Beginning of the End of Car Ownership as We Know It

[Parsad]

5 hours ago, Castanza said:

Not only that but it completely ignores simple things like:

 

- Random emergency

- Popping over to a friends/parents

- Kids sporting events/practice

- Random schedule changes

- Forgot the avocado on taco Tuesday

- Joy ride on a lazy afternoon evening

- Helping a buddy move something 

 

The amount of random “I need a vehicle now” moments there are in life makes the planning and waiting aspect of this ride hailing dubious at best. 
 

Also zero chance I want to send my car out while I’m not using it to taxi random people around. People have no respect for others things. Have enough friend who did Uber that have enough stories of people kissing, throwing trash, smoking, getting to third base etc. all in their car. That only goes up with a driverless vehicle imo. No way I want that stuff in my “family car”. 

 

If there ever is a world where we don’t own vehicles (or other things as World Economic Forum/UN has said) I hope I and my children’s children are long dead by that time. 
 

People who come up with predictions like this seem to think the world is binary like a SIMS game. Ignores the nuance that makes life beautiful and human imo. 

 

- Random emergency...if a vehicle is in front of your door as soon as you are dressed and walk out the front...how is that any less efficient than your own vehicle.  And it won't be stressed, driving erratically or tired.

- Popping over to a friends/parents...no different than if you drove them yourself.

- Kids sporting events/practice...again same.  Simply schedule the car to come when you need it.

- Random schedule changes...if you are a single car family and have two or more people using that vehicle, this would be far more efficient and easier for random events.

- Forgot the avocado on taco Tuesday...groceries can be delivered to your door within a half hour these days...I do 90% of my grocery shopping by delivery.

- Joy ride on a lazy afternoon evening...sure, pleasure owners will still own...but you could as easily hop into an autonomous vehicle and have it drive you all day, while the cost would be less than owning your own vehicle and doing the same thing!

- Helping a buddy move something...this might be more efficient...have the truck arrive when you need it, program the destination it needs to go to after you load, and meet it there to unload at the time you desire.  This would be especially efficient for interstate moves.  Load up the truck, program it and set it on its way in Los Angeles and it will meet you in New York 4 days later.  You leisurely book your flight to get there whenever you want before the truck arrives...you're not driving for days, you're not tired...truck moves 24/7 over 4 days while you get some sleep!

 

Almost anything your surmise, would probably be either cheaper, easier or as efficient as owning your own vehicle.  Cheers!

 

[Sweet]

Possibly in big cities like others have said but I personally don’t see myself ever giving up a car.  It’s just too handy.  I also don’t trust those autopilot cars.  I can see it being a thing in some areas though, I know several people who don’t own a car and see no interest in having one.

[Castanza]

5 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

- Random emergency...if a vehicle is in front of your door as soon as you are dressed and walk out the front...how is that any less efficient than your own vehicle.  And it won't be stressed, driving erratically or tired.

- Popping over to a friends/parents...no different than if you drove them yourself.

- Kids sporting events/practice...again same.  Simply schedule the car to come when you need it.

- Random schedule changes...if you are a single car family and have two or more people using that vehicle, this would be far more efficient and easier for random events.

- Forgot the avocado on taco Tuesday...groceries can be delivered to your door within a half hour these days...I do 90% of my grocery shopping by delivery.

- Joy ride on a lazy afternoon evening...sure, pleasure owners will still own...but you could as easily hop into an autonomous vehicle and have it drive you all day, while the cost would be less than owning your own vehicle and doing the same thing!

- Helping a buddy move something...this might be more efficient...have the truck arrive when you need it, program the destination it needs to go to after you load, and meet it there to unload at the time you desire.  This would be especially efficient for interstate moves.  Load up the truck, program it and set it on its way in Los Angeles and it will meet you in New York 4 days later.  You leisurely book your flight to get there whenever you want before the truck arrives...you're not driving for days, you're not tired...truck moves 24/7 over 4 days while you get some sleep!

 

Almost anything your surmise, would probably be either cheaper, easier or as efficient as owning your own vehicle.  Cheers!

 

You’re not seriously considering the time involved here. Unless there are hundred vehicles queued in automated garages outside of every neighborhood then there is no way this is the same. 
 

If I call an Uber to my place right now it’s 20 min to wait. Most places in the country probably don’t have more than 5 Ubers etc.

 

 If I have an emergency, I’m going to grab my kid get in the car and drive. Takes 10 seconds. All you need in an emergency situation is an automated car with a flat tire that refuses to drive any further. A random construction zone or loss of signal that half’s the car. Or worse, a no car available situation.
 

All the situations I described above would add 20+ minutes into every situation. 
 

Extrapolate these situations to millions of people and you need a massive pool of vehicles in extremely close locations. The automation you’re describing is a very different use case than what Ubers are being used for now for 90% of the population. 
 

Where are you going to put them all? Who’s going to own all the real estate and maintain those garages. Is the infrastructure sufficient? 
 

It’s going to be more of a struggle in cities than people think as well. 
 

—————

 

Try it out for a week! Commit to using Uber for everything for a week 
 

Parsad I do admire your commitment to looking forward on things though! I just think with vehicle automation, it’s been never ending promises since the 1920’s Worlds Fair 

 

 

Edited August 12, 2023 by Castanza

[rkbabang]

The real benefits to come with autonomous vehicles come with autonomous flying drones which pick you up minutes from when you call them and fly you point to point to your destination. No traffic, no roads, no crazy human drivers to worry about. There will never be flying cars with human pilots, but in many ways flying drones are easier than driverless cars that need to be in the ground around humans and other obstacles.

[CorpRaider]

First it will replace all the $170K drivers.  hah!

[frommi]

If people would approach cars economically no one would drive big pickups and everyone would drive along in 5-10 year old Toyotas. Reality looks quite different. Whats also really missing here is that your own car gives you the freedom to drive whereever whenever you like. Need that one thing that your wife needs for cooking asap? Have fun finding a ready autonomous car that picks you up in 60 seconds stays at the store for 10 minutes and brings you back  .
This freedom is probably the reason car ownership is so high right now.

[Castanza]

4 minutes ago, frommi said:

If people would approach cars economically no one would drive big pickups and everyone would drive along in 5-10 year old Toyotas. Reality looks quite different. Whats also really missing here is that your own car gives you the freedom to drive whereever whenever you like. Need that one thing that your wife needs for cooking asap? Have fun finding a ready autonomous car that picks you up in 60 seconds stays at the store for 10 minutes and brings you back  .
This freedom is probably the reason car ownership is so high right now.

Exactly

 

Autonomous cars might be good for planned activities, but for all the random gotta go now things they simply aren’t practical. Grocery delivery is great, but you often have to schedule it a few hours out. There is no, “shit I forgot the onion” orders one on app and it’s at your door 5 minutes later. 
 

If I had to use an autonomous car for every household project I do, I would be bankrupt from ride fees to and from the hardware store

[cwericb]

7 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

No, that won't change for pleasure owners.  But you might drive your car less frequently and take the driverless car for other chores.  The greatest impact will be in urban centers and suburbs of large urban centers.  You'll also get rid of a lot of vehicles on freeways, which will make driving and times more efficient.

 

Wait till you start to see driverless 18 wheelers!  Moving goods 24/7!  Autonomous ports/cranes.  Autonomous trains.  Autonomous shipping (already there).  And lastly, autonomous aircraft flying in and out of major airports with seamless precision.  Cheers!

 

Well that's a scary scenario.

 

Might as well continue that fantasy to the point no one has a job in this future Utopia.

 

And what happens when some bright teenager hacks into the software this all depends on. Seems that happened to Dodge back not long ago.

[cubsfan]

Will everyone on the Gulf coast give up their car ownership with the inevitable hurricane evacuation coming down the pike?

 

Can you imagine the chaos?

 

I doubt it 

[cwericb]

23 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

Will everyone on the Gulf coast give up their car ownership with the inevitable hurricane evacuation coming down the pike?

 

Can you imagine the chaos?

 

I doubt it 

 

 

 THAT.  Never mind the Gulf coast, I'm in Atlantic Canada where we have had two devastating hurricanes in just the past 3 years, so that covers the whole Atlantic seaboard and involves more than a few people.

 

PS. Imagine evacuation orders when cities are threatened with fire or severe weather. Yeah, try calling an Uber.

 

And can you just imagine the chaos in winter in the snow belt? Where sensors freeze up or constantly get covered with snow and ice. Combine that with snow drifts and whiteouts that  obliterate normal landmarks and snow covered roads. Then add in power outages that sometimes can last for days and where stop lights and charging stations no longer work. 

Edited August 12, 2023 by cwericb

[cubsfan]

^^^ And of course, the advocates will tell you - it'll all be ok and be handled. 

 

Just like all those financial models that blow up with the 1 in 100 year events that happen every couple of years.

 

Like anyone is going to risk their family's safety and welfare...

[rohitc99]

But it can always be incremental ? instead of 3 cars, maybe have 1 or 2 cars/ family. also with EV + Autonomous, number of driven miles on owned car comes down which means owners have the same cars longer. 

 

Car then becomes like an insurance or high end cars for pleasure 

[cwericb]

42 minutes ago, rohitc99 said:

But it can always be incremental ? instead of 3 cars, maybe have 1 or 2 cars/ family. also with EV + Autonomous, number of driven miles on owned car comes down which means owners have the same cars longer. 

 

Car then becomes like an insurance or high end cars for pleasure 

 

So when a natural disaster strikes effecting millions of people and evacuation orders are in place....? If that happens to me, my car is in my driveway with a tank full of gas. Meanwhile, you are trying to call an Uber, but the cell towers are down and poles and trees block or partially block many roads and the power is out. Good luck...

Edited August 12, 2023 by cwericb

[rohitc99]

26 minutes ago, cwericb said:

 

So when a natural disaster strikes effecting millions of people and evacuation orders are in place....? If that happens to me, my car is in my driveway with a tank full of gas. While you are trying to call an Uber, but the cell towers are down and poles and trees block or partially blocking many roads and the power is out. Good luck...

thats why i said that instead of 3 cars, people keep 1 or 2 cars for such eventuality. anyway outside of north america, a lot of people already follow this model. have 1 or 2 cars and use public transport which is being replaced by uber and other ride sharing

[Castanza]

42 minutes ago, cwericb said:

 

So when a natural disaster strikes effecting millions of people and evacuation orders are in place....? If that happens to me, my car is in my driveway with a tank full of gas. Meanwhile, you are trying to call an Uber, but the cell towers are down and poles and trees block or partially block many roads and the power is out. Good luck...

People don’t think of the minutiae. Even the emergency room visit….say you have to call an autonomous car. It takes 10minutes to show up. Ok someone is bleeding or your wife is pregnant and going into labor. Could be a major mess in the car. Let’s go further. Say you get stuck behind a slower vehicle on two lane road with double lines. The autonomous vehicle would just ride behind it where a human could make the judgement call to pass in a clear spot. Or say you pull up to the hospital. Where does the autonomous car go? There is ALWAYS something happening in front of the emergency entrance be it ambulance parked, traffic cones, blockage etc. does the autonomous vehicle know how to get you close and avoid those obstacles? Doubtful lol will probably stop 400 ft away and refuse to budge leaving you in a pickle. Now you have to get out of the vehicle, go flag someone down. But do you bring the person with you? Will the car leave with them in it if you get out? 
 

People forget how much nuance their is to driving and situations. It’s kind of amazing considering how often people do it. Perhaps this is why these theories mostly come from city centers where people just get in a cab and stare at their phone until they get to their location. 

[Castanza]

18 minutes ago, rohitc99 said:

thats why i said that instead of 3 cars, people keep 1 or 2 cars for such eventuality. anyway outside of north america, a lot of people already follow this model. have 1 or 2 cars and use public transport which is being replaced by uber and other ride sharing

Outside of North America cities are setup for this. Most cities in the US are not conducive for public transport. Especially true the further you get from the top 10 cities. 

[cwericb]

 

22 minutes ago, rohitc99 said:

thats why i said that instead of 3 cars, people keep 1 or 2 cars for such eventuality. anyway outside of north america, a lot of people already follow this model. have 1 or 2 cars and use public transport which is being replaced by uber and other ride sharing

 

Well aside from sort of defeating the whole purpose, there are a lot of people who do not have 2 or 3 cars nor the space to park them. Public transport is great if you live in major built up areas, but in North America it simply is not practical in many places. For instance, in many countries you can drive from one side of the country to the other in a matter of hours. here it takes the better part of a week.

[cwericb]

10 minutes ago, Castanza said:

People don’t think of the minutiae. Even the emergency room visit….say you have to call an autonomous car. It takes 10minutes to show up. Ok someone is bleeding or your wife is pregnant and going into labor. Could be a major mess in the car. Let’s go further. Say you get stuck behind a slower vehicle on two lane road with double lines. The autonomous vehicle would just ride behind it where a human could make the judgement call to pass in a clear spot. Or say you pull up to the hospital. Where does the autonomous car go? There is ALWAYS something happening in front of the emergency entrance be it ambulance parked, traffic cones, blockage etc. does the autonomous vehicle know how to get you close and avoid those obstacles? Doubtful lol will probably stop 400 ft away and refuse to budge leaving you in a pickle. Now you have to get out of the vehicle, go flag someone down. But do you bring the person with you? Will the car leave with them in it if you get out? 
 

People forget how much nuance their is to driving and situations. It’s kind of amazing considering how often people do it. Perhaps this is why these theories mostly come from city centers where people just get in a cab and stare at their phone until they get to their location. 

 

Yup. The overall idea seems very Utopian, but when you look at the details, reality rears its ugly head.

However, once AI takes over the world, well then I guess we well just have to do what we are told to do.  

Edited August 12, 2023 by cwericb

[bizaro86]

18 hours ago, Castanza said:

Not only that but it completely ignores simple things like:

 

- Random emergency

- Popping over to a friends/parents

- Kids sporting events/practice

- Random schedule changes

- Forgot the avocado on taco Tuesday

- Joy ride on a lazy afternoon evening

- Helping a buddy move something 

 

The amount of random “I need a vehicle now” moments there are in life makes the planning and waiting aspect of this ride hailing dubious at best. 
 

Also zero chance I want to send my car out while I’m not using it to taxi random people around. People have no respect for others things. Have enough friend who did Uber that have enough stories of people kissing, throwing trash, smoking, getting to third base etc. all in their car. That only goes up with a driverless vehicle imo. No way I want that stuff in my “family car”. 

 

If there ever is a world where we don’t own vehicles (or other things as World Economic Forum/UN has said) I hope I and my children’s children are long dead by that time. 
 

People who come up with predictions like this seem to think the world is binary like a SIMS game. Ignores the nuance that makes life beautiful and human imo. 

 

I'm in Melbourne on vacation and have been taking Uber everywhere except the day we did a road trip (rented a car for 1 day). I haven't waited longer than 60 seconds to be picked up, and that was with drivers. 

 

People will only switch from their own car if autonomous taxis are just as convenient or cheaper (and some people won't switch unless it's both). 

 

If you don't need a driver and insurance is cheap due to few accidents, you really only have capital costs. That means you can have many, many cars on the road, which keeps the convenience high. If capital costs come down (and the autonomous part is mostly a software/sensors problem) the cost should also come down.

 

It might take 5 years or 25 but it'll happen.

[Castanza]

16 minutes ago, bizaro86 said:

 

I'm in Melbourne on vacation and have been taking Uber everywhere except the day we did a road trip (rented a car for 1 day). I haven't waited longer than 60 seconds to be picked up, and that was with drivers. 

 

People will only switch from their own car if autonomous taxis are just as convenient or cheaper (and some people won't switch unless it's both). 

 

If you don't need a driver and insurance is cheap due to few accidents, you really only have capital costs. That means you can have many, many cars on the road, which keeps the convenience high. If capital costs come down (and the autonomous part is mostly a software/sensors problem) the cost should also come down.

 

It might take 5 years or 25 but it'll happen.

 Melbourne is a big city . I mean you could say that about any futurism ideas. Lyft said in 2016 that half of their vehicles would be autonomous by 2021….now experts are yet again pushing back that timeline to 2035. The promise of autonomous cars was announced in 1939 and the New York Worlds Fair by General Morors. The timeline was 20 years LOL….here we are almost 100 years later and albeit much closer, still a long way to go. I mean GMs Cruze still can’t navigate “unexpected construction zones” and just pulls over in traffic causing jams. There is easily 20 years of regulatory red tape to deal with. Let alone proper connectivity and other key infrastructure. I mean you can go 1 hour outside of a lot of major cities in the US and find areas with dial up internet poor cell service and dirt roads. Same for Canada. 
 

Eventually! But just my opinion it will be a bit. Maybe AI accelerates it? Can’t help but think it’s more bark than bite at this point. Innovation usually happens in the areas people don’t discuss in the media. 

[bizaro86]

1 hour ago, Castanza said:

 Melbourne is a big city . I mean you could say that about any futurism ideas. Lyft said in 2016 that half of their vehicles would be autonomous by 2021….now experts are yet again pushing back that timeline to 2035. The promise of autonomous cars was announced in 1939 and the New York Worlds Fair by General Morors. The timeline was 20 years LOL….here we are almost 100 years later and albeit much closer, still a long way to go. I mean GMs Cruze still can’t navigate “unexpected construction zones” and just pulls over in traffic causing jams. There is easily 20 years of regulatory red tape to deal with. Let alone proper connectivity and other key infrastructure. I mean you can go 1 hour outside of a lot of major cities in the US and find areas with dial up internet poor cell service and dirt roads. Same for Canada. 
 

Eventually! But just my opinion it will be a bit. Maybe AI accelerates it? Can’t help but think it’s more bark than bite at this point. Innovation usually happens in the areas people don’t discuss in the media. 

 

I agree with all of that - there are a number of issues that will be difficult. But it isnt the same as fusion (another one that is always 10 years away), where the issues are the laws of physics. This one the biggest issues are human laws and risk tolerance - I think self drivers are probably approx as good as the average human now. But San Francisco is a bastion of over-regulating everything, and if they're allowing commercial use it's definitely getting closer.

 

Melbourne is definitely a big city, and big cities will naturally be early adopters for this. But the cost of having a human driving the car is really significant - if you eliminate that part the cost of having a car at all times within 60 seconds probably goes down enough that spreads to the suburbs and smaller cities. So they have a huge percentage of the market to work with- if it's never practical for rural areas that doesn't matter given the relative populations.

[Castanza]

38 minutes ago, bizaro86 said:

 

I agree with all of that - there are a number of issues that will be difficult. But it isnt the same as fusion (another one that is always 10 years away), where the issues are the laws of physics. This one the biggest issues are human laws and risk tolerance - I think self drivers are probably approx as good as the average human now. But San Francisco is a bastion of over-regulating everything, and if they're allowing commercial use it's definitely getting closer.

 

Melbourne is definitely a big city, and big cities will naturally be early adopters for this. But the cost of having a human driving the car is really significant - if you eliminate that part the cost of having a car at all times within 60 seconds probably goes down enough that spreads to the suburbs and smaller cities. So they have a huge percentage of the market to work with- if it's never practical for rural areas that doesn't matter given the relative populations.

One thing to think about is contingencies for mid to smaller cities and towns. Where are these centers of autonomous vehicles? Do the economics make sense there? What happens in a power outage? Is their fail over? Is there enough bandwidth in the town? Is there the staff/knowledge to support these sites? Tbh not sure what the requirements are for something like this. But if it’s anything close to data centers then you’re really limiting where these centers or hubs can be placed. I mean in the US you have vast differences between states, and even cities within the same states!  Move outside the US and a select few western nations and it’s basically impossible. How do the economics work in such a limited global market? 

Edited August 12, 2023 by Castanza

[Parsad]

10 hours ago, Castanza said:

You’re not seriously considering the time involved here. Unless there are hundred vehicles queued in automated garages outside of every neighborhood then there is no way this is the same. 
 

If I call an Uber to my place right now it’s 20 min to wait. Most places in the country probably don’t have more than 5 Ubers etc.

 

 If I have an emergency, I’m going to grab my kid get in the car and drive. Takes 10 seconds. All you need in an emergency situation is an automated car with a flat tire that refuses to drive any further. A random construction zone or loss of signal that half’s the car. Or worse, a no car available situation.
 

All the situations I described above would add 20+ minutes into every situation. 
 

Extrapolate these situations to millions of people and you need a massive pool of vehicles in extremely close locations. The automation you’re describing is a very different use case than what Ubers are being used for now for 90% of the population. 
 

Where are you going to put them all? Who’s going to own all the real estate and maintain those garages. Is the infrastructure sufficient? 
 

It’s going to be more of a struggle in cities than people think as well. 
 

—————

 

Try it out for a week! Commit to using Uber for everything for a week 
 

Parsad I do admire your commitment to looking forward on things though! I just think with vehicle automation, it’s been never ending promises since the 1920’s Worlds Fair 

 

 

 

Yes, there would be depots with cars added and removed as demand requires.  The space would be created from all of the vehicles not on the road any longer owned privately.  

 

In an emergency, you could as easily have a flat and need to change the tire.  Most vehicles would have run-flats as well.  My cars for the last 8 years have all had run-flats...good for 200km up to 80 km/hr even when totally flat.  I had one pop after hitting a huge pothole on the way to Bellevue.  Drove all the way no problem and then took it to OK Tire the next morning.  Future autonomous electric vehicles have fewer operating parts or service requirements...they will be far more reliable in an emergency then your vehicle today.

 

It would be far better than UBER.  That's why UBER is working on autonomous vehicles as well.  They know that's the future.  Cheers!

[Parsad]

8 hours ago, frommi said:

If people would approach cars economically no one would drive big pickups and everyone would drive along in 5-10 year old Toyotas. Reality looks quite different. Whats also really missing here is that your own car gives you the freedom to drive whereever whenever you like. Need that one thing that your wife needs for cooking asap? Have fun finding a ready autonomous car that picks you up in 60 seconds stays at the store for 10 minutes and brings you back  .
This freedom is probably the reason car ownership is so high right now.

 

Yes, presently.  But that is the future.  Also, again...if you're wife needs something, you can have stuff delivered within half an hour to your door these days.  You don't need to get in the car and go to Whole Foods or Costco.  Cheers!

[Parsad]

8 hours ago, cwericb said:

 

Well that's a scary scenario.

 

Might as well continue that fantasy to the point no one has a job in this future Utopia.

 

And what happens when some bright teenager hacks into the software this all depends on. Seems that happened to Dodge back not long ago.

 

There will be a massive disruptive effect to many industries going forward with AI, autonomous vehicles and robotics.  It's why so many people are studying minimum incomes for people.  

 

Occupations like cashiers, taxi drivers, bus drivers, truck drivers, etc are already slowly disappearing.  There will come a day when all of those jobs no longer exist in every major urban center and surrounding areas.  

 

In terms of hacking, so much of our financial, health, personal information is already on servers.  You are already exposed to that risk.  Many vehicles can be started remotely  by hacking already...Tesla's can even be driven remotely.  Cheers!