India

[Dinar]

5 minutes ago, Haryana said:

 

what is your opinion on Japan, is Japan less nationalistic than China/India?

 

Japan is a declining power that depends on the US, so their nationalism is not a threat to the US.

[Haryana]

2 minutes ago, Dinar said:

Japan is a declining power that depends on the US, so their nationalism is not a threat to the US.

 

Currently, the nationalism of China is appearing to become a threat so the USA appears to be diversifying supply from India.

 

By the time, nationalism of India appears to become a threat, China could be declining and USA could diversify to Indonesia.

 

[Spekulatius]

5 hours ago, Haryana said:

 

Currently, the nationalism of China is appearing to become a threat so the USA appears to be diversifying supply from India.

 

By the time, nationalism of India appears to become a threat, China could be declining and USA could diversify to Indonesia.

 

India is a democracy, China is an autocracy. That’s the big difference. I also think that India is much more likely to become a superpower than China, mostly because of demographics, but also because a democratic system over the longer term beats autocracies.

[Luke]

11 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

India is a democracy, China is an autocracy. That’s the big difference. I also think that India is much more likely to become a superpower than China, mostly because of demographics, but also because a democratic system over the longer term beats autocracies.

@Spekulatius Do you think the US is a democracy too? I feel like we are getting blinded by this word. 

 

I remember this study by Princeton>

 

https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/perspectives-on-politics/article/testing-theories-of-american-politics-elites-interest-groups-and-average-citizens/62327F513959D0A304D4893B382B992B#

 

 

 

 

Clearly, when one holds constant net interest-group alignments and the preferences of affluent Americans, it makes very little difference what the general public thinks. The probability of policy change is nearly the same (around 0.3) whether a tiny minority or a large majority of average citizens favor a proposed policy change (refer to the top panel of figure 1).

 

Furthermore, the preferences of economic elites (as measured by our proxy, the preferences of “affluent” citizens) have far more independent impact upon policy change than the preferences of average citizens do. To be sure, this does not mean that ordinary citizens always lose out; they fairly often get the policies they favor, but only because those policies happen also to be preferred by the economically-elite citizens who wield the actual influence.

 

What do our findings say about democracy in America? They certainly constitute troubling news for advocates of “populistic” democracy, who want governments to respond primarily or exclusively to the policy preferences of their citizens. In the United States, our findings indicate, the majority does not rule—at least not in the causal sense of actually determining policy outcomes. When a majority of citizens disagrees with economic elites or with organized interests, they generally lose. Moreover, because of the strong status quo bias built into the U.S. political system, even when fairly large majorities of Americans favor policy change, they generally do not get it.

Edited June 27, 2023 by Luca

[Luke]

China, Russia etc know very well that if they would implement a democracy, US capital and intelligence would just come into the country and try to install leadership that does what the US wants. Thats why the US hates China, not because they are hurting people in concentration camps but because they can not be controlled. So whenever i hear the hate on authoritarian leadership, i often cringe because we have exactly that as well in western nations, just hidden. Its already bought and paid for.

[adesigar]

I guess some people think that the US has installed leadership in all other democratic countries like Europe/Canada/Japan/Australia/India etc.

 

The US doesn’t hate China. Some people seem to think that the CCP and China are one and the same but they are not. 

[cheapguy]

>Time will tell whether that will be good for the US and Europe.   India seems to me no less nationalistic and protectionist than China.  

 

Can you write more on being nationalistic.

Edited June 28, 2023 by cheapguy

[Luke]

2 hours ago, adesigar said:

I guess some people think that the US has installed leadership in all other democratic countries like Europe/Canada/Japan/Australia/India etc.

 

The US doesn’t hate China. Some people seem to think that the CCP and China are one and the same but they are not. 

Wouldnt have been the first time: 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/poverty-matters/2011/jan/17/patrice-lumumba-50th-anniversary-assassination

 

 

When the atrocities related to brutal economic exploitation in Leopold's Congo Free State resulted in millions of fatalities, the US joined other world powers to force Belgium to take over the country as a regular colony. And it was during the colonial period that the US acquired a strategic stake in the enormous natural wealth of the Congo, following its use of the uranium from Congolese mines to manufacture the first atomic weapons, the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombs.

 

With the outbreak of the cold war, it was inevitable that the US and its western allies would not be prepared to let Africans have effective control over strategic raw materials, lest these fall in the hands of their enemies in the Soviet camp. It is in this regard that Patrice Lumumba's determination to achieve genuine independence and to have full control over Congo's resources in order to utilise them to improve the living conditions of our people was perceived as a threat to western interests. To fight him, the US and Belgium used all the tools and resources at their disposal, including the United Nations secretariat, under Dag Hammarskjöld and Ralph Bunche, to buy the support of Lumumba's Congolese rivals , and hired killers.

 

Trying to prevent Independence of the Kongo, the country with the richest mineral depot of africa...

 

You cant even make this shit up...

[Luke]

2 hours ago, adesigar said:

The US doesn’t hate China. Some people seem to think that the CCP and China are one and the same but they are not. 

The US also didnt hate the congo, but the leadership didnt do what they wanted so they had to kill him and remove him. 

 

 

Edited June 28, 2023 by Luca

[RetroRanger]

I still dont understand why India seems to be the solution to everything. Despite beeing democratic, there are a lot of conflicts in the country ( religious, fraud and corrupt politicans and institutions, murdered politicans) . They have their own unresolved Taiwan with Pakistan. That is still unresolved and in the 70s their was some atomic testing to provoce each other. 

 

Also the country has big problems with labor. Because of their huge population they need many talent by their own, but the skilled once migrate elsewhere or are used for foreigner treatment ( good doctors prefer international people ). 

 

I currently read many books on India and this is a country that never has been very stable ( partly thanks to UK .... ) ! Perhaps i am underestimating the potential, but there is still a lot to proof and a lot to happen to make India work ( as a country and therefore stable partner ). 

[Viking]

28 minutes ago, RetroRanger said:

I still dont understand why India seems to be the solution to everything. Despite beeing democratic, there are a lot of conflicts in the country ( religious, fraud and corrupt politicans and institutions, murdered politicans) . They have their own unresolved Taiwan with Pakistan. That is still unresolved and in the 70s their was some atomic testing to provoce each other. 

 

Also the country has big problems with labor. Because of their huge population they need many talent by their own, but the skilled once migrate elsewhere or are used for foreigner treatment ( good doctors prefer international people ). 

 

I currently read many books on India and this is a country that never has been very stable ( partly thanks to UK .... ) ! Perhaps i am underestimating the potential, but there is still a lot to proof and a lot to happen to make India work ( as a country and therefore stable partner ). 

I don’t think India is the ‘solution to everything’. Rather, it is well positioned right now. Lots of tail winds. So this should lead to above trend economic growth in the coming years. India is a developing economy… so yes, lots of issues need to be sorted out. Just like every other country at a similar stage of development. Pakistan is a sovereign country so i am not sure how it compares to Taiwan. Bottom line, i hope India figures it out. Prosperity is a good thing. 

[ICUMD]

41 minutes ago, RetroRanger said:

I still dont understand why India seems to be the solution to everything. Despite beeing democratic, there are a lot of conflicts in the country ( religious, fraud and corrupt politicans and institutions, murdered politicans) . They have their own unresolved Taiwan with Pakistan. That is still unresolved and in the 70s their was some atomic testing to provoce each other. 

 

Also the country has big problems with labor. Because of their huge population they need many talent by their own, but the skilled once migrate elsewhere or are used for foreigner treatment ( good doctors prefer international people ). 

 

I currently read many books on India and this is a country that never has been very stable ( partly thanks to UK .... ) ! Perhaps i am underestimating the potential, but there is still a lot to proof and a lot to happen to make India work ( as a country and therefore stable partner ). 

 

I may be biased since I am a first generation Indo Canadian, but IMO:

 

For countries and economies to grow, they need a large and effective workforce. (1+ billion people ). Secondly, they need access to education for upward mobility. (Internet) Thirdly, they need leadership and hope. (Modi, despite his criticisms)

 

India is well positioned in all three regards. Internet and connectivity has given opportunity to millions of young Indians to learn how to improve their quality of life. Imagine villagers now having the tools to earn spots in top educational institutions and help act as inspiration for the next generation.

 

Skilled Indian diaspora are ambassadors and mentors for people in the homeland. For instance, I'm sure Sundar Pichai has inspired millions in terms of what can be achieved.

 

Personally, I don't think the politics of a few will suffocate the struggle of many. 

[RetroRanger]

52 minutes ago, Viking said:

I don’t think India is the ‘solution to everything’. Rather, it is well positioned right now. Lots of tail winds. So this should lead to above trend economic growth in the coming years. India is a developing economy… so yes, lots of issues need to be sorted out. Just like every other country at a similar stage of development. Pakistan is a sovereign country so i am not sure how it compares to Taiwan. Bottom line, i hope India figures it out. Prosperity is a good thing. 

 

I mean it from a conflict perspective. Both Pakistan and India want the Kashmir region for them. Pakistan is in a enduring conflict about the right ownership, which peaked in the 70s with nuclear threats. This is still unresolved. 

https://www.everycrsreport.com/reports/98-570.html

 

"Internet and connectivity has given opportunity to millions of young Indians to learn how to improve their quality of life"

Yes and still so many roads need to be build, people have internet but no water pipe in their village ( as an extreme example).

 

"Personally, I don't think the politics of a few will suffocate the struggle of many. "

I really hope so, in the book i have read there talked about many religious assaults an attacks and besides politically saying they are equal , its not in practice . An that in the recent time ( 20-30 years).

And their is the caste system .. which is more like a mid evil system.

 

 

 

 

Edited June 28, 2023 by RetroRanger

[ICUMD]

@RetroRanger yes roads, pipes are infrastructure that need to be developed, and will provide compounding GDP benefits as they become established.  A tremendous opportunity as I see it to bring millions 'online'

 

Geopolitical conflict will always be there. Most countries have armies and politicians to protect their territorial rights. 

 

Caste system-  education is the best way to level a playing field and allow upward mobility.  In fact, even in North America, there is an informal caste system.  Don't children of actors and actresses follow in their parents footsteps? A Rockefeller or Hilton inherit millions or billions while being 'socialites'? A Trudeau become prime minister even though he's a drama teacher?  Aren't Natives and Blacks unduly persecuted?  

 

Yet, many more people from humble beginnings can rise to power both in India and N. America:  like Modi. Like Pichai.

Edited June 28, 2023 by ICUMD

[RetroRanger]

50 minutes ago, ICUMD said:

@RetroRanger yes roads, pipes are infrastructure that need to be developed, and will provide compounding GDP benefits as they become established.  A tremendous opportunity as I see it to bring millions 'online'

 

Geopolitical conflict will always be there. Most countries have armies and politicians to protect their territorial rights. 

 

Caste system-  education is the best way to level a playing field and allow upward mobility.  In fact, even in North America, there is an informal caste system.  Don't children of actors and actresses follow in their parents footsteps? A Rockefeller or Hilton inherit millions or billions while being 'socialites'? A Trudeau become prime minister even though he's a drama teacher?  Aren't Natives and Blacks unduly persecuted?  

 

Yet, many more people from humble beginnings can rise to power both in India and N. America:  like Modi. Like Pichai.

 

Youre obviously right in terms of caste system. Probably this exists everywhere. craftmanship in germany was at my youth seen as a "low IQ business" so we should "study" and people who studied would have a higher "reputation". 

 

But to be fair it it not as strict/extreme as in India atm, with people cannot marry into different caste systems ( at least its hard) etc. 

 

Education will be key. On of the prime things Mohnish Pabrai with his Dakshana Foundation is fighting. 

Edited June 28, 2023 by RetroRanger

[rohitc99]

5 hours ago, RetroRanger said:

I still dont understand why India seems to be the solution to everything. Despite beeing democratic, there are a lot of conflicts in the country ( religious, fraud and corrupt politicans and institutions, murdered politicans) . They have their own unresolved Taiwan with Pakistan. That is still unresolved and in the 70s their was some atomic testing to provoce each other. 

 

Also the country has big problems with labor. Because of their huge population they need many talent by their own, but the skilled once migrate elsewhere or are used for foreigner treatment ( good doctors prefer international people ). 

 

I currently read many books on India and this is a country that never has been very stable ( partly thanks to UK .... ) ! Perhaps i am underestimating the potential, but there is still a lot to proof and a lot to happen to make India work ( as a country and therefore stable partner ). 

Why does India have to be a solution for anything. Like all other countries, they are doing what is best for them (finally !!)

 

They have done ok in the past inspite of all kinds of bad policies and all no existent infrastructure. 

 

I am from India, grew up there and moved to the US 20 yrs back. Still have my roots there and visit quite often. Not sure what the country not being stable means ? 70+ years of democracy, no coups, people get to vote. freedom of speech and action (maybe not as much as some countries in the west)

 

Somehow the view from far appears more chaotic than the reality.

[rohitc99]

The amount of infrastructure build out happening in india is enormous. Metros in 70+ cities, highways, bridges, airports, railways, electrification. Water for all. There is a lot which is happening which is not reported in the media in the west which is still backward looking

 

you can check some of the infrastructure companies in the country to see how they are doing to get a feel

 

[Xerxes]

 

Kashmir’ is very much Pakistan/India’ Taiwan. The pillar upon which their foreign policy and their relationship toward each other has been shaped. IMHO. 
 

There was once upon time an East Pakistan, lost forever (to Pakistan government that is), and now called Bangladesh as a sovereign state. 
 

[Xerxes]

5 hours ago, Luca said:

The US also didnt hate the congo, but the leadership didnt do what they wanted so they had to kill him and remove him. 

 

 

Luca. 
 

By now you should know that whenever West does something stupid (coup d’état, invasions, etc) the next generation in the West usually has a hard time remembering. They “file it” under “ohh that was the Cold War so it was ok” and move on some other fun things. 
 

Don’t fight it. There is no use. 

[RetroRanger]

"70+ years of democracy, no coups, people get to vote. freedom of speech and action (maybe not as much as some countries in the west)"

 

yes sorry my knowlegde is just book knowlegde and i agree this can be more dramatic, since much information over years is shrinked into 200 pages.  I meant the amount of political murdering since 1920 ( people were elected 6 months there , beeing murdered ) is insane. Corruption was a heavy topic despite beeing democratic. Also the long fight for indepency (against UK , etc). Religious murdering ( the train incident in Mumbai 2010). 

 

I agree, perhaps sounds shrinked down very chaotic, and the reality is not that dramatic in every day India. 

 

[rohitc99]

The funny thing is i get to hear about their views of US from my family in India and they assume that there are shootings all the time, everywhere. There is a fire or hurricane or some craziness in Washington all the time 

 

Ofcourse the amazing amount of innovation and work never gets reported. and most people have normal lives and go about their day

 

Same for india - only the drama gets reported. the conflict with pakistan is more like a proxy fight between india and china now and hardly impacts the economy or the day to day life

 

The key change most indians have yearned for is access to better quality of life which is now improving very rapidly at the ground level. for years, nothing happened and now whenever i visit, i can see change. In the past, emigrating to the west was a ticket to a better life. That started changing 10 yrs back and i know a lot of bright people feel staying put and doing a startup is a better option

 

that said, tolerance in the society is down for sure

[Haryana]

Not nuclear, the future is Solar.

 

 

[Haryana]

Bank Giant Bigger Than Morgan Stanley Arises From India Merger

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-30/india-s-hdfc-vaults-into-ranks-of-world-s-most-valuable-banks

"

HDFC surges ahead of banks including HSBC Holdings Plc and Citigroup Inc. The bank will also leave behind its Indian peers State Bank of India and ICICI Bank, with market capitalizations of about $62 billion and $79 billion, respectively, as of June 22. 

“Worldwide there are very few banks, which can at this scale and size, still aspire to double over a period of four years,” Suresh Ganapathy, head of financial services research for India at Macquarie Group Ltd.’s brokerage unit, said in a Bloomberg TV interview. The bank expects to grow at 18% to 20%, there is very good visibility in earnings growth, and they plan to double their branches in the next four years, he said. “HDFC Bank will remain a pretty formidable institution.”

"

[adesigar]

On 7/3/2023 at 12:21 AM, Haryana said:

Bank Giant Bigger Than Morgan Stanley Arises From India Merger

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-30/india-s-hdfc-vaults-into-ranks-of-world-s-most-valuable-banks

"

HDFC surges ahead of banks including HSBC Holdings Plc and Citigroup Inc. The bank will also leave behind its Indian peers State Bank of India and ICICI Bank, with market capitalizations of about $62 billion and $79 billion, respectively, as of June 22. 

“Worldwide there are very few banks, which can at this scale and size, still aspire to double over a period of four years,” Suresh Ganapathy, head of financial services research for India at Macquarie Group Ltd.’s brokerage unit, said in a Bloomberg TV interview. The bank expects to grow at 18% to 20%, there is very good visibility in earnings growth, and they plan to double their branches in the next four years, he said. “HDFC Bank will remain a pretty formidable institution.”

"

 

Best Bank in India. I remember when my parents bought this at the IPO. Its probably one of the best investments they ever made. 

Edited July 5, 2023 by adesigar

[Haryana]

India’s stock market is hitting record highs

https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/28/investing/india-stock-market-boom/index.html

 

"

India’s stock market is booming as investors take a chance on one of the few bright spots in a fragile global economy.

The country’s stocks are so hot that India is now home to the world’s fourth most valuable equity market, behind only the United States, China and Japan.

"