Beginning of the End of Car Ownership as We Know It

[Parsad]

6 hours ago, cwericb said:

 

 

 THAT.  Never mind the Gulf coast, I'm in Atlantic Canada where we have had two devastating hurricanes in just the past 3 years, so that covers the whole Atlantic seaboard and involves more than a few people.

 

PS. Imagine evacuation orders when cities are threatened with fire or severe weather. Yeah, try calling an Uber.

 

And can you just imagine the chaos in winter in the snow belt? Where sensors freeze up or constantly get covered with snow and ice. Combine that with snow drifts and whiteouts that  obliterate normal landmarks and snow covered roads. Then add in power outages that sometimes can last for days and where stop lights and charging stations no longer work. 

 

Look at what happened in Maui.  Huge lineups on the single lane highway.  If you have fewer vehicles on the road, traffic will move smoothly in emergencies.  Fewer accidents in emergencies...less disruption.  

 

Cheers!

[Parsad]

1 hour ago, bizaro86 said:

 

I agree with all of that - there are a number of issues that will be difficult. But it isnt the same as fusion (another one that is always 10 years away), where the issues are the laws of physics. This one the biggest issues are human laws and risk tolerance - I think self drivers are probably approx as good as the average human now. But San Francisco is a bastion of over-regulating everything, and if they're allowing commercial use it's definitely getting closer.

 

Melbourne is definitely a big city, and big cities will naturally be early adopters for this. But the cost of having a human driving the car is really significant - if you eliminate that part the cost of having a car at all times within 60 seconds probably goes down enough that spreads to the suburbs and smaller cities. So they have a huge percentage of the market to work with- if it's never practical for rural areas that doesn't matter given the relative populations.

 

Autonomous vehicles are actually far better than the average driver.  Estimated that presently, autonomous vehicles would be able to reduce 90% of accidents.  But that isn't good enough.  Engineers want to get that number to 99.9% which is probably a decade out.  Cheers!

[Castanza]

11 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

Yes, presently.  But that is the future.  Also, again...if you're wife needs something, you can have stuff delivered within half an hour to your door these days.  You don't need to get in the car and go to Whole Foods or Costco.  Cheers!

 

16 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

Yes, there would be depots with cars added and removed as demand requires.  The space would be created from all of the vehicles not on the road any longer owned privately.  

 

In an emergency, you could as easily have a flat and need to change the tire.  Most vehicles would have run-flats as well.  My cars for the last 8 years have all had run-flats...good for 200km up to 80 km/hr even when totally flat.  I had one pop after hitting a huge pothole on the way to Bellevue.  Drove all the way no problem and then took it to OK Tire the next morning.  Future autonomous electric vehicles have fewer operating parts or service requirements...they will be far more reliable in an emergency then your vehicle today.

 

It would be far better than UBER.  That's why UBER is working on autonomous vehicles as well.  They know that's the future.  Cheers!

Uber is working on autonomous vehicles because they would no longer have to pay humans. 
 

I disagree on the emergency aspect. If it’s better why aren’t ambulances and fire trucks the first to get automated? Even planes which can fly themselves require humans. 
 

Lots of things sound great on paper! 

[Parsad]

1 hour ago, Castanza said:

One thing to think about is contingencies for mid to smaller cities and towns. Where are these centers of autonomous vehicles? Do the economics make sense there? What happens in a power outage? Is their fail over? Is there enough bandwidth in the town? Is there the staff/knowledge to support these sites? Tbh not sure what the requirements are for something like this. But if it’s anything close to data centers then you’re really limiting where these centers or hubs can be placed. I mean in the US you have vast differences between states, and even cities within the same states!  Move outside the US and a select few western nations and it’s basically impossible. How do the economics work in such a limited global market? 

 

You are already at risk for this when the power goes out, wifi/internet goes out, gas stations don't get fuel delivery, etc.  You'll also have back up battery power stored offsite for recharging.  

 

Yes, you are correct that the economics will make more sense in urban centers.  But that's how all technology works.  Your rural wifi and internet are subsidized by users in urban centers.  Just like your phone was or cable.  It won't be any different.  Cheers! 

[Parsad]

1 minute ago, Castanza said:

 

Uber is working on autonomous vehicles because they would no longer have to pay humans. 
 

I disagree on the emergency aspect. If it’s better why aren’t ambulances and fire trucks the first to get automated? Even planes which can fly themselves require humans. 
 

Lots of things sound great on paper! 

 

Because we don't have robots yet that are suitable or trained for medical assistance or fire fighting.  You still need people for that and probably for another 20-30 years. 

 

With planes, the humans are the backup system presently.  But they will be able to fly themselves no problem in the future.  There is no reason why passenger planes will have to take off horizontally in the future.  Once you remove that risk, autonomous takeoffs and landings will be safer than the average pilot.  Not every pilot is Sully Sullenberger!  

 

Cheers!

[Parsad]

5 minutes ago, Castanza said:

 

Uber is working on autonomous vehicles because they would no longer have to pay humans. 
 

I disagree on the emergency aspect. If it’s better why aren’t ambulances and fire trucks the first to get automated? Even planes which can fly themselves require humans. 
 

Lots of things sound great on paper! 

 

Sorry, I missed the comment on Uber.  Yes, that's part of it.  But they would also have fewer accidents and don't have to worry about not having enough drivers during demand periods. 

 

It will actually reduce surge pricing since they can simply put more vehicles out on the road regardless if staffing is available or not.  Cheers!

[cwericb]

 
What makes anyone think there would be fewer vehicles on the road? And in an emergency with  cars broken down and/or stuck in a snowstorm, hurricane, or whatever, do you think an autonomous car will have the intellect to take to a sidewalk or cross someone’s lawn to get around downed telephone poles and stranded vehicles in an emergency?

 

But whenever someone here brings up a potential problem here, the answer is always “Well they will have a way to handle that”. Oh? They will?  

                     

If new technology is so great how come - in the United States alone - in just 2022 alone there, were 30,000,000 vehicles recalled for safety issues? Again, that is Over Thirty Million. And today’s vehicles are far less complicated than electric fully autonomous vehicles.

 

And yes, pilots are being greatly assisted by technology. But that same great technology flew a brand new Airbus into the ground a number of years ago and more recently also flew couple of 737 Max’s into the ground.

 

A lot of assumptions are being made here about the infallibility of technology and future autonomous vehicles.

 

In 2016, Fort McMurray in northern Alberta (400 miles North of Calgary) was devastated by a major forest fire that swept through a large portion of the city. The city was evacuated. People had barely time to jump into their cars and trucks to escape. Many had to drive through a nightmare of burning forest, stranded vehicles and other obstructions. The population of Fort Mac at the time was 66,000. With failing power and cell phone connections destroyed, does anyone here see a problem with 60,000 people all trying to call for an Uber at the same time?

[WayWardCloud]

I'm glad we're having this discussion thanks for starting the topic!

 

Fear is an understandable reaction to change but I have to say as a foreigner, respectfully, I'm always baffled to see just how much Americans associate car ownership with their personality/way of life/sense of freedom/political leaning... instead of simply a tool to go from point A to point B. Autonomous companies will have to face a pretty steep wall of passionate resistance because cars are being amalgamated with so much more in the national psyche and they seem to trigger really wild reactions such as road rage even in people who aren't otherwise particularly prone to anger.

 

Like we would for any other product, I suggest focusing our attention on use cases instead of listing everything that it isn't. AVs don't have to be the tool for EVERYTHING and don't have to bring forth "the end of car ownership as we know it" to still be a major new exciting TAM opening up. Focusing on that one theoretical time when there is a snow blizzard and you must haul a grand piano on a dirt road within the next 5 minutes or your family dies is really just masquerading an agenda that's more ideological than rational in my opinion, sorry. People used to argue against seat belts and airbags using stories just like that. See also climate change denial.

 

Yes, we will still need emergency vehicles for emergencies, big trucks to haul big things, gasoline-powered vehicles for long distance trips and off the grid usage, etc But here is what Waymo and Cruise seem about to do:

 

- replacing Uber/Lyft/cabs : cheaper, safer, more reliable, use case is already proven.

- Offering autonomy to people who cannot enjoy it today: handicapped people especially blind, older folks, under 16yo. That is a HUGE cohort. For example Voyage was focusing exclusively on retirement communities before being acquired by Cruise.

- Delivering your Amazon Fresh or Uber eats order to your curb for pickup.

Then as the technology matures and scales, price per mile drops and we get

- replacing one or two of a suburban family's commuter cars and giving all that time back to people to do something else (napping, working) on their way to and back from work. If you have to deal with bumper to bumper  traffic every day I promise you being chauffeured around so you can focus on something else is WAY nicer (Hi Los Angeles!).

- replacing car ownership completely for some people who live in downtown high rises where a parking spot is super expensive and who would rather borrow or rent a car once in a while when they do need it (Hi NYC!).

 

These alone represent over a trillion in TAM. No need to forcefully take away all cars from the cold dead hands of car enthusiasts or whatever the big anxiety seems to be.

 

 

 

 

Edited August 13, 2023 by WayWardCloud

[Castanza]

1 hour ago, WayWardCloud said:

I'm glad we're having this discussion thanks for starting the topic!

 

Fear is an understandable reaction to change but I have to say as a foreigner, respectfully, I'm always baffled to see just how much Americans associate car ownership with their personality/way of life/sense of freedom/political leaning... instead of simply a tool to go from point A to point B. Autonomous companies will have to face a pretty steep wall of passionate resistance because cars are being amalgamated with so much more in the national psyche and they seem to trigger really wild reactions such as road rage even in people who aren't otherwise particularly prone to anger.

 

Like we would for any other product, I suggest focusing our attention on use cases instead of listing everything that it isn't. AVs don't have to be the tool for EVERYTHING and don't have to bring forth "the end of car ownership as we know it" to still be a major new exciting TAM opening up. Focusing on that one theoretical time when there is a snow blizzard and you must haul a grand piano on a dirt road within the next 5 minutes or your family dies is really just masquerading an agenda that's more ideological than rational in my opinion, sorry. People used to argue against seat belts and airbags using stories just like that. See also climate change denial.

 

Yes, we will still need emergency vehicles for emergencies, big trucks to haul big things, gasoline-powered vehicles for long distance trips and off the grid usage, etc But here is what Waymo and Cruise seem about to do:

 

- replacing Uber/Lyft/cabs : cheaper, safer, more reliable, use case is already proven.

- Offering autonomy to people who cannot enjoy it today: handicapped people especially blind, older folks, under 16yo. That is a HUGE cohort. For example Voyage was focusing exclusively on retirement communities before being acquired by Cruise.

- Delivering your Amazon Fresh or Uber eats order to your curb for pickup.

Then as the technology matures and scales, price per mile drops and we get

- replacing one or two of a suburban family's commuter cars and giving all that time back to people to do something else (napping, working) on their way to and back from work. If you have to deal with bumper to bumper  traffic every day I promise you being chauffeured around so you can focus on something else is WAY nicer (Hi Los Angeles!).

- replacing car ownership completely for some people who live in downtown high rises where a parking spot is super expensive and who would rather borrow or rent a car once in a while when they do need it (Hi NYC!).

 

These alone represent over a trillion in TAM. No need to forcefully take away all cars from the cold dead hands of car enthusiasts or whatever the big anxiety seems to be.

 

 

 

 

Have no problem with automated vehicles. Just don’t see the lack of ownership playing out in the US. Europeans seem to forget how big the US is and how systemically different it’s cities, highways, roads and urban sprawl is geographically structured compared to the dense mess of Europe. I very much look forward to being able to hop in MY car and choose to engage auto pilot on say a long commute to the office. Etc. 

 

What doesn’t make sense for 80% of the country is building warehouses with some specific number of vehicles and somehow have to account for all the intricacies of demand. The emergency situation was a single example. Grabbing an onion you forgot from the store is another. Sanjeev mentioned “just have it delivered in 30min to and hour!” Why? I can walk out my door, hop in my car and get be to the store and back in 10 minutes. I use grocery delivery and pickup and you have to schedule out usually more than an hour. 
 

It takes WAY more effort and seems way less economical to try to build out all this infrastructure just to eliminate vehicle ownership. And the cat beat you’re guessing at demand which will ultimately lead to poor service and disruptions. 
 

Better solution is vehicles continue to be self drivable and is able by individuals if they choose, but at the same time have an auto pilot “switch” should you want to take a nap on the way to work. It’s just way more practical, clean and simple. With kids it’s more simple too and you don’t have to deal with the germs and gross stuff of publicly shared things. I don’t really want to deal with whatever mess someone else left in the car before you got it. People often also have extra things stashed in their own cars for their kids or themselves. Anything from diaper bags, back cushions, gum, makeup, clothes, hats, snacks, tablets, car seat bases, etc etc. literally a million different things. Do you really want to have to grab all that stuff every time you need a ride to  somewhere? 

Is there a use case for a fleet of autonomous vehicles owned by XYZ company that can be hailed with the push of a button? YES absolutely! Just not in most of the country. 
 

I live in a town of about 40k people about 35 minutes outside of a much larger city. When I pull up my Uber app there is exactly 3 available drivers in the whole area. There simply would be no demand for a fully autonomous fleet of any significant size here. 

edit: Can’t wait to take my automated Prius to deer camp in upstate New York or Middle of nowhere West Virginia, bag a buck the. Strap it to the hood for the ride back! The company is going to love that when it returns to the hub

Edited August 13, 2023 by Castanza

[Libs]

<Focusing on that one theoretical time when there is a snow blizzard and you must haul a grand piano on a dirt road within the next 5 minutes or your family dies >

 

This made me laugh. 

[crs223]

I’ve been without a car for 3.5 years.  My wife has one and I have an e-bike.  I take the bus if it’s raining and I use Lyft if I’m in a bind.  I take a few Lyft rides per month. We have two kids (7 and 10).  I work at the office 5 days a week which is 9 miles from home.  My town (Santa Barbara) is perfectly “shaped” for bike riding — can get anywhere in 45 minutes.

 

Just the thought of paying sales tax on a new car makes me roll my eyes.

 

All that being said… a friend took me for a ride in a Tesla Plaid a few weeks ago and I can’t stop thinking about it. I’d like to just rent one for a few days.  I’ve seen “Turo” (like Uber but for rental cars).  I wonder if it makes sense to buy a fast Tesla and just rent it out on Turo… probably not.

 

 

 

 

[crs223]

13 hours ago, cwericb said:

And in an emergency with  cars broken down and/or stuck in a snowstorm, hurricane, or whatever

 

Future TV commercial:  flaccid balding e-bike rider burned alive by fire apocalypse…  while suburban dad whisks by in his Hummer 4, with trophy wife and kids playing iPad in the air conditioning!

 

[cubsfan]

3 hours ago, Libs said:

<Focusing on that one theoretical time when there is a snow blizzard and you must haul a grand piano on a dirt road within the next 5 minutes or your family dies >

 

This made me laugh. 

What makes me laugh is how proponents easily dismiss the tail events that are truly life & death.

 

Aw, don’t worry about it - we will handle it just like all our models always do - we’re so smart. Don’t be an old fuddie-duddie stuck in the past.

[Castanza]

54 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

What makes me laugh is how proponents easily dismiss the tail events that are truly life & death.

 

Aw, don’t worry about it - we will handle it just like all our models always do - we’re so smart. Don’t be an old fuddie-duddie stuck in the past.

Lol exactly, are these events even rare anymore? Look at all the wild fires and evacuations or the hurricanes, winter storms, heavy rains, etc. If nobody owns vehicles then you better hope these autonomous vehicles can get people out when their hub is 6ft under water or the grid goes down, or a wild fire blocks roads. These things do matter. 
 

Individual ownership of vehicles that have the option is way more likely imo. Besides cities where parking is an issue, having hubs of autonomous vehicles simple makes zero sense and have very little value add imo. In fact outside of cities I’d say it’s overall negative for utility and use of time. 
 

It’s like the high speed rail people who think everyone in the US should have access. Why? It’s very little value add to a lot of people. It’s similar to Buffetts analogy of upgrading textile equipment with very little benefit vs what you’ve had. The US has a very robust highway and road system (that needs some maintenance) that is easily accessible to everyone. Owning a car is quite cheap in the grand scheme of things and the support infrastructure for owning a vehicle (gas stations, repair shops) is very robust as well. 
 

Solving problems that don’t need to be solved. Want to make driving safer? Add more driver assist tech. ABS saved thousands and thousands of lives with very little additional cost. 

[james22]

1 hour ago, cubsfan said:

What makes me laugh is how proponents easily dismiss the tail events that are truly life & death.

 

Setting aside things that are truly life and death, proponents dismiss as tail events things that are not (simply because they are unfamiliar with them):

 

- RVing.

 

- Overlanding/off-roading.

 

- Trailering your boat/PWC to the lake.

 

- Trailering your ATV/snowmobile/motorcycle to the trail.

 

- Trailering your competition car to the track.

[crs223]

I doubt that life expectancy goes up with car ownership.  But i’m willing to listen and be convinced!  I’ll keep monitoring this thread.

 

This isn’t worth anything, but here’s what ChatGPT says:

 

[bizaro86]

13 hours ago, crs223 said:

I’ve been without a car for 3.5 years.  My wife has one and I have an e-bike.  I take the bus if it’s raining and I use Lyft if I’m in a bind.  I take a few Lyft rides per month. We have two kids (7 and 10).  I work at the office 5 days a week which is 9 miles from home.  My town (Santa Barbara) is perfectly “shaped” for bike riding — can get anywhere in 45 minutes.

 

Just the thought of paying sales tax on a new car makes me roll my eyes.

 

All that being said… a friend took me for a ride in a Tesla Plaid a few weeks ago and I can’t stop thinking about it. I’d like to just rent one for a few days.  I’ve seen “Turo” (like Uber but for rental cars).  I wonder if it makes sense to buy a fast Tesla and just rent it out on Turo… probably not.

 

Probably better to rent a fast Tesla on Turo when you want one.

[Parsad]

11 hours ago, cubsfan said:

What makes me laugh is how proponents easily dismiss the tail events that are truly life & death.

 

Aw, don’t worry about it - we will handle it just like all our models always do - we’re so smart. Don’t be an old fuddie-duddie stuck in the past.

 

Do you call 911 on your dial landline or your cell phone that could at any moment lose connection?  I'm guessing  you don't have a landline.  

 

Adoption of useable technology will change behaviors.  It always has.  And technology will get better and better.

 

No one is saying there won't be car owners.  But that number will shrink by 90% over time as autonomous ride sharing becomes better and better.

 

Cheers!

 

 

[Parsad]

10 hours ago, james22 said:

 

Setting aside things that are truly life and death, proponents dismiss as tail events things that are not (simply because they are unfamiliar with them):

 

- RVing.

 

- Overlanding/off-roading.

 

- Trailering your boat/PWC to the lake.

 

- Trailering your ATV/snowmobile/motorcycle to the trail.

 

- Trailering your competition car to the track.

 

No one is saying that will disappear.  But what percentage of drivers do those things?  Maybe 15-20% at best!

 

Do you think autonomous ride-sharing that is very cheap and efficient won't be adopted because 20% of the population likes to ski?

 

That's not how the world works.  Cheers!

[james22]

6 hours ago, Parsad said:

No one is saying that will disappear.  But what percentage of drivers do those things?  Maybe 15-20% at best!

 

Do you think autonomous ride-sharing that is very cheap and efficient won't be adopted because 20% of the population likes to ski?

 

That's not how the world works.  Cheers!

 

Hey, I love the idea of autonomous ride-sharing getting those who don't like driving (and aren't good at it) from behind the wheel. Makes the roads safer for the rest of us.

 

I just don't see adoption rates above ~50%. Too many like driving or have requirements that won't be accommodated.

 

The world doesn't work like urban sophisticates think it does.

[alexmiddle]

It does not seem that Aibnb has replaced people's desire to own their own vacation home that they utilize only 5-10% a year.  There is a strong bias for people to own something even if it does not make economic sense.  Lots of people own F-150's who only haul 1 big load of gardening supplies from Home Depot every year.  I love Uber, I think autonomous ride sharing is great and will make big strides in grow.  I just think people will be people.  Who would have thought 25 years ago when they introduced self-checkout, we would still have cashiers in major grocery stores?

[rogermunibond]

The condition that riders will leave AVs after a night out makes me think that this will not be nearly as big as some think.

 

Not without some form of buy-in from users to abate the moral hazard of trashing the AV.

 

Given the way US society is currently going this "free rider" problem is real.  Just look at self checkout.

[Castanza]

56 minutes ago, rogermunibond said:

The condition that riders will leave AVs after a night out makes me think that this will not be nearly as big as some think.

 

Not without some form of buy-in from users to abate the moral hazard of trashing the AV.

 

Given the way US society is currently going this "free rider" problem is real.  Just look at self checkout.

 

Frankly if I have an AV that has the ability to be used as a taxi when I'm not using it, there is a zero percent chance I utilize this feature. I would gladly lose out on some miniscule passive income to prevent having Dirty Mike and The Boys trash my car on their trip back from the local watering hole. Sick people, smelly people, cigarette smoking people in my car? No thanks! 

 

I'd wager that about 95%+ of Moms and Dads would agree with me. The only people who would do this are tech bros and youngish single people who are already used to taking public transportation frequently enough. Even then though, you're not responsible for cleaning those amenities like you would be with personal AV lending. 

[rkbabang]

43 minutes ago, rogermunibond said:

The condition that riders will leave AVs after a night out makes me think that this will not be nearly as big as some think.

 

Not without some form of buy-in from users to abate the moral hazard of trashing the AV.

 

Given the way US society is currently going this "free rider" problem is real.  Just look at self checkout.

 

Yes, people in the car unsupervised will trash them.  The seats will be damaged and stained by who knows what.  They will be full of graffiti.   It will be a regular occurrence to have one of these arrive with puke in it on a Saturday night.  people will do all kinds of things they would never do in a taxi or Uber with a driver there.   Anything public is gross.  I don't know about anyone else (maybe I'm just an elitist asshole) is that I wouldn't use an AV ride service even if it was cheaper, quicker, and more convenient.   I get grossed out every time I take a bus, or a subway, or even a plane ride.  I don't want to be around these people, even if it means using the car by myself after they do.   I don't want to sit on the seats or touch the handles/armrests/handholds/etc.    It's the same reason I won't shop at Walmart even if I could save money by doing so.   Even if the AV doesn't get to me smelling like B.O., puke, or piss (as many subway cars always do), I'd be imagining that the last people in it were un-showered, greasy haired, drug attics in their un-washed pajama pants heading to Walmart.   I'll pay more, even a lot more, to drive myself sitting in my clean private car with heated/ventilated leather seats.  I've always said there is only one thing I envy about the ultra-rich.  It isn't their mega-mansions, or their yachts.  It isn't their supercars or anything else.  It's their ability to fly private and avoid, not just the security, but the people at the airport and on the plane.  My wife and I will often take the extra time to drive places when it would have been much easier to fly, or most of the time just avoid traveling altogether simply to avoid air-travel.  Technology isn't really the problem with AVs, like most things, people are.

 

[Castanza]

23 minutes ago, rkbabang said:

 

Yes, people in the car unsupervised will trash them.  The seats will be damaged and stained by who knows what.  They will be full of graffiti.   It will be a regular occurrence to have one of these arrive with puke in it on a Saturday night.  people will do all kinds of things they would never do in a taxi or Uber with a driver there.   Anything public is gross.  I don't know about anyone else (maybe I'm just an elitist asshole) is that I wouldn't use an AV ride service even if it was cheaper, quicker, and more convenient.   I get grossed out every time I take a bus, or a subway, or even a plane ride.  I don't want to be around these people, even if it means using the car by myself after they do.   I don't want to sit on the seats or touch the handles/armrests/handholds/etc.    It's the same reason I won't shop at Walmart even if I could save money by doing so.   Even if the AV doesn't get to me smelling like B.O., puke, or piss (as many subway cars always do), I'd be imagining that the last people in it were un-showered, greasy haired, drug attics in their un-washed pajama pants heading to Walmart.   I'll pay more, even a lot more, to drive myself sitting in my clean private car with heated/ventilated leather seats.  I've always said there is only one thing I envy about the ultra-rich.  It isn't their mega-mansions, or their yachts.  It isn't their supercars or anything else.  It's their ability to fly private and avoid, not just the security, but the people at the airport and on the plane.  My wife and I will often take the extra time to drive places when it would have been much easier to fly, or most of the time just avoid traveling altogether simply to avoid air-travel.  Technology isn't really the problem with AVs, like most things, people are.

 

 

LMFAO  right there with you