Insurance Brokers (MMC, AON, AJG, WTW, BRO)

[Castanza]

3 hours ago, dealraker said:

My adds to AON have been 15 times that of what I put into Baldwin.  Wells sees AON as the broker today with the most upside, earnings growth and some multiple expansion.  I'd agree with that, but the stock has moved some.  Post last quarter's earnings the stock went down briefly and Wells was all over it.

 

Again, I know a lot of you (and me too in 99% of instances) have little interest in what a firm like Wells would publish.  But also again, Wells has been "on it" for years.  A good example is their endless chant for years-and-years that AJG was not over-valued but under-valued, the correct analysis proven repeatedly.  They see AJG as still under-valued.

 

They do use cash earnings always and their stuff is always different from most.  AON is seen having $21.60 in cash earnings in 2027 by Wells.

 

Are these Wells reports for clients or are they accessible to anyone? Have been trying to find some to read through to no avail.

[Marco Van Basten]

2 hours ago, Castanza said:

 

Are these Wells reports for clients or are they accessible to anyone? Have been trying to find some to read through to no avail.

If you can get access to bloomberg (some public libraries have it), they are available with a week's delay.  

[dealraker]

6 hours ago, Marco Van Basten said:

If you can get access to bloomberg (some public libraries have it), they are available with a week's delay.  

I have a Wells Fargo Advisors account so I get them there.

[hasilp89]

12 hours ago, Castanza said:

 

Are these Wells reports for clients or are they accessible to anyone? Have been trying to find some to read through to no avail.

pretty sure you can open a wells brokerage put $100 in and get access. same with BAML and JPM (through chase).

 

 

[pricingpower]

18 hours ago, EgonKuhn said:

Has AON been particularly notable in the past for its intensive and successful application of new technologies – similar to, for example, PGR among P&C insurers?

Funny enough I view PGR as going forward the most anti-AI thing I own, they have an existential risk in the form of self driving cars which will eventually significantly reduce losses needing insurance, AI capex mania brings that long tail forward.  The growth of PGR's direct underwriting is a kind of double whammy for the insurance brokers as along with that premium decline there is less need for an intermediary agent.  The stickiness behind retained premium as kind of the engine of the brokers automatic GDP growth also becomes at risk as AI gets good enough to do your risk adjusted price comparison insurance buying for you in more commoditized products like car and home insurance, the barriers to price shopping renewals decrease significantly and advertising should get less powerful.  I'm pretty unclear whether AI is net good for broker profitability, it seems clear there will be stronger scale advantages and an SGA opex benefit but the topline impact seems less knowable?

[dealraker]

Interesting news over at RYAN.

[Marco Van Basten]

7 hours ago, dealraker said:

Interesting news over at RYAN.

You mean the president leaving or something else?

[dealraker]

2 hours ago, Marco Van Basten said:

You mean the president leaving or something else?

Yes.

[Marco Van Basten]

4 minutes ago, dealraker said:

Yes.

What is your read on the situation?  What do you think the impact may be?  Thank you.

[dealraker]

17 minutes ago, Marco Van Basten said:

What is your read on the situation?  What do you think the impact may be?  Thank you.

So he went to non employee "advisor" status at 39.  I've only bought a small amount of RYAN at $51  so that probably isn't festering too much into my guess that something ain't going the way we may be expecting.  

[Spekulatius]

7 hours ago, dealraker said:

So he went to non employee "advisor" status at 39.  I've only bought a small amount of RYAN at $51  so that probably isn't festering too much into my guess that something ain't going the way we may be expecting.  

Jeremiah Bickham was president since October 2024, so he took this position just a year ago. I think it’s likely he was canned.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/jeremiah-bickham-46857321/

 

[dwy000]

24 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Jeremiah Bickham was president since October 2024, so he took this position just a year ago. I think it’s likely he was canned.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/jeremiah-bickham-46857321/

 

Canned in a year usually means: a) major screw up in the business (unlikely in a year with a board overseeing it);  b) pissed off everybody - possible;  c) had an inappropriate affair. 

 

Regardless, its bad for the business and looks bad on the Board that he lasted less than a year. 

[Marco Van Basten]

1 hour ago, dwy000 said:

Canned in a year usually means: a) major screw up in the business (unlikely in a year with a board overseeing it);  b) pissed off everybody - possible;  c) had an inappropriate affair. 

 

Regardless, its bad for the business and looks bad on the Board that he lasted less than a year. 

Given that the chairman bought $15MM worth of shares a few weeks ago, it seems unlikely to be a.)  

[Castanza]

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/business-breakdowns/id1559120677?i=1000702834168
 

Haven’t seen Goosehead mentioned on here in a bit, but when it was mentioned it seemed nobody could quite understand it. I make zero claims there but this was an interesting episode. 

[dwy000]

Boy the market is hating the MMC results - although they didn't seem that bad to me.  Picking up a little more BRO at $88 while I can.

[Spekulatius]

6 hours ago, dwy000 said:

Boy the market is hating the MMC results - although they didn't seem that bad to me.  Picking up a little more BRO at $88 while I can.

Same. I agree MMc’s results weren’t that band. It is ironical that BRO is down more than MMC.

 

I did buy a starter in AON as well.

Edited October 16, 2025 by Spekulatius

[Castanza]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

Same. I agree MMc’s results weren’t that band. It is ironical that BRO is down more than MMC.

 

I did buy a starter in AON as well.

Growth returned to historical averages..brings the whole sector down that’s already near 52 week lows

[dwy000]

4 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Same. I agree MMc’s results weren’t that band. It is ironical that BRO is down more than MMC.

 

I did buy a starter in AON as well.

I'm guessing its because the consulting side outperformed at MMC while the brokerage underperformed.  By a very small amount but the market is priced to perfection right now.

[dealraker]

The weakness in the brokers is long overdue!  Hopefully over time it proves a wise buying time.  Seems to be underwriters too.  

 

Bought AON yesterday.  Traveling and not paying nuch attention.

[Spekulatius]

Bought more BRO and a starter in AON before. The brokers are seeing less organic growth which essentially means we are entering a soft insurance market in some segments (P&C). This is a normal business cycle.

FWIW, if brokers get the flu, the insurance CO’s will get pneumonia.

Edited October 18, 2025 by Spekulatius

[dwy000]

This has been the most benign hurricane season in decades (fingers crossed because its not over yet).  Thats a couple of years in a row and I suspect that rates and over earning capital will push prices down.  There will be some painful lessons if we have a bad season in the next year or two but thats generally the insurance cycle since time began. 

[73 Reds]

10 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

This has been the most benign hurricane season in decades (fingers crossed because its not over yet).  Thats a couple of years in a row and I suspect that rates and over earning capital will push prices down.  There will be some painful lessons if we have a bad season in the next year or two but thats generally the insurance cycle since time began. 

@dwy000 Don't jinx it!  My neighborhood is still half-abandoned since last year's flooding.  One side note on flood insurance; since the Govt. shutdown people have been in a pickle trying to place flood coverage on pending RE transactions.  There have been disputes between buyers and sellers whereas flood coverage is only available through private carriers at several times the going rate and buyers are backing out of purchase contracts as a result.      

[longterminvestor]

Short report on BWIN.  Dated Oct 2024.  

Blue Orca is Short Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc..pdf

[longterminvestor]

BWIN 3Q24 Earnings Call Transcript.pdf

 

see also the conference call transcript refuting some of the allegations.  interesting chatter.  

[dwy000]

48 minutes ago, longterminvestor said:

Short report on BWIN.  Dated Oct 2024.  

Blue Orca is Short Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc..pdf 3.95 MB · 2 downloads

Why do short sellers seem to believe that the longer their report the more valid their argument.  

 

Haven't read it yet but given the stock was well over $50 at the time and its now $23, either they had some valid views or they got really lucky. 

Edited October 19, 2025 by dwy000