and/or disciplinary laziness.

 

Or do you think going to a restaurant instead of cooking yourself is discipline too? And that makes more sense cause making certain dishes can be really difficult to make and some ingredients cannot be bought (or not cost efficiently at least) in small amounts.

 

I mean: sure if you know yourself and without the personal trainer you won't work out sufficiently and you dont feel like you can fix your discipline than sure, hire one (know thyself). But that's circumventing the consequences of your own lack of discipline rather than discipline itself.

[Vish_ram]

So @wachtwoord you do your own surgery, plough the fields to make food, do your own plumbing, roofing? Kudos. 

[james22]

12 hours ago, wachtwoord said:

Lol you have a personal trainer? Just do it yourself ...

 

If discipline is thd problem: get discipline. You need it for everything in life.

 

1. It is hard to form correct yourself. You'd accept a Coach, yeah?

 

2. Sure, discipline is important and something one should always be building.

 

But given a finite amount at any time, no reason to draw it down when you don't have to to save it for when you do. 

 

If a personal trainer makes less of a demand on your discipline than otherwise, why not?

 

You don't get any extra credit for making things difficult.

 

For the same reason I buy prepared meals, have a housekeeper, etc.

[wachtwoord]

3 hours ago, Vish_ram said:

So @wachtwoord you do your own surgery, plough the fields to make food, do your own plumbing, roofing? Kudos. 

 

No those things are hard (and surgery can hardly be done on oneself even by those skilled). But using experts for things that are relatively easy is a cop out.

[73 Reds]

3 minutes ago, wachtwoord said:

 

No those things are hard (and surgery can hardly be done on oneself even by those skilled). But using experts for things that are relatively easy is a cop out.

Like money management?  

[wachtwoord]

18 minutes ago, james22 said:

 

1. It is hard to form correct yourself. You'd accept a Coach, yeah?

 

2. Sure, discipline is important and something one should always be building.

 

But given a finite amount at any time, no reason to draw it down when you don't have to to save it for when you do. 

 

If a personal trainer makes less of a demand on your discipline than otherwise, why not?

 

You don't get any extra credit for making things difficult.

 

For the same reason I buy prepared meals, have a housekeeper, etc.

 

Coach for teaching me a skill sure when that's more effective than teaching myself (so exception with all sources available these days). So that's time constrained by definition.

 

Not to do the thing for me. That only makes sense for the very low end skill-price side of the spectrum eg cleaning (which I still choose to do myself but that makes sense) and the very other end of skill specialization (eg surgery or doing the electric wiring in your house). 

[wachtwoord]

Just now, 73 Reds said:

Like money management?  

 

As I said: that's really really easy. At least relative to the level of advisor you are likely to get (and again: no you cannot pick an above average advisor unless you also have the skills to do it yourself).

 

Putting everything in VT or VWRL beats the average advisor. Hell it beats 80%+ of the advisors and that's before considering their cost.

[73 Reds]

Just now, wachtwoord said:

 

As I said: that's really really easy. At least relative to the level of advisor you are likely to get (and again: no you cannot pick an above average advisor unless you also have the skills to do it yourself).

 

Putting everything in VT or VWRL beats the average advisor. Hell it beats 80%+ of the advisors and that's before considering their cost.

+1

[james22]

31 minutes ago, wachtwoord said:

As I said: that's really really easy.

 

We know it's easy.

 

But it takes a lot of work to understand that.

[wachtwoord]

41 minutes ago, james22 said:

 

We know it's easy.

 

But it takes a lot of work to understand that.

 

If it's a lot of work for your particular psychology (don't mean you in particular of course, but in general) best get to it! Much better than any skill you can learn and translates to almost any context. It's imperative to realize what you should take personal responsibility for.

 

Relative freedom fully depends on relative independence.

[james22]

46 minutes ago, wachtwoord said:

If it's a lot of work for your particular psychology (don't mean you in particular of course, but in general) best get to it! Much better than any skill you can learn and translates to almost any context. It's imperative to realize what you should take personal responsibility for.

 

Relative freedom fully depends on relative independence.

 

I was always baffled others didn't care about their finances (freeedom!) until a girlfriend reminded me I hadn't seen a Doctor for something like 15 years at that time.

 

There's a number of spokes on the wellness wheel. 

 

No one's trading their faith, health, family, friends, etc. for financial independence.

[SharperDingaan]

17 hours ago, wachtwoord said:

 

Trading? I thought this was a value investing forum. I certainly don't have an edge trading anything. I buy things I consider undervalued by the market and hold them. Indefinitely if needed. Only reasons to sell are if its no longer undervalued, consumption and balancing the portfolio (trading returns for a (perceived) reduction in risk).

 

Quite agreed; flog the overvalued sucker at USD 99K to buy it back undervalued at USD 92K. Of course ... given that 'value' is all in the eyes of the believer, there is a need to make sure that you aren't blind-folded at the time!

 

Point to all this is that it's prudent to take chips off the table from time to time; but what to do with the proceeds? there is only so much that one can spend without severely screwing up ones life. If it can't stay in BTC, and you can't spend it, then what?

 

Poland (NATO, 1999) is now actively preparing for war, and the last time this happened it didn't go well. The opportunities to travel freely are beginning to close in, so if it is on your bucket list ... get it done.   

 

https://www.msn.com/en-ie/news/world/poland-prepares-for-war/ar-AA1uQoEw

 

SD

 

Edited Wednesday at 05:53 PM by SharperDingaan

[TwoCitiesCapital]

7 hours ago, Vish_ram said:

So @wachtwoord you do your own surgery, plough the fields to make food, do your own plumbing, roofing? Kudos. 

 

Professional athletes only need coaches because they're not disciplined enough

 

Monetary waste at its highest form

[Vish_ram]

4 hours ago, wachtwoord said:

 

As I said: that's really really easy. At least relative to the level of advisor you are likely to get (and again: no you cannot pick an above average advisor unless you also have the skills to do it yourself).

 

Putting everything in VT or VWRL beats the average advisor. Hell it beats 80%+ of the advisors and that's before considering their cost.

 

True. Finding a great advisor is a great skill. Some find it by luck too. It takes intellect to know someone's intellect. 

 

I'm an advisor and I know how hard the game is. we've delivered outsized results for our clients. I would say out of 300, maybe 1 or 2 know believed in us more than we did. The rest just followed our track record. 

 

My general point is, there are tons of folks who do horribly at investing. I try to steer them towards VOO VIG VTI VGT QQQ etc. The $ losses are just astounding. 

Edited Wednesday at 07:15 PM by Vish_ram

[Dave86ch]

16 hours ago, SharperDingaan said:

Poland (NATO, 1999) is now actively preparing for war, and the last time this happened it didn't go well. The opportunities to travel freely are beginning to close in, so if it is on your bucket list ... get it done.   

 

https://www.msn.com/en-ie/news/world/poland-prepares-for-war/ar-AA1uQoEw

 

SD

 

I'm trying to rationalize, but the situation is clear.

It's difficult to plan what to do, as it probably always will be.

I don't know if my country is at imminent risk, but for sure, Europe will quickly become a dangerous place.

 

 

[SharperDingaan]

6 hours ago, Dave86ch said:

I'm trying to rationalise, but the situation is clear.

It's difficult to plan what to do, as it probably always will be.

I don't know if my country is at imminent risk, but for sure, Europe will quickly become a dangerous place.

 

Talk to those who travelled within Europe during the inter-war years. Paris, Berlin, Milan, etc. in the mid 1920's was quite something, and is often a reference point in the memories of those still around. We may well be in a similar period today ... so if the Trans Siberian or Orient Express is on the bucket list ... experience it and/or get it done while you still can.

 

The age-old survival tactic is family on every continent, and savings/wealth in their local currency. Whoever wins, there is family in that country/continent, and the means by which to bring you over and help you re-establish. While your life will be done, you're still alive (assume conflict survival), and it is your kids that will benefit. In today's age, we simply have more/better tools.

 

Today's comfortable living arrangements are just baubles; take time-out to appreciate it while you have it, 'cause you could lose it all tomorrow. If you need convincing .... simply talk to those in Ukraine; until the first Russian missiles fell, many in Kiev were also absolutely sure than it would never happen.  

 

First, borrow a page from the cockroaches - and survive; the thriving can come later!

 

SD

 

 

Edited yesterday at 05:00 PM by SharperDingaan

[wachtwoord]

1 hour ago, SharperDingaan said:

 

 If you need convincing .... simply talk to those in Ukraine; until the first Russian missiles fell, many in Kiev were also absolutely sure than it would never happen.  

 

 

If they didn't see it coming they lived with zero empathy since 2014. What was done since NATO vassalized Ukraine in 2014 to the Russian culture's in the east was horrendous and couldn't stand.

 

I was disappointed that Putin waited as long as he did. He though he could negotiate with the untrustworthy imperialists (NATO). Hopefully Trump does something major (like discontinue NATO, but I doubt he will as it gives the US a lot of power).

[SharperDingaan]

18 hours ago, wachtwoord said:

 

If they didn't see it coming they lived with zero empathy since 2014. What was done since NATO vassalized Ukraine in 2014 to the Russian culture's in the east was horrendous and couldn't stand.

 

They were just being human. Denying the possibility of an armed conflict was comforting, so like a deer they froze in the headlights ..... and pretended that everything was OK. Same thing happens in mania's ... US housing, GFC and negative interest rates, etc.

 

It's also why grizzled bastards are so hard to kill .... they survived the first time and are now experienced at it.

 

SD

 

 

 

 

 

[fareastwarriors]

Crypto’s ‘Middle Child’ Ethereum Flounders as Rivals Gain Ground