COBF Pain Index

[BG2008]

Down 99% for the year because I bought $ARKK calls 

 

People who are really down probably not sharing their pain 

 

Been hiring a couple interns/analysts for the business actually and having a good time mentoring and coaching them 

[backtothebeach]

Down 9% in USD, but up 6% in EUR. Quite the currency tailwind. Pain level 3-4 right now, but stress level about 7, trading too much.

 

I am waiting for the moment to go 50/50 with my currency exposure between USD and EUR by partly hedging the USD holdings. There should be a moment, maybe when the EUR drops below $0.90, that everyone will predict a further extreme drop to $0.50 or something (kind of like they always predict that oil will go to $200 after a big runup...). That should be close to the turning point.

 

[Daniel Deptula]

1 minute ago, BG2008 said:

Down 99% for the year because I bought $ARKK calls 

 

People who are really down probably not sharing their pain 

 

Been hiring a couple interns/analysts for the business actually and having a good time mentoring and coaching them 

I can provide some serious failure, proud owner of $ATUS from 13, have managed to sell a bit though

[BG2008]

Just now, Rustycage said:

I can provide some serious failure, proud owner of $ATUS from 13, have managed to sell a bit though

 

$ATUS has real value to me...as a tax loss harvesting candidate.  

[Sweet]

Greatest fear is a decade or more of stock market underperformance.  I think that possibility is far worse than a sharp contraction in stocks.

 

We are facing particularly strong macro headwinds currently, the likes not seen since the 70s.  
 

Normally when we get a recession rates go down, this time inflation is high, rates are rising and the feds balance sheet is shrinking - all the same time.

 

I would say my pessimism level is high, but there is no choice, you have to be in the market, the optimists are the ones who kill it.  Look at Hussman.

 

 

Edited November 4, 2022 by Sweet

[Castanza]

Up 25% ytd between my Roth accounts 

 

Down 15% in Brokerage 

 

Had some good luck APTS, ATCO…have some drag MSFT…..but overall feel confident with what I own and the prices I’ve paid. Since paying off the house I’ve just been stacking cash and really trying to be patient here. Could end up being an interesting year. There is already some real gems starting to show.

 

pain? Too early in the game to tell 

Edited November 4, 2022 by Castanza

[adesigar]

Pain level - 0.

 

Down about 8-10%. Went into BRK and Cash in 2021. Now at 80% invested. 
Buying more every week and hoping for lower prices on BRK, COST, META, KWEB, DIS, JOE, Banks.

Strong USD is also making international stocks very attractive.

Edited November 4, 2022 by adesigar

[ourkid8]

Pain index = 0

 

I am up 6% YTD.  I had a couple of big wins in RFP and ATCO and started to roll those gains into BAM.  I have ~10% of my portfolio left in ATCO so lots of dry powder to put to work. 

Edited November 5, 2022 by ourkid8

[formthirteen]

Pain index = 0 and hope it stays at zero. YTD about +10-15%.

 

Avoided popular covid stocks & fintwit pumps and mostly avoided tech. Dumped stocks that went down before they crashed (META, BABA, SPOT, some UK small caps, etc.), bought more of what went up. Avoided falling knives and doubling down. Lots of tobacco stocks, but have sold about 50% now.

[tede02]

Maybe a 2. I came into this year with tons of cash. So I've been putting it to work, buying names that I've been looking at for years, notably GOOG, META and TTNDY. I'm down in all but trying to build up positions. Also been buying some fixed income and office REIT that has been hit hard. Yields well above 10%. As always, just struggling with how aggressive to be deploying capital into a falling market. I expect very tough sailing as long as the Fed continues raising rates. Market could be in for a big surprise on the downside if inflation stays hot and Fed Funds were to go to 5%+. Really tough to predict. 

 

Frankly, I don't want to ever put myself in a position where my pain index is over 4 or 5. I've always been conservative with debt and have learned my lesson being overly concentrated. Also, I was right in the middle of a big real estate transaction when the pandemic hit. Despite having a strong balance sheet and a decent amount of cash at the time, I briefly felt naked in March of 2020. As a result, I told my wife, I don't ever want to be in that kind of situation again. Consequently, I have, and probably always will, 2+ years of living expenses in cash/high quality fixed income. 

Edited November 4, 2022 by tede02

[james22]

The drop has allowed me to Roth convert more shares than I otherwise would have been able to, so there's that.

[Paarslaars]

Up 10% YTD, though down 10% from ATH in March.

Pain level 2 (yeah should be zero but I'm really kicking myself for my BABA calls).

Fully invested.

 

Have a huge cash flow coming in early next year from a house sale which will double my existing portfolio.

So I'm really hoping we get a huge drop by then. ^^

Edited November 4, 2022 by Paarslaars

[RichardGibbons]

Pain level 3. 

 

I'm up about 21% this year, but down about 25% from my 52-week-high, I think (I don't keep track of highs.) This is an anomalous outcome compared to my history--while I wouldn't match the market, I'm typically in the same ballpark.

 

Most of the gains have been in fertilizer, currency exchange, and short-term trades in energy and Chinese tech. Most of the losses have been in other tech.

[Gamecock-YT]

My best barometer for pain index is to cruise on over to r/wallstreetbets and see how they are getting along. Then of course if we get the VIX over 35, ideally 40. Until then just twiddling my thumbs. Have about 33% sitting in tbills that is my 'in case of fire, break glass'.

[UK]

On 11/3/2022 at 11:55 PM, Parsad said:

I'm always restless when markets are like this.  Like a kid waiting for Christmas morning.  I go to bed really late because I'm reading, and then wake up after just a few hours of sleep to see what is happening in the markets and put any orders in.  Cheers!

 

This is exactly how I feel too. Excited, probably to much or to early or both:). Only I try to sleep longer, few hours does not work for me in a longer term:). I had more pain earlier this year and after unsuccessful "trip" with china, by dumb luck in timing, in the summer I was back to mostly BRK and cash in my portfolio. Usually I am fully invested or use some leverage and only if markets are really crazy I would go to no more than 1/3 cash and some defensive, not very overvalued things (this happens very rarely) . BRK usually fits that well, I do not remember it to be overvalued since after GFC. Changing mind in summer on China was still very painful since I took risk and waited for better exit prices than was immediately after Russian invasion. I have never owned any FANG (only AAPL indirectly through BRK) before (only similarly "long duration" non tech companies), but in general am very biased to owning them (no leverage, diversified globally, pricing power, high roe etc), so now I am in a process in spending my cash on these kind of companies (e.g. UMG, GOOGL, META etc). If Prem is right and they will have fall another 50 per cent (as from CC), then again, not for the first time, I am too early. I am EUR based, so also have this strong USD benefit this year (possible problem in the future) and not sure what to do about this. Also we have a crazy (probably temporary) situation with RE prices where I live since they are still like 20+ per cent up from a year ago. In 2008 they also lagged stock market substantially and it was an opportunity then and perhaps even more is now. This time residential RE prices are especially distorted (for the benefit at this point in time) because of war in Ukraine. We were quite used to this, but suddenly it is like half of people around you are either from Belarus, Ukraine or Russia itself. However much more painful or harder to make any moves in RE, than in stocks, but I feel some pain from just watching and not doing anything about this:)

 

UK

 

 

Edited November 5, 2022 by UK

[SharperDingaan]

Always the outlier .. it's been another very good year YTD.

 

All our O/G is again up 100%+ (PD, ESI, OBE, WCP, CET, CVE-W, etc.), we have done 2 round trips that were both successful, and we have successfully taken big chunks of cash off the table.  Even our vodka/caviar trade has done very well. Lost a little on basic crypto, and fixed income, but we'll more than get it back later. 

 

Much of this is legacy carry forward on positions that were established a long time ago; at the time when we were ridiculed. Round trips and dividend income, have further added to the pile. Pain index of maybe 2.5; primarily from the risk on our UK property development, and the magnitude of a 10% drop in the value of our portfolio. We don't hedge. 

 

We're finally seeing some developing utilities opportunities outside of the O/G space, and will hopefully see a lot more in Q1-Q2 with the rise in interest rates. Everything from retirement homes, through to small business robotics, crypto applications, and busses. Ideally we will be able to restock with new vintages, reduce our o/g exposure < 35% again via a variety of convertible debs and warrants, and make another sizeable capital repatriation to bring us back to optimal size. Sometime over the next 18-48 months we should also see a CAD CBDC, and better visibility into robotics/crypto apps. 

 

SD 

 

Edited November 6, 2022 by SharperDingaan