How to prosper in the coming deflation.

[Jaygo]

Gimmicky title eh! I should really write a book.

 

IN the event we enter into a period of falling prices over and above the stop in prices rising. Is there an asset class other than bonds/cash that will perform well?

 

Everyone is talking inflation and I just dont see the causes lasting too long. The main causes have pretty much stopped.

 

1. The money supply was increased so prices should rise in tandem with those increases. Stopped

2. Workers were paid to not produce, that is extremely inflationary and has stopped for now.

3. People who were not getting paid or working before got a nice little boost of payments, this was inflationary in common goods like food and drinks, smokes and small discretionary. Stopped but could start again with UBI (god i feel like an asshole saying it, but Sin stocks here we come if we get UBI)

4. Assets inflated quickly due to interest rate policy taking even more people out of the workforce. 

5. China and supply chain issues are healing slowly it seems.

 

 

I'm not saying outright deflation is very likely but i could definitely see a period of a year or two where prices stop increasing and recede at the same time as interest rates remain above what the economy should bare. Why? Well an economy if left to its own devices is actually pretty simple. The more we produce the more there is for everyone and prices trend down as life improves. This was interrupted but that interruption is ending.

 

1. If we go back to pre-covid times the economy in north America was robust but certainly not a runaway train, healthy 2 % growth with interest rates probably belong in the 1-3 % range for our demographics.

 

2. All the talk of deglobalization is probably BS. If china doesn't want to play ball what are the population going to do? China has not shown much global aggression and has stayed regional in their ambitions. Chances are they would like to continue on their modernization and not upset the apple cart. They main concern for the CCP is the billion people who refuse to consume on our level, thus eliminating a internally funded economy, To keep the populace happy ( docile ) the people must be occupied and feel the wealth effect. (just like us) so my guess is Globalization is back and running in no time. 

 

My thinking is Continental North American focused growth stocks take back the drivers seat and we see a serious resurgence in TINA. In the interim I would expect a hell of a bumpy 9 months between the yay inflation is dead to TINA.

 

A prediction worth the paper it written on is that we get back around all time highs by may, then the deflation creeps in and everyone panics until the rates get back to the 0 range. At that point any company that can show growth will be the place to be and we will have another decade like the 2009 - 2019 period of low rates and low to no inflation.

 

As Mr. Dealraker would say "ramblings over coffee"

 

Any ideas on what would perform best in a disinflation , short burst of deflation scenario?

 

 

 

 

[UK]

19 minutes ago, Jaygo said:

Gimmicky title eh! I should really write a book.

 

IN the event we enter into a period of falling prices over and above the stop in prices rising. Is there an asset class other than bonds/cash that will perform well?

 

Everyone is talking inflation and I just dont see the causes lasting too long. The main causes have pretty much stopped.

 

1. The money supply was increased so prices should rise in tandem with those increases. Stopped

2. Workers were paid to not produce, that is extremely inflationary and has stopped for now.

3. People who were not getting paid or working before got a nice little boost of payments, this was inflationary in common goods like food and drinks, smokes and small discretionary. Stopped but could start again with UBI (god i feel like an asshole saying it, but Sin stocks here we come if we get UBI)

4. Assets inflated quickly due to interest rate policy taking even more people out of the workforce. 

5. China and supply chain issues are healing slowly it seems.

 

 

I'm not saying outright deflation is very likely but i could definitely see a period of a year or two where prices stop increasing and recede at the same time as interest rates remain above what the economy should bare. Why? Well an economy if left to its own devices is actually pretty simple. The more we produce the more there is for everyone and prices trend down as life improves. This was interrupted but that interruption is ending.

 

1. If we go back to pre-covid times the economy in north America was robust but certainly not a runaway train, healthy 2 % growth with interest rates probably belong in the 1-3 % range for our demographics.

 

2. All the talk of deglobalization is probably BS. If china doesn't want to play ball what are the population going to do? China has not shown much global aggression and has stayed regional in their ambitions. Chances are they would like to continue on their modernization and not upset the apple cart. They main concern for the CCP is the billion people who refuse to consume on our level, thus eliminating a internally funded economy, To keep the populace happy ( docile ) the people must be occupied and feel the wealth effect. (just like us) so my guess is Globalization is back and running in no time. 

 

My thinking is Continental North American focused growth stocks take back the drivers seat and we see a serious resurgence in TINA. In the interim I would expect a hell of a bumpy 9 months between the yay inflation is dead to TINA.

 

A prediction worth the paper it written on is that we get back around all time highs by may, then the deflation creeps in and everyone panics until the rates get back to the 0 range. At that point any company that can show growth will be the place to be and we will have another decade like the 2009 - 2019 period of low rates and low to no inflation.

 

As Mr. Dealraker would say "ramblings over coffee"

 

Any ideas on what would perform best in a disinflation , short burst of deflation scenario?

 

 

 

 

 

Put at least 1/2 portfolio into growth or value tomorow or long duration companies such as AMZN, GOOGL, META, UMG and even JOE, which went down from 30 to 70 per cent last year. Keep other 1/2 in BRK, FFH and other (financials, energy etc) short duration or value names in case your thesis on deflation is incorrect:)

 

Edited January 13, 2023 by UK

[Jaygo]

so you are saying equities are best for that period of time? Long term i understand that equities are the best but i cant see anything short of bonds or treasuries do well during a period of deflation.

 

I have a finite amount of capital so rather than ride out a storm i try and skip a bit of downside to generally capture more upside. This is usually just switching from US ETF's when times are good to Canadian ETF's when we slow down. This worked well the past few years

 

Over the past month i have sold off a bunch of my Canadian dividend ETF's and moved into VSP but that wont work if we have any sort of deflation

[Spooky]

Amen. This is something I have been thinking about for a while that there are a number of large deflationary forces out there (i.e. the impact of technology, slowing rate of population growth or decline, etc.). Obviously high duration assets like long-term bonds / tech companies will high terminal values will do well (similar to the environment after the financial crisis).

 

I've been also trying to identify other opportunities that will still grow in a deflationary world - things like the amount of information out there is still growing at exponential rates, especially going to be so with the huge amount of AI generated content, so that brings me back to ideas like Google whose mission is to organize this information.

 

I've been thinking a lot about emerging markets recently as well - the developing world's growth doesn't look too hot and the debt levels are quite high (with more and more debt being required for each unit of GDP / output).

 

All this being said I hope that we don't go back to a world of zero interest rates since that is very distorting. We could be in for a period of structurally lower growth / higher interest rates going forward given the macro environment.

[RedLion]

Long term government bonds seem like a great choice as I’m sure there will be QE3.0 if we do end up in a deflationary environment. 

[Jaygo]

If you look at our population pyramid we have the two biggest brackets fighting for the same stuff. This is why real estate is crazy, the older bulge are too young to move from their homes and the younger bulge are making babies and trying to buy homes. 
 

The pyramid will tell you everything you need to know if you know how to read it. 
 

in a decade funeral homes, aging related medicine and whatever people in their 40’s do will be the benefactors

 

Since our pyramid is is pretty tame looking just know that every one percent is 3.7 million people. Or there are about 9 million more 25-39 year olds than age 10-24

[Spooky]

Something I refer to a lot is the following chart which shows all possible states of the world. I still think it is important to come up with a range of probabilities for each scenario and have your portfolio allocated to cover all the bases.

[Kupotea]

I think there are two very important reasons for sticky inflation:

 

1) Tight labour markets due to baby boomers retiring.

2) A long period of underinvestment in commodities + ESG concerns.

 

Hard to see anything resembling deflation unless you solve for those structural issues.

[Gregmal]

Same way you do in any other environment. Drown out the noise and buy shit people cant do without. 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

On 1/13/2023 at 12:46 PM, Spooky said:

Something I refer to a lot is the following chart which shows all possible states of the world. I still think it is important to come up with a range of probabilities for each scenario and have your portfolio allocated to cover all the bases.

 

1. Gold & short term bonds 

2. Commodities & emerging markets 

3. Long term treasuries & cash

4. Developed market equities

 

Ordered from left to right, top to bottom.

 

2021/2022 was obviously inflationary boom period. Since then, inflation has been decelerating and and growth has been decelerating taken us diagonally to the left towards deflationary bust (why I've been advocating for an allocation to cash/duration for a few months now). 

 

My guess is the the govt prints and the Fed eventually pivots - whether that takes us back up to Stagflation or Inflationary Boom is anyones guess, but I'll be buying gold and base commodities/producers if we do get a bust. 

Edited January 15, 2023 by TwoCitiesCapital

[scorpioncapital]

21 hours ago, UK said:

 

Put at least 1/2 portfolio into growth or value tomorow or long duration companies such as AMZN, GOOGL, META, UMG and even JOE, which went down from 30 to 70 per cent last year. Keep other 1/2 in BRK, FFH and other (financials, energy etc) short duration or value names in case your thesis on deflation is incorrect:)

 

 

Or just own BRK - 1 stock as it contains all of the elements mentioned inside it, in a balanced way

 

Regarding that axis chart, seems oil and maybe short term tips fits all 3 quadrants except bottom left, and that seems politically impossible in any country seeking an inflation rate at 2%..even Japan tries to prevent deflationary bust. 

Edited January 14, 2023 by scorpioncapital

[pranay]

On 1/14/2023 at 5:02 AM, scorpioncapital said:

 

Or just own BRK - 1 stock as it contains all of the elements mentioned inside it, in a balanced way

 

Regarding that axis chart, seems oil and maybe short term tips fits all 3 quadrants except bottom left, and that seems politically impossible in any country seeking an inflation rate at 2%..even Japan tries to prevent deflationary bust. 

BRK has a huge key-man risk. I just don't see past success repeating here. In which case it feels better to long SPY LEAPS and roll, while holding cash for some obvious opportunities that show up once in a while.

 

I just buy LEAPS in a 401k, so rolling positions doesn't generate tax.

Edited January 18, 2023 by pranay

[Jaygo]

This is probably best in the brk thread but since I opened the topic I will respond here. 
 

I don’t think brk has much key man risk any more.  It might have headline risk when he passes but Greg is running the operations. Buffett is the goat and built a structure that wins in every way. Greg just needs to make sure the operating businesses are doing well. The investments will take care of themselves. Coke, apple, Amex etc don’t need input from anyone. 
 

If they sold all investments and shrunk itself  via buybacks or a giant return of capital you would be paying under ten times earnings. Buffett in charge or not it’s a safe way to get into American business. 
 

I am interested in the leaps you mentioned but until investing is my day job I’ll let that opportunity pass me by. 

[Luca]

Just to throw in some contrarian view: https://themarket.ch/interview/russell-napier-the-world-will-experience-a-capex-boom-ld.7606

 

In summer of 2020, you predicted that inflation was coming back and that we were looking at a prolonged period of financial repression. We currently experience 8+% inflation in Europe and the US. What’s your assessment today?

 

My forecast is unchanged: This is structural in nature, not cyclical. We are experiencing a fundamental shift in the inner workings of most Western economies. In the past four decades, we have become used to the idea that our economies are guided by free markets. But we are in the process of moving to a system where a large part of the allocation of resources is not left to markets anymore. Mind you, I’m not talking about a command economy or about Marxism, but about an economy where the government plays a significant role in the allocation of capital. The French would call this system «dirigiste». This is nothing new, as it was the system that prevailed from 1939 to 1979. We have just forgotten how it works, because most economists are trained in free market economics, not in history.

 

Why is this shift happening?

 

The main reason is that our debt levels have simply grown too high. Total private and public sector debt in the US is at 290% of GDP. It’s at a whopping 371% in France and above 250% in many other Western economies, including Japan. The Great Recession of 2008 has already made clear to us that this level of debt was way too high.

 

How so?

 

Back in 2008, the world economy came to the brink of a deflationary debt liquidation, where the entire system was at risk crashing down. We’ve known that for years. We can’t stand normal, necessary recessions anymore without fearing a collapse of the system. So the level of debt – private and public – to GDP has to come down, and the easiest way to do that is by increasing the growth rate of nominal GDP. That was the way it was done in the decades after World War II.

 

What has triggered this process now?

 

My structural argument is that the power to control the creation of money has moved from central banks to governments. By issuing state guarantees on bank credit during the Covid crisis, governments have effectively taken over the levers to control the creation of money. Of course, the pushback to my prediction was that this was only a temporary emergency measure to combat the effects of the pandemic. But now we have another emergency, with the war in Ukraine and the energy crisis that comes with it.

 

You mean there is always going to be another emergency?

 

Exactly, which means governments won’t retreat from these policies. Just to give you some statistics on bank loans to corporates within the European Union since February 2020: Out of all the new loans in Germany, 40% are guaranteed by the government. In France, it’s 70% of all new loans, and in Italy it’s over 100%, because they migrate old maturing credit to new, government-guaranteed schemes. Just recently, Germany has come up with a huge new guarantee scheme to cover the effects of the energy crisis. This is the new normal. For the government, credit guarantees are like the magic money tree: the closest thing to free money. They don’t have to issue more government debt, they don’t need to raise taxes, they just issue credit guarantees to the commercial banks.

 

And given that nominal growth consists of real growth plus inflation, the easiest way to do this is through higher inflation?

 

Yes. Engineering a higher nominal GDP growth through a higher structural level of inflation is a proven way to get rid of high levels of debt. That’s exactly how many countries, including the US and the UK, got rid of their debt after World War II. Of course nobody will ever say this officially, and most politicians are probably not even aware of this, but pushing nominal growth through a higher dose of inflation is the desired outcome here. Don’t forget that in many Western economies, total debt to GDP is considerably higher today than it was even after World War II.

 

What level of inflation would do the trick?

 

I think we’ll see consumer price inflation settling into a range between 4 and 6%. Without the energy shock, we would probably be there now. Why 4 to 6%? Because it has to be a level that the government can get away with. Financial repression means stealing money from savers and old people slowly. The slow part is important in order for the pain not to become too apparent. We’re already seeing respected economists and central bankers arguing that inflation should indeed be allowed at a higher level than the 2% target they set in the past. Our frame of reference is already shifting up.

 

Yet at the same time, central banks have turned very hawkish in their fight against inflation. How does that square?

 

We today have a disconnect between the hawkish rhetorics of central banks and the actions of governments. Monetary policy is trying to hit the brakes hard, while fiscal policy tries to mitigate the effects of rising prices through vast payouts. An example: When the German government introduced a €200 bn scheme to protect households and industry from rising energy prices, they’re creating a fiscal stimulus at the same time as the ECB is trying to rein in their monetary policy.

 

Who wins?

 

The government. Did Berlin ask the ECB whether they can create a rescue package? Did any other government ask? No. This is considered emergency finance. No government is asking for permission from the central bank to introduce loan guarantees. They just do it.

 

You’re saying that central banks are powerless?

 

They’re impotent. This is a shift of power that cannot be underestimated. Our whole economic system of the past 40 years was built on the assumption that the growth of credit and therefore broad money in the economy was controlled through the level of interest rates – and that central banks controlled interest rates. But now, when governments take control of private credit creation through the banking system by guaranteeing loans, central banks are pushed out of their role. There’s another way of looking at today’s loud, hawkish rhetoric by central banks: Teddy Roosevelt once said that, in terms of foreign policy, one should speak softly and carry a big stick. What does it tell you when central banks speak loudly? Perhaps that they’re not carrying a big stick anymore.

 

Would that apply to all Western central banks?

 

Certainly to the ECB and definitely to the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan. These countries are already well on their path to financial repression. It will happen in the US, too, but we have a lag there – which is why the dollar is rising so sharply. Investment money flows from Europe and Japan towards America. But there will come a point where it will be too much for the US as well. Watch the level of bond yields. There is a level of bond yields that is just unacceptable for the US, because it would hurt the economy too much. My argument for the past two years was that Europe can’t let rates go up, not even from current levels. The private sector debt service ratio in France is 20%, in Belgium and the Netherlands it’s even higher. It’s 11% in Germany and about 13% in the US. With rising interest rates, it won’t take long until there will be serious pain. So it’s just a matter of time before we all get there, but Europe is at the forefront.

 

Walk us through how this will play out.

 

First, governments directly interfere in the banking sector. By issuing credit guarantees, they effectively take control of the creation of broad money and steer investment where they want it to. Then, the government would aim for a consistently high growth rate of money, but not too high. Again, history shows us the pattern: The UK had five big banks after World War II, and at the beginning of each year the government would tell them by what percentage rate their balance sheet should grow that year. By doing this, you can set the growth rate of broad money and nominal GDP. And if you know that your economy is capable of, say, 2% real growth, you know the rest would be filled by inflation. As a third prerequisite you need a domestic investor base that is captured by the regulatory framework and has to buy your government bonds, regardless of their yield. This way, you prevent bond yields from rising above the rate of inflation. All this is in place today, as many insurance companies and pension funds have no choice but to buy government bonds.

 

You make it sound easy: The government just has to engineer a level of nominal growth and of inflation that is consistently somewhat higher than interest rates in order to shrink the debt to GDP ratio.

 

Again, this is how it was done after World War II. The crucial thing is that we are moving from a mechanism where bank credit is controlled by interest rates to a quantitative mechanism that is politicised. This is the politicisation of credit.

 

What tells you that this is in fact happening today?

 

When I see that we are headed into a significant growth slowdown, even a recession, and bank credit is still growing. The classic definition of a banker used to be that he lends you an umbrella but would take it away at the first sight of rain. Not this time. Banks keep lending, they even reduce their provisions for bad debt. The CFO of Commerzbank was asked about this fact in July, and she said that the government would not allow large debtors to fail. That, to me, was a transformational statement. If you are a banker who believes in private sector credit risk, you stop lending when the economy is headed into a recession. But if you are a banker who believes in government guarantees, you keep lending. This is happening today. Banks keep lending, and nominal GDP will keep growing. That’s why, in nominal terms, we won’t see an economic contraction.

 

Won’t there come a point where the famed bond market vigilantes would step in and demand significantly higher yields on government bonds?

 

I doubt it. First, we already have a captured investor base that just has to buy government bonds. And if push comes to shove, the central bank would step in and prevent yields from rising higher, with the ultimate policy being overt or covert yield curve control.

 

What if central banks don’t want to play along and try to regain control over the creation of money?

 

They could, but in order to do that, they would really have to go to war with their own government. This will be very hard, because the politicians in government will say they are elected to pursue these policies. They are elected to keep energy prices down, elected to fight climate change, elected to invest in defence and to reduce inequality. Arthur Burns, who was the Fed chairman during the Seventies, explained in a speech in 1979 why he lost control of inflation. There was an elected government, he said, elected to fight a war in Vietnam, elected to reduce inequality through Lyndon B. Johnson’s Great Society programs. Burns said it wasn’t his job to stop the war or the Great Society programs. These were political choices.

 

And you say it’s similar today?

 

Yes. People are screaming for energy relief, they want defence from Putin, they want to do something against climate change. People want that, and elected governments claim to follow the will of the people. No central banker will oppose that. After all, many of the things that are associated with financial repression will be quite popular.

 

What’s the endgame of this process, then?

 

We saw the endgame before, and that was the stagflation of the 1970s, when we had high inflation in combination with high unemployment.

 

People are already talking about stagflation today.

 

That’s utter nonsense. They see high inflation and a slowing economy and think that’s stagflation. This is wrong. Stagflation is the combination of high inflation and high unemployment. That’s not what we have today, as we have record low unemployment. You get stagflation after years of badly misallocated capital, which tends to happen when the government interferes for too long in the allocation of capital. When the UK government did this in the 1950s and 60s, they allocated a lot of capital into coal mining, automobile production and the Concorde. It turned out that the UK didn’t have a future in any of those industries, so it was wasted and we ended up with high unemployment.

 

So the endgame will be a 1970s style stagflation, but we’re not there yet?

 

No, not by a long shot. First comes the seemingly benign part, which is driven by a boom in capital investment and high growth in nominal GDP. Many people will like that. Only much later, when we get high inflation and high unemployment, when the scale of misallocated capital manifests itself in a high misery index, will people vote to change the system again. In 1979 and 1980 they voted for Thatcher and Reagan, and they accepted the hard monetary policy of Paul Volcker. But there is a journey to be travelled to get to that point. And don’t forget, by the time Thatcher and Reagan came in, debt to GDP had already come down to new lows. That enabled them to introduce their free market policies, which would probably not have been possible if debt to GDP were much higher. So that’s why we’re in for a long social and political journey. What you have learned in market economics in the past forty years will be useless in the new world. For the next twenty years, you need to get familiar with the concepts of political economy.

 

What will this new world mean for investors?

 

First of all: avoid government bonds. Investors in government debt are the ones who will be robbed slowly. Within equities, there are sectors that will do very well. The great problems we have – energy, climate change, defence, inequality, our dependence on production from China – will all be solved by massive investment. This capex boom could last for a long time. Companies that are geared to this renaissance of capital spending will do well. Gold will do well once people realise that inflation won’t come down to pre-2020 levels but will settle between 4 and 6%. The disappointing performance of gold this year is somewhat clouded by the strong dollar. In yen, euro or sterling, gold has done pretty well already.

[james22]

8 hours ago, Luca said:

First of all: avoid government bonds. Investors in government debt are the ones who will be robbed slowly.

 

Yup.

 

Even though retired, I see no reason to hold bonds today.

[scorpioncapital]

20 minutes ago, james22 said:

 

Yup.

 

Even though retired, I see no reason to hold bonds today.

 

do you consider tips in the same category as they can only 'rob' the portion above what they lie about on CPI? )

 

[Jaygo]

On 1/13/2023 at 9:59 AM, Jaygo said:

2. All the talk of deglobalization is probably BS. If china doesn't want to play ball what are the population going to do? China has not shown much global aggression and has stayed regional in their ambitions. Chances are they would like to continue on their modernization and not upset the apple cart. They main concern for the CCP is the billion people who refuse to consume on our level, thus eliminating a internally funded economy, To keep the populace happy ( docile ) the people must be occupied and feel the wealth effect. (just like us) so my guess is Globalization is back and running in no time. 

 

I'm no political analyst but when you want to keep over a billion people from revolt you need to keep them busy. China needs American consumers for their own political stability. Link to a business friendly china article https://www.politico.eu/article/china-diplomacy-liu-he-europe-beijing-davos-world-economic-forum-xi-jinping/

 

China has exported deflation for 20 years through the Walmart's, Targets and Dollarama's of the world, that stopped during Covid. That engine of deflation is trying to get started again

 

 

[Jaygo]

On 1/13/2023 at 9:59 AM, Jaygo said:

My thinking is Continental North American focused growth stocks take back the drivers seat and we see a serious resurgence in TINA. In the interim I would expect a hell of a bumpy 9 months between the yay inflation is dead to TINA.

 

A prediction worth the paper it written on is that we get back around all time highs by may, then the deflation creeps in and everyone panics until the rates get back to the 0 range. At that point any company that can show growth will be the place to be and we will have another decade like the 2009 - 2019 period of low rates and low to no inflation.

 

As Mr. Dealraker would say "ramblings over coffee"

 

Any ideas on what would perform best in a disinflation , short burst of deflation scenario?

It turns out that after 6 months this was pretty much bang on. The good news is “I was right” the bad news is I did not act accordingly and basically held what worked the year before and has not worked this year to the tune of -7 on the year. 

 

the basis was an expectation of mild deflation and I’m sort of still leaning in that direction however less so than before. I do still think the real economy continues to turn down, in the market we likely have our highs by early summer and fall takes a tumble like so often has.  Time will tell.

[james22]

On 1/18/2023 at 4:50 PM, scorpioncapital said:

do you consider tips in the same category as they can only 'rob' the portion above what they lie about on CPI? )

 

Eh. I just don't see value in holding anything with such a low expected return.

 

I don't care much about volatility.

 

I've a several year cash allocation to live off rather than sell equities when they down significantly (20%).

 

If I was truly convinced of deflation, I might allocate a sliver to something like Vanguard's Extended Duration Treasury ETF (EDV).

 

But even then. I'd more likely consider BAC-L/WFC-L.

[Spooky]

There has been a lot of articles / chatter lately about China potentially heading for deflation. If true it doesn't bode well for global growth. Pretty good podcast with Richard Koo on the topic:

 

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/richard-koo-on-chinas-risk-of-japanification/id1056200096?i=1000620484581

[ValueArb]

I need a new car. Come on deflation!

[Jaygo]

I’m having swimming pool quotes come in 10k cheaper than last year lol. 
 

I didn’t pull the trigger last year as a valuable contract was yet unsigned. Now I have a bumper year out to 2025 so splish splash. 
 

it’s not really deflation per say, but trades being less busy is taking some froth out of the prices that’s for sure. 

Edited July 18, 2023 by Jaygo

[Castanza]

8 hours ago, ValueArb said:

I need a new car. Come on deflation!

In the same boat, depressing isn’t it? 

[Spooky]

I also need a car, been waiting for prices to normalize but it looks like the auto producers have collectively slashed production volume to drive up prices.

[Malmqky]

13 hours ago, ValueArb said:

I need a new car. Come on deflation!

 

Same. Even Camrys are expensive these days!