GLP-1 disruption

[Castanza]

1 hour ago, CorpRaider said:

I know several people on it and the weight loss I have observed is remarkable.  Sounds like it has an effect similar to early bariatric surgery or something (feeling of fullness/nausea if you eat).  They say they don't even want wine/alcohol.  

What income class and demographic are they from if you don’t mind sharing. 

Edited October 4, 2023 by Castanza

[CorpRaider]

23 minutes ago, Castanza said:

What income class and demographic are they from if you don’t mind sharing. 

They're private paying for it so pretty high disposable income professionals.  N is only like 3.  I am told dosage has to be increased to keep losing weight so there must be some adaptation, not sure about maintenance.  

[SharperDingaan]

It's click bait folks; designed to sell Ozempic. As body's 'starve' they initially extract more nutrient from less food; keep starving them and they try to conserve energy wherever possible, and feed on muscle. The rest of us get to put up with fashionable whining anorexics, and the well-know images of starving babies. Identical to the junkie selling highs (beauty); to keep the weight loss going, the dieter has to increase dosage, and toxicity rapidly rises on the ever declining quantities of dillutent(food). Ozempic does great until the bodies pile up, and the starvation images upload to social media. Exploit accordingly.

 

SD

 

 

[Red Lion]

21 hours ago, SharperDingaan said:

It's click bait folks; designed to sell Ozempic. As body's 'starve' they initially extract more nutrient from less food; keep starving them and they try to conserve energy wherever possible, and feed on muscle. The rest of us get to put up with fashionable whining anorexics, and the well-know images of starving babies. Identical to the junkie selling highs (beauty); to keep the weight loss going, the dieter has to increase dosage, and toxicity rapidly rises on the ever declining quantities of dillutent(food). Ozempic does great until the bodies pile up, and the starvation images upload to social media. Exploit accordingly.

 

SD

 

 

How poetic, and untrue. bodies piling up because of people losing weight on Ozempic? 
 

Even though their blood pressure, lipid, and other health markets are rapidly improving? 
 

Come on this is absurd. 
 

Ozempic and mounjaro are absolute breakthrough treatments for type 2 diabetes, but also show huge promise in many other areas as well. 
 

Also, as someone who’s on mj, not taking it for weight loss, I’m literally not eating any less than normal, maybe because I’m not actually at an overweight weight I don’t know? Point is you clearly don’t know either do you? 

Edited October 5, 2023 by RedLion

[SharperDingaan]

5 hours ago, RedLion said:

How poetic, and untrue. bodies piling up because of people losing weight on Ozempic? 
 

Even though their blood pressure, lipid, and other health markets are rapidly improving? 
 

Come on this is absurd. 
 

Ozempic and mounjaro are absolute breakthrough treatments for type 2 diabetes, but also show huge promise in many other areas as well. 
 

Also, as someone who’s on mj, not taking it for weight loss, I’m literally not eating any less than normal, maybe because I’m not actually at an overweight weight I don’t know? Point is you clearly don’t know either do you? 

 

Like anything, use Ozempic as prescribed for the type-2 diabetes it was designed for & it's a wonder drug. Abuse it to do something else entirely (weight loss), then repeatedly do it again by upping the dosage (overdosing), and it's a very different thing. Anorexics already suffer a disturbed perception of body weight and image, abusing Ozempic to keep the weight off is little different to a druggie craving a fix. Lot of people also used to think that Oxycontin was OK, until they got addicted.

 

SD 

[bathtime]

KO and PEP down big today.

 

KO getting to a decent relative value?

 

Near the cycle low forward P/E of 18 from last decade. 
 

 

[bathtime]

Reddit threads on soda consumption by people taking GLP-1s.

 

 

 

Edited October 5, 2023 by bathtime

[Red Lion]

2 hours ago, SharperDingaan said:

 

Like anything, use Ozempic as prescribed for the type-2 diabetes it was designed for & it's a wonder drug. Abuse it to do something else entirely (weight loss), then repeatedly do it again by upping the dosage (overdosing), and it's a very different thing. Anorexics already suffer a disturbed perception of body weight and image, abusing Ozempic to keep the weight off is little different to a druggie craving a fix. Lot of people also used to think that Oxycontin was OK, until they got addicted.

 

SD 

Fair enough. But I do think there are a lot of off label uses that are promising as well. Personally, as a type 2 diabetic that's not overweight but needs this to stay off insulin, I'd love it if the healthcare system would gatekeep a little bit better so I could regularly get my supply. I do think that they need to massively ramp up the supply of these meds though because there are clearly tons of people that need them that can't get them, and arguably a lot of people that could at least benefit from taking them that also can't get them. 

[John Hjorth]

3 hours ago, SharperDingaan said:

 

Like anything, use Ozempic as prescribed for the type-2 diabetes it was designed for & it's a wonder drug. Abuse it to do something else entirely (weight loss), then repeatedly do it again by upping the dosage (overdosing), and it's a very different thing. Anorexics already suffer a disturbed perception of body weight and image, abusing Ozempic to keep the weight off is little different to a druggie craving a fix. Lot of people also used to think that Oxycontin was OK, until they got addicted.

 

SD 

 

29 minutes ago, RedLion said:

Fair enough. But I do think there are a lot of off label uses that are promising as well. Personally, as a type 2 diabetic that's not overweight but needs this to stay off insulin, I'd love it if the healthcare system would gatekeep a little bit better so I could regularly get my supply. I do think that they need to massively ramp up the supply of these meds though because there are clearly tons of people that need them that can't get them, and arguably a lot of people that could at least benefit from taking them that also can't get them. 

 

I personally think there is a lot to think about with regard to the concept of "treatment" in todays medicine.

 

In some cases, it's to me 'just' a lie, diabetes being one of them. [Pardon my French here.]

 

Threatment as in 'keeping things in check' is certainly not the same thing as a cure [once and for all].

[Castanza]

55 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

 

I personally think there is a lot to think about with regard to the concept of "treatment" in todays medicine.

 

In some cases, it's to me 'just' a lie, diabetes being one of them. [Pardon my French here.]

 

Threatment as in 'keeping things in check' is certainly not the same thing as a cure [once and for all].

Agree with this 100%

 

Western medicine has evolved into “let’s throw a pill at the problem.” The prescription drug usage rates speak for themselves.

[Spekulatius]

I do think that what @SharperDingaan wrote is well prosed non-sense. The bodies of overweight and people with diabetes are piling up right now. it looks like the GPT-1 is a drug that fight both an the synergistic benefits from reducing both are huge for health going from better cardio health, less hospitalization, less cancer, higher labor participation and probably many other things. Munger call this a Lollapalooza. Truly gamechanger if these benefits work for a long time.

 

It’s quite a stretch to think that people will overdose until it becomes toxic or they starve themselves to death. I am sure some idiots will do it , but that does not mean that millions  can’t benefit from them using them responsibly.

Edited October 6, 2023 by Spekulatius

[UK]

Some estimates from SA:  The comments from the nation's largest retailer added some weight to the issue that has been speculated upon loosely for months. Analysts estimate that nearly 7% of the U.S. population could be on weight loss drugs by 2035, which could lead to a 30% cut in daily calorie intake due to the consumption changes for the targeted group.

 

Maybe not so scary and too far in the future, even if true. 

 

Edited October 6, 2023 by UK

[CorpRaider]

If I'm cutting calories, I'm cutting out potatoes and keeping the oreos.  We're all going to go on the Buffett diet.

[Spekulatius]

55 minutes ago, UK said:

Some estimates from SA:  The comments from the nation's largest retailer added some weight to the issue that has been speculated upon loosely for months. Analysts estimate that nearly 7% of the U.S. population could be on weight loss drugs by 2035, which could lead to a 30% cut in daily calorie intake due to the consumption changes for the targeted group.

 

Maybe not so scary and too far in the future, even if true. 

 

If these drugs work as well as expected, I am taking the over on 7%. For once, some of the second Gen GPT-1 should be generic by 2035 (Ozempic should go generic by 2032), which means they become much cheaper and that should open the floodgates to widespread use.

[whatstheofficerproblem]

Here's what I'm starting to think. The reason why Walmart and all these other firms think that 'Ozempic' is causing its users to spend less is suspect. Literally ~2% or less than that is on these drugs at the moment. They seem to conflating inflation, shrinkflation and 'Ozempic effects ' imo. These things work, there is no doubt about it, but how are they able to identify and provide such 'headlines' when the userbase is so small. People are buying less because costs have gone up, quantity shrunk and they are just being more conscious about how they spend their money?

Edited October 6, 2023 by whatstheofficerproblem

[UK]

2 minutes ago, whatstheofficerproblem said:

Here's what I'm starting to think. The reason why Walmart and all these other firms think that 'Ozempic' is causing its users to spend less is suspect. Literally ~2% or less than that is on these drugs at the moment. They seem to conflating inflation, shrinkflation and 'Ozempic effects ' imo. These things work, there is no doubt about it, but how are they able to identify and provide such 'headlines' when the userbase is so small. People are buying less because costs have gone up, quantity shrunk and they are just being more conscious about how they spend their money?

 

I think so far the talk is more about the possible future impact?

[Spekulatius]

5 minutes ago, whatstheofficerproblem said:

Here's what I'm starting to think. The reason why Walmart and all these other firms think that 'Ozempic' is causing its users to spend less is suspect. Literally ~2% or less than that is on these drugs at the moment. They seem to conflating inflation, shrinkflation and 'Ozempic effects ' imo. These things work, there is no doubt about it, but how are they able to identify and provide such 'headlines' when the userbase is so small. People are buying less because costs have gone up, quantity shrunk and they are just being more conscious about how they spend their money?

I don't think you are correct. WMT has CC data from both food and drug purchases (from their pharmacy) and can compare nonGPT-1 users with GPT-1 users. 2% is a huge dataset in terms of statistical sampling if you are as large as WMT.

 

Also- think first order principles. We know that GPT-1 users eat less and drink less soda etc, that's why they are losing weight after all. Whey shouldn't they buy less? It makes perfect sense.

 

Maybe some users will trade up to more expensive food. I think there is an opportunity here for premiumization.

[whatstheofficerproblem]

3 minutes ago, UK said:

 

I think so far the talk is more about the possible future impact?

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/consumer/ozempic-drug-users-are-buying-less-food-walmart-says-rcna119000

 

I was talking in reference to this data from Walmart. They used an anonymized test from the people buying GLP-1 in their pharmacies and then shopping. And even in their case, there is cause to believe that GLP is expensive as is so they are budgeting the rest of their spend, or that since they have already started GLP this is an effort toward a healthy lifestyle i.e. less junk or calories in general, or just inflation.

[whatstheofficerproblem]

1 minute ago, Spekulatius said:

Maybe some users will trade up to more expensive food. I think there is an opportunity here for premiumization.

 

Agree with this. Definitely scope for premiumization. But I also think low end fast foods will benefit if this becomes generic ten years from now.

 

Affordable weight loss = More affordable fast calorie intake (Not holding back on cravings).

 

Is there any research as to after how long the effect of GLP suppressing appetite/cravings wears off?

[Spekulatius]

2 minutes ago, whatstheofficerproblem said:

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/consumer/ozempic-drug-users-are-buying-less-food-walmart-says-rcna119000

 

I was talking in reference to this data from Walmart. They used an anonymized test from the people buying GLP-1 in their pharmacies and then shopping. And even in their case, there is cause to believe that GLP is expensive as is so they are budgeting the rest of their spend, or that since they have already started GLP this is an effort toward a healthy lifestyle i.e. less junk or calories in general, or just inflation.

Ok, you changed the explanation, but not the outcome. People on Ozempic want a healthier lifestyle and either because of inflation or less cravings that lets them to eat less which lets them to buy less food. Same outcome.

 

This looks a shift in consumer behavior that is likely to be long lasting and will continue to accelerate, imo.

[UK]

18 minutes ago, whatstheofficerproblem said:

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/consumer/ozempic-drug-users-are-buying-less-food-walmart-says-rcna119000

 

I was talking in reference to this data from Walmart. They used an anonymized test from the people buying GLP-1 in their pharmacies and then shopping. And even in their case, there is cause to believe that GLP is expensive as is so they are budgeting the rest of their spend, or that since they have already started GLP this is an effort toward a healthy lifestyle i.e. less junk or calories in general, or just inflation.

 

Oh, ok, thanks!

 

Edited October 6, 2023 by UK

[SharperDingaan]

Drug thing: Junkies routinely overdose on toxic drugs. BC averages 207 deaths/month (1455/7); in some places, so many at a time that it even overwhelms a city's ambulance capacity. Nobody plans on being a junkie, and nobody wants to use a questionable supply, but when needs must the dice are thrown. 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/toxic-drug-deaths-july-2023-1.6950922

 

No matter the drug, some people are going to abuse it, it isn't going to go well, and there will be deaths; it doesn't mean we shouldn't use the drug as prescribed. However if we don't hear negative media, or see the bodies, we perceive everything to be fine. Manipulate social media to suddenly make patients aware, via a viral campaign and graphic imaging, and there will be a negative impact on the makers share price; that is exploitable. The financial industry has long been a haven for sociopaths and psychopaths, there will inevitably be attacks from time to time. https://www.ft.com/content/97fc800a-31e2-11e4-a19b-00144feabdc0

 

Economics thing: With only $X to spend on groceries, when inflation prevails you either buy less of the same (smaller packages), or substitute (house vs brand name). However if you can both eat less (Ozempic abuse) and divert the net savings into something more fun; the food industry sees immediate & growing permanent demand destruction. Furthermore that big earnings decline 'n' years out, discounted back to today, only appears as a gentle headwind and not as a hurricane. Exploitable opportunity. 

 

SD

Edited October 6, 2023 by SharperDingaan

[UK]

https://www.wsj.com/health/pharma/oprah-winfrey-ozempic-weightwatchers-new-formula-1ec4e706?mod=hp_lead_pos7

 

“My position on the use of prescription medication was misconstrued and taken out of context,” Winfrey said in a statement to The Wall Street Journal. “To be clear, I believe that prescription medications are an important and viable option to consider for people who struggle with weight and health related issues. Every person should be able to choose what wellness and good health means for them without scrutiny, stigma or shame.” The stock gyration highlighted a tension within WeightWatchers over Winfrey’s involvement. On Instagram in recent months, she posted photos from travels around the world—dancing in Marrakesh, riding camels in Jordan. Some WeightWatchers employees shared the posts with one another, noting that she looks great, and has clearly lost weight. It seemed the perfect opportunity to hawk WeightWatchers, but Winfrey wasn’t talking about WeightWatchers anymore. Associates from her WeightWatchers days started to wonder: Was Winfrey on Ozempic? 

...

Morgan Stanley predicts the new class of weight-loss medications such as Ozempic will become pharmaceutical blockbusters, worth a collective $54 billion by 2030. The analog its analysts draw: high-blood-pressure medications, which went from a nascent market in the 1980s to a $30 billion one a decade later. 

...

WeightWatchers jumped in to the arena March, paying $106 million to buy Sequence, a subscription service that prescribes the class of weight-loss drugs via telehealth appointments. For the first time, that allowed WeightWatchers members to get prescriptions to drugs like Ozempic that the company hoped they would couple with workshops and other traditional offerings. 

...

The potential upside is significant. Medicare currently doesn’t cover anti-obesity medications, and Sistani said her company stands to benefit if Medicare stops classifying such drugs as vanity prescriptions, as hair-loss medication is. “Last time I checked, nobody’s dying from losing their hair,” she said. 

[KCLarkin]

On 10/4/2023 at 8:13 AM, thowed said:

I suspect that this is one of those temporary dislocation opportunities to buy Consumer Snack companies cheaper than usual, while the Ozempic hype goes overboard.

 

I have no idea of the GLP-1 efficacy, but from crowd psychology it seems reasonable that people are getting over-excited about its effects in relation to snacking.

 

Similar sort of thing to 2021 when V & MA came down because they were going to be disrupted by BNPL and Crypto.

 

Anyways, snack cos aren't my favourite things generally, but at the right price, as 'bond proxies' you could arguably do a lot worse than Pepsi, Mondelez & possibly Hershey (as a US-only play).

 

 

 

 

 

Yes, my inclination when stocks are narrative driven is to fade. The same forces that are causing the sell-off in junk food also sold off auto parts and costco due to Amazon threat. Sold off convenience stores due to EVs. Mooned Peloton and 3d printers and tilray.

 

The problem here is that most of these stocks started at high valuations and have plenty of debt. Both aspects that aren’t aren’t appealing at current interest rates.

 

TLDR: the risk is potentially real but market will overreact in short term creating a buying opportunity.

[Spekulatius]

I think consumer staples are selling off more due to higher LT interest rates than due to GPT-1 threats. The GPT-1 issue is just one more nail in the coffin and caused more selling pressure.