Is Europe becoming uninvestable?

[Dalal.Holdings]

 

 

[John Hjorth]

22 minutes ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

 

 

 

Out of curtesy the bosses of BP and SHELL will meet in as called, listen to Mr. Starmer, say really nothing, then go back in their corner offices, nose down in the already given track, set by their boards.

[Spekulatius]

BP and Shell have their headquarter in the UK (still) but they are multinationals and only a small fraction of their assets are in the UK. Starmer has no leverage.

 

I do think he is calling them in to prevent price gouging with fuel prices rising more than is justified by rising input costs.You see some of this happening already on the US with diesel potentially. I expect Trump to make some similar noises pretty soon.

[Dalal.Holdings]

The U.S. is the world's largest producer...it has plenty of room to maneuver this disruption. Can't say the same for Europe. And for Europe, a large part of it is self-inflicted

 

 

 

Situation looks catastrophic for anything energy intensive in Europe (Steel, Chemicals, ?autos) 

[John Hjorth]

4 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

BP and Shell have their headquarter in the UK (still) but they are multinationals and only a small fraction of their assets are in the UK. Starmer has no leverage.

 

I do think he is calling them in to prevent price gouging with fuel prices rising more than is justified by rising input costs.You see some of this happening already on the US with diesel potentially. I expect Trump to make some similar noises pretty soon.

 

Who else should he call? - As you wrote, he has no control what so ever over what's going on. Just the usual sh*t posted here in this topic, that investment related is irrelevant about Europe, posted here by an American.

[Dalal.Holdings]

1 hour ago, John Hjorth said:

 

Who else should he call? - As you wrote, he has no control what so ever over what's going on. Just the usual sh*t posted here in this topic, that investment related is irrelevant about Europe, posted here by an American.

As usual, you are absolutely clueless about what I post. You just don't get it. For your own sanity, you should ignore my posts because you are clearly just clueless.

 

Ed Milliband and Starmer are hellbent on NetZero and preventing new licenses in the North Sea...they have created the situation and the only tools available to them are taxes and tweets about price gouging. They are at fault for the rising energy prices in UK.

 

For those who are not clueless:

 

The energy situation in Europe is set up for catastrophe all thanks to its leaders of the past 15 years. They shut down nuclear, shut down fossil fuel production, etc. European leaders have set up the continent to be reliant on 1) Russia and 2) Middle East for marginal energy/fossil fuel needs.

 

Anyone who has opened a history book is aware that #1 and #2 can be unreliable and prone to black swans...that's why smart leaders diversify their energy sources (USA, Norway, etc). European leaders chose not to thanks to climate change and a bunch of b.s.

 

Now they are highly vulnerable to black swans...

 

Just take a look at European Chemical, Steel, Auto and other businesses and what is likely to happen if this continues for much longer...

 

Anyone who thinks this has no bearing on investing in Europe is asinine.

[John Hjorth]

Please continue aiming for my legs, you're welcome. I can assure you you run out of steam before me.

[Dalal.Holdings]

 

 

 

The Labour MP video is astonishing. These people actually think they are doing the right thing. She thinks she has brought her country closer to energy security when the reality is the exact opposite. Simply unbelievable.

 

[Dalal.Holdings]

UK heavy industry looks doomed

 

 

 

 

Edited March 15 by Dalal.Holdings

[Dalal.Holdings]

Absolutely insane exchange. These people are not interested in reason. They are driven purely by ideology.

 

 

 

 

[adventurer]

Slightly off-topic, yet I will give it a go even if I risk a slap in the face: Anyone has any ideas for long-term European compounders like FFH and BRK (though maybe not the same quality)? Ideally listed within the European Union and re-investing earnings i/o paying divs. 

Edited March 18 by adventurer

[Marco Van Basten]

1 hour ago, adventurer said:

Slightly off-topic, yet I will give it a go even if I risk a slap in the face: Anyone has any ideas for long-term European compounders like FFH and BRK (though maybe not the same quality)? Ideally listed within the European Union and re-investing earnings i/o paying divs. 

I will give you several but they are all non-insurance: Safran (I own), Airbus (I own), Saint James (STJ LN - I own), Sartorius Stedim Biotech (I don't own), Aena (I own), Richemont (I don't own), Heidelberg Materials (I own).  Amrize is a Swiss company but 100% US business, I own it.   If you want to count Israel as a European country, then Tel-Aviv stock exchange (I own), but I would wait for a pull-back,  I would NOT buy it here.  If I had a mountain of cash fall into my lap tomorrow, I would buy all of the above EXCEPT for Tel-Aviv stock exchange.  

Also, I don't know the business well, but Ferrovial seems to fit the bill as well.

Edited March 18 by Marco Van Basten

[John Hjorth]

1 hour ago, adventurer said:

Slightly off-topic, yet I will give it a go even if I risk a slap in the face: Anyone has any ideas for long-term European compounders like FFH and BRK (though maybe not the same quality)? Ideally listed within the European Union and re-investing earnings i/o paying divs. 

 

@adventurer,

 

It may be off-topic, but to equip this topic with some balance, it's great. 

 

In Sweden, there exists this special butterhole, tax heaven, for taxation of Swedish investment conglomerates :  You will likely incur a tax leakage on some nominal dividends, but what about for the Swedish holding company in the conglomarate getting tax deductions for dividends paid out to you, combined with no deferred taxes of unrealized gains on listed investments? [,wich BRK and FFH can't offer.]

 

We have a topic here on CofB&F about  Investor AB, but to really understand the inner workings of this Swedish tax mechanism for such companies, you have to study Industrivärden AB, simpler than Investor A, and pure-play listed investments, which Investor AB is not, so it is hard to study by studying Investor AB.

 

I own them both.

[TwoCitiesCapital]

I believe there was a separate thread for dynastic, European hold cos at one point. 

 

I have owned Exor since ~2015 myself.

 

I've been watching the European luxury names like Richemont, Montblanc, and LVMH to enter - almost got there last year but still waiting. 

[UK]

3 hours ago, adventurer said:

Slightly off-topic, yet I will give it a go even if I risk a slap in the face: Anyone has any ideas for long-term European compounders like FFH and BRK (though maybe not the same quality)? Ideally listed within the European Union and re-investing earnings i/o paying divs. 

Eurofins.

[UK]

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/one-battle-after-another-iran-war-deals-new-blow-to-europes-industrial-heartland-4574228

[Dalal.Holdings]

12 hours ago, UK said:

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/one-battle-after-another-iran-war-deals-new-blow-to-europes-industrial-heartland-4574228

Quote

After years battling the fallout from the global pandemic, the spike in energy costs triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and then punishing U.S. tariffs, war in the Middle East is ramping up the cost of key raw materials once again.

Quote

"There's just no letup. Every year profits get a little smaller, and eventually they're gone," Nighswonger said at the firm's plant in Kleinkarlbach, where she now holds daily crisis meetings and takes out her frustrations on a punching bag. "It's exhausting, and you just don't know what to do anymore."

 

Be careful--discussing such things as energy costs in this thread is irrelevant (according to some). You might upset some people.

 

Many Europeans voted to elect the leaders who made their continent critically vulnerable. I don't expect a lot of them to understand that they made mistakes.

 

My mistake? Not riding EQNR the past few weeks...

 

Quote

Founded in 1861, Gechem is emblematic of Germany's Mittelstand, a term for the 3.4 million mid-sized firms that employ over 33 million people and generate more than half the economic output in the world's third largest economy.

 

Gechem had sales of 46 million euros last year and employs 165 people but has frozen hiring and, for the first time in two decades, is no longer ruling out job cuts, Nighswonger said.

Quote

Besides the disruption to oil and gas markets, supplies of fertilisers, sulphur, helium, aluminium, polyethylene and other critical raw materials have been hit by Iran's chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping costs have surged on the back of higher fuel prices as well.

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"The situation will hit our small- and medium-sized businesses especially hard, as many of them have no way to switch their supply of raw materials at short notice," Wolfgang Grosse Entrup, managing director at German chemicals association VCI, said.

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Even before the Iran war, Germany's Mittelstand was suffering from recent crises. According to Germany's statistics office, 24,064 mostly small and mid-sized firms filed for insolvency in 2025, the highest number since 2014.

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Germany's Lanxess, which had revenue of 5.7 billion euros last year, said on Thursday it would cut 550 jobs and was raising prices as soon as its own costs increased.

"We monitor the situation in the Middle East on a daily basis now," Lanxess CEO Matthias Zachert told reporters.

I guess Lanxess should move to the United States if it wants to lower its input costs

 

Edited March 23 by Dalal.Holdings

[John Hjorth]

1 hour ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

My mistake? Not riding EQNR the past few weeks...

 

I am, after thinking about bit more about it, before this Iran-thingy blew off.

 

Buying it 19^th January 2026, just below NOK 250, it's now approx. NOK 375. Admitted somewhat thesis drift, bought it because Equior ASA in instrumental in keeping the lights on in Europe related to the Ukrainia thingy, now both Gazprom and Rosneft are out of the equation.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Some of what you post about the European energy situation may apply to some European countries, but certainly not all. It's totally different in the Norhern European, Nordic countries.

 

It's just your usual generalizations here.

[cubsfan]

2 hours ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

 

Be careful--discussing such things as energy costs in this thread is irrelevant (according to some). You might upset some people.

 

Many Europeans voted to elect the leaders who made their continent critically vulnerable. I don't expect a lot of them to understand that they made mistakes.

 

My mistake? Not riding EQNR the past few weeks...

 

I guess Lanxess should move to the United States if it wants to lower its input costs

 

 

It's a shame to see. The Germans are such great business people.

[Dalal.Holdings]

1 hour ago, John Hjorth said:

 

Some of what you post about the European energy situation may apply to some European countries, but certainly not all. It's totally different in the Norhern European, Nordic countries.

 

It's just your usual generalizations here.

The problem, of course, is that most big industrial European companies (auto, chemical, steel, etc) that people would want to invest in are based in places like Germany, UK.

 

They are not in small Nordic countries. And these two nations (Germany, UK) have really screwed up their energy policies, so these large industries have borne the brunt of that. As a result, there have been large losses in share prices, jobs, and impacts to suppliers and other adjacent industries (car parts, staffing agencies, raw materials, etc).

 

So no, I am not “generalizing” or cherry picking. I am focused on two major economies in Europe where most of the industrial capacity has been traditionally concentrated. Germany in particular has been the industrial powerhouse of Europe. And these two nations engaged in suicidal energy policies.

 

Why would a country like Denmark’s energy or Norway or Sweden really matter? Companies like Novo or Ikea are based there which are not as energy intensive.

[Dalal.Holdings]

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/europe-scrounges-for-gas-supplies-in-wake-of-iran-war-a4937435

 

Quote

For the second time in four years, Europe is hunting for new natural-gas supplies after a war exposed its vulnerability to the geopolitics of energy.

The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has halted Qatar’s production of liquefied natural gas, or LNG, trapping 20% of global supplies of the fuel behind the Strait of Hormuz and sending prices surging. Damage to Qatari LNG plants from Iranian strikes could take years to repair.

That is a big problem for Europe, which has relied heavily on LNG to replace Russian pipeline gas since the invasion of Ukraine began in 2022.

European leaders are either incompetent or negligent in not preparing their continent for the real world

[John Hjorth]

On 3/24/2026 at 12:29 AM, Dalal.Holdings said:

The problem, of course, is that most big industrial European companies (auto, chemical, steel, etc) that people would want to invest in are based in places like Germany, UK.

 

They are not in small Nordic countries. And these two nations (Germany, UK) have really screwed up their energy policies, so these large industries have borne the brunt of that. As a result, there have been large losses in share prices, jobs, and impacts to suppliers and other adjacent industries (car parts, staffing agencies, raw materials, etc).

 

So no, I am not “generalizing” or cherry picking. I am focused on two major economies in Europe where most of the industrial capacity has been traditionally concentrated. Germany in particular has been the industrial powerhouse of Europe. And these two nations engaged in suicidal energy policies.

 

Why would a country like Denmark’s energy or Norway or Sweden really matter? Companies like Novo or Ikea are based there which are not as energy intensive.

 

@Dalal.Holdings,

 

What is it, that you're trying to make your points here?

 

This has nothing to do with individual population sizes of countries.

 

This has to do with the size of oil and gas reservoirs [available proven reserves] belonging to each individual country in Europe, and the willingness to share that ressource with neighbours, and others, on business conditions.

[Dalal.Holdings]

2 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

 

@Dalal.Holdings,

 

What is it, that you're trying to make your points here?

 

This has nothing to do with individual population sizes of countries.

 

This has to do with the size of oil and gas reservoirs [available proven reserves] belonging to each individual country in Europe, and the willingness to share that ressource with neighbours, and others, on business conditions.

Ugh. Impossible to discuss anything without you responding with irrelevant stuff. You asked me why I harp so much about the energy situation in Germany & the UK and I responded -- clearly -- with why that is very important to someone looking to invest in Europe. If you still don't understand, I can't do anything to help you.

 

P.S. I have already acknowledged the superior position of Norway's energy policy (and contrasted it with that of UK which has access to North Sea and has squandered it).

 

It's really not that hard to understand.

[John Hjorth]

The solution to the German energy situation is to substitute former Russian gas with gas from Equinors gasfields, primarily Johan Sverdrup field. Norway has so much of this stuff that those opportunistic bastards actually are selling it, and getting even richer.

 

I have posted about Baltic Pibe line before. Why hasen't Germany not acted like Poland before?

 

Same with power to the German Industrial complex down in Germany.

 

First thing that happens when there is surplus power in the Nordpool power market, the sluices in the dams in especially Norway are closed, and power is exported across the North Sea and down to Germany.

 

When there is over a certain limit of power sent to Germany, the Germans cut the cord, and the raw price on power in the nordpool market goes negative!

 

The Germans cut the cord because the German powergrid is not yet calibrated to transport, move such amounts of power southbound to the German industrial complex.

 

My household run on 100 percent green power, bought spot. Switched to that around six years ago, which has saved quite some money, because of this 'Germany thingy'.

 

To fix those two issues for Germany is not a gigantic, unsurmountable task for a country like Germany.

 

It is about connecting the dots.

[Spekulatius]

6 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

The solution to the German energy situation is to substitute former Russian gas with gas from Equinors gasfields, primarily Johan Sverdrup field. Norway has so much of this stuff that those opportunistic bastards actually are selling it, and getting even richer.

 

I have posted about Baltic Pibe line before. Why hasen't Germany not acted like Poland before?

 

Same with power to the German Industrial complex down in Germany.

 

First thing that happens when there is surplus power in the Nordpool power market, the sluices in the dams in especially Norway are closed, and power is exported across the North Sea and down to Germany.

 

When there is over a certain limit of power sent to Germany, the Germans cut the cord, and the raw price on power in the nordpool market goes negative!

 

The Germans cut the cord because the German powergrid is not yet calibrated to transport, move such amounts of power southbound to the German industrial complex.

 

My household run on 100 percent green power, bought spot. Switched to that around six years ago, which has saved quite some money, because of this 'Germany thingy'.

 

To fix those two issues for Germany is not a gigantic, unsurmountable task for a country like Germany.

 

It is about connecting the dots.

Almost 50% of Germany NG comes from Norway now. Norway has largest replaced  Russian NG.