gfp Posted February 18 Posted February 18 3 minutes ago, yesman182 said: Where are you seeing that level of insider ownership? Valueline says Pat owns 12% and other directors own 1%. I checked TIKR and saw something similar. You are neglecting to factor in Class B stock. Those are the approximate percentages for insider ownership of class A
yesman182 Posted February 18 Posted February 18 Thanks for that. Do you think that RYAN will execute the buyback they talked about on the call before Pat buys for himself? Seems like if he buys in the open market, then the price does up and RYAN can buyback fewer shares.
Spekulatius Posted February 19 Posted February 19 11 hours ago, yesman182 said: Where are you seeing that level of insider ownership? Valueline says Pat owns 12% and other directors own 1%. I checked TIKR and saw something similar. Pat Ryan owns a lot of LLC units which own B shares. RYAN has ownership structure Thai ant refl$crdd inw hat tikr or other worries show. He owns 83% of B shares which is about 42% of the total outstanding. I also be beleive he is going to buy a chunk.
longterminvestor Posted February 19 Posted February 19 (edited) On 2/17/2026 at 2:59 PM, rogermunibond said: As a broker, your moat walks out the door every night. Isn't a lot of capital tied up in the relationships? I'm gonna give this a go but I may make a mistake cause I'm using accounting words that may/may not be used correctly. The capital is only "tied up" up when Buy Co buys Sell Co's book of business. Buy Co puts the asset on balance sheet as "goodwill". From then on, Buy Co uses Sell Co's revenue to expense payments to employees/producers to service, retain, and hopefully GROW through net new organic business. Buy Co uses Sell Co's revenue to pay for expenses of Sell Co. Buy Co's estimates on growth is where things can leave Earth and go to Mars. If Sell Co shrinks, bad for Buy Co. Write down of goodwill ensues. Recent news was Howden poaches X-Hays employees/producers books of business from BRO. 8 years ago-ish, BRO bought Hays in 2018 for $630M Cash ($605M at close + $25M earnout) / $100M Stock. BRO shareholders diluted slightly at time, BRO's goodwill increased by $456M and with liability of $605M (BRO pulled 100% on revolving bank line to close). Hays employees/producers got paid every time revenue was booked so its clean, in & out. Can not say for sure, however, assume BRO paid back their $630M in the 8 years ($79M per year) using Hays money. Anything after revolver was paid back is cake (forgetting dilution). 2026, Howden poaches Hays employees/producers from BRO. There's capital "I guess" tied up with those employees but not really. BRO says, and I agree, 1/3rd of clients will leave, 1/3rd will stay, and 1/3rd is a toss up/either side has a shot. BRO will get a check as a result of a "admit no wrong doing settlement. Where's the capital employed/invested? There is no capital tied up in customer relationships per say. Its all expense dollars to pay them to stay. And you could say "capital" is tied up in the newly trained producers hired, however thats all expensed and there is no "capital" tied up in a de novo producer. De novo producer makes there money back in 2 years or they are gone (different in each firm but 2 years, you usually can figure out if they can sell or not). So I'd say its net even or slightly net positive for de novo producers. Put another way, if there was a formula to grow de novo producers, Marsh, AON, Willis, BRO, and everyone else would just put money into growing de novo producers and would not buy other firms. Edited February 19 by longterminvestor
rogermunibond Posted February 19 Posted February 19 @longterminvestor thanks for taking the time to explain. in your example, when Howden poaches ex-Hays producers, does BRO take a write down in the goodwill booked from the Hays acquisition? that's capital impairment, permanent value destroyed no?
longterminvestor Posted February 20 Posted February 20 10 hours ago, rogermunibond said: @longterminvestor thanks for taking the time to explain. in your example, when Howden poaches ex-Hays producers, does BRO take a write down in the goodwill booked from the Hays acquisition? that's capital impairment, permanent value destroyed no? Can not say for sure on write down because I don't really track goodwill as an asset on balance sheet. There is no reason to track in an "elevator asset" business. An insurance broker does not trade on book value. Would they write it down? Maybe if its material enough, but "I guess" the write down would be equal to or less than the amount Howden ultimately pays BRO as a settlement for breaking the non-compete clause in the X-BRO employee agreement. So I see it as a wash.
dwy000 Posted February 20 Posted February 20 30 minutes ago, longterminvestor said: Can not say for sure on write down because I don't really track goodwill as an asset on balance sheet. There is no reason to track in an "elevator asset" business. An insurance broker does not trade on book value. Would they write it down? Maybe if its material enough, but "I guess" the write down would be equal to or less than the amount Howden ultimately pays BRO as a settlement for breaking the non-compete clause in the X-BRO employee agreement. So I see it as a wash. Wonder if the writedown will form the basis for the settlement amount. The difference is that the writedown is non cash and the settlement will be cash (albeit for lost future business).
dealraker Posted February 23 Posted February 23 The perfectly obvious (that we all knew was coming): https://www.sicafletcher.com/insurance-brokers-plunge-on-ai-fears
gfp Posted February 24 Posted February 24 No big surprise https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1145038/000114503826000002/xslF345X05/wk-form4_1771971338.xml
Marco Van Basten Posted February 24 Posted February 24 Patrick G Ryan Jr buys 25,865 shares of Ryan Specialty on 02/20/26-02/23/2026 39.94-41.41
dealraker Posted February 27 Posted February 27 FYI Baldwin comments: https://www.businessinsurance.com/baldwin-says-goldilocks-era-for-brokers-is-over/
dwy000 Posted February 27 Posted February 27 7 hours ago, dealraker said: FYI Baldwin comments: https://www.businessinsurance.com/baldwin-says-goldilocks-era-for-brokers-is-over/ Baldwin up 25% on earnings and I have to scratch my head. For the year they had negative operating cash flow of $30m, capex of $40m and payouts of contingent earnouts of $66m. So the underlying business burned thru $70m, they are still paying out large amounts for earlier acquisitions and they had to add another $250m of debt to cover it.
Spekulatius Posted February 28 Posted February 28 I added some more RYAN. I think this guy (and the people he put in place) are the real deal and will do well over time even though I don’t like the structure (tax /LLC). The last quarter however was not good and rightfully caused some of the decline ins hare price.
formthirteen Posted February 28 Posted February 28 18 hours ago, dealraker said: FYI Baldwin comments: https://www.businessinsurance.com/baldwin-says-goldilocks-era-for-brokers-is-over/ Thanks. I had a look at the earnings call transcripts with Claude. The "goldilocks era" is over and a "golden age" might begin: Quote Market headwinds. The call acknowledges a challenging environment: property rate competition, casualty rate declines, meaningful exposure compression in employee benefits (attributed partly to AI-driven workforce transformation in white-collar businesses), and Medicare market disruption. Baldwin characterizes the "Goldilocks era for insurance intermediaries" as over, with conditions now rewarding only firms with true capability and discipline. Quote AI and disintermediation concerns. CEO Trevor Baldwin opens by addressing a major industry sell-off triggered by fears that AI-powered insurance applications would disintermediate brokers, wiping out ~$40 billion in market cap across public broker peers. His core argument is that AI will accelerate a divergence already underway — firms acting as "toll collectors" or transactional middlemen in commoditized lines are vulnerable, while vertically integrated platforms that own distribution, manufacture risk products, and manage risk capital will thrive. He calls it a potential "golden age" for platforms. Quote Carrier reluctance to open APIs. Baldwin argues insurers won't eagerly expose their quoting algorithms to AI-driven chatbots due to concerns about loss ratios, quoting costs (credit checks, data feeds), and quote-to-bind ratios. He suggests carriers would shut down an AI engine that was "redlining on quotes" within 24 hours. Quote Productivity gains from AI internally. Baldwin describes building a proprietary AI orchestration layer called "Gator" and reports early productivity gains of up to 80% in some workflows, including digital agents taking phone calls and binding policies. Their "3B/30 Catalyst" program aims to use AI to drive margin expansion toward a 30% adjusted EBITDA target on $3 billion of revenue. There are so many uncertainties that the market has rightfully punished these stocks short term. It will take some time to sort out the winners and losers. Here are some possible future scenarios for insurance brokers according according to Claude: Quote Power shifts toward those who control proprietary data and product. If AI commoditizes the distribution layer, the scarce resource becomes what you distribute. Platforms that manufacture their own insurance products control pricing, underwriting appetite, and availability. An AI agent can shop the open market, but it can't access a proprietary product that only exists within one platform's ecosystem. This is the same dynamic that played out in streaming — Netflix didn't just distribute content, it made its own, and that's what kept subscribers locked in even as distribution became trivially easy. Quote Carrier behavior reinforces the moat. Carriers face a prisoner's dilemma: if they open APIs to AI comparison tools, they invite a race to the bottom on price and lose control over their loss ratios. The rational response is to restrict open-market access and prefer controlled distribution channels — which is exactly what embedded platforms offer. So carriers have an incentive to deepen relationships with platforms like Baldwin rather than expose themselves to AI-driven quote shopping. This means the "toll collector" brokers don't just lose customers — they lose carrier access too, accelerating their decline. Quote The most directly exposed category is the personal lines comparison and distribution-only brokers — companies whose entire value proposition is helping consumers shop for commoditized products. Think: eHealth (EHTH, ~$140M market cap) and GoHealth (GOCO, ~$61M market cap). These are Medicare-focused digital brokers that essentially match consumers with health plans. Their core function — compare plans, present options, facilitate enrollment — is precisely what an AI agent does. GoHealth is already facing structural headwinds: William Blair downgraded the stock, citing revenue and Medicare submissions below expectations after the company pulled back on new enrollment growth, along with concerns about market headwinds lasting through 2026 and limited progress in diversifying the business model. Yahoo Finance SelectQuote (SLQT, ~$244M market cap) is in a similar position — a phone-and-digital distribution model for life and health insurance that sits squarely in the "toll collector" category Baldwin describes. Quote The highest and most immediate risk sits with distribution-only personal lines brokers (eHealth, GoHealth, SelectQuote), followed by leveraged PE roll-ups without proprietary product or embedded distribution (Acrisure, many mid-tier platforms), then franchise models in commoditized lines (Goosehead), and finally the large incumbents in their non-complex segments. The deepest structural risk — commission compression and channel partner self-sufficiency — threatens everyone, including the platforms that currently look safest, but on a 10-15 year horizon rather than a 2-3 year one. I guess nothing new here that Mr. Market hasn't told us already, AI's impact is overestimated 2-3 years forward, unless your product is a commodity (EHTH), and even large companies with a moat are at risk on a 10-15 year horizon unless they adapt (BRO, AJG), and why wouldn't a smart operator be able to adapt. In other words, AI is just business as usual. Google, Microsoft have already acknowledged this with their YOLO capex increases, and Mr. Market has awarded them, not punished them. Now we just need some more insurance market softening to scare everyone with "AI disruption".
Spekulatius Posted February 28 Posted February 28 (edited) Health and gohealth got already destroyed and it wasnt’t because of AI.. They operate in highly standardized markets and were relying heavily on online marketing for customer acquisitions. Edited March 9 by Spekulatius
longterminvestor Posted March 9 Posted March 9 RYAN trying to pass a law in Florida to make them the exclusive broker for State Insurance Company Citizens Clearing House....gotta love insurance brokers. https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/southeast/2026/02/09/857332.htm
benchmark Posted March 9 Posted March 9 Interesting to see AJG went down 6% today, I don't see any news and it should not correlate with oil/war, i've been selling 3/12 200 puts fwiw.
Junior R Posted March 10 Posted March 10 21 hours ago, benchmark said: Interesting to see AJG went down 6% today, I don't see any news and it should not correlate with oil/war, i've been selling 3/12 200 puts fwiw. any news
gfp Posted March 18 Posted March 18 (edited) AJG had an Investor Day / meeting with management yesterday. The transcript is on Quatr app but I don't know how to link it here. They published a few slides from the CFO to accompany it https://s28.q4cdn.com/872121257/files/doc_downloads/2026/03/17/CFO-Commentary-Q1-2026-IR-Day-FINAL.pdf It is possible the webcast is also available for replay but I haven't tried -> https://investor.ajg.com/events-and-presentations/event-details/2026/Arthur-J-Gallagher--Co-Investor-Meeting-with-Management--2026-ubGGie_JQk/default.aspx Edited March 18 by gfp
benchmark Posted March 18 Posted March 18 6 hours ago, gfp said: AJG had an Investor Day / meeting with management yesterday. The transcript is on Quatr app but I don't know how to link it here. They published a few slides from the CFO to accompany it https://s28.q4cdn.com/872121257/files/doc_downloads/2026/03/17/CFO-Commentary-Q1-2026-IR-Day-FINAL.pdf It is possible the webcast is also available for replay but I haven't tried -> https://investor.ajg.com/events-and-presentations/event-details/2026/Arthur-J-Gallagher--Co-Investor-Meeting-with-Management--2026-ubGGie_JQk/default.aspx seems like nothing changed from their Jan forecast.
dwy000 Posted March 25 Posted March 25 31 minutes ago, Junior R said: what happened to brown and brown today Not just them. Seemingly just another day of the insurance brokers searching for a bottom and failing to find it.
valueventures Posted March 25 Posted March 25 47 minutes ago, Junior R said: what happened to brown and brown today 14 minutes ago, dwy000 said: Not just them. Seemingly just another day of the insurance brokers searching for a bottom and failing to find it.
Junior R Posted March 25 Posted March 25 13 minutes ago, valueventures said: Thanks nothing big than lol
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