Share your Portfolio 2023!

[thepupil]

Just now, RedLion said:

It worries me that everyone is so confident that there will never be anything to worry about at Berkshire. 

 

I think there's plenty to worry about. the biggest question brought about by GEICO/BNSF, is "are companies more valuable within Berkshire or outside it?" There's worries about reinsurance/Jain/etc. the stock picking record, pre-apple was pretty dogshit for a while and i'd expect zero alpha on a $300B+ equity portfolio over the long term. You can find plenty to worry about. 

 

 

[Gregmal]

8 minutes ago, thepupil said:

 

I think there's plenty to worry about. the biggest question brought about by GEICO/BNSF, is "are companies more valuable within Berkshire or outside it?" There's worries about reinsurance/Jain/etc. the stock picking record, pre-apple was pretty dogshit for a while and i'd expect zero alpha on a $300B+ equity portfolio over the long term. You can find plenty to worry about. 

 

 

Agreed. I know more people who worry about Berkshire than ones like me who are just like yea buy it without any research and never follow it and you’ll be fine. At least for the next 5-10 years that’s how I feel. It’s almost as if all the flexing you see in respect to folks pimping “their Berkshire analysis”….is totally pointless.

[gfp]

30 minutes ago, RedLion said:

It worries me that everyone is so confident that there will never be anything to worry about at Berkshire. 

 

Don't worry, Dinar has doubts 

[Jaygo]

I’m half way through the book “lights out the ge story”

 

I think there is lots to worry about with giant conglomerates but the numbers don’t tend to lie with brk. Just keep an eye out and it should be fine. 

[crs223]

46 minutes ago, RedLion said:

It worries me that everyone is so confident that there will never be anything to worry about at Berkshire. 

 

I’d prefer to own a less worrisome company than BRK.  What do you recommend?

 

 

Edited March 30, 2023 by crs223

[Luca]

2 hours ago, crs223 said:

I don’t know what exactly is a cannibal, but BRK is not indiscriminately buying back stock.  Only when it’s cheap.  And from looking at the month-to-month purchases, “cheap” is not just about the stock price.  WEB must be considering the changing intrinsic value and/or opportunity cost of spending that money.

 

Re BRK CAGRs, for me it’s about trust first and CAGR second.  Right or wrong, I completely trust BRK to do the right thing for me while I’m at work, sleeping, market crashing, or rallying.

 

My preference would be to find a company/fund just as trustworthy but 1,000 times smaller (more CAGRs).  But until that happens I’m with BRK.

 

Based on recommendations here (thank you) I’ll be watching Prosus and Constellation.

I love Prosus, constellation software looks super expensive at first glance? What's the thesis here? 20-30% annual growth for the next years? They need to triple earnings to be valued at almost 25x. Don't see how this is an interesting business at that price.

[thepupil]

1 minute ago, Luca said:

I love Prosus, constellation software looks super expensive at first glance? What's the thesis here? 20-30% annual growth for the next years? They need to triple earnings to be valued at almost 25x. Don't see how this is an interesting business at that price.

 

see below. saying nothing of the go forward (not a company i know well), CSU has quintupled to sextupled most per share fundamental benchmarks over the last decade while almost entirely self funding its growth and without issuing a single share. truly magical. credit due to those who identified early and held. 

 

I on the other hand prefer to invest in far lower quality much more capital intensive businesses at lower returns. 

 

[crs223]

26 minutes ago, Luca said:

I love Prosus, constellation software looks super expensive at first glance? What's the thesis here? 20-30% annual growth for the next years? They need to triple earnings to be valued at almost 25x. Don't see how this is an interesting business at that price.

 

I was really just reminding myself that I want to look into PRX and CSU as trustworthy allocators.  I’m not interested in paying a high P/E.

Edited March 30, 2023 by crs223

[Gregmal]

24 minutes ago, thepupil said:

has quintupled to sextupled most per share fundamental benchmarks over the last decade while almost entirely self funding its growth and without issuing a single share.

Hmmmm. I know one. Especially when you look at say, their 2018 Investor Day material and compare to TTM metrics 5 years later. Or 2013 vs today. Did a little better than not issue a single share either. Reduced shares outstanding by like 35%. But none of it’s real. 

[thepupil]

14 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Hmmmm. I know one. Especially when you look at say, their 2018 Investor Day material and compare to TTM metrics 5 years later. Or 2013 vs today. Did a little better than not issue a single share either. Reduced shares outstanding by like 35%. But none of it’s real. 

 

JOE trades for $2.7B EV. the market clearly ascribes "real value" to it. the stock is up 33%/yr for last 3 years and 18%/yr for last 5, besting the real estate index by 28%/yr over the last 3 and 17%/yr last 5.

 

I'll continue to not understand why you think the market is not assigning "real" value to the company. We can argue it's worth more, but there's no need to continually strawman the thing. 

 

you're a greedy mf'er expecting the market to give us more than that lol.

[StevieV]

2 hours ago, RedLion said:

It worries me that everyone is so confident that there will never be anything to worry about at Berkshire. 

 

Made me laugh.

 

Someone in the thread mentioned an 8-12% range of returns.  I think that's reasonable enough.  Is BRK a more certain index (i.e., you can have more confidence BRK will return 8%+ over time than the SPY) OR single-stock risk without big upside potential?

 

[Spekulatius]

56 minutes ago, crs223 said:

 

I was really just reminding myself that I want to look into PRX and CSU as trustworthy allocators.  I’m not interested in paying a high P/E.

Prosus minus Tencents looks below average to me.

[Gregmal]

22 minutes ago, thepupil said:

 

JOE trades for $2.7B EV. the market clearly ascribes "real value" to it. the stock is up 33%/yr for last 3 years and 18%/yr for last 5, besting the real estate index by 28%/yr over the last 3 and 17%/yr last 5.

 

I'll continue to not understand why you think the market is not assigning "real" value to the company. We can argue it's worth more, but there's no need to continually strawman the thing. 

 

you're a greedy mf'er expecting the market to give us more than that lol.

I mean the market still thinks its a homebuilder lol. Give me some Berkshire at $175k an A share cuz textile mills should trade at 2.5x NTM....Joe trades conservatively at a mid teens multiple of just the income to be generated from like sub 3% of its land holdings over the NTM. Which is growing double digits in perpetuity. 

[Luca]

12 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Prosus minus Tencents looks below average to me.

Thats what they say but they do compounded at a decent IRR without tencent i remember from presentations

[cubsfan]

Nice discussion of BRK here.  I do like a situation where the old man may/will buy back a ton of stock if we have an extended downturn - and still have lots of cash. It is disappointing that the buybacks didn't kick into high gear during the pandemic. But you have to trust the old man when he says there really is just not enough tradable BRK available. 

 

Like a few guys indicate - you either trust Warren or you don't. If you do, seems like a good place for a big pile of money.

[WayWardCloud]

6 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

 

@WayWardCloud,

 

From the "no kids" I perceceive it as if you have a siginificant other. Please accept my deepest and sincere sympathy for living a life with 4 rulers, among them 3 owners of you. 

 

No significant other but you nailed it regarding the cats, John! I have long accepted that my real job on Earth is tuna can opener, everything else is just silly hobbies I have on the side.

 

Back on topic. Thanks everyone for sharing, it's fascinating! I worry a bit when I see similar names coming up in everyone's portfolio (including mine!). The bubble effect is real... As well as the Gregmal halo!

[Parsad]

I think everyone on this thread owns way more stocks than me...I've never owned more than 10 stocks at any one time in my life...currently 6.  They make up 60% of the portfolio...40% cash makes up the rest.  My belief is if you can't put at least 5% of the portfolio in it because of valuation...don't bother putting anything in it.  Cheers!

[Luca]

30 minutes ago, Parsad said:

I think everyone on this thread owns way more stocks than me...I've never owned more than 10 stocks at any one time in my life...currently 6.  They make up 60% of the portfolio...40% cash makes up the rest.  My belief is if you can't put at least 5% of the portfolio in it because of valuation...don't bother putting anything in it.  Cheers!

Then share your portfolio with us :D!!

 

Is it something like BRK, Fairfax, Alphabet, Meta and this Retailer with a Crypto Arm? 

 

Cheers Parsad!

[Parsad]

1 hour ago, Luca said:

Then share your portfolio with us :D!!

 

Is it something like BRK, Fairfax, Alphabet, Meta and this Retailer with a Crypto Arm? 

 

Cheers Parsad!

 

Yes, and SHOP 2025 $35 Calls.  See you didn't even need me to post them!  Cheers!

[Xerxes]

1 hour ago, Parsad said:

 

Yes, and SHOP 2025 $35 Calls.  See you didn't even need me to post them!  Cheers!

 

This is the first time I have seen that the "Cheers!" is not on a new line

Gotcha !

[modiva]

Fairfax and Fairfax India (50), Cash (30), remaining in BRK, PXD, EPSN, BAC, CME

[crs223]

2 hours ago, Xerxes said:

 

This is the first time I have seen that the "Cheers!" is not on a new line

Gotcha !

 

I once saw a cheers-less post. Gregmal was being disciplined over in the Disney thread… 

 

 

[Paarslaars]

13 hours ago, Parsad said:

I think everyone on this thread owns way more stocks than me...I've never owned more than 10 stocks at any one time in my life...currently 6.  They make up 60% of the portfolio...40% cash makes up the rest.  My belief is if you can't put at least 5% of the portfolio in it because of valuation...don't bother putting anything in it.  Cheers!

 

I've been looking into consolidating my portfolio but when I invest into certain events (like banks recovering this year) I tend to spread my investments over a basket rather than a single stock.

 

[GordonGekko69]

The Damn Retailer 35%

0700 3% HK listed Tencent

PRX 4% Amsterdam listed Prosus

3690 1% HK listed Meituan

1658 2% HK listed Postal Savings Bank of China

BAYN 5% German listed Bayer

GOLD 3%

NU 2%

PAH3 6% German listed Porsche SE Holding

PCYO 2%

PDD 4%

SRG 6%

MU 3%

TUI1 1%

ARWR 4%

SLV 4%

Cash 14%

 

Edited March 31, 2023 by GordonGekko69

[Luca]

2 hours ago, GordonGekko69 said:

The Damn Retailer 35%

0700 3% HK listed Tencent

PRX 4% Amsterdam listed Prosus

3690 1% HK listed Meituan

1658 2% HK listed Postal Savings Bank of China

BAYN 5% German listed Bayer

GOLD 3%

NU 2%

PAH3 6% German listed Porsche SE Holding

PCYO 2%

PDD 4%

SRG 6%

MU 3%

TUI1 1%

ARWR 4%

SLV 4%

Cash 14%

 

Nice one, whats your take on Porsche SE, compared to ferrari they are a weaker brand but valuation wise there is a huge difference too? Could you tell me a bit about the thesis? Dividend Growth and transition to e cars/e fuel? How much runway do we have? I am interested in the brand for sure!